Validação de conteúdo e de construto de sinais enunciativos de aquisição da linguagem no segundo ano de vida / Content and construct validation of language acquisition enunciative signs in the second year of life

RESUMO Objetivo Analisar a validade de conteúdo e de construto de sinais enunciativos de aquisição da linguagem para crianças de 13 a 24 meses. Método Os sinais criados foram submetidos à avaliação de clareza e pertinência por seis juízes experts em aquisição da linguagem na perspectiva enunciativa. A partir do seu julgamento foi produzida uma versão experimental que foi aplicada na análise de vídeos de interações mãe-bebê/examinador, com duração de 15 minutos, de 77 díades mãe-bebê na faixa etária de 13 a 18 meses e 89 díades na faixa etária de 19 a 24 meses. A validação de fidedignidade e consistência interna foi realizada pela análise de 10% da mostra por dois juízes fonoaudiólogos. A validação do construto foi realiza pela análise fatorial efetivada sobre a amostra total. Os dados foram analisados no Statistica 9.1 e PASW 17.0. Resultados Todos os sinais foram considerados claros e pertinentes pelos juízes experts. A análise de fidedignidade apontou a concordância quase perfeita (0,8 ≤ Kappa ≥ 1,0) para a maior parte dos sinais. A consistência interna para a Fase 3 apresentou alpha=0,771 considerada alta e Fase 4 apresentou alpha=0,917 limítrofe a muita alta. A análise fatorial da fase 3 revelou 2 fatores, explicando 59,1% da variância total e a fase 4 revelou 1 fator, explicando 75,7%. Conclusão Observou-se validade de conteúdo e de construto para cinco dos doze sinais na Fase 3 e para todos sinais na fase 4.

ABSTRACT Purpose To analyze the content and construct validity of enunciative signs of language acquisition for children aged 13 to 24 months. Methods The signs created were subjected to an assessment of clarity and relevance by six expert judges in language acquisition from an enunciative perspective. Based on their judgment, an experimental version was produced that was applied to the analysis of videos of mother-baby / examiner interactions, lasting 15 minutes, of 77 mother-baby dyads aged 13 to 18 months and 89 dyads in the age range aged between 19 and 24 months. The validity of reliability and internal consistency was performed by analyzing 10% of the sample by two speech therapists. The construct validation was carried out by the factorial analysis carried out on the total sample. The data were analyzed in Statistica 9.1 and PASW 17.0. Results All signs were considered clear and relevant by the expert judges. The reliability analysis showed an almost perfect agreement (0.8 ≤ Kappa ≥ 1.0) for most signs. The internal consistency for Phase 3 showed alpha = 0.771 considered high and Phase 4 presented alpha = 0.917 bordering on very high. The factor analysis of phase 3 revealed 2 factors, explaining 59.1% of the total variance and phase 4 revealed 1 factor, explaining 75.7%. Conclusion Content and construct validity were observed for five of the twelve signs in Phase 3 and for all signs in Phase 4.

Content and construct validation of language acquisition enunciative signs in the second year of life. / Validação de conteúdo e de construto de sinais enunciativos de aquisição da linguagem no segundo ano de vida.

PURPOSE: To analyze the content and construct validity of enunciative signs of language acquisition for children aged 13 to 24 months. METHODS: The signs created were subjected to an assessment of clarity and relevance by six expert judges in language acquisition from an enunciative perspective. Based on their judgment, an experimental version was produced that was applied to the analysis of videos of mother-baby / examiner interactions, lasting 15 minutes, of 77 mother-baby dyads aged 13 to 18 months and 89 dyads in the age range aged between 19 and 24 months. The validity of reliability and internal consistency was performed by analyzing 10% of the sample by two speech therapists. The construct validation was carried out by the factorial analysis carried out on the total sample. The data were analyzed in Statistica 9.1 and PASW 17.0. RESULTS: All signs were considered clear and relevant by the expert judges. The reliability analysis showed an almost perfect agreement (0.8 ≤ Kappa ≥ 1.0) for most signs. The internal consistency for Phase 3 showed alpha = 0.771 considered high and Phase 4 presented alpha = 0.917 bordering on very high. The factor analysis of phase 3 revealed 2 factors, explaining 59.1% of the total variance and phase 4 revealed 1 factor, explaining 75.7%. CONCLUSION: Content and construct validity were observed for five of the twelve signs in Phase 3 and for all signs in Phase 4.

