Economic development and road traffic injuries and fatalities in Thailand: an application of spatial panel data analysis, 2012-2016.

BACKGROUND: Road traffic injuries (RTIs) have been one of the most critical public health problems in Thailand for decades. The objective of this study was to examine to what extent provincial economy was associated with RTIs, road traffic deaths and case fatality rate in Thailand. METHODS: A secondary data analysis on time-series data was applied. The unit of analysis was a panel of 77 provinces during 2012-2016. Data were obtained from relevant public authorities, including the Ministry of Public Health. Descriptive statistics and econometric models, using negative binomial (NB) regression, negative binomial regression with random-effects (RE) model, and spatial Durbin model (SDM) were employed. The main predictor variable was gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and the outcome variables were incidence proportion of RTIs, traffic deaths and case fatality rate. The analysis was adjusted for key covariates. RESULTS: The incidence proportion of RTIs rose from 449.0 to 524.9 cases per 100,000 population from 2012 till 2016, whereas the incidence of traffic fatalities fluctuated between 29.7 and 33.2 deaths per 100,000 population. Case fatality rate steadily stood at 0.06-0.07 deaths per victim. RTIs and traffic deaths appeared to be positively correlated with provincial economy in the NB regression and the RE model. In the SDM, a log-Baht increase in GDP per capita (equivalent to a growth of GDP per capita by about 2.7 times) enlarged the incidence proportion of injuries and deaths by about a quarter (23.8-30.7%) with statistical significance. No statistical significance was found in case fatality rate by the SDM. The SDM also presented the best model fitness relative to other models. CONCLUSION: The incidence proportion of traffic injuries and deaths appeared to rise alongside provincial prosperity. This means that RTIs-preventive measures should be more intensified in economically well-off areas. Furthermore, entrepreneurs and business sectors that gain economic benefit in a particular province should share responsibility in RTIs prevention in the area where their businesses are running. Further studies that explore others determinants of road safety, such as patterns of vehicles used, attitudes and knowledge of motorists, investment in safety measures, and compliance with traffic laws, are recommended.

Assessment of trauma quality improvement activities at public hospitals in Thailand.

BACKGROUND: Given the current exceptional burden of injury in Thailand, the proven efficacy of quality improvement programs, and the current scarcity of national-level information on trauma quality improvement program (TQIP) implementation in Thailand, we aimed to examine the use of TQIPs and barriers to TQIP adoption in Thai public trauma centers. METHODS: We distributed a survey to 110 public hospitals which are designated to provide trauma care in Thailand. The survey assessed the presence or absence of the four core elements of the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended TQIPs (morbidity and mortality (M&M) conferences, preventable death panels, trauma registries, and audit filters), and provider perception of barriers and priorities in TQIP implementation. RESULTS: Responses were received from 80 (72%) respondents. Seventy-two (90%) reported having a trauma registry and seventy (88%) respondents reported use of audit filters. Seventy (88%) respondents reported conducting regular M&M conferences, and 45 (56%) respondents reported the presence of preventable death panels. Thirty-eight (48%) respondents reported presence of all four elements of WHO TQIPs. The most commonly reported barriers to implementing TQIPs were lack of interest (55; 68%) and lack of time (39; 48%)to implement TQIPs. Audit filters were reported by only 25 (31%) of respondents and optimization of audit filters was the most frequently identified next-step in further development of TQIP. CONCLUSIONS: Just under half of responding Thai public trauma centers reported implementation of all four elements of the WHO recommended TQIPs. Priority strategies to facilitate TQIP maturation in Thailand should address staff motivation, provision of staff time for TQIP development, and optimization of audit filter use to monitor quality of care.

A Population-Based Acute Meningitis and Encephalitis Syndromes Surveillance in Guangxi, China, May 2007-June 2012.

OBJECTIVES: Acute meningitis and encephalitis (AME) are common diseases with the main pathogens being viruses and bacteria. As specific treatments are different, it is important to develop clinical prediction rules to distinguish aseptic from bacterial or fungal infection. In this study we evaluated the incidence rates, seasonal variety and the main etiologic agents of AME, and identified factors that could be used to predict the etiologic agents. METHODS: A population-based AME syndrome surveillance system was set up in Guigang City, Guangxi, involving 12 hospitals serving the study communities. All patients meeting the case definition were investigated. Blood and/or cerebrospinal fluid were tested for bacterial pathogens using culture or RT-PCR and serological tests for viruses using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. Laboratory testing variables were grouped using factor analysis. Multinomial logistic regression was used to predict the etiology of AME. RESULTS: From May 2007 to June 2012, the annual incidence rate of AME syndrome, and disease specifically caused by Japanese encephalitis (JE), other viruses, bacteria and fungi were 12.55, 0.58, 4.57, 0.45 and 0.14 per 100,000 population, respectively. The top three identified viral etiologic agents were enterovirus, mumps virus, and JE virus, and for bacteria/fungi were Streptococcus sp., Cryptococcus neoformans and Staphylococcus sp. The incidence of JE and other viruses affected younger populations and peaked from April to August. Alteration of consciousness and leukocytosis were more likely to be caused by JE, bacteria and fungi whereas CSF inflammation was associated with bacterial/fungal infection. CONCLUSIONS: With limited predictive validity of symptoms and signs and routine laboratory tests, specific tests for JE virus, mumps virus and enteroviruses are required to evaluate the immunization impact and plan for further intervention. CSF bacterial culture cannot be omitted in guiding clinical decisions regarding patient treatment.

