Integrating Surface-Based Temperature and Vegetation Abundance Estimates into Land Cover Classifications for Conservation Efforts in Savanna Landscapes.

Southern African savannas are an important dryland ecosystem, as they account for up to 54% of the landscape, support a rich variety of biodiversity, and are areas of key landscape change. This paper aims to address the challenges of studying this highly gradient landscape with a grass-shrub-tree continuum. This study takes place in South Luangwa National Park (SLNP) in eastern Zambia. Discretely classifying land cover in savannas is notoriously difficult because vegetation species and structural groups may be very similar, giving off nearly indistinguishable spectral signatures. A support vector machine classification was tested and it produced an accuracy of only 34.48%. Therefore, we took a novel continuous approach in evaluating this change by coupling in situ data with Landsat-level normalized difference vegetation index data (NDVI, as a proxy for vegetation abundance) and blackbody surface temperature (BBST) data into a rule-based classification for November 2015 (wet season) that was 79.31% accurate. The resultant rule-based classification was used to extract mean Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI values by season over time from 2000 to 2016. This showed a distinct separation between each of the classes consistently over time, with woodland having the highest NDVI, followed by shrubland and then grassland, but an overall decrease in NDVI over time in all three classes. These changes may be due to a combination of precipitation, herbivory, fire, and humans. This study highlights the usefulness of a continuous time-series-based approach, which specifically integrates surface temperature and vegetation abundance-based NDVI data into a study of land cover and vegetation health for savanna landscapes, which will be useful for park managers and conservationists globally.

A spatiotemporal natural-human database to evaluate road development impacts in an Amazon trinational frontier.

Road construction and paving bring socio-economic benefits to receiving regions but can also be drivers of deforestation and land cover change. Road infrastructure often increases migration and illegal economic activities, which in turn affect local hydrology, wildlife, vegetation structure and dynamics, and biodiversity. To evaluate the full breadth of impacts from a coupled natural-human systems perspective, information is needed over a sufficient timespan to include pre- and post-road paving conditions. In addition, the spatial scale should be appropriate to link local human activities and biophysical system components, while also allowing for upscaling to the regional scale. A database was developed for the tri-national frontier in the Southwestern Amazon, where the Inter-Oceanic Highway was constructed through an area of high biological value and cultural diversity. Extensive socio-economic surveys and botanical field work are combined with remote sensing and reanalysis data to provide a rich and unique database, suitable for coupled natural-human systems research.

Using a coupled dynamic factor - random forest analysis (DFRFA) to reveal drivers of spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the semi-arid regions of southern Africa.

Understanding the drivers of large-scale vegetation change is critical to managing landscapes and key to predicting how projected climate and land use changes will affect regional vegetation patterns. This study aimed to improve our understanding of the role, magnitude, and spatial distribution of the key environmental and socioeconomic factors driving vegetation change in a southern African savanna. This research was conducted across the Kwando, Okavango and Zambezi catchments of southern Africa (Angola, Namibia, Botswana and Zambia) and explored vegetation cover change across the region from 2001-2010. A novel coupled analysis was applied to model the dynamic biophysical factors then to determine the discrete / social drivers of spatial heterogeneity on vegetation. Previous research applied Dynamic Factor Analysis (DFA), a multivariate times series dimension reduction technique, to ten years of monthly remotely sensed vegetation data (MODIS-derived normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI), and a suite of time-series (monthly) environmental covariates: precipitation, mean, minimum and maximum air temperature, soil moisture, relative humidity, fire and potential evapotranspiration. This initial research was performed at a regional scale to develop meso-scale models explaining mean regional NDVI patterns. The regional DFA predictions were compared to the fine-scale MODIS time series using Kendall's Tau and Sen's Slope to identify pixels where the DFA model we had developed, under or over predicted NDVI. Once identified, a Random Forest (RF) analysis using a series of static social and physical variables was applied to explain these remaining areas of under- and over- prediction to fully explore the drivers of heterogeneity in this savanna system. The RF analysis revealed the importance of protected areas, elevation, soil type, locations of higher population, roads, and settlements, in explaining fine scale differences in vegetation biomass. While the previously applied DFA generated a model of environmental variables driving NDVI, the RF work developed here highlighted human influences dominating that signal. The combined DFRFA model approach explains almost 90% of the variance in NDVI across this landscape from 2001-2010. Our methodology presents a unique coupling of dynamic and static factor analyses, yielding novel insights into savanna heterogeneity, and providing a tool of great potential for researchers and managers alike.

Comparison of the driving forces of spring phenology among savanna landscapes by including combined spatial and temporal heterogeneity.