OBJETIVO: Analisar a validade de conteúdo e de construto de sinais enunciativos de aquisição da linguagem para crianças de 13 a 24 meses. MÉTODO: Os sinais criados foram submetidos à avaliação de clareza e pertinência por seis juízes experts em aquisição da linguagem na perspectiva enunciativa. A partir do seu julgamento foi produzida uma versão experimental que foi aplicada na análise de vídeos de interações mãe-bebê/examinador, com duração de 15 minutos, de 77 díades mãe-bebê na faixa etária de 13 a 18 meses e 89 díades na faixa etária de 19 a 24 meses. A validação de fidedignidade e consistência interna foi realizada pela análise de 10% da mostra por dois juízes fonoaudiólogos. A validação do construto foi realiza pela análise fatorial efetivada sobre a amostra total. Os dados foram analisados no Statistica 9.1 e PASW 17.0. RESULTADOS: Todos os sinais foram considerados claros e pertinentes pelos juízes experts. A análise de fidedignidade apontou a concordância quase perfeita (0,8 ≤ Kappa ≥ 1,0) para a maior parte dos sinais. A consistência interna para a Fase 3 apresentou alpha=0,771 considerada alta e Fase 4 apresentou alpha=0,917 limítrofe a muita alta. A análise fatorial da fase 3 revelou 2 fatores, explicando 59,1% da variância total e a fase 4 revelou 1 fator, explicando 75,7%. CONCLUSÃO: Observou-se validade de conteúdo e de construto para cinco dos doze sinais na Fase 3 e para todos sinais na fase 4.

Fossil fuels consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in G7 countries: Empirical evidence from ARDL bounds testing approach.

This research determines the intertemporal relationships caused by the coal, oil, and natural gas consumption in the carbon dioxide emission by the G7 countries from 1965 to 2018. Auto-regressive and Distributed Lags models and Bound test were used to detect cointegration and understand the dynamic effect. Due to structural breaks occurred in the variables, two dummy variables for the periods of breaks, 1978 and 1990 were incorporated respectively. Positive causality was identified, in the sense that the consumption of fossil fuels provides an increase in carbon dioxide emissions. Short-term elasticities indicate that an increase of 1 percentage point in the consumption of oil, coal, and natural gas will cause, respectively, an increase of 0.4823%, 0.3140%, and 0.1717% in carbon dioxide emissions. In the long run, the increase of 1 percentage point in the consumption of oil, coal, and natural gas will cause, respectively, an increase of 0.4924%, 0.2692%, and 0.1829% in carbon dioxide emissions. The error correction model (ECM = -0.4739) indicates that 47.39% of a shock in the carbon dioxide emissions variable is resolved in one year and after 2 years, carbon dioxide emissions return to long term equilibrium.

Soybean Root Growth in Response to Chemical, Physical, and Biological Soil Variations.

