Detection of Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Levels in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in Respiratory Clinics in Spain: Results of the EPOCONSUL 2021 Audit.

BACKGROUND: Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD) is an underdiagnosed condition despite being one of the most common inherited disorders in adults that is associated with an increased risk of developing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The aim was to evaluate the frequency of performing AAT levels and associated factors in COPD patients in an audit conducted in 2021-2022, as well as to compare with a previous audit conducted in 2014-2015. METHODS: EPOCONSUL 2021 is a cross-sectional audit that evaluated the outpatient care provided to COPD patients in respiratory clinics in Spain based on available data from medical registries. RESULTS: 4225 patients with a diagnosis of COPD from 45 centers were audited in 2021. A total of 1670 (39.5%) patients underwent AAT determination. Being treated at a specialized COPD outpatient clinic (OR 1.88, p = 0.007), age ≤ 55 years old (OR 1.84, p = 0.007) and a FEV1 < 50% (OR 1.86, p < 0.001) were associated with a higher likelihood of being tested for AAT, while Charlson index ≥ 3 (OR 0.63, p < 0.001) and genotyping of AATD availability (OR 0.42, p < 0.001) showed a statistically significant negative association. The analysis of cases included in respiratory units that participated in both audits showed an increase in the proportion of cases with AAT serum level testing available (adjusted OR 2.81, p < 0.001). The percentage of individuals with serum AAT levels < 60 mg/dL (a severe AATD) was 4%. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis identifies significant improvements in adherence to the recommendation to test AAT levels in COPD patients, performed in 4 out of 10 patients, being more likely at younger ages and with higher COPD severity, and with a detection of severe AATD of 4% among those tested, suggesting that clinicians still perform AAT testing in COPD patients selectively. Therefore, efforts are still needed to optimize AATD screening and establish new early detection strategies to reduce morbidity and mortality in these patients.

Lung function and radiological findings 1 year after COVID-19: a prospective follow-up.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has already affected more than 400 million people, with increasing numbers of survivors. These data indicate that a myriad of people may be affected by pulmonary sequelae of the infection. The aim of this study was to evaluate pulmonary sequelae in patients with bilateral COVID-19 pneumonia according to severity 1 year after hospital discharge. METHODS: COVID-FIBROTIC is a multicenter prospective observational cohort study for admitted patients with bilateral COVID-19 pneumonia. Pulmonary functional outcomes and chest computed tomography sequelae were analyzed 12 months after hospital discharge and we classified patients into three groups according to severity. A post hoc analysis model was designed to establish how functional test changed between groups and over time. A multivariable logistic regression model was created to study prognostic factors for lung diffusion impairment and radiological fibrotic-like changes at 12 months. RESULTS: Among 488 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia, 284 patients had completed the entire evaluation at 12 months. Median age was 60.5 ± 11.9 and 55.3% were men. We found between-group differences in male sex, length of hospital stay, radiological involvement and inflammatory laboratory parameters. The functional evaluation of pulmonary sequelae showed that severe patients had statistically worse levels of lung diffusion at 2 months but no between group differences were found in subsequent controls. At 12-month follow up, however, we found impaired lung diffusion in 39.8% unrelated to severity. Radiological fibrotic-like changes at 12 months were reported in 22.7% of patients (102/448), only associated with radiological involvement at admission (OR: 1.55, 95% CI 1.06-2.38; p = 0.02) and LDH (OR: 0.99, 95% CI 0.98-0.99; p = 0.046). CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that a significant percentage of individuals would develop pulmonary sequelae after COVID 19 pneumonia, regardless of severity of the acute process. Trial registration clinicaltrials.gov NCT04409275 (June 1, 2020).

Trends in Hospital Admissions for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in Men and Women in Spain, 1998 to 2018.

The prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is rising faster in women in some countries. An observational time trends study was performed to assess the evolution of hospital admissions for COPD in men and women in Spain from 1998 to 2018. ICD-9 diagnostic codes (490-492, 496) from the minimum basic data set of hospital discharges were used. Age-standardised admission rates were calculated using the European Standard Population. Joinpoint regression models were fitted to estimate the annual percent change (APC). In 2018, the age-standardised admission rate per 100,000 population/year for COPD was five times higher in men (384.8, 95% CI: 381.7, 387.9) than in women (78.6, 95% CI: 77.4, 79.9). The average annual percent change (AAPC) was negative over the whole study period in men (-1.7%/year, 95% CI: -3.1, -0.2) but positive from 2010 to 2018 (1.1%/year, 95% CI: -0.8, 2.9). In women, the APC was -6.0% (95%CI: -7.1, -4.9) from 1998 to 2010, but the trend reversed direction in the 2010-2018 period (7.8%/year, 95% CI: 5.5, 10.2). Thus, admission rates for COPD decreased from 1998 to 2010 in both men and women but started rising again until 2018, modestly in men and sharply in women.

Mortality prediction in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease comparing the GOLD 2015 and GOLD 2019 staging: a pooled analysis of individual patient data.

In 2019, The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) modified the grading system for patients with COPD, creating 16 subgroups (1A-4D). As part of the COPD Cohorts Collaborative International Assessment (3CIA) initiative, we aim to compare the mortality prediction of the 2015 and 2019 COPD GOLD staging systems. We studied 17 139 COPD patients from the 3CIA study, selecting those with complete data. Patients were classified by the 2015 and 2019 GOLD ABCD systems, and we compared the predictive ability for 5-year mortality of both classifications. In total, 17 139 patients with COPD were enrolled in 22 cohorts from 11 countries between 2003 and 2017; 8823 of them had complete data and were analysed. Mean±sd age was 63.9±9.8 years and 62.9% were male. GOLD 2019 classified the patients in milder degrees of COPD. For both classifications, group D had higher mortality. 5-year mortality did not differ between groups B and C in GOLD 2015; in GOLD 2019, mortality was greater for group B than C. Patients classified as group A and B had better sensitivity and positive predictive value with the GOLD 2019 classification than GOLD 2015. GOLD 2015 had better sensitivity for group C and D than GOLD 2019. The area under the curve values for 5-year mortality were only 0.67 (95% CI 0.66-0.68) for GOLD 2015 and 0.65 (95% CI 0.63-0.66) for GOLD 2019. The new GOLD 2019 classification does not predict mortality better than the previous GOLD 2015 system.

Sex differences between women and men with COPD: A new analysis of the 3CIA study.

BACKGROUND: There is partial evidence that COPD is expressed differently in women than in men, namely on symptoms, pulmonary function, exacerbations, comorbidities or prognosis. There is a need to improve the characterization of COPD in females. METHODS: We obtained and pooled data of 17 139 patients from 22 COPD cohorts and analysed the clinical differences by sex, establishing the relationship between these characteristics in women and the prognosis and severity of the disease. Comparisons were established with standard statistics and survival analysis, including crude and multivariate Cox-regression analysis. RESULTS: Overall, 5355 (31.2%) women were compared with men with COPD. Women were younger, had lower pack-years, greater FEV1%, lower BMI and a greater number of exacerbations (all p < 0.05). On symptoms, women reported more dyspnea, equal cough but less expectoration (p < 0.001). There were no differences in the BODE index score in women (2.4) versus men (2.4) (p = 0.5), but the distribution of all BODE components was highly variable by sex within different thresholds of BODE. On prognosis, 5-year survival was higher in COPD females (86.9%) than in males (76.3%), p < 0.001, in all patients and within each of the specific comorbidities that we assessed. The crude and adjusted RR and 95% C.I. for death in males was 1.82 (1.69-1.96) and 1.73 (1.50-2.00), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: COPD in women has some characteristic traits expressed differently than compared to men, mainly with more dyspnea and COPD exacerbations and less phlegm, among others, although long-term survival appears better in female COPD patients.

External Validation and Recalculation of the CODEX Index in COPD Patients. A 3CIAplus Cohort Study.

