Bayesian model comparison for rare-variant association studies.

Whole-genome sequencing studies applied to large populations or biobanks with extensive phenotyping raise new analytic challenges. The need to consider many variants at a locus or group of genes simultaneously and the potential to study many correlated phenotypes with shared genetic architecture provide opportunities for discovery not addressed by the traditional one variant, one phenotype association study. Here, we introduce a Bayesian model comparison approach called MRP (multiple rare variants and phenotypes) for rare-variant association studies that considers correlation, scale, and direction of genetic effects across a group of genetic variants, phenotypes, and studies, requiring only summary statistic data. We apply our method to exome sequencing data (n = 184,698) across 2,019 traits from the UK Biobank, aggregating signals in genes. MRP demonstrates an ability to recover signals such as associations between PCSK9 and LDL cholesterol levels. We additionally find MRP effective in conducting meta-analyses in exome data. Non-biomarker findings include associations between MC1R and red hair color and skin color, IL17RA and monocyte count, and IQGAP2 and mean platelet volume. Finally, we apply MRP in a multi-phenotype setting; after clustering the 35 biomarker phenotypes based on genetic correlation estimates, we find that joint analysis of these phenotypes results in substantial power gains for gene-trait associations, such as in TNFRSF13B in one of the clusters containing diabetes- and lipid-related traits. Overall, we show that the MRP model comparison approach improves upon useful features from widely used meta-analysis approaches for rare-variant association analyses and prioritizes protective modifiers of disease risk.

Integrated Polygenic Tool Substantially Enhances Coronary Artery Disease Prediction.

BACKGROUND: There is considerable interest in whether genetic data can be used to improve standard cardiovascular disease risk calculators, as the latter are routinely used in clinical practice to manage preventative treatment. METHODS: Using the UK Biobank resource, we developed our own polygenic risk score for coronary artery disease (CAD). We used an additional 60 000 UK Biobank individuals to develop an integrated risk tool (IRT) that combined our polygenic risk score with established risk tools (either the American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology pooled cohort equations [PCE] or UK QRISK3), and we tested our IRT in an additional, independent set of 186 451 UK Biobank individuals. RESULTS: The novel CAD polygenic risk score shows superior predictive power for CAD events, compared with other published polygenic risk scores, and is largely uncorrelated with PCE and QRISK3. When combined with PCE into an IRT, it has superior predictive accuracy. Overall, 10.4% of incident CAD cases were misclassified as low risk by PCE and correctly classified as high risk by the IRT, compared with 4.4% misclassified by the IRT and correctly classified by PCE. The overall net reclassification improvement for the IRT was 5.9% (95% CI, 4.7-7.0). When individuals were stratified into age-by-sex subgroups, the improvement was larger for all subgroups (range, 8.3%-15.4%), with the best performance in 40- to 54-year-old men (15.4% [95% CI, 11.6-19.3]). Comparable results were found using a different risk tool (QRISK3) and also a broader definition of cardiovascular disease. Use of the IRT is estimated to avoid up to 12 000 deaths in the United States over a 5-year period. CONCLUSIONS: An IRT that includes polygenic risk outperforms current risk stratification tools and offers greater opportunity for early interventions. Given the plummeting costs of genetic tests, future iterations of CAD risk tools would be enhanced with the addition of a person's polygenic risk.

Impact of IFNL4 Genetic Variants on Sustained Virologic Response and Viremia in Hepatitis C Virus Genotype 3 Patients.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 3 is very prevalent in Europe and Asia and is associated with worst outcomes than other genotypes. Genetic factors have been associated with HCV infection; however, no extensive genome-wide study has been performed among HCV genotype 3 patients. In this study, using a large cohort of 1,759 patients infected with HCV genotype 3, we explore the role of genetic variants on the response to interferon (IFN) and direct-acting antiviral (DAA) regimens and viremia in a combined candidate gene and genome-wide analysis. We show that genetic variants within the IFN lambda 4 (IFNL4) locus are the major factors associated with the studied traits, accordingly with observations in other HCV genotypes and with comparable effect sizes. In particular, the functional dinucleotide polymorphism rs368234815 was associated with IFN-based sustained virologic response (SVR) [odds ratio (OR) = 1.5, P = 2.3 × 10-7], viremia (beta = -0.23, P = 8.8 × 10-10), and also DAA-based SVR (OR = 1.7; P = 4.2 × 10-4). Our results provide evidence for a role of genetic variants on HCV viremia and SVR, notably DAA-based, in patients infected with HCV genotype 3.