Understanding spatial and temporal dynamics of land surface phenology (LSP) and its driving forces are critical for providing information relevant to short- and long-term decision making, particularly as it relates to climate response planning. With the third generation Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS3g) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data and environmental data from multiple sources, we investigated the spatio-temporal changes in the start of the growing season (SOS) in southern African savannas from 1982 through 2010 and determined its linkage to environmental factors using spatial panel data models. Overall, the SOS occurs earlier in the north compared to the south. This relates in part to the differences in ecosystems, with northern areas representing high rainfall and dense tree cover (mainly tree savannas), whereas the south has lower rainfall and sparse tree cover (mainly bush and grass savannas). From 1982 to 2010, an advanced trend was observed predominantly in the tree savanna areas of the north, whereas a delayed trend was chiefly found in the floodplain of the north and bush/grass savannas of the south. Different environmental drivers were detected within tree- and grass-dominated savannas, with a critical division being represented by the 800 mm isohyet. Our results supported the importance of water as a driver in this water-limited system, specifically preseason soil moisture, in determining the SOS in these water-limited, grass-dominated savannas. In addition, the research pointed to other, often overlooked, effects of preseason maximum and minimum temperatures on the SOS across the entire region. Higher preseason maximum temperatures led to an advance of the SOS, whereas the opposite effects of preseason minimum temperature were observed. With the rapid increase in global change research, this work will prove helpful for managing savanna landscapes and key to predicting how projected climate changes will affect regional vegetation phenology and productivity.

Beyond precipitation: physiographic gradients dictate the relative importance of environmental drivers on Savanna vegetation.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the drivers of large-scale vegetation change is critical to managing landscapes and key to predicting how projected climate and land use changes will affect regional vegetation patterns. This study aimed to improve our understanding of the role, magnitude and spatial distribution of the key environmental factors driving vegetation change in southern African savanna, and how they vary across physiographic gradients. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We applied Dynamic Factor Analysis (DFA), a multivariate times series dimension reduction technique to ten years of monthly remote sensing data (MODIS-derived normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) and a suite of environmental covariates: precipitation, mean and maximum temperature, soil moisture, relative humidity, fire and potential evapotranspiration. Monthly NDVI was described by cyclic seasonal variation with distinct spatiotemporal patterns in different physiographic regions. Results support existing work emphasizing the importance of precipitation, soil moisture and fire on NDVI, but also reveal overlooked effects of temperature and evapotranspiration, particularly in regions with higher mean annual precipitation. Critically, spatial distributions of the weights of environmental covariates point to a transition in the importance of precipitation and soil moisture (strongest in grass-dominated regions with precipitation<750 mm) to fire, potential evapotranspiration, and temperature (strongest in tree-dominated regions with precipitation>950 mm). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We quantified the combined spatiotemporal effects of an available suite of environmental drivers on NDVI across a large and diverse savanna region. The analysis supports known drivers of savanna vegetation but also uncovers important roles of temperature and evapotranspiration. Results highlight the utility of applying the DFA approach to remote sensing products for regional analyses of landscape change in the context of global environmental change. With the dramatic increase in global change research, this methodology augurs well for further development and application of spatially explicit time series modeling to studies at the intersection of ecology and remote sensing.

What price carbon reduction?

Jane Southworth, senior associate, environment group, and Michael Conroy Harris, senior legal manager, construction group, at international law firm Eversheds, consider the key steps NHS Trusts need to take to prepare to forthcoming Carbon Reduction Commitment (CRC) scheme, and question what drivers currently exist to encourage delivery of healthcare buildings that play their part in carbon reduction.

Monitoring parks through remote sensing: studies in Nepal and Honduras.

The effectiveness of parks as management regimes is hotly contested. Much of the current discussion centered around comparisons of management regimes can be traced to a dearth of cross-site quantitative evaluations. Remote sensing provides a particularly effective tool for this purpose, yet analysis of remotely sensed data requires fieldwork to interpret human activities and the socioeconomic and political contexts that relate to land cover change. This paper examines the effect of establishment of the Celaque National Park, Honduras, and the Royal Chitwan National Park buffer zone, Nepal, on limiting deforestation. In Celaque, the park itself has been largely successful in maintaining forest cover. However, recent changes in land use patterns have led to increasing pressure on the park boundaries, exacerbated by the lack of involvement of local residents. In the Royal Chitwan National Park, in contrast, participatory approaches towards co-management have been implemented over the past decade in the park buffer zone. With significant incomes derived from ecotourism, complete protection of the buffer zone forest has been adopted, leading to significant regrowth of tree cover. However, local decision-making power is limited, and buffer zone management has largely proven successful due to the investment and support provided by international donor agencies. These two case studies demonstrate the utility of remote sensing and Geographical Information Systems analysis in providing a spatiotemporal perspective for assessing management policies. They also demonstrate the importance of fieldwork to provide a nuanced understanding of the socioeconomic and institutional conditions affecting the outcomes of forest management regimes.