The CODEX index was developed and validated in patients hospitalized for COPD exacerbation to predict the risk of death and readmission within one year after discharge. Our study aimed to validate the CODEX index in a large external population of COPD patients with variable durations of follow-up. Additionally, we aimed to recalculate the thresholds of the CODEX index using the cutoffs of variables previously suggested in the 3CIA study (mCODEX). Individual data on 2,755 patients included in the COPD Cohorts Collaborative International Assessment Plus (3CIA+) were explored. A further two cohorts (ESMI AND EGARPOC-2) were added. To validate the CODEX index, the relationship between mortality and the CODEX index was assessed using cumulative/dynamic ROC curves at different follow-up periods, ranging from 3 months up to 10 years. Calibration was performed using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard models and Hosmer-Lemeshow test. A total of 3,321 (87.8% males) patients were included with a mean ± SD age of 66.9 ± 10.5 years, and a median follow-up of 1,064 days (IQR 25-75% 426-1643), totaling 11,190 person-years. The CODEX index was statistically associated with mortality in the short- (≤3 months), medium- (≤1 year) and long-term (10 years), with an area under the curve of 0.72, 0.70 and 0.76, respectively. The mCODEX index performed better in the medium-term (<1 year) than the original CODEX, and similarly in the long-term. In conclusion, CODEX and mCODEX index are good predictors of mortality in patients with COPD, regardless of disease severity or duration of follow-up.

Correction: Testing for alpha-1 antitrypsin in COPD in outpatient respiratory clinics in Spain: A multilevel, cross-sectional analysis of the EPOCONSUL study.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0198777.].

Determinants of medical prescriptions for COPD care: an analysis of the EPOCONSUL clinical audit.

Purpose: Current COPD management recommendations indicate that pharmacological treatment can be stepped up or down, but there are no recommendations on how to make this adjustment. We aimed to describe pharmacological prescriptions during a routine clinical visit for COPD and study the determinants of changing therapy. Methods: EPOCONSUL is a Spanish nationwide observational cross-sectional clinical audit with prospective case recruitment including 4,508 COPD patients from outpatient respiratory clinics for a period of 12 months (May 2014-May 2015). Prescription patterns were examined in 4,448 cases and changes analyzed in stepwise backward, binomial, multivariate, logistic regression models. Results: Patterns of prescription of inhaled therapy groups were no treatment prescribed, 124 (2.8%) cases; one or two long-acting bronchodilators (LABDs) alone, 1,502 (34.6%) cases; LABD with inhaled corticosteroids (ICSs), 389 (8.6%) cases; and triple therapy cases, 2,428 (53.9%) cases. Incorrect prescriptions of inhaled therapies were observed in 261 (5.9%) cases. After the clinical visit was audited, 3,494 (77.5%) cases did not modify their therapeutic prescription, 307 (6.8%) cases had a step up, 238 (5.3%) cases had a change for a similar scheme, 182 (4.1%) cases had a step down, and 227 (5.1%) cases had other nonspecified change. Stepping-up strategies were associated with clinical presentation (chronic bronchitis, asthma-like symptoms, and exacerbations), a positive bronchodilator test, and specific inhaled medication groups. Stepping down was associated with lung function impairment, ICS containing regimens, and nonexacerbator phenotype. Conclusion: The EPOCONSUL study shows a comprehensive evaluation of pharmacological treatments in COPD care, highlighting strengths and weaknesses, to help us understand how physicians use available drugs.

Testing for alpha-1 antitrypsin in COPD in outpatient respiratory clinics in Spain: A multilevel, cross-sectional analysis of the EPOCONSUL study.

