A cross-sectional survey of risk factors for the presence of Coxiella burnetii in Australian commercial dairy goat farms.

The largest Australian farm-based outbreak of Q fever originated from a dairy goat herd. We surveyed commercial dairy goat farms across Australia by testing bulk tank milk (BTM) samples using a commercial indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and two quantitative polymerase chain reactions (PCRs). Of the 66 commercial dairy goat herds on record, managers from 61 herds were contacted and 49 provided BTM samples. Five of the surveyed herds were positive on at least one of the diagnostic tests, thus herd-level apparent prevalence was 10% (95% confidence interval [CI] 4 to 22). True prevalence was estimated to be 3% (95% credible interval: 0 to 18). Herd managers completed a questionnaire on herd management, biosecurity and hygiene practices and risk factors were investigated using multivariable logistic regression. Herds with >900 milking does (the upper quartile) were more likely to be Coxiella burnetii positive (odds ratio = 6.75; 95% CI 1.65 to 27.7) compared with farms with ≤900 milking does. The odds of BTM positivity increased by a factor of 2.53 (95% CI 1.51 to 4.22) for each order of magnitude increase in the number of goats per acre. C. burnetii was not detected in samples from the majority of the Australian dairy goat herds suggesting there is an opportunity to protect the industry and contain this disease with strengthened biosecurity practices. Intensification appeared associated with an increased risk of positivity. Further investigation is required to discriminate the practices associated with an increased risk of introduction to disease-free herds, from practices associated with maintenance of C. burnetii infection in infected dairy goat herds.

Temporal trends in between and within-country inequalities in caesarean delivery in low- and middle-income countries: a Bayesian analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To provide updated information about between-country variations, temporal trends and changes in inequalities within countries in caesarean delivery (CD) rates. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study of Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) during 1990-2018. SETTING: 74 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). POPULATION: Women 15-49 years of age who had live births in the last 3 years. METHODS: Bayesian linear regression analysis was performed and absolute differences were calculated. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Population-level CD by countries and sociodemographic characteristics of mothers over time. RESULTS: CD rates, based on the latest DHS rounds, varied substantially between the study countries, from 1.5% (95% CI 1.1-1.9%) in Madagascar to 58.9% (95% CI 56.0-61.6%) in the Dominican Republic. Of 62 LMICs with at least two surveys, 57 countries showed a rise in CD during 1990-2018, with the greatest increase in Sierra Leone (19.3%). Large variations in CD rates were observed across mother's wealth, residence, education and age, with a higher rate of CD by the richest and urban mothers. These inequalities have widened in many countries. Stratified analyses suggest greater provisioning of CD by the richest mothers in private facilities and poorest mothers in public facilities. CONCLUSIONS: CD rates varied substantially across geographical locations and over time, irrespective of public or private health facilities. Changes in CD rates continue across wealth, place of residence, education, and age of mother, and are widening in most study countries. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Increasing caesarean delivery rates were greater among the richest and urban mothers than their counterparts, with widened gaps in LMICs.

Environmental and sociodemographic risk factors associated with environmentally transmitted zoonoses hospitalisations in Queensland, Australia.

Zoonoses impart a significant public health burden in Australia particularly in Queensland, a state with increasing environmental stress due to extreme weather events and rapid expansion of agriculture and urban developments. Depending on the organism and the environment, a proportion of zoonotic pathogens may survive from hours to years outside the animal host and contaminate the air, water, food, or inanimate objects facilitating their transmission through the environment (i.e. environmentally transmitted). Although most of these zoonotic infections are asymptomatic, severe cases that require hospitalisation are an important indicator of zoonotic infection risk. To date, no studies have investigated the risk of hospitalisation due to environmentally transmitted zoonotic diseases and its association with proxies of sociodemographic and environmental stress. In this study we analysed hospitalisation data for a group of environmentally transmitted zoonoses during a 15-year period using a Bayesian spatial hierarchical model. The analysis incorporated the longest intercensal-year period of consistent Local Government Area (LGA) boundaries in Queensland (1996-2010). Our results showed an increased risk of environmentally transmitted zoonoses hospitalisation in people in occupations such as animal farming, and hunting and trapping animals in natural habitats. This risk was higher in females, compared to the general population. Spatially, the higher risk was in a discrete set of north-eastern, central and southern LGAs of the state, and a probability of 1.5-fold or more risk was identified in two separate LGA clusters in the northeast and south of the state. The increased risk of environmentally transmitted zoonoses hospitalisations in some LGAs indicates that the morbidity due these diseases can be partly attributed to spatial variations in sociodemographic and occupational risk factors in Queensland. The identified high-risk areas can be prioritised for health support and zoonosis control strategies in Queensland.

