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General circulation models (GCMs) are the foundation of weather and climate prediction1,2. GCMs are physics-based simulators that combine a numerical solver for large-scale dynamics with tuned representations for small-scale processes such as cloud formation. Recently, machine-learning models trained on reanalysis data have achieved comparable or better skill than GCMs for deterministic weather forecasting3,4. However, these models have not demonstrated improved ensemble forecasts, or shown sufficient stability for long-term weather and climate simulations. Here we present a GCM that combines a differentiable solver for atmospheric dynamics with machine-learning components and show that it can generate forecasts of deterministic weather, ensemble weather and climate on par with the best machine-learning and physics-based methods. NeuralGCM is competitive with machine-learning models for one- to ten-day forecasts, and with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction for one- to fifteen-day forecasts. With prescribed sea surface temperature, NeuralGCM can accurately track climate metrics for multiple decades, and climate forecasts with 140-kilometre resolution show emergent phenomena such as realistic frequency and trajectories of tropical cyclones. For both weather and climate, our approach offers orders of magnitude computational savings over conventional GCMs, although our model does not extrapolate to substantially different future climates. Our results show that end-to-end deep learning is compatible with tasks performed by conventional GCMs and can enhance the large-scale physical simulations that are essential for understanding and predicting the Earth system.
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BACKGROUND: Patients with refractory, symptomatic left ventricular (LV) mid-cavity obstructive (LVMCO) hypertrophic cardiomyopathy have few therapeutic options. Right ventricular pacing is associated with modest hemodynamic and symptomatic improvement, and LV pacing pilot data suggest therapeutic potential. We hypothesized that site-specific pacing would reduce LVMCO gradients and improve symptoms. METHODS: Patients with symptomatic-drug-refractory LVMCO were recruited for a randomized, blinded trial of personalized prescription of pacing (PPoP). Multiple LV and apical right ventricular pacing sites were assessed during an invasive hemodynamic study of multisite pacing. Patient-specific pacing-site and atrioventricular delays, defining PPoP, were selected on the basis of LVMCO gradient reduction and acceptable pacing parameters. Patients were randomized to 6 months of active PPoP or backup pacing in a crossover design. The primary outcome examined invasive gradient change with best-site pacing. Secondary outcomes assessed quality of life and exercise following randomization to PPoP. RESULTS: A total of 17 patients were recruited; 16 of whom met primary end points. Baseline New York Heart Association was 3±0.6, despite optimal medical therapy. Hemodynamic effects were assessed during pacing at the right ventricular apex and at a mean of 8 LV sites. The gradients in all 16 patients fell with pacing, with maximum gradient reduction achieved via LV pacing in 14 (88%) patients and right ventricular apex in 2. The mean baseline gradient of 80±29 mmâ Hg fell to 31±21 mmâ Hg with best-site pacing, a 60% reduction (P<0.0001). One cardiac vein perforation occurred in 1 case, and 15 subjects entered crossover; 2 withdrawals occurred during crossover. Of the 13 completing crossover, 9 (69%) chose active pacing in PPoP configuration as preferred setting. PPoP was associated with improved 6-minute walking test performance (328.5±99.9 versus 285.8±105.5 m; P=0.018); other outcome measures also indicated benefit with PPoP. CONCLUSIONS: In a randomized placebo-controlled trial, PPoP reduces obstruction and improves exercise performance in severely symptomatic patients with LVMCO. REGISTRATION: URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov/study; Unique Identifier: NCT03450252.