BACKGROUND: Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD) is the most common hereditary disorder in adults, but is under-recognized. In Spain, the number of patients diagnosed with AATD is much lower than expected according to epidemiologic studies. The objectives of this study were to assess the frequency and determinants of testing serum α1-antitrypsin (AAT) levels in COPD patients, and to describe factors associated with testing. METHODS: EPOCONSUL is a cross-sectional clinical audit, recruiting consecutive COPD cases over one year. The study evaluated serum AAT level determination in COPD patients and associations between individual, disease-related, and hospital characteristics. RESULTS: A total of 4,405 clinical records for COPD patients from 57 Spanish hospitals were evaluated. Only 995 (22.5%) patients had serum AAT tested on some occasion. A number of patient characteristics (being male [OR 0.5, p < 0.001], ≤55 years old [OR 2.38, p<0.001], BMI≤21 kg/m2 [OR 1.71, p<0.001], FEV1(%)<50% [OR 1.35, p<0.001], chronic bronchitis [OR 0.79, p < 0.001], Charlson index ≥ 3 [OR 0.66, p < 0.001], or history or symptoms of asthma [OR 1.32, p<0.001]), and management at a specialized COPD outpatient clinic [OR 2.73,p<0.001] were identified as factors independently associated with ever testing COPD patients for AATD. Overall, 114 COPD patients (11.5% of those tested) had AATD. Of them, 26 (22.8%) patients had severe deficiency. Patients with AATD were younger, with a low pack-year index, and were more likely to have emphysema (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: Testing of AAT blood levels in COPD patients treated at outpatient respiratory clinics in Spain is infrequent. However, when tested, AATD (based on the serum AAT levels ≤100 mg/dL) is detected in one in five COPD patients. Efforts to optimize AATD case detection in COPD are needed.

Large-scale external validation and comparison of prognostic models: an application to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

BACKGROUND: External validations and comparisons of prognostic models or scores are a prerequisite for their use in routine clinical care but are lacking in most medical fields including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Our aim was to externally validate and concurrently compare prognostic scores for 3-year all-cause mortality in mostly multimorbid patients with COPD. METHODS: We relied on 24 cohort studies of the COPD Cohorts Collaborative International Assessment consortium, corresponding to primary, secondary, and tertiary care in Europe, the Americas, and Japan. These studies include globally 15,762 patients with COPD (1871 deaths and 42,203 person years of follow-up). We used network meta-analysis adapted to multiple score comparison (MSC), following a frequentist two-stage approach; thus, we were able to compare all scores in a single analytical framework accounting for correlations among scores within cohorts. We assessed transitivity, heterogeneity, and inconsistency and provided a performance ranking of the prognostic scores. RESULTS: Depending on data availability, between two and nine prognostic scores could be calculated for each cohort. The BODE score (body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnea, and exercise capacity) had a median area under the curve (AUC) of 0.679 [1st quartile-3rd quartile = 0.655-0.733] across cohorts. The ADO score (age, dyspnea, and airflow obstruction) showed the best performance for predicting mortality (difference AUCADO - AUCBODE = 0.015 [95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.002 to 0.032]; p = 0.08) followed by the updated BODE (AUCBODE updated - AUCBODE = 0.008 [95% CI = -0.005 to +0.022]; p = 0.23). The assumption of transitivity was not violated. Heterogeneity across direct comparisons was small, and we did not identify any local or global inconsistency. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses showed best discriminatory performance for the ADO and updated BODE scores in patients with COPD. A limitation to be addressed in future studies is the extension of MSC network meta-analysis to measures of calibration. MSC network meta-analysis can be applied to prognostic scores in any medical field to identify the best scores, possibly paving the way for stratified medicine, public health, and research.

