RESUMEN
Low- and middle-income countries faced significant challenges in accessing COVID-19 vaccines during the early stages of the pandemic. In this study, we utilized an age-structured modeling approach to examine the implications of various vaccination strategies, vaccine prioritization, and vaccine rollout speeds in Thailand, an upper-middle-income country experiencing vaccine shortages during the early stages of the pandemic. The model directly compares the effectiveness of several vaccination strategies, including the heterologous vaccination where CoronaVac (CV) vaccine was administered as the first dose, followed by ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZ) vaccine as the second dose, under varying disease transmission dynamics. We found that the traditional AZ homologous vaccination was more effective than the CV homologous vaccination, regardless of disease transmission dynamics. However, combining CV and AZ vaccines via either parallel homologous or heterologous vaccinations was more effective than relying solely on AZ homologous vaccination. Additionally, prioritizing vaccination for the elderly aged 60 years and above was the most effective way to reduce mortality when community transmission is well-controlled. On the other hand, prioritizing workers aged 20-59 was most effective in lowering COVID-19 cases, irrespective of the transmission dynamics. Lastly, despite the vaccine prioritization strategy, rapid vaccine rollout speeds were crucial in reducing COVID-19 infections and deaths. These findings suggested that in low- and middle-income countries where early access to high-efficacy vaccines might be limited, obtaining any accessible vaccines as early as possible and using them in parallel with other higher-efficacy vaccines might be a better strategy than waiting for and relying solely on higher-efficacy vaccines.
RESUMEN
In this work, a mathematical model for describing diphtheria transmission in Thailand is proposed. Based on the course of diphtheria infection, the population is divided into 8 epidemiological classes, namely, susceptible, symptomatic infectious, asymptomatic infectious, carrier with full natural-acquired immunity, carrier with partial natural-acquired immunity, individual with full vaccine-induced immunity, and individual with partial vaccine-induced immunity. Parameter values in the model were either directly obtained from the literature, estimated from available data, or estimated by means of sensitivity analysis. Numerical solutions show that our model can correctly describe the decreasing trend of diphtheria cases in Thailand during the years 1977-2014. Furthermore, despite Thailand having high DTP vaccine coverage, our model predicts that there will be diphtheria outbreaks after the year 2014 due to waning immunity. Our model also suggests that providing booster doses to some susceptible individuals and those with partial immunity every 10 years is a potential way to inhibit future diphtheria outbreaks.
Asunto(s)
Difteria/transmisión , Modelos Teóricos , Difteria/epidemiología , Humanos , Tailandia/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
The kinetics of registration of lipid domains in the apposing leaflets of symmetric bilayer membranes is investigated via systematic dissipative particle dynamics simulations. The decay of the distance between the centres of mass of the domains in the apposing leaflets is almost linear during early stages, and then becomes exponential during late times. The time scales of both linear and exponential decays are found to increase with decreasing strength of interleaflet coupling. The ratio between the time scales of the exponential and linear regimes decreases with increasing domain size, implying that the decay of the distance between the domains' centres of mass is essentially linear for large domains. These numerical results are largely in agreement with the recent theoretical predictions of Han and Haataja [Soft Matter, 2013, 9, 2120-2124]. We also found that the domains become elongated during the registration process.