Bayesian meta-analysis across genome-wide association studies of diverse phenotypes.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are a powerful tool for understanding the genetic basis of diseases and traits, but most studies have been conducted in isolation, with a focus on either a single or a set of closely related phenotypes. We describe MetABF, a simple Bayesian framework for performing integrative meta-analysis across multiple GWAS using summary statistics. The approach is applicable across a wide range of study designs and can increase the power by 50% compared with standard frequentist tests when only a subset of studies have a true effect. We demonstrate its utility in a meta-analysis of 20 diverse GWAS which were part of the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium 2. The novelty of the approach is its ability to explore, and assess the evidence for a range of possible true patterns of association across studies in a computationally efficient framework.

Phenome-wide association studies across large population cohorts support drug target validation.

Phenome-wide association studies (PheWAS) have been proposed as a possible aid in drug development through elucidating mechanisms of action, identifying alternative indications, or predicting adverse drug events (ADEs). Here, we select 25 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) linked through genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to 19 candidate drug targets for common disease indications. We interrogate these SNPs by PheWAS in four large cohorts with extensive health information (23andMe, UK Biobank, FINRISK, CHOP) for association with 1683 binary endpoints in up to 697,815 individuals and conduct meta-analyses for 145 mapped disease endpoints. Our analyses replicate 75% of known GWAS associations (P < 0.05) and identify nine study-wide significant novel associations (of 71 with FDR < 0.1). We describe associations that may predict ADEs, e.g., acne, high cholesterol, gout, and gallstones with rs738409 (p.I148M) in PNPLA3 and asthma with rs1990760 (p.T946A) in IFIH1. Our results demonstrate PheWAS as a powerful addition to the toolkit for drug discovery.

Impact of Interferon Lambda 4 Genotype on Interferon-Stimulated Gene Expression During Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapy for Hepatitis C.

New directly acting antivirals (DAAs) provide very high cure rates in most patients infected by hepatitis C virus (HCV). However, some patient groups have been relatively harder to treat, including those with cirrhosis or infected with HCV genotype 3. In the recent BOSON trial, genotype 3, patients with cirrhosis receiving a 16-week course of sofosbuvir and ribavirin had a sustained virological response (SVR) rate of around 50%. In patients with cirrhosis, interferon lambda 4 (IFNL4) CC genotype was significantly associated with SVR. This genotype was also associated with a lower interferon-stimulated gene (ISG) signature in peripheral blood and in liver at baseline. Unexpectedly, patients with the CC genotype showed a dynamic increase in ISG expression between weeks 4 and 16 of DAA therapy, whereas the reverse was true for non-CC patients. Conclusion: These data provide an important dynamic link between host genotype and phenotype in HCV therapy also potentially relevant to naturally acquired infection. (Hepatology 2018; 00:000-000).

Risk of nontyphoidal Salmonella bacteraemia in African children is modified by STAT4.

Nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) is a major cause of bacteraemia in Africa. The disease typically affects HIV-infected individuals and young children, causing substantial morbidity and mortality. Here we present a genome-wide association study (180 cases, 2677 controls) and replication analysis of NTS bacteraemia in Kenyan and Malawian children. We identify a locus in STAT4, rs13390936, associated with NTS bacteraemia. rs13390936 is a context-specific expression quantitative trait locus for STAT4 RNA expression, and individuals carrying the NTS-risk genotype demonstrate decreased interferon-γ (IFNγ) production in stimulated natural killer cells, and decreased circulating IFNγ concentrations during acute NTS bacteraemia. The NTS-risk allele at rs13390936 is associated with protection against a range of autoimmune diseases. These data implicate interleukin-12-dependent IFNγ-mediated immunity as a determinant of invasive NTS disease in African children, and highlight the shared genetic architecture of infectious and autoimmune disease.