Variability in adherence to clinical practice guidelines and recommendations in COPD outpatients: a multi-level, cross-sectional analysis of the EPOCONSUL study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical audits have reported considerable variability in COPD medical care and frequent inconsistencies with recommendations. The objectives of this study were to identify factors associated with a better adherence to clinical practice guidelines and to explore determinants of this variability at the the hospital level. METHODS: EPOCONSUL is a Spanish nationwide clinical audit that evaluates the outpatient management of COPD. Multilevel logistic regression with two levels was performed to assess the relationships between individual and disease-related factors, as well as hospital characteristics. RESULTS: A total of 4508 clinical records of COPD patients from 59 Spanish hospitals were evaluated. High variability was observed among hospitals in terms of medical care. Some of the patient's characteristics (airflow obstruction, degree of dyspnea, exacerbation risk, presence of comorbidities), the hospital factors (size and respiratory nurses available) and treatment at a specialized COPD outpatient clinic were identified as factors associated with a better adherence to recommendations, although this only explains a small proportion of the total variance. CONCLUSION: To be treated at a specialized COPD outpatient clinic and some intrinsic patient characteristics were factors associated with a better adherence to guideline recommendations, although these variables were only explaining part of the high variability observed among hospitals in terms of COPD medical care.

Prevalence of persistent blood eosinophilia: relation to outcomes in patients with COPD.

The impact of blood eosinophilia in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains controversial.To evaluate the prevalence and stability of a high level of blood eosinophils (≥300 cells·µL-1) and its relationship to outcomes, we determined blood eosinophils at baseline and over 2 years in 424 COPD patients (forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) 60% predicted) and 67 smokers without COPD from the CHAIN cohort, and in 308 COPD patients (FEV1 60% predicted) in the BODE cohort. We related eosinophil levels to exacerbations and survival using Cox hazard analysis.In COPD patients, 15.8% in the CHAIN cohort and 12.3% in the BODE cohort had persistently elevated blood eosinophils at all three visits. A significant proportion (43.8%) of patients had counts that oscillated above and below the cut-off points, while the rest had persistent eosinophil levels <300 cells·µL-1 A similar eosinophil blood pattern was observed in controls. Exacerbation rates did not differ in patients with and without eosinophilia. All-cause mortality was lower in patients with high eosinophils compared with those with values <300 cells·µL-1 (15.8% versus 33.7%; p=0.026).In patients with COPD, blood eosinophils ≥300 cells·µL-1 persisting over 2 years was not a risk factor for COPD exacerbations. High eosinophil count was associated with better survival.

A simple algorithm for the identification of clinical COPD phenotypes.

This study aimed to identify simple rules for allocating chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients to clinical phenotypes identified by cluster analyses.Data from 2409 COPD patients of French/Belgian COPD cohorts were analysed using cluster analysis resulting in the identification of subgroups, for which clinical relevance was determined by comparing 3-year all-cause mortality. Classification and regression trees (CARTs) were used to develop an algorithm for allocating patients to these subgroups. This algorithm was tested in 3651 patients from the COPD Cohorts Collaborative International Assessment (3CIA) initiative.Cluster analysis identified five subgroups of COPD patients with different clinical characteristics (especially regarding severity of respiratory disease and the presence of cardiovascular comorbidities and diabetes). The CART-based algorithm indicated that the variables relevant for patient grouping differed markedly between patients with isolated respiratory disease (FEV1, dyspnoea grade) and those with multi-morbidity (dyspnoea grade, age, FEV1 and body mass index). Application of this algorithm to the 3CIA cohorts confirmed that it identified subgroups of patients with different clinical characteristics, mortality rates (median, from 4% to 27%) and age at death (median, from 68 to 76 years).A simple algorithm, integrating respiratory characteristics and comorbidities, allowed the identification of clinically relevant COPD phenotypes.

Requirements, Strengths and Weaknesses of Inhaler Devices for COPD Patients from the Expert Prescribers' Point of View: Results of the EPOCA Delphi Consensus.

