Assessing the Nationwide COVID-19 Risk in Mexico through the Lens of Comorbidity by an XGBoost-Based Logistic Regression Model.

The outbreak of the new COVID-19 disease is a serious health problem that has affected a large part of the world population, especially older adults and people who suffer from a previous comorbidity. In this work, we proposed a classifier model that allows for deciding whether or not a patient might suffer from the COVID-19 disease, considering spatio-temporal variables, physical characteristics of the patients and the presence of previous diseases. We used XGBoost to maximize the likelihood function of the multivariate logistic regression model. The estimated and observed values of percentage occurrence of cases were very similar, and indicated that the proposed model was suitable to predict new cases (AUC = 0.75). The main results revealed that patients without comorbidities are less likely to be COVID-19 positive, unlike people with diabetes, obesity and pneumonia. The distribution function by age group showed that, during the first and second wave of COVID-19, young people aged ≤20 were the least affected by the pandemic, while the most affected were people between 20 and 40 years, followed by adults older than 40 years. In the case of the third and fourth wave, there was an increased risk for young individuals (under 20 years), while older adults over 40 years decreased their chances of infection. Estimates of positive COVID cases with both the XGBoost-LR model and the multivariate logistic regression model were used to create maps to visualize the spatial distribution of positive cases across the country. Spatial analysis was carried out to determine, through the data, the main geographical areas where a greater number of positive cases occurred. The results showed that the areas most affected by COVID-19 were in the central and northern regions of Mexico.

Design of a Low-Power Embedded System Based on a SoC-FPGA and the Honeybee Search Algorithm for Real-Time Video Tracking.

Video tracking involves detecting previously designated objects of interest within a sequence of image frames. It can be applied in robotics, unmanned vehicles, and automation, among other fields of interest. Video tracking is still regarded as an open problem due to a number of obstacles that still need to be overcome, including the need for high precision and real-time results, as well as portability and low-power demands. This work presents the design, implementation and assessment of a low-power embedded system based on an SoC-FPGA platform and the honeybee search algorithm (HSA) for real-time video tracking. HSA is a meta-heuristic that combines evolutionary computing and swarm intelligence techniques. Our findings demonstrated that the combination of SoC-FPGA and HSA reduced the consumption of computational resources, allowing real-time multiprocessing without a reduction in precision, and with the advantage of lower power consumption, which enabled portability. A starker difference was observed when measuring the power consumption. The proposed SoC-FPGA system consumed about 5 Watts, whereas the CPU-GPU system required more than 200 Watts. A general recommendation obtained from this research is to use SoC-FPGA over CPU-GPU to work with meta-heuristics in computer vision applications when an embedded solution is required.

Modeling spatial pattern of dengue in North Central Mexico using survey data and logistic regression.

Dengue is a major public health concern mainly in tropical and subtropical environments worldwide. Despite several attempts to prevent this disease occurring in tropical regions of Mexico, it has not yet been controlled. This work focused on spatial modeling of confirmed dengue fever cases that occurred during the period 2010-2014 in the Huasteca Potosina region of Mexico. Multivariable Logistic Regression Modeling (MLRM) was used to determine the relationship between explanatory variables and the presence/absence of dengue. Model performance was evaluated using the area under curve (AUC) of the relative operating characteristic (ROC); AUC > 0.95. A high spatial resolution map was created to reveal the most probable patterns of dengue risk. Our results can be used for targeted control and prevention programs at local and regional levels. This methodology can be applied to other major diseases that are spatially distributed in accordance with environmental factors.

Risk assessment methodology for trajectory planning in keyhole neurosurgery using genetic algorithms.

BACKGROUND: Preoperative assessment to find the safest trajectory in keyhole neurosurgery can reduce post operative complications. METHODS: We introduced a novel preoperative risk assessment semiautomated methodology based on the sum of N maximum risk values using a generic genetic algorithm for the safest trajectory search. RESULTS: A set of candidates trajectories were found for two surgical procedures. The trajectories search is done using a risk map considering the proximity of voxels within risk structures in multiple points and a genetic algorithm to avoid an exhaustive search. The trajectories were validated by a group of neurosurgeons. CONCLUSIONS: The trajectories obtained with the proposal method were shorter in 5% and have greater distance from the voxels within the blood vessels in 4.7%. The use of genetic algorithm (GA) speeds up the search for the safest trajectory, decreasing in 99.9% the time required for an exhaustive search.

Developing a Hierarchical Model for the Spatial Analysis of PM10 Pollution Extremes in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area.

We implemented a spatial model for analysing PM 10 maxima across the Mexico City metropolitan area during the period 1995-2016. We assumed that these maxima follow a non-identical generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and modeled the trend by introducing multivariate smoothing spline functions into the probability GEV distribution. A flexible, three-stage hierarchical Bayesian approach was developed to analyse the distribution of the PM 10 maxima in space and time. We evaluated the statistical model's performance by using a simulation study. The results showed strong evidence of a positive correlation between the PM 10 maxima and the longitude and latitude. The relationship between time and the PM 10 maxima was negative, indicating a decreasing trend over time. Finally, a high risk of PM 10 maxima presenting levels above 1000 µ g/m 3 (return period: 25 yr) was observed in the northwestern region of the study area.