Factors influencing the success of aerial rabies vaccination of foxes.

Sylvatic rabies has been eradicated from most of Central Europe, but cases still occur in the Balkans. Oral rabies vaccination of foxes is an effective method for controlling the disease. The aim of this study was to evaluate the success of aerial vaccination campaigns conducted in Montenegro by identifying ecological, environmental and climatic factors that influenced the prevalence of antibodies to the rabies vaccine. To monitor the bait uptake and the serological responses to vaccination, foxes were shot by hunters. Of 175 shot foxes, 142 foxes (81.1%) had consumed baits. Of these only a total of 81 (57.0%) tested positive for rabies vaccine antibodies, possibly, due to the delayed uptake of bait in which the rabies vaccine was already inactivated. We found that low vaccination responses were associated with high fox density and bait delivery in open areas. In high fox density habitat, bait uptake might be delayed as other food and prey options for foxes are abundant. Similarly, delayed bait uptake probably occurred in open areas as such areas are less frequently used by foxes. The findings of this study suggest that efficacy of oral rabies vaccination by aerial delivery is associated with landscape features.

Assessing the social and environmental determinants of pertussis epidemics in Queensland, Australia: a Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis.

Pertussis epidemics have displayed substantial spatial heterogeneity in countries with high socioeconomic conditions and high vaccine coverage. This study aims to investigate the relationship between pertussis risk and socio-environmental factors on the spatio-temporal variation underlying pertussis infection. We obtained daily case numbers of pertussis notifications from Queensland Health, Australia by postal area, for the period January 2006 to December 2012. A Bayesian spatio-temporal model was used to quantify the relationship between monthly pertussis incidence and socio-environmental factors. The socio-environmental factors included monthly mean minimum temperature (MIT), monthly mean vapour pressure (VAP), Queensland school calendar pattern (SCP), and socioeconomic index for area (SEIFA). An increase in pertussis incidence was observed from 2006 to 2010 and a slight decrease from 2011 to 2012. Spatial analyses showed pertussis incidence across Queensland postal area to be low and more spatially homogeneous during 2006-2008; incidence was higher and more spatially heterogeneous after 2009. The results also showed that the average decrease in monthly pertussis incidence was 3·1% [95% credible interval (CrI) 1·3-4·8] for each 1 °C increase in monthly MIT, while average increase in monthly pertussis incidences were 6·2% (95% CrI 0·4-12·4) and 2% (95% CrI 1-3) for SCP periods and for each 10-unit increase in SEIFA, respectively. This study demonstrated that pertussis transmission is significantly associated with MIT, SEIFA, and SCP. Mapping derived from this work highlights the potential for future investigation and areas for focusing future control strategies.

Factors Associated with the Emergence of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (H5N1) Poultry Outbreaks in China: Evidence from an Epidemiological Investigation in Ningxia, 2012.

In April 2012, highly pathogenic avian influenza virus of the H5N1 subtype (HPAIV H5N1) emerged in poultry layers in Ningxia. A retrospective case-control study was conducted to identify possible risk factors associated with the emergence of H5N1 infection and describe and quantify the spatial variation in H5N1 infection. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify risk factors significantly associated with the presence of infection; residual spatial variation in H5N1 risk unaccounted by the factors included in the multivariable model was investigated using a semivariogram. Our results indicate that HPAIV H5N1-infected farms were three times more likely to improperly dispose farm waste [adjusted OR = 0.37; 95% CI: 0.12-0.82] and five times more likely to have had visitors in their farm within the past month [adjusted OR = 5.47; 95% CI: 1.97-15.64] compared to H5N1-non-infected farms. The variables included in the final multivariable model accounted only 20% for the spatial clustering of H5N1 infection. The average size of a H5N1 cluster was 660 m. Bio-exclusion practices should be strengthened on poultry farms to prevent further emergence of H5N1 infection. For future poultry depopulation, operations should consider H5N1 disease clusters to be as large as 700 m.