Environmental conditions affect crop yield, and water deficit has been highlighted by the negative impact on soybean grain production. Radicial growth in greater volume and depth can be an alternative to minimize losses caused by a lack of water. Therefore, knowledge of how soybean roots behave before the chemical, physical, and biological attributes of the soil can help establish managements that benefit in-depth root growth. The objective was to evaluate the growth of soybean roots in response to chemical, physical, and biological variations in the soil, in different soil locations and depths. Six experiments were conducted in different locations. Soil samples were collected every 5 cm of soil up to 60 cm of soil depth for chemical, physical, and biological analysis. The roots were collected every 5 cm deep up to 45 cm deep from the ground. The six sites presented unsatisfactory values of pH and organic matter, and presented phosphorus, potassium, and calcium at high concentrations in the first centimeters of soil depth. The total porosity of the soil was above 0.50 m3 m-3, but the proportion of the volume of macropores, micropores, and cryptopores resulted in soils with resistance to penetration to the roots. Microbial biomass was higher on the soil surface when compared to deeper soil layers, however, the metabolic quotient was higher in soil depth, showing that microorganisms in depth have low ability to incorporate carbon into microbial biomass. Root growth occurred in a greater proportion in the first centimeters of soil-depth, possibly because the soil attributes that favor the root growth is concentrated on the soil surface.

How atmospheric pollutants impact the development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer: A var-based model.

The impact of air pollution on humans is a worrisome factor that has gained prominence over the years due to the importance of the topic to society. Lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease are among the diseases associated with pollution that increase the mortality rate in Brazil and worldwide. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the impacts of air pollutants on mortality rates from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung cancer (LC) using vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling. The adjusted model was a VAR(1) and, according to the Granger causality test, the air pollutants selected were PM10, O3, CO, NO2, and SO2. The shocks applied to the variables O3, using the impulse response function, negatively impacted COPD; in the eighth period, which is stabilized. The LC variable suffered more significant variations from O3 and after a shock in this variable, an initially negative response in LC occurred and the series stabilized in period nine. After one year, 20.19% of COPD variance was explained by O3. After twelve months, the atmospheric pollutant O3 represented 5.00% and NO2 represented 4.02% of LC variance. Moreover, the variables that caused the highest impact on COPD and LC mortality rates were O3 and NO2, indicating that air pollution influences the clinical state of people who have these diseases and even contributes to their development. The VAR model was able to identify the air pollutants that have the most significant impact on the diseases analyzed and explained the interrelationship between them.

Construct validation of enunciative signs of language acquisition for the first year of life.

PURPOSE: To perform the construct validation of enunciative signs of language acquisition for children aged 3 to 12 months. METHOD: The study sample consisted of 94 mother-infant dyads for the analysis of Phase 1 (3-6 months) signs and 61 dyads for the analysis of Phase 2 (7-12 months) signs. Data collection was performed through analysis of the interaction between mothers and infants in play situation recorded in 15-min videos in the predicted phases, with attribution of value types of present or absent to each sign analyzed. The collected data were organized on a spreadsheet and then converted to computer applications for factor analysis. RESULTS: Factor analysis indicated the existence of two factors named "mother" and "infant" both for Phase 1 signs (explaining 71.9% of the variation) - with three signs relevant for the "infant" factor and one sign relevant for the "mother" factor, and for Phase 2 signs (explaining 74.4% of the variation) - with one sign relevant for the "infant" factor and one sign relevant for the "mother" factor. CONCLUSION: Construct validation showed that one "mother" factor and one "infant" factor were able to distinguish between at-risk and not-at-risk groups in both phases analyzed, which suggests that the absence of these signs may pose risks to language acquisition.

Persistence effect determination of variability in forecasting of agricultural and road machinery national production / Determinação do efeito de persistência da variabilidade na previsão da produção nacional de máquinas agrícolas e rodoviárias

ABSTRACT: The objective of this research was to forecast the Brazilian national production of agricultural and road machinery in the short term by BOX & JENKINS methodology and determine the persistence effect. Data were obtained at National Association of Automotive Vehicle Manufacturers (ANFAVEA) from January 1960 to October 2019, totaling 718 monthly observations. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) methodology were used. The ARIMA (2,1,1)-ARCH (2) model was fitted and persistence of 0.60 was determined, showing that the instability in the series will be for a long period of time.