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Estimulación Cardíaca Artificial , Cardiomiopatía Hipertrófica , Estudios Cruzados , Función Ventricular Izquierda , Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , Estimulación Cardíaca Artificial/métodos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Cardiomiopatía Hipertrófica/terapia , Cardiomiopatía Hipertrófica/fisiopatología , Cardiomiopatía Hipertrófica/diagnóstico , Resultado del Tratamiento , Anciano , Calidad de Vida , Factores de Tiempo , Hemodinámica , Obstrucción del Flujo Ventricular Externo/fisiopatología , Obstrucción del Flujo Ventricular Externo/terapia , Obstrucción del Flujo Ventricular Externo/diagnóstico , Tolerancia al Ejercicio , Función Ventricular Derecha , Recuperación de la FunciónRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Hearing loss is prevalent and consequential but under-diagnosed and managed. The Medicare Annual Wellness Visit (AWV) health risk assessment elicits patient-reported hearing concerns but whether such information affects documentation, diagnosis, or referral is unknown. METHODS: We use 5 years of electronic medical record (EMR) data (2017-2022) for a sample of 13,776 older primary care patients. We identify the first (index) AWV indication of hearing concerns and existing and subsequent hearing loss EMR diagnoses (visit diagnoses or problem list diagnoses) and audiology referrals. For a 20% random sample of AWV notes (n = 474) we compared hearing loss EMR diagnoses to documentation of (1) hearing concerns, (2) hearing loss/aid use, and (3) referrals for hearing care. RESULTS: Of 3845 (27.9%) older adults who identified hearing concerns (mean age 79.1 years, 57% female, 75% white) 24% had an existing hearing diagnosis recorded. Among 474 patients with AWV clinical notes reviewed, 90 (19%) had an existing hearing loss diagnosis. Clinicians were more likely to document hearing concerns or hearing loss/aid use for those with (vs. without) an existing EMR diagnosis (50.6% vs. 35.9%, p = 0.01; 68.9% vs. 37.5%, p < 0.001, respectively). EMR diagnoses of hearing loss were recorded for no more than 40% of those with indicated hearing concerns. Among those without prior diagnosis 38 (9.9%) received a hearing care referral within 1 month. Subgroup analysis suggest greater likelihood of documenting hearing concerns for patients age 80+ (OR:1.51, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03, 2.19) and decreased likelihood of documenting known hearing loss among patients with more chronic conditions (OR: 0.49, 95% CI: 0.27, 0.9), with no differences observed by race. CONCLUSION: Documentation of hearing loss in EMR and AWV clinical notes is limited among older adults with subjective hearing concerns. Systematic support and incorporation of hearing into EMR and clinical notes may increase hearing loss visibility by care teams.
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Care partners are crucial to supporting the complex health needs of older adults with dementia, but they are not systematically identified in care delivery. As part of a real-world implementation project in geriatric primary care, we adapted a portal-based agenda setting intervention, OurNotes, by incorporating items to help care partners self-identify. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with care partners (N = 15) who completed the adapted OurNotes to explore their perceptions of the tool (usability, benefits, and challenges) and recommendations for refinement. The data were analyzed using thematic analysis. Benefits included enhancing care partners' preparedness for the visit and opening a direct channel to express concerns about patients' cognition and memory loss to clinicians. Challenges pertained to clinician responsiveness; recommendations focused on enabling the submitted OurNotes responses to be edited and updated by multiple care partners. Such refinements may help to maximize the impact of adapted OurNotes' and potential for future implementation and dissemination.
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Introduction: Consumer-oriented health information technologies (CHIT) such as the patient portal have a growing role in care delivery redesign initiatives such as the Learning Health System. Care partners commonly navigate CHIT demands alongside persons with complex health and social needs, but their role is not well specified. Methods: We assemble evidence and concepts from the literature describing interpersonal communication, relational coordination theory, and systems-thinking to develop an integrative framework describing the care partner's role in applied CHIT innovations. Our framework describes pathways through which systematic engagement of the care partner affects longitudinal work processes and multi-level outcomes relevant to Learning Health Systems. Results: Our framework is grounded in relational coordination, an emerging theory for understanding the dynamics of coordinating work that emphasizes role-based relationships and communication, and the Systems Engineering Initiative for Patient Safety (SEIPS) model. Cross-cutting work systems geared toward explicit and purposeful support of the care partner role through CHIT may advance work processes by promoting frequent, timely, accurate, problem-solving communication, reinforced by shared goals, shared knowledge, and mutual respect between patients, care partners, and care team. We further contend that systematic engagement of the care partner in longitudinal work processes exerts beneficial effects on care delivery experiences and efficiencies at both individual and organizational levels. We discuss the utility of our framework through the lens of an illustrative case study involving patient portal-mediated pre-visit agenda setting. Conclusions: Our framework can be used to guide applied embedded CHIT interventions that support the care partner role and bring value to Learning Health Systems through advancing digital health equity, improving user experiences, and driving efficiencies through improved coordination within complex work systems.