Genetic analysis in UK Biobank links insulin resistance and transendothelial migration pathways to coronary artery disease.

UK Biobank is among the world's largest repositories for phenotypic and genotypic information in individuals of European ancestry. We performed a genome-wide association study in UK Biobank testing ∼9 million DNA sequence variants for association with coronary artery disease (4,831 cases and 115,455 controls) and carried out meta-analysis with previously published results. We identified 15 new loci, bringing the total number of loci associated with coronary artery disease to 95 at the time of analysis. Phenome-wide association scanning showed that CCDC92 likely affects coronary artery disease through insulin resistance pathways, whereas experimental analysis suggests that ARHGEF26 influences the transendothelial migration of leukocytes.

Resistance to malaria through structural variation of red blood cell invasion receptors.

The malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum invades human red blood cells by a series of interactions between host and parasite surface proteins. By analyzing genome sequence data from human populations, including 1269 individuals from sub-Saharan Africa, we identify a diverse array of large copy-number variants affecting the host invasion receptor genes GYPA and GYPB We find that a nearby association with severe malaria is explained by a complex structural rearrangement involving the loss of GYPB and gain of two GYPB-A hybrid genes, which encode a serologically distinct blood group antigen known as Dantu. This variant reduces the risk of severe malaria by 40% and has recently increased in frequency in parts of Kenya, yet it appears to be absent from west Africa. These findings link structural variation of red blood cell invasion receptors with natural resistance to severe malaria.

Genome-to-genome analysis highlights the effect of the human innate and adaptive immune systems on the hepatitis C virus.

Outcomes of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and treatment depend on viral and host genetic factors. Here we use human genome-wide genotyping arrays and new whole-genome HCV viral sequencing technologies to perform a systematic genome-to-genome study of 542 individuals who were chronically infected with HCV, predominantly genotype 3. We show that both alleles of genes encoding human leukocyte antigen molecules and genes encoding components of the interferon lambda innate immune system drive viral polymorphism. Additionally, we show that IFNL4 genotypes determine HCV viral load through a mechanism dependent on a specific amino acid residue in the HCV NS5A protein. These findings highlight the interplay between the innate immune system and the viral genome in HCV control.

Identifying lineage effects when controlling for population structure improves power in bacterial association studies.

Bacteria pose unique challenges for genome-wide association studies because of strong structuring into distinct strains and substantial linkage disequilibrium across the genome(1,2). Although methods developed for human studies can correct for strain structure(3,4), this risks considerable loss-of-power because genetic differences between strains often contribute substantial phenotypic variability(5). Here, we propose a new method that captures lineage-level associations even when locus-specific associations cannot be fine-mapped. We demonstrate its ability to detect genes and genetic variants underlying resistance to 17 antimicrobials in 3,144 isolates from four taxonomically diverse clonal and recombining bacteria: Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae. Strong selection, recombination and penetrance confer high power to recover known antimicrobial resistance mechanisms and reveal a candidate association between the outer membrane porin nmpC and cefazolin resistance in E. coli. Hence, our method pinpoints locus-specific effects where possible and boosts power by detecting lineage-level differences when fine-mapping is intractable.

FINEMAP: efficient variable selection using summary data from genome-wide association studies.

MOTIVATION: The goal of fine-mapping in genomic regions associated with complex diseases and traits is to identify causal variants that point to molecular mechanisms behind the associations. Recent fine-mapping methods using summary data from genome-wide association studies rely on exhaustive search through all possible causal configurations, which is computationally expensive. RESULTS: We introduce FINEMAP, a software package to efficiently explore a set of the most important causal configurations of the region via a shotgun stochastic search algorithm. We show that FINEMAP produces accurate results in a fraction of processing time of existing approaches and is therefore a promising tool for analyzing growing amounts of data produced in genome-wide association studies and emerging sequencing projects. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: FINEMAP v1.0 is freely available for Mac OS X and Linux at http://www.christianbenner.com CONTACT: : christian.benner@helsinki.fi or matti.pirinen@helsinki.fi.