Signal detection for Thai traditional medicine: examination of national pharmacovigilance data using reporting odds ratio and reported population attributable risk.

Herbal containing medicine consumption has increased while the awareness of adverse drug reaction (ADR) was less than conventional medicine. Early detection of unexpected numbers of ADRs from herbal medicines' reports which are abnormal from the whole database needs quantification. Disproportionality analysis has been performed for signal detection by using reporting odds ratio (ROR) as measurement. The impact of having medicine as exposures in each ADR should be measured by using reported population attributable risks (RPAR). This study aimed to quantify the contribution of Thai traditional medicine (TTM) to ADR reports and to assess the association between TTMs and serious adverse drug reactions. Data were retrieved from the adverse drug reaction surveillance database, Thai-Food and Drug Administration from 2002 to 2013. Crude and adjusted RORs for each drug-ADR pair and RPARs were computed. TTM contributed only 0.001% of all serious ADRs reported. Out of 4208 TTM-ADR pairs were examined, three had the statistically significant RORs, namely Andrographis paniculata and anaphylactic shock (ROR 2.32, 95% CI 1.03, 5.21); green traditional medicine and Stevens-Johnson syndrome (ROR 13.04, 95% CI 5.4-31.51) and Derris scandens Benth and angioedema (ROR 2.71, 95% CI 1.05-6.95). Their RPARs ranged from 0.05% to 0.16%. We conclude that TTMs need more intensive surveillance.

Variation of health-related quality of life assessed by caregivers and patients affected by severe childhood infections.

BACKGROUND: The agreement between self-reported and proxy measures of health status in ill children is not well established. This study aimed to quantify the variation in health-related quality of life (HRQOL) derived from young patients and their carers using different instruments. METHODS: A hospital-based cross-sectional survey was conducted between August 2010 and March 2011. Children with meningitis, bacteremia, pneumonia, acute otitis media, hearing loss, chronic lung disease, epilepsy, mild mental retardation, severe mental retardation, and mental retardation combined with epilepsy, aged between five to 14 years in seven tertiary hospitals were selected for participation in this study. The Health Utilities Index Mark 2 (HUI2), and Mark 3 (HUI3), and the EuroQoL Descriptive System (EQ-5D) and Visual Analogue Scale (EQ-VAS) were applied to both paediatric patients (self-assessment) and caregivers (proxy-assessment). RESULTS: The EQ-5D scores were lowest for acute conditions such as meningitis, bacteremia, and pneumonia, whereas the HUI3 scores were lowest for most chronic conditions such as hearing loss and severe mental retardation. Comparing patient and proxy scores (n = 74), the EQ-5D exhibited high correlation (r = 0.77) while in the HUI2 and HUI3 patient and caregiver scores were moderately correlated (r = 0.58 and 0.67 respectively). The mean difference between self and proxy-assessment using the HUI2, HUI3, EQ-5D and EQ-VAS scores were 0.03, 0.05, -0.03 and -0.02, respectively. In hearing-impaired and chronic lung patients the self-rated HRQOL differed significantly from their caregivers. CONCLUSIONS: The use of caregivers as proxies for measuring HRQOL in young patients affected by pneumococcal infection and its sequelae should be employed with caution. Given the high correlation between instruments, each of the HRQOL instruments appears acceptable apart from the EQ-VAS which exhibited low correlation with the others.

Cost-utility analysis of 10- and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines: protection at what price in the Thai context?

