The selection landscape and genetic legacy of ancient Eurasians.

The Holocene (beginning around 12,000 years ago) encompassed some of the most significant changes in human evolution, with far-reaching consequences for the dietary, physical and mental health of present-day populations. Using a dataset of more than 1,600 imputed ancient genomes1, we modelled the selection landscape during the transition from hunting and gathering, to farming and pastoralism across West Eurasia. We identify key selection signals related to metabolism, including that selection at the FADS cluster began earlier than previously reported and that selection near the LCT locus predates the emergence of the lactase persistence allele by thousands of years. We also find strong selection in the HLA region, possibly due to increased exposure to pathogens during the Bronze Age. Using ancient individuals to infer local ancestry tracts in over 400,000 samples from the UK Biobank, we identify widespread differences in the distribution of Mesolithic, Neolithic and Bronze Age ancestries across Eurasia. By calculating ancestry-specific polygenic risk scores, we show that height differences between Northern and Southern Europe are associated with differential Steppe ancestry, rather than selection, and that risk alleles for mood-related phenotypes are enriched for Neolithic farmer ancestry, whereas risk alleles for diabetes and Alzheimer's disease are enriched for Western hunter-gatherer ancestry. Our results indicate that ancient selection and migration were large contributors to the distribution of phenotypic diversity in present-day Europeans.

Detection of chromosomal aneuploidy in ancient genomes.

Ancient DNA is a valuable tool for investigating genetic and evolutionary history that can also provide detailed profiles of the lives of ancient individuals. In this study, we develop a generalised computational approach to detect aneuploidies (atypical autosomal and sex chromosome karyotypes) in the ancient genetic record and distinguish such karyotypes from contamination. We confirm that aneuploidies can be detected even in low-coverage genomes ( ~ 0.0001-fold), common in ancient DNA. We apply this method to ancient skeletal remains from Britain to document the first instance of mosaic Turner syndrome (45,X0/46,XX) in the ancient genetic record in an Iron Age individual sequenced to average 9-fold coverage, the earliest known incidence of an individual with a 47,XYY karyotype from the Early Medieval period, as well as individuals with Klinefelter (47,XXY) and Down syndrome (47,XY, + 21). Overall, our approach provides an accessible and automated framework allowing for the detection of individuals with aneuploidies, which extends previous binary approaches. This tool can facilitate the interpretation of burial context and living conditions, as well as elucidate past perceptions of biological sex and people with diverse biological traits.

Integrative GWAS and co-localisation analysis suggests novel genes associated with age-related multimorbidity.

Advancing age is the greatest risk factor for developing multiple age-related diseases. Therapeutic approaches targeting the underlying pathways of ageing, rather than individual diseases, may be an effective way to treat and prevent age-related morbidity while reducing the burden of polypharmacy. We harness the Open Targets Genetics Portal to perform a systematic analysis of nearly 1,400 genome-wide association studies (GWAS) mapped to 34 age-related diseases and traits, identifying genetic signals that are shared between two or more of these traits. Using locus-to-gene (L2G) mapping, we identify 995 targets with shared genetic links to age-related diseases and traits, which are enriched in mechanisms of ageing and include known ageing and longevity-related genes. Of these 995 genes, 128 are the target of an approved or investigational drug, 526 have experimental evidence of binding pockets or are predicted to be tractable, and 341 have no existing tractability evidence, representing underexplored genes which may reveal novel biological insights and therapeutic opportunities. We present these candidate targets for exploration and prioritisation in a web application.

Balancing selection on genomic deletion polymorphisms in humans.

A key question in biology is why genomic variation persists in a population for extended periods. Recent studies have identified examples of genomic deletions that have remained polymorphic in the human lineage for hundreds of millennia, ostensibly owing to balancing selection. Nevertheless, genome-wide investigation of ancient and possibly adaptive deletions remains an imperative exercise. Here, we demonstrate an excess of polymorphisms in present-day humans that predate the modern human-Neanderthal split (ancient polymorphisms), which cannot be explained solely by selectively neutral scenarios. We analyze the adaptive mechanisms that underlie this excess in deletion polymorphisms. Using a previously published measure of balancing selection, we show that this excess of ancient deletions is largely owing to balancing selection. Based on the absence of signatures of overdominance, we conclude that it is a rare mode of balancing selection among ancient deletions. Instead, more complex scenarios involving spatially and temporally variable selective pressures are likely more common mechanisms. Our results suggest that balancing selection resulted in ancient deletions harboring disproportionately more exonic variants with GWAS (genome-wide association studies) associations. We further found that ancient deletions are significantly enriched for traits related to metabolism and immunity. As a by-product of our analysis, we show that deletions are, on average, more deleterious than single nucleotide variants. We can now argue that not only is a vast majority of common variants shared among human populations, but a considerable portion of biologically relevant variants has been segregating among our ancestors for hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of years.