Association between serum vitamin D, retinol and zinc status, and acute respiratory infections in underweight and normal-weight children aged 6-24 months living in an urban slum in Bangladesh.

We conducted a longitudinal assessment in 466 underweight and 446 normal-weight children aged 6-24 months living in the urban slum of Dhaka, Bangladesh to determine the association between vitamin D and other micronutrient status with upper respiratory tract infection (URI) and acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI). Incidence rate ratios of URI and ALRI were estimated using multivariable generalized estimating equations. Our results indicate that underweight children with insufficient and deficient vitamin D status were associated with 20% and 23-25% reduced risk of URI, respectively, compared to children with sufficient status. Underweight children, those with serum retinol deficiency were at 1·8 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·4-2·4] times higher risk of ALRI than those with retinol sufficiency. In normal-weight children there were no significant differences between different vitamin D status and the incidence of URI and ALRI. However, normal-weight children with zinc insufficiency and those that were serum retinol deficient had 1·2 (95% CI 1·0-1·5) times higher risk of URI and 1·9 (95% CI 1·4-2·6) times higher risk of ALRI, respectively. Thus, our results should encourage efforts to increase the intake of retinol-enriched food or supplementation in this population. However, the mechanisms through which vitamin D exerts beneficial effects on the incidence of childhood respiratory tract infection still needs further research.

Association of vitamin D status with incidence of enterotoxigenic, enteropathogenic and enteroaggregative Escherichia coli diarrhoea in children of urban Bangladesh.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between vitamin D status and diarrhoeal episodes by enterotoxigenic (ETEC), enteropathogenic (EPEC) and enteroaggregative (EAEC) E. coli in underweight and normal-weight children aged 6-24 months in urban Bangladesh. METHODS: Cohorts of 446 normal-weight and 466 underweight children were tested separately for ETEC, EPEC and EAEC from diarrhoeal stool samples collected during 5 months of follow-up while considering vitamin D status at enrolment as the exposure. Cox proportional hazards models with unordered failure events of the same type were used to determine diarrhoeal risk factors after adjusting for sociodemographic and concurrent micronutrient status. RESULTS: Vitamin D status was not independently associated with the risk of incidence of ETEC, EPEC and EAEC diarrhoea in underweight children, but moderate-to-severe retinol deficiency was associated with reduced risk for EPEC diarrhoea upon adjustment. Among normal-weight children, insufficient vitamin D status and moderate-to-severe retinol deficiency were independently associated with 44% and 38% reduced risk of incidence of EAEC diarrhoea, respectively. These children were at higher risk of ETEC diarrhoea with vitamin D deficiency status when adjusted for micronutrient status only. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates for the first time that normal-weight children with insufficient vitamin D status have a reduced risk of EAEC diarrhoea than children with sufficient status. Moderate-to-severe deficiency of serum retinol is associated with reduced risk of EPEC and EAEC diarrhoea in underweight and normal-weight children.

Prevalence of and risk factors for MRSA carriage in companion animals: a survey of dogs, cats and horses.

We investigated the prevalence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) carriage in a convenience sample of purposely selected populations of dogs, cats and horses in the Greater London area. Swabs from carriage sites were pooled, enriched and processed by standard bacteriological methods. The presence of nuc and mecA was confirmed for MRSA. Risk factors were investigated among veterinary treatment group animals using exact logistic regression analysis. Twenty-six (1.53%) MRSA carriers were identified in the 1692 animals (15/704 dogs, 8/540 cats, 3/152 horses). Animals presenting for veterinary treatment more frequently carried MRSA than healthy animals (OR 7.27, 95% CI 2.18-24.31, P<0.001). Concurrent carriage of non-MRSA coagulase-positive staphylococci was associated with MRSA carriage (OR 0.088, 95% CI 0.016-0.31, P<0.001); none of the other 13 putative risk factors was significant. MRSA carriage was rare in the selected companion animal populations. The absence of typical risk factors indicates that companion animals act as contaminated vectors rather than as true reservoirs.

