External exposome and all-cause mortality in European cohorts: the EXPANSE project.

Background: Many studies reported associations between long-term exposure to environmental factors and mortality; however, little is known on the combined effects of these factors and health. We aimed to evaluate the association between external exposome and all-cause mortality in large administrative and traditional adult cohorts in Europe. Methods: Data from six administrative cohorts (Catalonia, Greece, Rome, Sweden, Switzerland and the Netherlands, totaling 27,913,545 subjects) and three traditional adult cohorts (CEANS-Sweden, EPIC-NL-the Netherlands, KORA-Germany, totaling 57,653 participants) were included. Multiple exposures were assigned at the residential addresses, and were divided into three a priori defined domains: (1) air pollution [fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC) and warm-season Ozone (warm-O3)]; (2) land/built environment (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index-NDVI, impervious surfaces, and distance to water); (3) air temperature (cold- and warm-season mean and standard deviation). Each domain was synthesized through Principal Component Analysis (PCA), with the aim of explaining at least 80% of its variability. Cox proportional-hazards regression models were applied and the total risk of the external exposome was estimated through the Cumulative Risk Index (CRI). The estimates were adjusted for individual- and area-level covariates. Results: More than 205 million person-years at risk and more than 3.2 million deaths were analyzed. In single-component models, IQR increases of the first principal component of the air pollution domain were associated with higher mortality [HRs ranging from 1.011 (95% CI: 1.005-1.018) for the Rome cohort to 1.076 (1.071-1.081) for the Swedish cohort]. In contrast, lower levels of the first principal component of the land/built environment domain, pointing to reduced vegetation and higher percentage of impervious surfaces, were associated with higher risks. Finally, the CRI of external exposome increased mortality for almost all cohorts. The associations found in the traditional adult cohorts were generally consistent with the results from the administrative ones, albeit without reaching statistical significance. Discussion: Various components of the external exposome, analyzed individually or in combination, were associated with increased mortality across European cohorts. This sets the stage for future research on the connections between various exposure patterns and human health, aiding in the planning of healthier cities.

Long-term ambient air pollution and coronary atherosclerosis: Results from the Swedish SCAPIS study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Despite firm evidence for an association between long-term ambient air pollution exposure and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, results from epidemiological studies on the association between air pollution exposure and atherosclerosis have not been consistent. We investigated associations between long-term low-level air pollution exposure and coronary atherosclerosis. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional analysis in the large Swedish CArdioPulmonary bioImaging Study (SCAPIS, n = 30 154), a random general population sample. Concentrations of total and locally emitted particulate matter <2.5 µm (PM2.5), <10 µm (PM10), and nitrogen oxides (NOx) at the residential address were modelled using high-resolution dispersion models. We estimated associations between air pollution exposures and segment involvement score (SIS), coronary artery calcification score (CACS), number of non-calcified plaques (NCP), and number of significant stenoses, using ordinal regression models extensively adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: Median 10-year average PM2.5 exposure was 6.2 µg/m3 (range 3.5-13.4 µg/m3). 51 % of participants were women and 51 % were never-smokers. None of the assessed pollutants were associated with a higher SIS or CACS. Exposure to PM2.5 was associated with NCP (adjusted OR 1.34, 95 % CI 1.13, 1.58, per 2.05 µg/m3). Associations with significant stenoses were inconsistent. CONCLUSIONS: In this large, middle-aged general population sample with low exposure levels, air pollution was not associated with measures of total burden of coronary atherosclerosis. However, PM2.5 appeared to be associated with a higher prevalence of non-calcified plaques. The results suggest that increased risk of early-stage atherosclerosis or rupture, but not increased total atherosclerotic burden, may be a pathway for long-term air pollution effects on cardiovascular disease.