The persistence of versions of genes that cause severe disease in human populations has long perplexed scientists. It is common for many versions of a gene to exist. But scientists expect that over time natural selection will eliminate versions of genes harmful to human health. Sometimes, there are good reasons that a disease-causing gene may persist. For example, having two copies of a particular gene variant causes a condition, called sickle cell disease. But having one sickle cell-causing copy of the gene and one non-disease-causing copy protects against malaria. As a result, the version of the gene that causes sickle cell is more common in people from areas where malaria is prevalent despite the risks to people who end up with two copies. Scientists call this phenomenon balancing selection because trade-offs in the gene's benefits and risks cause it to persist in the population. Aqil et al. show that balancing selection has likely caused many ancient gene variants to persist in human populations. In the experiments, Aqil et al. scoured the genomes of hundreds of modern humans from around the world and four groups of ancient human ancestors, including Neanderthals and Denisovans. The experiments looked for structural changes in genes, like deletions, that date back to more than 700,000 years ago ­ before modern humans split from their ancestors. They found large numbers of such ancient genes in modern humans. Using computer modeling, Aqil et al. showed that these ancient genes likely persist because of balancing selection. Many of these ancient genes regulate the immune response and metabolism. These genes may protect against infectious diseases outbreaks and starvation, which have occurred periodically throughout human history. But these same genes may cause immune or metabolic diseases in modern humans not currently facing these threats. The experiments show how such biological trade-offs have shaped human evolution and reveal that modern human populations, regardless of race or region of origin, share the same genetic variation that already our ancestors carried within them.

Grey wolf genomic history reveals a dual ancestry of dogs.

The grey wolf (Canis lupus) was the first species to give rise to a domestic population, and they remained widespread throughout the last Ice Age when many other large mammal species went extinct. Little is known, however, about the history and possible extinction of past wolf populations or when and where the wolf progenitors of the present-day dog lineage (Canis familiaris) lived1-8. Here we analysed 72 ancient wolf genomes spanning the last 100,000 years from Europe, Siberia and North America. We found that wolf populations were highly connected throughout the Late Pleistocene, with levels of differentiation an order of magnitude lower than they are today. This population connectivity allowed us to detect natural selection across the time series, including rapid fixation of mutations in the gene IFT88 40,000-30,000 years ago. We show that dogs are overall more closely related to ancient wolves from eastern Eurasia than to those from western Eurasia, suggesting a domestication process in the east. However, we also found that dogs in the Near East and Africa derive up to half of their ancestry from a distinct population related to modern southwest Eurasian wolves, reflecting either an independent domestication process or admixture from local wolves. None of the analysed ancient wolf genomes is a direct match for either of these dog ancestries, meaning that the exact progenitor populations remain to be located.

Multi-ancestry genetic study of type 2 diabetes highlights the power of diverse populations for discovery and translation.

We assembled an ancestrally diverse collection of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in 180,834 affected individuals and 1,159,055 controls (48.9% non-European descent) through the Diabetes Meta-Analysis of Trans-Ethnic association studies (DIAMANTE) Consortium. Multi-ancestry GWAS meta-analysis identified 237 loci attaining stringent genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-9), which were delineated to 338 distinct association signals. Fine-mapping of these signals was enhanced by the increased sample size and expanded population diversity of the multi-ancestry meta-analysis, which localized 54.4% of T2D associations to a single variant with >50% posterior probability. This improved fine-mapping enabled systematic assessment of candidate causal genes and molecular mechanisms through which T2D associations are mediated, laying the foundations for functional investigations. Multi-ancestry genetic risk scores enhanced transferability of T2D prediction across diverse populations. Our study provides a step toward more effective clinical translation of T2D GWAS to improve global health for all, irrespective of genetic background.

Sex-specific phenotypic effects and evolutionary history of an ancient polymorphic deletion of the human growth hormone receptor.

The common deletion of the third exon of the growth hormone receptor gene (GHRd3) in humans is associated with birth weight, growth after birth, and time of puberty. However, its evolutionary history and the molecular mechanisms through which it affects phenotypes remain unresolved. We present evidence that this deletion was nearly fixed in the ancestral population of anatomically modern humans and Neanderthals but underwent a recent adaptive reduction in frequency in East Asia. We documented that GHRd3 is associated with protection from severe malnutrition. Using a novel mouse model, we found that, under calorie restriction, Ghrd3 leads to the female-like gene expression in male livers and the disappearance of sexual dimorphism in weight. The sex- and diet-dependent effects of GHRd3 in our mouse model are consistent with a model in which the allele frequency of GHRd3 varies throughout human evolution as a response to fluctuations in resource availability.

Inferring Population Histories for Ancient Genomes Using Genome-Wide Genealogies.

