Tropicalization and kelp loss shift trophic composition and lead to more winners than losers in fish communities.

Climate-mediated species redistributions are causing novel interactions and leading to profound regime shifts globally. For species that expand their distribution in response to warming, survival depends not only on their physiological capacity, but also on the ability to coexist or be competitive within the established community. In temperate marine reefs from around the world, the range expansion of tropical species, known as 'tropicalization', has been linked to the disappearance of temperate habitat-forming kelps and shifts to dominance by low-biomass turfing algae. The consequences of these range expansions and habitat changes on resident fish communities are, however, unclear. Here, we use data derived from baited remote underwater video (BRUV) surveys to analyse changes in diversity and abundance of marine fishes over a 17-year period in warming reefs that have experienced kelp loss (occurring c. 2009). Despite the loss of kelp, we found that species richness and overall abundance of fishes (measured as probability of occurrence and relative abundance), including both tropical and temperate species, increased through time. We also found dramatic shifts in the trophic composition of fish assemblages. Tropical herbivorous fish increased most markedly through time, and temperate-associated planktivores were the only group that declined, a potential consequence of tropicalization not previously identified. At the species level, we identified 22 tropical and temperate species from four trophic guilds that significantly increased in occurrence, while only three species (all temperate associated) declined. Morphological trait space models suggest increases in fish diversity and overall occurrence are unlikely to be driven by uniqueness of traits among tropical range expanders. Our results show more winners than losers and suggest that pathways of energy flow will change in tropicalized systems, as planktonic inputs become less important and a higher proportion of algal productivity gets consumed locally by increasingly abundant herbivores.

'Stick with your own kind, or hang with the locals?' Implications of shoaling strategy for tropical reef fish on a range-expansion frontline.

Range shifts of tropical marine species to temperate latitudes are predicted to increase as a consequence of climate change. To date, the research focus on climate-mediated range shifts has been predominately dealt with the physiological capacity of tropical species to cope with the thermal challenges imposed by temperate latitudes. Behavioural traits of individuals in the novel temperate environment have not previously been investigated, however, they are also likely to play a key role in determining the establishment success of individual species at the range-expansion forefront. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of shoaling strategy on the performance of juvenile tropical reef fishes that recruit annually to temperate waters off the south east coast of Australia. Specifically, we compared body-size distributions and the seasonal decline in abundance through time of juvenile tropical fishes that shoaled with native temperate species ('mixed' shoals) to those that shoaled only with conspecifics (as would be the case in their tropical range). We found that shoaling with temperate native species benefitted juvenile tropical reef fishes, with individuals in 'mixed' shoals attaining larger body-sizes over the season than those in 'tropical-only' shoals. This benefit in terms of population body-size distributions was accompanied by greater social cohesion of 'mixed' shoals across the season. Our results highlight the impact that sociality and behavioural plasticity are likely to play in determining the impact on native fish communities of climate-induced range expansion of coral reef fishes.

Predicting range-shift success potential for tropical marine fishes using external morphology.

With global change accelerating the rate of species' range shifts, predicting which are most likely to establish viable populations in their new habitats is key to understanding how biological systems will respond. Annually, in Australia, tropical fish larvae from the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) are transported south via the East Australian Current (EAC), settling into temperate coastal habitats for the summer period, before experiencing near-100% mortality in winter. However, within 10 years, predicted winter ocean temperatures for the southeast coast of Australia will remain high enough for more of these so-called 'tropical vagrants' to survive over winter. We used a method of morphological niche analysis, previously shown to be an effective predictor of invasion success by fishes, to project which vagrants have the greatest likelihood of undergoing successful range shifts under these new climatic conditions. We find that species from the family of butterflyfishes (Chaetodontidae), and the moorish idol, Zanclus cornutus, are most likely to be able to exploit new niches within the ecosystem once physiological barriers to overwintering by tropical vagrant species are removed. Overall, the position of vagrants within the morphospace was strongly skewed, suggesting that impending competitive pressures may impact disproportionately on particular parts of the native community.

Partial migration of grey mullet (Mugil cephalus) on Australia's east coast revealed by otolith chemistry.

Partial migration affects the ecology and evolution of animal populations, and is an important consideration for the management of harvested species, yet the phenomenon is understudied in fish. We provide the first insights into partially diadromous migration of grey mullet (Mugil cephalus) in Australia by examining the otolith chemistry of old individuals (aged 7-10 years) from two regions on the east coast. Strontium and Barium concentrations were measured across the otolith using laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) and indicated considerable diversity in migratory histories among individuals. Only 15% of individuals made repeated movements from estuaries to the marine environment, consistent with the annual spawning run in the region. The remainder either made irregular movements between salinity environments (70%), or resided in estuaries or fresh water for their entire life following the early juvenile stage (15%). The patterns are consistent with 'skipped spawning' partial migration, where a proportion of the mature population forgoes spawning each year. If confirmed, the behavior may afford the east coast population of M. cephalus some resilience to fishing pressure on the annual spawning run.