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BACKGROUND: The epidemiology and pathophysiology of heart failure (HF) differ in women and men. Whether these differences extend to the subgroup of patients with advanced HF is not well defined. METHODS AND RESULTS: This is a retrospective cohort study of all adult Olmsted County, Minnesota residents with advanced HF (European Society of Cardiology criteria) from 2007 to 2017. Differences in survival and hospitalization risks in women and men following advanced HF development were examined using Cox proportional hazard regression and Andersen-Gill models, respectively. Of 936 individuals with advanced HF, 417 (44.6%) were women and 519 (55.4%) were men (self-reported sex). Time from development of HF to advanced HF was similar in women and men (median 3.2 versus 3.6 years). Women were older at diagnosis (mean age 79 versus 75 years), less often had coronary disease and hyperlipidemia, but more often had hypertension and depression (P<0.05 for each). Advanced HF with preserved ejection fraction was more prevalent in women than men (60% versus 30%, p<0.001). There were no differences in adjusted risks of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 0.89 [95% CI, 0.77-1.03]), cardiovascular mortality (HR, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.70-1.02]), all-cause hospitalizations (HR, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.90-1.20]), or HF hospitalizations (HR, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.75-1.11]) between women and men. However, adjusted cardiovascular mortality was lower in women versus men with advanced HF with reduced ejection fraction (HR, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.56-0.93]). CONCLUSIONS: Women more often present with advanced HF with preserved ejection fraction and men with atherosclerotic disease and advanced HF with reduced ejection fraction. Despite these differences, survival and hospitalization risks are largely comparable in women and men with advanced HF.
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Insuficiencia Cardíaca , Hospitalización , Volumen Sistólico , Humanos , Insuficiencia Cardíaca/epidemiología , Insuficiencia Cardíaca/fisiopatología , Insuficiencia Cardíaca/mortalidad , Femenino , Masculino , Anciano , Estudios Retrospectivos , Minnesota/epidemiología , Factores Sexuales , Hospitalización/estadística & datos numéricos , Volumen Sistólico/fisiología , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Factores de Riesgo , Pronóstico , Medición de Riesgo , Persona de Mediana Edad , Causas de Muerte/tendencias , Factores de TiempoRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: The PN Naloxone Nasal Swab (Pocket Naloxone Corp., Bethesda, MD) is a swab optimized for drug delivery and intended for use by non-medical personnel for the emergency treatment of opioid overdose. The aim of this study (PNC-20-003) is to determine the safety of this nasal swab in a real-world environment. METHODS: This was a single-institution, quantitative-qualitative prospective trial performed at an outpatient clinic. Patients with normal or abnormal nasal structure were recruited. A non-medically trained individual placed the nasal (soaked in fluorescein dye) on each side of the patient's nose. Endoscopy with recording was performed before and after swab placement. An independent reviewer rated degree of staining, mucosal bleeding, and trauma at nasal subsites. RESULTS: Videos from 32 nasal cavities (16 participants) were reviewed. All cavities had high intensity staining at the septum and the inferior turbinate. No patients had staining within the middle meatus, agger nasi, or olfactory regions. In patients with normal anatomy, obstructive nasal anatomy or prior nasal surgery, all cavities had staining near the nasal septum. Only 7 cavities (22 %) had minor bleeding defined as ooze that stopped in 1-2min, and 3 (9 %) had minor trauma defined as mucosal disruption less than 5mm. There were no significant differences in comparing pre- and post-swab nasal cavity, trauma, or bleeding exams. CONCLUSIONS: These study results showed that this swab is atraumatic to the nasal mucosal membranes when administered by non-medical personnel. Analysis suggests contact with targeted sites for drug absorption regardless of anatomy.
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Administración Intranasal , Sistemas de Liberación de Medicamentos , Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , Adulto , Persona de Mediana Edad , Sistemas de Liberación de Medicamentos/métodos , Estudios Prospectivos , Naloxona/administración & dosificación , Naloxona/uso terapéutico , Adulto Joven , Antagonistas de Narcóticos/uso terapéutico , Antagonistas de Narcóticos/administración & dosificación , Cavidad Nasal , Sobredosis de OpiáceosRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: Managing cancer symptoms while patients receive systemic treatment remains a challenge in oncology. The use of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) approaches like virtual reality (VR) and neurofeedback (NF) in tandem with systemic treatment might reduce symptom burden for patients. The combination of VR + NF as a CAM intervention approach is novel and understudied, particularly as it relates to supportive cancer care. The purpose of this study is to summarize our VR + NF study protocol and share preliminary results regarding study retention (across 2 treatment sessions) and preliminary impact of VR or VR + NF on patient-reported outcomes such as anxiety and pain. METHODS: We utilized a parallel arm trial design to compare preliminary impact of VR only and VR + NF on cancer symptoms among patients who are actively receiving cancer treatment. RESULTS: Sixty-seven percent (n = 20) of participants returned to participate in a second VR session, and the rates of return were the same between the VR groups. Patients in the VR + NF group showed improvements in anxiety after both sessions, while patients in the VR only group showed significant improvements in pain and depression after both sessions. Patients in the VR + NF group showed improved pain after session 1. SIGNIFICANCE OF RESULTS: This study demonstrates that patients can be retained over multiple treatment sessions and that VR and NF remain promising treatment approaches with regard to impact on patient-reported outcomes like anxiety and pain.