RESUMO: O objetivo desta pesquisa é prever a produção nacional de máquinas agrícolas e rodoviárias no Brasil, no curto prazo por meio da metodologia BOX & JENKINS e determinar o efeito de persistência na série. Os dados foram obtidos no site da Associação Nacional dos Fabricantes de Veículos Automotores (ANFAVEA) no período de janeiro de 1960 a outubro de 2019, totalizando 718 observações mensais. Os modelos Autoregressivos Integrados e de Médias Móveis (ARIMA) e de Heteroscedasticidade Condicional Autoregressiva (ARCH) foram utilizados para ajustar a média e a variabilidade da série. O modelo ARIMA(2,1,1) - ARCH(2) foi selecionado por meio das estatísticas de ajustes e a persistência determinada foi de 0,60 mostrando que a instabilidade na série é duradoura.

The impact of electric generation capacity by renewable and non-renewable energy in Brazilian economic growth.

Renewable sources are relevant in a country's energy planning because they are linked to the creation of opportunities for technological, economic, and productive development guided by the principles of sustainability. Thus, the aim of this study was to investigate the relation between electric generation capacity by renewable and non-renewable energies and Brazilian socioeconomic variables. The analysis of the interrelationships between electricity generation capacity and economic growth in Brazil, from April 2009 to March 2017, was carried out by the vector autoregressive and autoregressive distributed lag methodologies. It was verified that the variance of employment is explained by renewable sources: hydroelectric in 7.71%, biomass in 1.99%, wind energy in 3.13%, and solar energy in 10.58%. While, the GDP variance is explained in 3.15% by hydroelectric energy, 0.06% by biomass, 1.70% by wind energy, and 17.38% by solar energy. The export variance is explained by renewable sources: hydroelectric 2.48%, biomass 0.39%, wind energy 2.34%, and solar energy 17.58%. Finally, the variance of the minimum wage is explained by hydroelectric energy in 1.48%, biomass in 5.09%, wind energy in 9.09%, and solar energy in 10.67%. An ARDL (1, 1, 2, 0, 0, 0, 3, 2, 0, 2, 0, 2) model was also adjusted for natural gas, with AIC (13.082) and BIC (13.739), and the ARDL (1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3, 0, 0, 4) model adjusted for hydroelectric power, with AIC (13.633) and BIC (14.189), considering the variables' order cited above. Through the adjustment of the ARDL model, it was verified that there is a long-term influence of socioeconomic variables on electricity production variables, both renewable and non-renewable ones. The analysis of the impulse response function and the variance decomposition allowed us to verify that the installed capacity for production of electric energy exerts influence on Brazilian socioeconomic variables considered in this study.

Economic feasibility of biogas production in swine farms using time series analysis / Viabilidade econômica da produção de biogás em granjas de suínos, por meio da análise de séries temporais

ABSTRACT: This study aimed to measure the economic feasibility and the time needed to return capital invested for the installation of a swine manure treatment system, these values originated the sale of carbon credits and/or of compensation of electric energy in swine farms, using the Box-Jenkins forecast models. It was found that the use of biogas is a viable option in a large scale with machines that operate daily for 10h or more, being the return period between 70 to 80 months. Time series analysis models are important to anticipate the series under study behavior, providing the swine breeder/investor means to reduce the financial investment risk as well as helping to decrease the production costs. Moreover, this process can be seen as another source of income and enable the breeder to be self-sufficient in the continuous supply of electric energy, which is very valuable nowadays considering that breeders are now increasingly using various technologies.

RESUMO: Esta pesquisa tem por objetivo mostrar a viabilidade econômica e o tempo necessário de retorno do capital investido para a instalação de um sistema de tratamento de dejetos suínos, valores estes originados da venda de créditos de carbono e/ou de compensação de energia elétrica em granjas de suínos, utilizando os modelos de previsão de Box e Jenkins. Identificou-se que é viável a utilização do biogás em uma escala de produção com um funcionamento diário dos equipamentos de 10 horas ou mais e o período de retorno entre 70 a 80 meses. O uso de modelos de previsão de séries temporais foi importante, pois antecipou o comportamento da série em estudo, fornecendo ao suinocultor/investidor subsídios para que o investimento seja feito de modo a reduzir o risco, nos aspectos financeiros e na redução dos custos de produção, bem como possibilitando uma outra fonte de renda e a autonomia no fornecimento de energia elétrica ininterruptamente, o que é necessário nos sistemas de criação cada vez mais tecnificados.