Geographical information systems and tropical medicine.

In terms of their applicability to the field of tropical medicine, geographical information systems (GIS) have developed enormously in the last two decades. This article reviews some of the pertinent and representative applications of GIS, including the use of such systems and remote sensing for the mapping of Chagas disease and human helminthiases, the use of GIS in vaccine trials, and the global applications of GIS for health-information management, disease epidemiology, and pandemic planning. The future use of GIS as a decision-making tool and some barriers to the widespread implementation of such systems in developing settings are also discussed.

Heifer nutrition during early- and mid-pregnancy alters fetal growth trajectory and birth weight.

Maternal nutrient intake during gestation can alter fetal growth. Whilst this has been studied extensively in the sheep, less is known about effects in the bovine. Composite-breed beef heifers were allocated to either a high (H/-=76 MJ metabolisable energy (ME) and 1.4 kg crude protein (CP)) or low (L/-=62 MJ ME and 0.4 kg CP daily) nutritional treatment at artificial insemination. Half of each nutritional group changed to an opposite nutritional group at the end of the first trimester (-/H=82 MJ ME and 1.4 kg CP; -/L=62 MJ ME and 0.4 kg CP daily), resulting in 4 treatment groups: HH (n=16); HL (n=19); LH (n=17); LL (n=19). During the third trimester all heifers were fed the same diets. Fetuses were measured at 4-weekly intervals beginning at day 39 of gestation. Calves were also measured at birth for physical body variables. Low maternal nutrient intake was associated with decreased crown-rump length at day 39 (P<0.01) and increased thoracic diameter at day 95 (P<0.01). Umbilical cord diameter was reduced in L/- fetuses in the first trimester (P<0.05) but was greater in -/L fetuses in the second trimester compared to their respective H counterparts (P<0.05). Calf birth weight was decreased in association with -/L maternal diets (P<0.05). In conclusion, fetal development of cattle may be affected by maternal nutrition as early as day 39 of gestation. This may be followed by either compensatory fetal growth, or alternatively, preferential fetal tissue growth that is dependant upon maternal nutrition. Clearly, calf birth weight may be altered by maternal nutrition during mid-gestation.

Use of social network analysis to characterize the pattern of animal movements in the initial phases of the 2001 foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in the UK.

Aggregated movement data do not take into account the relative position of the units within a higher-level structure. Social network analysis (SNA) and graph theory provide a tool to organise and analyse relational data overcoming the limitations of standard methods where the position of individuals/observations does not affect the result of the analysis. Some recorded movements of cattle and sheep during the initial phase of the 2001 foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in the UK, before the ban on animal movements was imposed, are analysed descriptively using SNA. With the data available, a directed dichotomized network with 653 nodes and 797 arches was analysed. Most of the 10 nodes with the highest betweenness (3 farms, 4 markets and 3 dealers) were identified as key players in the initial spread of the infection. Three groups of nodes with distinctive proportion of k < or = 2 neighbours would result in three different theoretical outbreak dimensions assuming that the infection is only disseminated by the movements included in the network: no spread, spread up to 7% and around 25%. There are three hierarchical clusters with 308, 215 and 130 nodes, respectively. Farms in cluster 1 appear to be more similar in their movement patterns to non-farm holdings than to farms in clusters 2 and 3. Relative betweenness, k-neighbours and structural equivalence using hierarchical clustering were able to identify key actors in the evolution of the initial phases of the FMD outbreak such as markets, dealers and farms with atypical movement patterns. Holdings with high betweenness, large number of k < or = 2 neighbours and with movement pattern as in cluster 1 should be targeted in disease control activities once primary actors like markets, dealers and slaughter houses have been contained.