Socioeconomic per-case costs of stroke, myocardial infarction, and preterm birth attributable to air pollution in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Incident cases of stroke, myocardial infarction, and preterm birth have established exposure-response functions associated with air pollution. However, there are no studies reporting detailed costs per case for these health outcomes that are adapted to the cost-benefit tools that guide the regulation of air pollution. OBJECTIVES: The primary objective was to establish non-fatal per-case monetary estimates for stroke, myocardial infarction, and preterm birth attributable to air pollution in Sweden, and the secondary objective was to ease the economic evaluation process of air pollution morbidity effects and their inclusion in cost-benefit assessments. METHODS: Based on recommendations from the literature, the case-cost analysis considered direct and indirect medical costs, as well as production losses and informal costs relevant for the calculation of the net present value. A literature search was conducted to estimate the costs of each category for each incident case in Sweden. Informal costs were estimated using the quality-adjusted life-years approach and the corresponding willingness-to-pay in the Swedish population. The total average per-case cost was estimated based on specific health outcome durations and severity and was discounted by 3.5% per year. Sensitivity analysis included varying discount rates, severity of health outcome, and the range of societal willingness to pay for quality-adjusted life years. RESULTS: The average net present value cost estimate was €2016 460k (185k-1M) for non-fatal stroke, €2016 24k (16k-38k) for myocardial infarction, and €2016 34k (19k-57k) for late preterm birth. The main drivers of the per-case total cost estimates were health outcome severity and societal willingness to pay for risk reduction. Varying the discount rate had the largest effect on preterm birth, with costs changing by ±30% for the discount rates analysed. RECOMMENDATION: Because stroke, myocardial infarction, and preterm birth have established exposure-response functions linking these to air pollution, cost-benefit analyses should include the costs for these health outcomes in order to adequately guide future air pollution and climate change policies.

Disentangling associations between multiple environmental exposures and all-cause mortality: an analysis of European administrative and traditional cohorts.

Background: We evaluated the independent and joint effects of air pollution, land/built environment characteristics, and ambient temperature on all-cause mortality as part of the EXPANSE project. Methods: We collected data from six administrative cohorts covering Catalonia, Greece, the Netherlands, Rome, Sweden, and Switzerland and three traditional cohorts in Sweden, the Netherlands, and Germany. Participants were linked to spatial exposure estimates derived from hybrid land use regression models and satellite data for: air pollution [fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC), warm season ozone (O3)], land/built environment [normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), distance to water, impervious surfaces], and ambient temperature (the mean and standard deviation of warm and cool season temperature). We applied Cox proportional hazard models accounting for several cohort-specific individual and area-level variables. We evaluated the associations through single and multiexposure models, and interactions between exposures. The joint effects were estimated using the cumulative risk index (CRI). Cohort-specific hazard ratios (HR) were combined using random-effects meta-analyses. Results: We observed over 3.1 million deaths out of approximately 204 million person-years. In administrative cohorts, increased exposure to PM2.5, NO2, and BC was significantly associated with all-cause mortality (pooled HRs: 1.054, 1.033, and 1.032, respectively). We observed an adverse effect of increased impervious surface and mean season-specific temperature, and a protective effect of increased O3, NDVI, distance to water, and temperature variation on all-cause mortality. The effects of PM2.5 were higher in areas with lower (10th percentile) compared to higher (90th percentile) NDVI levels [pooled HRs: 1.054 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.030-1.079) vs. 1.038 (95% CI 0.964-1.118)]. A similar pattern was observed for NO2. The CRI of air pollutants (PM2.5 or NO2) plus NDVI and mean warm season temperature resulted in a stronger effect compared to single-exposure HRs: [PM2.5 pooled HR: 1.061 (95% CI 1.021-1.102); NO2 pooled HR: 1.041 (95% CI 1.025-1.057)]. Non-significant effects of similar patterns were observed in traditional cohorts. Discussion: The findings of our study not only support the independent effects of long-term exposure to air pollution and greenness, but also highlight the increased effect when interplaying with other environmental exposures.