Progress and promise in understanding the genetic basis of common diseases.

Susceptibility to common human diseases is influenced by both genetic and environmental factors. The explosive growth of genetic data, and the knowledge that it is generating, are transforming our biological understanding of these diseases. In this review, we describe the technological and analytical advances that have enabled genome-wide association studies to be successful in identifying a large number of genetic variants robustly associated with common disease. We examine the biological insights that these genetic associations are beginning to produce, from functional mechanisms involving individual genes to biological pathways linking associated genes, and the identification of functional annotations, some of which are cell-type-specific, enriched in disease associations. Although most efforts have focused on identifying and interpreting genetic variants that are irrefutably associated with disease, it is increasingly clear that--even at large sample sizes--these represent only the tip of the iceberg of genetic signal, motivating polygenic analyses that consider the effects of genetic variants throughout the genome, including modest effects that are not individually statistically significant. As data from an increasingly large number of diseases and traits are analysed, pleiotropic effects (defined as genetic loci affecting multiple phenotypes) can help integrate our biological understanding. Looking forward, the next generation of population-scale data resources, linking genomic information with health outcomes, will lead to another step-change in our ability to understand, and treat, common diseases.

Class II HLA interactions modulate genetic risk for multiple sclerosis.

Association studies have greatly refined the understanding of how variation within the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genes influences risk of multiple sclerosis. However, the extent to which major effects are modulated by interactions is poorly characterized. We analyzed high-density SNP data on 17,465 cases and 30,385 controls from 11 cohorts of European ancestry, in combination with imputation of classical HLA alleles, to build a high-resolution map of HLA genetic risk and assess the evidence for interactions involving classical HLA alleles. Among new and previously identified class II risk alleles (HLA-DRB1*15:01, HLA-DRB1*13:03, HLA-DRB1*03:01, HLA-DRB1*08:01 and HLA-DQB1*03:02) and class I protective alleles (HLA-A*02:01, HLA-B*44:02, HLA-B*38:01 and HLA-B*55:01), we find evidence for two interactions involving pairs of class II alleles: HLA-DQA1*01:01-HLA-DRB1*15:01 and HLA-DQB1*03:01-HLA-DQB1*03:02. We find no evidence for interactions between classical HLA alleles and non-HLA risk-associated variants and estimate a minimal effect of polygenic epistasis in modulating major risk alleles.

A novel locus of resistance to severe malaria in a region of ancient balancing selection.

The high prevalence of sickle haemoglobin in Africa shows that malaria has been a major force for human evolutionary selection, but surprisingly few other polymorphisms have been proven to confer resistance to malaria in large epidemiological studies. To address this problem, we conducted a multi-centre genome-wide association study (GWAS) of life-threatening Plasmodium falciparum infection (severe malaria) in over 11,000 African children, with replication data in a further 14,000 individuals. Here we report a novel malaria resistance locus close to a cluster of genes encoding glycophorins that are receptors for erythrocyte invasion by P. falciparum. We identify a haplotype at this locus that provides 33% protection against severe malaria (odds ratio = 0.67, 95% confidence interval = 0.60-0.76, P value = 9.5 × 10(-11)) and is linked to polymorphisms that have previously been shown to have features of ancient balancing selection, on the basis of haplotype sharing between humans and chimpanzees. Taken together with previous observations on the malaria-protective role of blood group O, these data reveal that two of the strongest GWAS signals for severe malaria lie in or close to genes encoding the glycosylated surface coat of the erythrocyte cell membrane, both within regions of the genome where it appears that evolution has maintained diversity for millions of years. These findings provide new insights into the host-parasite interactions that are critical in determining the outcome of malaria infection.

Genetic architecture of artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum.