Transmissão e a influência do volume dos estoques públicos sobre o preço do arroz no Brasil / Transmission and influence of volume of public stocks on the price of rice in Brazil

Este trabalho analisou o mecanismo de transmissão dos preços dos principais estados produtores de arroz no Brasil (Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso e Santa Catarina), como variáveis endógenas, e volume dos estoques públicos no Brasil, como variável exógena, para o período de julho de 2004 até dezembro de 2010. A análise compreende o uso da metodologia VAR-VEC para identificar o número de defasagens utilizadas e verificar se existem co-integrações entre as variáveis, por meio do Teste de Co-integração de Johansen. Testou-se a existência de causalidade entre as séries pelo método de causalidade de Granger. Aplicou-se a decomposição da variância do erro de previsão e a função impulso-resposta com decomposição de Cholesky para analisar a relação entre os preços dos estados e volume em estoques públicos. Com a aplicação da metodologia proposta, pode-se observar que o preço do arroz no estado do Rio Grande do Sul influencia no preço no estado de Santa Catarina e no volume armazenado em estoques públicos e é influenciado pelo preço do arroz no estado do Mato Grosso.

This study examined the mechanism of prices from major rice producing states in Brazil (Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso and Santa Catarina), as endogenous variables, and volume of public stocks in Brazil, as exogenous variables for the period July 2004 until December 2010. The analysis includes the use of VAR-VEC methodology to identify the number of lags used and check for co-integration among variables through the test of Johansen Co-integration. We tested the existence of causality between variables by the method of Granger causality. We applied the variance decomposition of forecast error and impulse-response function with Cholesky decomposition to analyze the relationship between prices and volume of the states in public stocks. With the proposed methodology, one can observe that the price of rice in the state of Rio Grande do Sul to the price in the state of Santa Catarina and the volume stored in stockpiles and is influenced by the price of rice in the state of Mato Grosso.

Previsão do preço dos principais grãos produzidos no Rio Grande do Sul / Forcasting the price of major grains produced in Rio Grande do Sul

Objetivou-se realizar previsões para o ano de 2007, referente ao preço das principais culturas das lavouras temporárias desenvolvidas no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Os dados-base da quantidade produzida dos principais grãos analisados foram a média anual, de 1995 a 2006, as previsões de preços, de janeiro de 1995 a dezembro de 2006. Para realização das previsões do preço das culturas de soja, arroz e milho no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul foi utilizada Metodologia Box & Jenkins. Para as culturas destacadas, a metodologia captou vários modelos significativos, mas por meiodos Critérios Penalizadores, AIC, SBC e Erro Quadrado Médio, escolheu-se o melhor modelo para cada série, sendo ideal o modelo ARIMA (0,1,2)(0,1,0) para a soja; o modelo SARIMA(1,1,0)(1,0,1) para o arroz e o modelo ARIMA (2,1,1)(0,1,0) para o milho.

The aim of this research was to make predictions for 2007, referring to the price of temporary crops developed in the Rio Grande do Sul state. The data-base of the amout produced of the major grain analyzed were the annual average1995 to 2006 and price produced, from January 1995 to December 2006. To accomplish the forecasts in relation to prices of soybean, rice and sweetcorn in RS state, it was used the Box & Jenkins methodology. To such cultivations, the methodoly showed many significant models, however, through the penalizing criterias, AIC e SBC, in addition to the square average error, it was possible to choose the best model for each serie, being the model ARIMA (0,1,2)(0,1,0) to soybean; the model SARIMA (1,1,0)(1,0,1) to rice and the model ARIMA (2,1,1)(0,1,0) to sweetcorn.