The study aimed to assess the preferences of expert physicians about the requirements for inhalation devices for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and to identify the most relevant advantages and disadvantages to their prescription. In a two-round Delphi survey, 96 Spanish COPD-expert pulmonologists completed an internet-based questionnaire to evaluate the degree of importance of the characteristics of the inhaler devices in their choice for COPD. The requirements needed for use in COPD were that the device permits a high pulmonary deposit of the drug, allowed its dispensation at low inspiratory flows, did not require hand-mouth coordination, generated an exact and reproducible dose, its operation was easy to teach, provided the perception of a correct inhalation, had an intuitive use mechanism and security mechanisms to prevent overdosing and generates a reduced oropharyngeal deposit (very good consensus). Modulite®, Respimat® and NEXThaler® were associated with high pulmonary deposit, and Respimat® showed correct dispensation at low inspiratory flows. All dry-powder inhaler devices were associated with the advantage of not requiring coordination, and Respimat® was the only device considered as difficult to teach by more than 50% of the experts. Breezhaler® and Genuair® were positively associated with patients' awareness of correct inhalation, whereas Spiromax® stood out for its intuitive use mechanism. In conclusion, our study contributes to defining the inhaler device properties required for their use in patients with COPD, and to identify the devices that, in the opinion of experts, best meet each requirement.

Clinical audit of COPD in outpatient respiratory clinics in Spain: the EPOCONSUL study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) outpatients account for a large burden of usual care by respirologists. EPOCONSUL is the first national clinical audit conducted in Spain on the medical care for COPD patients delivered in outpatient respiratory clinics. We aimed to evaluate the clinical interventions and the degree of adherence to recommendations in outpatients of current COPD clinical practice guidelines. METHODOLOGY: This is an observational study with prospective recruitment (May 2014-May 2015) of patients with a COPD diagnosis as seen in outpatient respiratory clinics. The information collected was historical in nature as for the clinical data of the last and previous consultations, and the information concerning hospital resources was concurrent. RESULTS: A total of 17,893 clinical records of COPD patients in outpatient respiratory clinics from 59 Spanish hospitals were evaluated. Of the 5,726 patients selected, 4,508 (78.7%) were eligible. Overall, 12.1% of COPD patients did not fulfill a diagnostic spirometry criteria. Considerable variability existed in the available resources and work organization of the hospitals, although the majority were university hospitals with respiratory inpatient units. There was insufficient implementation of clinical guidelines in preventive and educational matters. In contrast, quantitative evaluation of dyspnea grade (81.9%) and exacerbation history (70.9%) were more frequently performed. Only 12.4% had COPD severity calculated according to the Body mass index, airflow Obstruction, Dyspnoea and Exercise capacity (BODE) index. Phenotype characteristics according to Spanish National Guideline for COPD were determined in 46.3% of the audited patients, and the risk evaluation according to Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease was estimated only in 21.9%. CONCLUSION: The EPOCONSUL study reports the current situation of medical care for COPD patients in outpatient clinics in Spain, revealing its variability, strengths, and weaknesses. This information has to be accounted for by health managers to define corrective strategies and maximize good clinical practice.

Prognostic assessment in COPD without lung function: the B-AE-D indices.

Several composite markers have been proposed for risk assessment in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, choice of parameters and score complexity restrict clinical applicability. Our aim was to provide and validate a simplified COPD risk index independent of lung function.The PROMISE study (n=530) was used to develop a novel prognostic index. Index performance was assessed regarding 2-year COPD-related mortality and all-cause mortality. External validity was tested in stable and exacerbated COPD patients in the ProCOLD, COCOMICS and COMIC cohorts (total n=2988).Using a mixed clinical and statistical approach, body mass index (B), severe acute exacerbations of COPD frequency (AE), modified Medical Research Council dyspnoea severity (D) and copeptin (C) were identified as the most suitable simplified marker combination. 0, 1 or 2 points were assigned to each parameter and totalled to B-AE-D or B-AE-D-C. It was observed that B-AE-D and B-AE-D-C were at least as good as BODE (body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnoea, exercise capacity), ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction) and DOSE (dyspnoea, obstruction, smoking, exacerbation) indices for predicting 2-year all-cause mortality (c-statistic: 0.74, 0.77, 0.69, 0.72 and 0.63, respectively; Hosmer-Lemeshow test all p>0.05). Both indices were COPD specific (c-statistic for predicting COPD-related 2-year mortality: 0.87 and 0.89, respectively). External validation of B-AE-D was performed in COCOMICS and COMIC (c-statistic for 1-year all-cause mortality: 0.68 and 0.74; c-statistic for 2-year all-cause mortality: 0.65 and 0.67; Hosmer-Lemeshow test all p>0.05).The B-AE-D index, plus copeptin if available, allows a simple and accurate assessment of COPD-related risk.