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OBJECTIVES: Home health care serves millions of Americans who are "Aging in Place," including the rapidly growing population of Medicare Advantage (MA) enrollees. This study systematically reviewed extant evidence illustrating home health care (HHC) services to MA enrollees. METHODS: A comprehensive literature search was conducted in 6 electronic databases to identify eligible studies, which resulted in 386 articles. Following 2 rounds of screening, 30 eligible articles were identified. Each study was also assessed independently for study quality using a validated quality assessment checklist. RESULTS: Of the 30 studies, nearly half (n=13) were recently published between January 1, 2017 - January 6, 2022. Among various issues related to HHC to MA enrollees examined, which were often compared with Traditional Medicare (TM) enrollees, the 2 most studied issues were HHC use rate (including access) and care dosage/intensity. Inconsistencies were common in findings across reviewed studies, with slight variations in the level of inconsistency by studied outcomes. Several critical issues, such as heterogeneity of MA plans, influence of MA-specific features, and program response to policy and quality improvement initiatives, were only examined by 1 or 2 studies. The depth and scope of scientific investigation were also limited by the scale and details available in MA data in addition to other methodological limits. CONCLUSIONS: Wild variations and conflicting findings on HHC to MA beneficiaries exist across studies. More research with rigorous designs and robust MA encounter data is warranted to determine home health care for MA enrollees and the relevant outcomes.
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Servicios de Atención de Salud a Domicilio , Medicare Part C , Humanos , Estados Unidos , Medicare Part C/estadística & datos numéricos , Servicios de Atención de Salud a Domicilio/estadística & datos numéricosRESUMEN
A novel cellular response of midgut progenitors (stem cells and enteroblasts) to Plasmodium berghei infection was investigated in Anopheles stephensi. The presence of developing oocysts triggers proliferation of midgut progenitors that is modulated by the Jak/STAT pathway and is proportional to the number of oocysts on individual midguts. The percentage of parasites in direct contact with enteroblasts increases over time, as progenitors proliferate. Silencing components of key signaling pathways through RNA interference (RNAi) that enhance proliferation of progenitor cells significantly decreased oocyst numbers, while limiting proliferation of progenitors increased oocyst survival. Live imaging revealed that enteroblasts interact directly with oocysts and eliminate them. Midgut progenitors sense the presence of Plasmodium oocysts and mount a cellular defense response that involves extensive proliferation and tissue remodeling, followed by oocysts lysis and phagocytosis of parasite remnants by enteroblasts.
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Anopheles , Malaria , Parásitos , Plasmodium , Animales , Quinasas Janus , Factores de Transcripción STAT , Transducción de Señal , Malaria/parasitología , Anopheles/parasitología , Oocistos , Células Madre , Plasmodium berghei/fisiologíaRESUMEN
Evidence about the relationship between lighting and crime is mixed. Although a review of evidence found that improved road / street lighting was associated with reductions in crime, these reductions occurred in daylight as well as after dark, suggesting any effect was not due only to changes in visual conditions. One limitation of previous studies is that crime data are reported in aggregate and thus previous analyses were required to make simplifications concerning types of crimes or locations. We will overcome that by working with a UK police force to access records of individual crimes. We will use these data to determine whether the risk of crime at a specific time of day is greater after dark than during daylight. If no difference is found, this would suggest improvements to visual conditions after dark through lighting would have no effect. If however the risk of crime occurring after dark was greater than during daylight, quantifying this effect would provide a measure to assess the potential effectiveness of lighting in reducing crime risk after dark. We will use a case and control approach to analyse ten years of crime data. We will compare counts of crimes in 'case' hours, that are in daylight and darkness at different times of the year, and 'control' hours, that are in daylight throughout the year. From these counts we will calculate odds ratios as a measure of the effect of darkness on risk of crime, using these to answer three questions: 1) Is the risk of overall crime occurring greater after dark than during daylight? 2) Does the risk of crime occurring after dark vary depending on the category of crime? 3) Does the risk of crime occurring after dark vary depending on the geographical area?