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to evaluate the costs and outcomes of offering the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in Thailand compared to the current situation of no PCV vaccination. METHODS: Two vaccination schedules were considered: two-dose primary series plus a booster dose (2+1) and three-dose primary series plus a booster dose (3+1). A cost-utility analysis was conducted using a societal perspective. A Markov simulation model was used to estimate the relevant costs and health outcomes for a lifetime horizon. Costs were collected and values were calculated for the year 2010. The results were reported as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in Thai Baht (THB) per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained, with future costs and outcomes being discounted at 3% per annum. One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis using a Monte Carlo simulation were performed to assess parameter uncertainty. RESULTS: Under the base case-scenario of 2+1 dose schedule and a five-year protection, without indirect vaccine effects, the ICER for PCV10 and PCV13 were THB 1,368,072 and THB 1,490,305 per QALY gained, respectively. With indirect vaccine effects, the ICER of PCV10 was THB 519,399, and for PCV13 was THB 527,378. The model was sensitive to discount rate, the change in duration of vaccine protection and the incidence of pneumonia for all age groups. CONCLUSIONS: At current prices, PCV10 and PCV13 are not cost-effective in Thailand. Inclusion of indirect vaccine effects substantially reduced the ICERs for both vaccines, but did not result in cost effectiveness.

How influenza vaccination policy may affect vaccine logistics.

BACKGROUND: When policymakers make decision about the target populations and timing of influenza vaccination, they may not consider the impact on the vaccine supply chains, which may in turn affect vaccine availability. PURPOSE: Our goal is to explore the effects on the Thailand vaccine supply chain of introducing influenza vaccines and varying the target populations and immunization time-frames. METHODS: We Utilized our custom-designed software HERMES (Highly Extensible Resource for Modeling Supply Chains), we developed a detailed, computational discrete-event simulation model of the Thailand's National Immunization Program (NIP) supply chain in Trang Province, Thailand. A suite of experiments simulated introducing influenza vaccines for different target populations and over different time-frames prior to and during the annual influenza season. RESULTS: Introducing influenza vaccines creates bottlenecks that reduce the availability of both influenza vaccines as well as the other NIP vaccines, with provincial to district transport capacity being the primary constraint. Even covering only 25% of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practice-recommended population while administering the vaccine over six months hinders overall vaccine availability so that only 62% of arriving patients can receive vaccines. Increasing the target population from 25% to 100% progressively worsens these bottlenecks, while increasing influenza vaccination time-frame from 1 to 6 months decreases these bottlenecks. CONCLUSION: Since the choice of target populations for influenza vaccination and the time-frame to deliver this vaccine can substantially affect the flow of all vaccines, policy-makers may want to consider supply chain effects when choosing target populations for a vaccine.

Maintaining vaccine delivery following the introduction of the rotavirus and pneumococcal vaccines in Thailand.

Although the substantial burdens of rotavirus and pneumococcal disease have motivated many countries to consider introducing the rotavirus vaccine (RV) and heptavalent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-7) to their National Immunization Programs (EPIs), these new vaccines could affect the countries' vaccine supply chains (i.e., the series of steps required to get a vaccine from their manufacturers to patients). We developed detailed computational models of the Trang Province, Thailand, vaccine supply chain to simulate introducing various RV and PCV-7 vaccine presentations and their combinations. Our results showed that the volumes of these new vaccines in addition to current routine vaccines could meet and even exceed (1) the refrigerator space at the provincial district and sub-district levels and (2) the transport cold space at district and sub-district levels preventing other vaccines from being available to patients who arrive to be immunized. Besides the smallest RV presentation (17.1 cm³/dose), all other vaccine introduction scenarios required added storage capacity at the provincial level (range: 20 L-1151 L per month) for the three largest formulations, and district level (range: 1 L-124 L per month) across all introduction scenarios. Similarly, with the exception of the two smallest RV presentation (17.1 cm³/dose), added transport capacity was required at both district and sub-district levels. Added transport capacity required across introduction scenarios from the provincial to district levels ranged from 1 L-187 L, and district to sub-district levels ranged from 1 L-13 L per shipment. Finally, only the smallest RV vaccine presentation (17.1 cm³/dose) had no appreciable effect on vaccine availability at sub-districts. All other RV and PCV-7 vaccines were too large for the current supply chain to handle without modifications such as increasing storage or transport capacity. Introducing these new vaccines to Thailand could have dynamic effects on the availability of all vaccines that may not be initially apparent to decision-makers.

Replacing the measles ten-dose vaccine presentation with the single-dose presentation in Thailand.

Introduced to minimize open vial wastage, single-dose vaccine vials require more storage space and therefore may affect vaccine supply chains (i.e., the series of steps and processes involved in distributing vaccines from manufacturers to patients). We developed a computational model of Thailand's Trang province vaccine supply chain to analyze the effects of switching from a ten-dose measles vaccine presentation to each of the following: a single-dose measles-mumps-rubella vaccine (which Thailand is currently considering) or a single-dose measles vaccine. While the Trang province vaccine supply chain would generally have enough storage and transport capacity to accommodate the switches, the added volume could push some locations' storage and transport space utilization close to their limits. Single-dose vaccines would allow for more precise ordering and decrease open vial waste, but decrease reserves for unanticipated demand. Moreover, the added disposal and administration costs could far outweigh the costs saved from preventing open vial wastage.