Mortality prediction in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease comparing the GOLD 2007 and 2011 staging systems: a pooled analysis of individual patient data.

BACKGROUND: There is no universal consensus on the best staging system for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Although documents (eg, the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease [GOLD] 2007) have traditionally used forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) for staging, clinical parameters have been added to some guidelines (eg, GOLD 2011) to improve patient management. As part of the COPD Cohorts Collaborative International Assessment (3CIA) initiative, we aimed to investigate how individual patients were categorised by GOLD 2007 and 2011, and compare the prognostic accuracy of the staging documents for mortality. METHODS: We searched reports published from Jan 1, 2008, to Dec 31, 2014. Using data from cohorts that agreed to participate and had a minimum amount of information needed for GOLD 2007 and 2011, we did a patient-based pooled analysis of existing data. With use of raw data, we recalculated all participant assignments to GOLD 2007 I-IV classes, and GOLD 2011 A-D stages. We used survival analysis, C statistics, and non-parametric regression to model time-to-death data and compare GOLD 2007 and GOLD 2011 staging systems to predict mortality. FINDINGS: We collected individual data for 15 632 patients from 22 COPD cohorts from seven countries, totalling 70 184 person-years. Mean age of the patients was 63·9 years (SD 10·1); 10 751 (69%) were men. Based on FEV1 alone (GOLD 2007), 2424 (16%) patients had mild (I), 7142 (46%) moderate (II), 4346 (28%) severe (III), and 1670 (11%) very severe (IV) disease. We compared staging with the GOLD 2007 document with that of the new GOLD 2011 system in 14 660 patients: 5548 (38%) were grade A, 2733 (19%) were grade B, 1835 (13%) were grade C, and 4544 (31%) were grade D. GOLD 2011 shifted the overall COPD severity distribution to more severe categories. There were nearly three times more COPD patients in stage D than in former stage IV (p<0·05). The predictive capacity for survival up to 10 years was significant for both systems (p<0·01) but area under the curves were only 0·623 (GOLD 2007) and 0·634 (GOLD 2011), and GOLD 2007 and 2011 did not differ significantly. We identified the percent predicted FEV1 thresholds of 85%, 55% and 35% as better to stage COPD severity for mortality, which are similar to the ones used previously. INTERPRETATION: Neither GOLD COPD classification schemes have sufficient discriminatory power to be used clinically for risk classification at the individual level to predict total mortality for 3 years of follow-up and onwards. Increasing intensity of treatment of patients with COPD due to their GOLD 2011 reclassification is not known to improve health outcomes. Evidence-based thresholds should be searched when exploring the prognostic ability of current and new COPD multicomponent indices. FUNDING: None.

Finding the best thresholds of FEV1 and dyspnea to predict 5-year survival in COPD patients: the COCOMICS study.