We report a large multicenter genome-wide association study of Plasmodium falciparum resistance to artemisinin, the frontline antimalarial drug. Across 15 locations in Southeast Asia, we identified at least 20 mutations in kelch13 (PF3D7_1343700) affecting the encoded propeller and BTB/POZ domains, which were associated with a slow parasite clearance rate after treatment with artemisinin derivatives. Nonsynonymous polymorphisms in fd (ferredoxin), arps10 (apicoplast ribosomal protein S10), mdr2 (multidrug resistance protein 2) and crt (chloroquine resistance transporter) also showed strong associations with artemisinin resistance. Analysis of the fine structure of the parasite population showed that the fd, arps10, mdr2 and crt polymorphisms are markers of a genetic background on which kelch13 mutations are particularly likely to arise and that they correlate with the contemporary geographical boundaries and population frequencies of artemisinin resistance. These findings indicate that the risk of new resistance-causing mutations emerging is determined by specific predisposing genetic factors in the underlying parasite population.

Imputation-based meta-analysis of severe malaria in three African populations.

Combining data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) conducted at different locations, using genotype imputation and fixed-effects meta-analysis, has been a powerful approach for dissecting complex disease genetics in populations of European ancestry. Here we investigate the feasibility of applying the same approach in Africa, where genetic diversity, both within and between populations, is far more extensive. We analyse genome-wide data from approximately 5,000 individuals with severe malaria and 7,000 population controls from three different locations in Africa. Our results show that the standard approach is well powered to detect known malaria susceptibility loci when sample sizes are large, and that modern methods for association analysis can control the potential confounding effects of population structure. We show that pattern of association around the haemoglobin S allele differs substantially across populations due to differences in haplotype structure. Motivated by these observations we consider new approaches to association analysis that might prove valuable for multicentre GWAS in Africa: we relax the assumptions of SNP-based fixed effect analysis; we apply Bayesian approaches to allow for heterogeneity in the effect of an allele on risk across studies; and we introduce a region-based test to allow for heterogeneity in the location of causal alleles.

Common variants in the HLA-DRB1-HLA-DQA1 HLA class II region are associated with susceptibility to visceral leishmaniasis.

To identify susceptibility loci for visceral leishmaniasis, we undertook genome-wide association studies in two populations: 989 cases and 1,089 controls from India and 357 cases in 308 Brazilian families (1,970 individuals). The HLA-DRB1-HLA-DQA1 locus was the only region to show strong evidence of association in both populations. Replication at this region was undertaken in a second Indian population comprising 941 cases and 990 controls, and combined analysis across the three cohorts for rs9271858 at this locus showed P(combined) = 2.76 × 10(-17) and odds ratio (OR) = 1.41, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.30-1.52. A conditional analysis provided evidence for multiple associations within the HLA-DRB1-HLA-DQA1 region, and a model in which risk differed between three groups of haplotypes better explained the signal and was significant in the Indian discovery and replication cohorts. In conclusion, the HLA-DRB1-HLA-DQA1 HLA class II region contributes to visceral leishmaniasis susceptibility in India and Brazil, suggesting shared genetic risk factors for visceral leishmaniasis that cross the epidemiological divides of geography and parasite species.

Identification of 15 new psoriasis susceptibility loci highlights the role of innate immunity.

To gain further insight into the genetic architecture of psoriasis, we conducted a meta-analysis of 3 genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and 2 independent data sets genotyped on the Immunochip, including 10,588 cases and 22,806 controls. We identified 15 new susceptibility loci, increasing to 36 the number associated with psoriasis in European individuals. We also identified, using conditional analyses, five independent signals within previously known loci. The newly identified loci shared with other autoimmune diseases include candidate genes with roles in regulating T-cell function (such as RUNX3, TAGAP and STAT3). Notably, they included candidate genes whose products are involved in innate host defense, including interferon-mediated antiviral responses (DDX58), macrophage activation (ZC3H12C) and nuclear factor (NF)-κB signaling (CARD14 and CARM1). These results portend a better understanding of shared and distinctive genetic determinants of immune-mediated inflammatory disorders and emphasize the importance of the skin in innate and acquired host defense.