The Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling System: Overview and Recommendations for Future Development.

The Chesapeake Bay is the largest, most productive, and most biologically diverse estuary in the continental United States providing crucial habitat and natural resources for culturally and economically important species. Pressures from human population growth and associated development and agricultural intensification have led to excessive nutrient and sediment inputs entering the Bay, negatively affecting the health of the Bay ecosystem and the economic services it provides. The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is a unique program formally created in 1983 as a multi-stakeholder partnership to guide and foster restoration of the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed. Since its inception, the CBP Partnership has been developing, updating, and applying a complex linked modeling system of watershed, airshed, and estuary models as a planning tool to inform strategic management decisions and Bay restoration efforts. This paper provides a description of the 2017 CBP Modeling System and the higher trophic level models developed by the NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office, along with specific recommendations that emerged from a 2018 workshop designed to inform future model development. Recommendations highlight the need for simulation of watershed inputs, conditions, processes, and practices at higher resolution to provide improved information to guide local nutrient and sediment management plans. More explicit and extensive modeling of connectivity between watershed landforms and estuary sub-areas, estuarine hydrodynamics, watershed and estuarine water quality, the estuarine-watershed socioecological system, and living resources will be important to broaden and improve characterization of responses to targeted nutrient and sediment load reductions. Finally, the value and importance of maintaining effective collaborations among jurisdictional managers, scientists, modelers, support staff, and stakeholder communities is emphasized. An open collaborative and transparent process has been a key element of successes to date and is vitally important as the CBP Partnership moves forward with modeling system improvements that help stakeholders evolve new knowledge, improve management strategies, and better communicate outcomes.

A multiscale approach to balance trade-offs among dam infrastructure, river restoration, and cost.

Aging infrastructure and growing interests in river restoration have led to a substantial rise in dam removals in the United States. However, the decision to remove a dam involves many complex trade-offs. The benefits of dam removal for hazard reduction and ecological restoration are potentially offset by the loss of hydroelectricity production, water supply, and other important services. We use a multiobjective approach to examine a wide array of trade-offs and synergies involved with strategic dam removal at three spatial scales in New England. We find that increasing the scale of decision-making improves the efficiency of trade-offs among ecosystem services, river safety, and economic costs resulting from dam removal, but this may lead to heterogeneous and less equitable local-scale outcomes. Our model may help facilitate multilateral funding, policy, and stakeholder agreements by analyzing the trade-offs of coordinated dam decisions, including net benefit alternatives to dam removal, at scales that satisfy these agreements.

The Efficacy of Constructed Stream-Wetland Complexes at Reducing the Flux of Suspended Solids to Chesapeake Bay.

Studies documenting the capacity of restored streams to reduce pollutant loads indicate that they are relatively ineffective when principal watershed stressors remain intact. Novel restorations are being designed to increase the hydraulic connectivity between stream channels and floodplains to enhance pollutant removal, and their popularity has increased the need for measurements of potential load reductions. Herein we summarize input-output budgets of total suspended solids (TSS) in two Coastal Plain lowland valleys modified to create stream-wetland complexes located above the head-of-tide on the western shore of Chesapeake Bay. Loads entering (input) and exiting (output) the reconfigured valleys over three years were 103 ± 26 and 85 ± 21 tons, respectively, and 41 ± 10 and 46 ± 9 tons, respectively. In both cases, changes in loads within the reconfigured valleys were insignificant relative to cumulative errors. High variability of TSS retention among stormflow events suggests that the capacity of these systems to trap and retain solids and their sustainability depend on the magnitude of TSS loads originating upstream, design characteristics, and the frequency and magnitude of large storms. Constructed stream-wetland complexes receiving relatively high TSS loads may experience progressive physical and chemical changes that limit their sustainability.