BACKGROUND: FEV1 is universally used as a measure of severity in COPD. Current thresholds are based on expert opinion and not on evidence. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to identify the best FEV1 (% predicted) and dyspnea (mMRC) thresholds to predict 5-yr survival in COPD patients. DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted a patient-based pooled analysis of eleven COPD Spanish cohorts (COCOMICS). Survival analysis, ROC curves, and C-statistics were used to identify and compare the best FEV1 (%) and mMRC scale thresholds that predict 5-yr survival. RESULTS: A total of 3,633 patients (93% men), totaling 15,878 person-yrs. were included, with a mean age 66.4 ± 9.7, and predicted FEV1 of 53.8% (± 19.4%). Overall 975 (28.1%) patients died at 5 years. The best thresholds that spirometrically split the COPD population were: mild ≥ 70%, moderate 56-69%, severe 36-55%, and very severe ≤ 35%. Survival at 5 years was 0.89 for patients with FEV1 ≥ 70 vs. 0.46 in patients with FEV1 ≤ 35% (H.R: 6; 95% C.I.: 4.69-7.74). The new classification predicts mortality significantly better than dyspnea (mMRC) or FEV1 GOLD and BODE cutoffs (all p<0.001). Prognostic reliability is maintained at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years. In younger patients, survival was similar for FEV1 (%) values between 70% and 100%, whereas in the elderly the relationship between FEV1 (%) and mortality was inversely linear. CONCLUSIONS: The best thresholds for 5-yr survival were obtained stratifying FEV1 (%) by ≥ 70%, 56-69%, 36-55%, and ≤ 35%. These cutoffs significantly better predict mortality than mMRC or FEV1 (%) GOLD and BODE cutoffs.

Clinical application of the COPD assessment test: longitudinal data from the COPD History Assessment in Spain (CHAIN) cohort.

OBJECTIVE: The COPD Assessment Test (CAT) has been proposed for assessing health status in COPD, but little is known about its longitudinal changes. The objective of this study was to evaluate 1-year CAT variability in patients with stable COPD and to relate its variations to changes in other disease markers. METHODS: We evaluated the following variables in smokers with and without COPD at baseline and after 1 year: CAT score, age, sex, smoking status, pack-year history, BMI, modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) scale, 6-min walk distance (6MWD), lung function, BODE (BMI, obstruction, dyspnea, exercise capacity) index, hospital admissions, Hospital and Depression Scale, and the Charlson comorbidity index. In patients with COPD, we explored the association of CAT scores and 1-year changes in the studied parameters. RESULTS: A total of 824 smokers with COPD and 126 without COPD were evaluated at baseline and 441 smokers with COPD and 66 without COPD 1 year later. At 1 year, CAT scores for patients with COPD were similar (± 4 points) in 56%, higher in 27%, and lower in 17%. Of note, mMRC scale scores were similar (± 1 point) in 46% of patients, worse in 36%, and better in 18% at 1 year. One-year CAT changes were best predicted by changes in mMRC scale scores (ß-coefficient, 0.47; P < .001). Similar results were found for CAT and mMRC scale score in smokers without COPD. CONCLUSIONS: One-year longitudinal data show variability in CAT scores among patients with stable COPD similar to mMRC scale score, which is the best predictor of 1-year CAT changes. Further longitudinal studies should confirm long-term CAT variability and its clinical applicability. TRIAL REGISTRY: ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT01122758; URL: www.clinicaltrials.gov.

Multicomponent indices to predict survival in COPD: the COCOMICS study.

Guidelines recommend defining chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) by airflow obstruction and other factors, but no studies have evaluated the ability of existing multicomponent indices to predict mortality up to 10 years. We conducted a patient-based pooled analysis. Survival analysis and C statistics were used to determine the best COPD index/indices according to several construct variables and by varying time-points. Individual data of 3633 patients from 11 COPD cohorts were collected, totalling the experience of 15 878 person-years. Overall, there were 1245 death events within our cohorts, with a Kaplan-Meier survival of 0.963 at 6 months, which was reduced to 0.432 at 10 years. In all patients, ADO (age, dyspnoea and forced expiratory volume in 1 s), BODE (body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnoea and exercise capacity) and e-BODE (BODE plus exacerbations) were the best indices to predict 6-month mortality. The ADO index was the best to predict 12-month (C statistic 0.702), 5-year (C statistic 0.695) and 10-year mortality (C statistic 0.698), and was significantly better than BODE (all p<0.05). The best indices to predict death by C statistics when adjusting by age were e-BODE, BODEx (substitution of exacerbations for exercise capacity) and BODE. No index predicts short-term survival of COPD well. All BODE modifications scored better than ADO after age adjustment. The ADO and BODE indices are overall the most valid multicomponent indices to predict time to death in all COPD patients.