Assessing number-specific error in the recall of onset of last menstrual period.

The goal of this investigation was to determine whether women who did not report preferred numbers for their last menstrual period (LMP) may be a group of women who are particularly careful in keeping track of their menstrual cycles and therefore have more accurate LMP dating--based on a comparison with ultrasound examinations. We also sought to estimate the frequency with which preferred numbers are reported in different sources of data and for different subgroups of women. First, we examined the 1987 California birth certificates in which LMP was collected at the time of birth (n = 504853). We also examined the records of 43880 women participating in the California Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) Screening Program between 1986 and 1987, for whom gestational ages based on both early ultrasound examination and LMP were collected before 20 weeks of gestation. In the 1987 California birth certificates, seven numbers--1, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 28--were recorded more frequently than expected. An estimated 12.9% of these records had preferred numbers. The most frequently recorded number was 15, occurring 2.5 times more often than expected (P < 0.01). In the data of the AFP Screening Program, the same seven numbers were preferred, and approximately 7.9% of records were affected by number preference. Comparisons with measurements of gestational age based on ultrasound demonstrated that LMP-based gestational ages in which non-preferred numbers are reported for the LMP are slightly more accurate than those in which preferred numbers are reported (P < 0.01). In most cases, number preference appears to introduce small errors into measurements of gestational age, probably as a result of rounding. Thus, the effect of number preference may be primarily of interest to research studies in which small errors in the measurement of gestational age will have a significant impact on findings.

Public health workforce information: a state-level study.

A two-stage sample survey was used to estimate the size of Texas' professional public health workforce and to describe its composition in terms of employment settings, job characteristics, and individual characteristics. The estimated 17,700 public health professionals employed in 1995 represented approximately three percent of the state's total health workforce. About 55 percent of all these professionals worked in agencies that provide population-based public health services. An estimated seven percent had formal public health education. These findings raise issues concerning the numerical adequacy of the state's supply of public health professionals, the adequacy of their educational preparation, and the human resources capacity of the state's official public health agencies.

A triethnic comparison of intracerebral hemorrhage mortality in Texas.

Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is a significant cause of stroke death. Little is known about the relative risk of Hispanic Americans (HAs), African Americans (AAs), and non-Hispanic whites (NHWs) for ICH mortality. Based on the high prevalence of hypertension in AAs and the low prevalence of hypertension in HAs, we expected AAs to have the highest ICH mortality rates and HAs the lowest. Race/ethnic age-specific ICH mortality rates were calculated from Texas vital statistics for the years 1980 through 1995. Rate ratios (RRs) are reported with NHWs as the referent group. There were 15,042 deaths due to ICH in Texas during this time. In the 45- to 59-year age group, AAs had an RR of 4. The RR for HAs was 1.9. In the 60- to 74-year age range, AAs had an RR of 1.7 and HAs had an RR of 1.3. In the 75+ age group, the rates were similar among all three race/ethnic groups. We conclude that there is a significant interaction of age and race/ethnicity for ICH. At younger ages, AAs and HAs have the highest ICH mortality rates. Access to care and socioeconomic status may play a role in the unexpectedly high ICH mortality rates in HAs.

African Americans and women have the highest stroke mortality in Texas.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Hispanic American (HA), African American (AA), and non-Hispanic white (NHW) populations are well represented in Texas. The Texas HA population is 95% Mexican American, affording comparison with other Hispanic populations. From risk factor profiles we expected stroke mortality to be highest in AAs and HAs. We also expected stroke mortality to be considerably higher for men than for women based on previous data. METHODS: We used International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, codes 430 to 438 to search Texas vital statistics data for the 5-year period from 1988 through 1992. Race/ethnic differences are presented in age- and sex-specific format to avoid masking the important interaction of age and sex with stroke mortality. RESULTS: Women constituted 61% of the 40,346 stroke deaths in Texas during this period. The ratio of stroke deaths for women versus men approximates the ratio of women to men in the population. AAs had a threefold to fourfold increased stroke mortality relative to NHWs at young ages. At older ages, when stroke mortality is the highest, the stroke mortality rate in NHWs approached the stroke mortality rate of AAs. HAs had a significantly higher rate of stroke mortality at younger ages relative to NHWs but a significantly lower rate at older ages. CONCLUSIONS: Measures to prevent stroke mortality should emphasize its predilection for young AAs and women. A rigorous surveillance project is needed to determine whether stroke mortality is underestimated in the HA population.

Supply and distribution of primary care physicians and medical school enrollments in Texas.

The search for policy options to contain health-care costs has sparked renewed national interest in reducing medical school enrollments. Concurrently, the goals of improving the specialty and geographic distribution of physicians have proved elusive both at the state and national levels. This study reexamines and reaffirms the conclusions of an earlier study that suggested enrollment reductions in Texas might decrease rather than increase the supply of primary care and rural physicians.

Estimating the impact of state manpower policy: a case study of reducing medical school enrollments.

Perceptions of an impending oversupply of physicians have prompted proposals to reduce medical school enrollments in a number of states. Most of these states are also concerned with improving the specialty and geographic distribution of their medical manpower. The present study provides estimates of the effects of reduced numbers of in-state medical school graduates upon the future supply of physicians in Texas, and examines the medical school origin, medical specialty, and practice location of selected groups of Texas physicians. The results suggest that in Texas enrollment reductions would have no significant impact on physician supply over the next 15 years, and might actually prove counterproductive in altering physician distribution. The analysis of Texas data illuminates the unintended consequences likely to accompany a policy option that has been widely embraced by state officials largely on the basis of its intuitive appeal.

Flight-skill decay and recurrent training.

This article addresses the problem of flight-skill decay. The complexity of the problem is outlined with regard to identifying the nature and extent of decayed skills. It is suggested that cognitive/procedural skills are more prone than control-oriented skills to decay over periods of disuse. Effective recurrent training methods offer the most promise in forestalling loss of proficiency. Several such methods are described, and the importance of cognitive training is emphasized. Finally, criteria are noted for evaluating the utility of recurrent training media. The theories and practical measures discussed apply to many skills other than those of flying.