Evaluation of hepatitis A surveillance data and outbreak detection in Yunnan Province, China, from 2004 through 2009.

Hepatitis A outbreaks may be averted if detected early. The current study objectives were to evaluate the quality and timeliness of hepatitis A surveillance data from Yunnan Province, China, and to evaluate the sensitivity of the system for reporting outbreaks. The study period was from January 1, 2004 through December 31, 2009. Records from the National Infectious Diseases Surveillance System (NIDSS) were compared with those from local hospitals. The timeliness of case detecting, reporting and updating was also analyzed. The numbers of cases in a specific location during a moving time interval were computed to identify past outbreaks which were then validated against reported cases. The NIDSS received 38,095 reports during the study period; of which 6% were duplicates, and 26% had serological confirmation. The sensitivity and positive predictive value of cases were 96% and 98%, respectively. Time from onset to diagnosis remained constant over the 6-year period. Delays in reporting became shorter, and quality control of data improved over the period, but the timeliness of identifying duplicate records did not. Based on data from NIDSS, 9 outbreaks should have been reported, but only 3 were reported. The 3 reported outbreaks were shorter in duration than the 6 unreported ones, but the numbers of cases involved were not significantly different. Surveillance data needs improvement in updating timeliness. The system for outbreak detection and reporting needs to be improved.

Tetramethylenedisulfotetramine contaminated milk powder induced status epilepticus in two siblings and two dogs.

A cluster of patients with tetramethylenedisulfotetramine (TETS) intoxication was reported in Thailand. Two siblings, a-six-month-old boy and a-four-year-old girl, and their domestic dogs presented with status epilepticus within 10 minutes after ingesting milk prepared from the same tin container of milk powder. Although the cases showed normal neurodevelopment at one-year follow-up, physicians should be informed of this lethal neurotoxic agent, especially in an era of terroristic activity.

Epidemiology, clinical presentations and burden of rotavirus diarrhea in children under five seen at Ramathibodi Hospital, Thailand.

BACKGROUND: To be able to monitor the impact of rotavirus vaccines in the future, the authors designed the present study along with the Rotavirus Surveillance Project-Thailand. OBJECTIVE: To examine the epidemiology, clinical presentation, and direct medical cost of rotavirus-caused diarrhea in Thailand MATERIAL AND METHOD: Clinical presentations of all diarrhea cases during the study period were analyzed Rotavirus diarrhea was confirmed with polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. Serological typing was characterized by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS: Between April 2001 and March 2002, 239 under 5-year-old diarrhea cases admitted in Ramathibodi Hospital, Thailand were identified Clinical presentations and laboratory results were analyzed from 85 cases. Rotavirus was identified in 48.2% of the specimens. The most common serotypes were G9 (67%), G4 (23%), and GI (2%) respectively. The most common age of rotavirus diarrhea was 12-17 months. The seasonal peak was during November 2001 to January 2002 (the cool and dry season in Thailand). The predominant symptoms were watery diarrhea, fever, and vomiting. Rotavirus diarrhea tended to have more dehydration and metabolic acidosis than other causes. The G4 serotype was associated with the most severe presentations. CONCLUSION: The proportion of rotavirus diarrhea in the present study was 48%. The mean direct medical cost per episode of rotavirus diarrhea per child was 2,101 baht (approximately 52 US $).

Hospitalized infant morbidity in the Prospective Cohort Study of Thai Children Project.

BACKGROUND: Infant morbidity causes a substantial resource burden, however, its magnitude and pattern in developing countries is still unknown. MATERIAL AND METHOD: The authors prospectively followed a cohort of 2,739 children over a one-year period in three rural areas of Thailand to detect the hospitalized infant morbidity. RESULTS: The incidence of morbidity was 454.9/1,000 live births. The top five morbidities were perinatal conditions, respiratory diseases, pneumonia, infectious diarrhea, and disorders related to short gestation/ low birth weight, and had an incidence of 88.7, 35.4, 34.3, 30.3, and 23.0 diagnoses/1,000 live births, respectively. They accounted for 1,973 days (76.6%) of hospital stay Of all morbidities, 34.8% occurred in the early neonatal period and 3.1% occurred in the late neonatal period. CONCLUSION: The present study confirmed that perinatal conditions in the early neonatal period and pneumonia and diarrhea in the post neonatal period are still an important health problem. Further attempts for prevention and control will be needed.