Ancient genomes anchor genealogies in directly observed historical genetic variation and contextualize ancestral lineages with archaeological insights into their geography and cultural associations. However, the majority of ancient genomes are of lower coverage and cannot be directly built into genealogies. Here, we present a fast and scalable method, Colate, the first approach for inferring ancestral relationships through time between low-coverage genomes without requiring phasing or imputation. Our approach leverages sharing patterns of mutations dated using a genealogy to infer coalescence rates. For deeply sequenced ancient genomes, we additionally introduce an extension of the Relate algorithm for joint inference of genealogies incorporating such genomes. Application to 278 present-day and 430 ancient DNA samples of >0.5x mean coverage allows us to identify dynamic population structure and directional gene flow between early farmer and European hunter-gatherer groups. We further show that the previously reported, but still unexplained, increase in the TCC/TTC mutation rate, which is strongest in West Eurasia today, was already present at similar strength and widespread in the Late Glacial Period ~10k-15k years ago, but is not observed in samples >30k years old. It is strongest in Neolithic farmers, and highly correlated with recent coalescence rates between other genomes and a 10,000-year-old Anatolian hunter-gatherer. This suggests gene-flow among ancient peoples postdating the last glacial maximum as widespread and localizes the driver of this mutational signal in both time and geography in that region. Our approach should be widely applicable in future for addressing other evolutionary questions, and in other species.

Disentangling selection on genetically correlated polygenic traits via whole-genome genealogies.

We present a full-likelihood method to infer polygenic adaptation from DNA sequence variation and GWAS summary statistics to quantify recent transient directional selection acting on a complex trait. Through simulations of polygenic trait architecture evolution and GWASs, we show the method substantially improves power over current methods. We examine the robustness of the method under stratification, uncertainty and bias in marginal effects, uncertainty in the causal SNPs, allelic heterogeneity, negative selection, and low GWAS sample size. The method can quantify selection acting on correlated traits, controlling for pleiotropy even among traits with strong genetic correlation (|rg|=80%) while retaining high power to attribute selection to the causal trait. When the causal trait is excluded from analysis, selection is attributed to its closest proxy. We discuss limitations of the method, cautioning against strongly causal interpretations of the results, and the possibility of undetectable gene-by-environment (GxE) interactions. We apply the method to 56 human polygenic traits, revealing signals of directional selection on pigmentation, life history, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and other traits. We also conduct joint testing of 137 pairs of genetically correlated traits, revealing widespread correlated response acting on these traits (2.6-fold enrichment, p = 1.5 × 10-7). Signs of selection on some traits previously reported as adaptive (e.g., educational attainment and hair color) are largely attributable to correlated response (p = 2.9 × 10-6 and 1.7 × 10-4, respectively). Lastly, our joint test shows antagonistic selection has increased type 2 diabetes risk and decrease HbA1c (p = 1.5 × 10-5).

A method for genome-wide genealogy estimation for thousands of samples.

Knowledge of genome-wide genealogies for thousands of individuals would simplify most evolutionary analyses for humans and other species, but has remained computationally infeasible. We have developed a method, Relate, scaling to >10,000 sequences while simultaneously estimating branch lengths, mutational ages and variable historical population sizes, as well as allowing for data errors. Application to 1,000 Genomes Project haplotypes produces joint genealogical histories for 26 human populations. Highly diverged lineages are present in all groups, but most frequent in Africa. Outside Africa, these mainly reflect ancient introgression from groups related to Neanderthals and Denisovans, while African signals instead reflect unknown events unique to that continent. Our approach allows more powerful inferences of natural selection than has previously been possible. We identify multiple regions under strong positive selection, and multi-allelic traits including hair color, body mass index and blood pressure, showing strong evidence of directional selection, varying among human groups.

Topological data analysis of continuum percolation with disks.

We study continuum percolation with disks, a variant of continuum percolation in two-dimensional Euclidean space, by applying tools from topological data analysis. We interpret each realization of continuum percolation with disks as a topological subspace of [0,1]^{2} and investigate its topological features across many realizations. Specifically, we apply persistent homology to investigate topological changes as we vary the number and radius of disks, and we observe evidence that the longest persisting invariant is born at or near the percolation transition.

Steady state and mean recurrence time for random walks on stochastic temporal networks.

Random walks are basic diffusion processes on networks and have applications in, for example, searching, navigation, ranking, and community detection. Recent recognition of the importance of temporal aspects on networks spurred studies of random walks on temporal networks. Here we theoretically study two types of event-driven random walks on a stochastic temporal network model that produces arbitrary distributions of interevent times. In the so-called active random walk, the interevent time is reinitialized on all links upon each movement of the walker. In the so-called passive random walk, the interevent time is reinitialized only on the link that has been used the last time, and it is a type of correlated random walk. We find that the steady state is always the uniform density for the passive random walk. In contrast, for the active random walk, it increases or decreases with the node's degree depending on the distribution of interevent times. The mean recurrence time of a node is inversely proportional to the degree for both active and passive random walks. Furthermore, the mean recurrence time does or does not depend on the distribution of interevent times for the active and passive random walks, respectively.