Multiple Introductions of Yersinia pestis during Urban Pneumonic Plague Epidemic, Madagascar, 2017.

Pneumonic plague (PP) is characterized by high infection rate, person-to-person transmission, and rapid progression to severe disease. In 2017, a PP epidemic occurred in 2 Madagascar urban areas, Antananarivo and Toamasina. We used epidemiologic data and Yersinia pestis genomic characterization to determine the sources of this epidemic. Human plague emerged independently from environmental reservoirs in rural endemic foci >20 times during August-November 2017. Confirmed cases from 5 emergences, including 4 PP cases, were documented in urban areas. Epidemiologic and genetic analyses of cases associated with the first emergence event to reach urban areas confirmed that transmission started in August; spread to Antananarivo, Toamasina, and other locations; and persisted in Antananarivo until at least mid-November. Two other Y. pestis lineages may have caused persistent PP transmission chains in Antananarivo. Multiple Y. pestis lineages were independently introduced to urban areas from several rural foci via travel of infected persons during the epidemic.

Analytical framework to evaluate and optimize the use of imperfect diagnostics to inform outbreak response: Application to the 2017 plague epidemic in Madagascar.

During outbreaks, the lack of diagnostic "gold standard" can mask the true burden of infection in the population and hamper the allocation of resources required for control. Here, we present an analytical framework to evaluate and optimize the use of diagnostics when multiple yet imperfect diagnostic tests are available. We apply it to laboratory results of 2,136 samples, analyzed with 3 diagnostic tests (based on up to 7 diagnostic outcomes), collected during the 2017 pneumonic (PP) and bubonic plague (BP) outbreak in Madagascar, which was unprecedented both in the number of notified cases, clinical presentation, and spatial distribution. The extent of these outbreaks has however remained unclear due to nonoptimal assays. Using latent class methods, we estimate that 7% to 15% of notified cases were Yersinia pestis-infected. Overreporting was highest during the peak of the outbreak and lowest in the rural settings endemic to Y. pestis. Molecular biology methods offered the best compromise between sensitivity and specificity. The specificity of the rapid diagnostic test was relatively low (PP: 82%, BP: 85%), particularly for use in contexts with large quantities of misclassified cases. Comparison with data from a subsequent seasonal Y. pestis outbreak in 2018 reveal better test performance (BP: specificity 99%, sensitivity: 91%), indicating that factors related to the response to a large, explosive outbreak may well have affected test performance. We used our framework to optimize the case classification and derive consolidated epidemic trends. Our approach may help reduce uncertainties in other outbreaks where diagnostics are imperfect.

SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence follow-up in Malagasy blood donors during the 2020 COVID-19 Epidemic.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of the 2020 COVID-19 epidemic in Africa seems to be different from that of the rest of the world, however its true extent is probably underestimated. Conducting population based sero-surveys during the epidemic has moreover been extremely challenging, driving our group and others to study blood donor samples. METHODS: We collected regional epidemiological COVID-19 surveillance data, and simultaneously monitored anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalences monthly throughout the epidemic in 5 major Region-associated Blood Transfusion Centres of Madagascar over a period of 9 months. FINDINGS: Soon after attaining the first epidemic peaks between May and August 2020, both crude and population-weighted test-performance-adjusted seroprevalences of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was in Malagasy blood donors rapidly increased up to over 40% positivity. INTERPRETATION: These findings suggest a high cumulative incidence of infection and seroconversion, which may have contributed to the observed deceleration of infection rates, but was not sufficient to prevent the second epidemic wave that struck Madagascar in Spring 2021. FUNDING: This project was funded by the United States Agency for International Development.

Performance of plague rapid diagnostic test compared to bacteriology: a retrospective analysis of the data collected in Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: Plague is a highly fatal disease caused by Yersinia pestis. Late diagnosis hampers disease outcome and effectiveness of control measures, induces death and disease spread. Advance on its diagnosis was the use of lateral flow rapid diagnostic test (RDT). METHODS: We assessed the performance of the plague RDT based on Y. pestis F1 antigen detection more than 15 years after its deployment in Madagascar. We compared the RDT with bacteriological culture results, using data from plague notified cases collected during the periods for which both tests were performed independently and systematically. RESULTS: Used with bubonic plague (BP) patient samples, RDTs had a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI: 99.7-100%), a specificity of 67% (95% CI: 64-70%) with a good agreement between bacteriology and RDT results (86%; κ = 0.70, 95% CI 0.67-0.73). For pneumonic plague (PP), RDT had a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI: 91-100%) and a specificity of 59% (95% CI: 49-68%) and concordance between the bacteriological and plague RDT results was moderate (70%; κ = 0.43, 95% CI 0.32-0.55). Analysis focusing on the 2017-2018 plague season including the unprecedented epidemic of PP showed that RDT used on BP samples still had a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI: 85-100%) and a specificity of 82% (95% CI: 48-98%) with a very good agreement with bacteriology 94% (κ = 0.86, 95% CI 0.67-1); for PP samples, concordance between the bacteriological and plague RDT results was poor (61%; κ = - 0.03, 95% CI -0.17 - 0.10). CONCLUSIONS: RDT performance appeared to be similar for the diagnosis of BP and PP except during the 2017 PP epidemic where RDT performance was low. This RDT, with its good sensitivity on both plague clinical forms during a normal plague season, remained a potential test for alert. Particularly for BP, it may be of great value in the decision process for the initiation of therapy. However, for PP, RDT may deliver false negative results due to inconsistent sample quality. Plague diagnosis could be improved through the development of next generation of RDTs.

Epidemiological characteristics of an urban plague epidemic in Madagascar, August-November, 2017: an outbreak report.

BACKGROUND: Madagascar accounts for 75% of global plague cases reported to WHO, with an annual incidence of 200-700 suspected cases (mainly bubonic plague). In 2017, a pneumonic plague epidemic of unusual size occurred. The extent of this epidemic provides a unique opportunity to better understand the epidemiology of pneumonic plagues, particularly in urban settings. METHODS: Clinically suspected plague cases were notified to the Central Laboratory for Plague at Institut Pasteur de Madagascar (Antananarivo, Madagascar), where biological samples were tested. Based on cases recorded between Aug 1, and Nov 26, 2017, we assessed the epidemiological characteristics of this epidemic. Cases were classified as suspected, probable, or confirmed based on the results of three types of diagnostic tests (rapid diagnostic test, molecular methods, and culture) according to 2006 WHO recommendations. FINDINGS: 2414 clinically suspected plague cases were reported, including 1878 (78%) pneumonic plague cases, 395 (16%) bubonic plague cases, one (<1%) septicaemic case, and 140 (6%) cases with unspecified clinical form. 386 (21%) of 1878 notified pneumonic plague cases were probable and 32 (2%) were confirmed. 73 (18%) of 395 notified bubonic plague cases were probable and 66 (17%) were confirmed. The case fatality ratio was higher among confirmed cases (eight [25%] of 32 cases) than probable (27 [8%] of 360 cases) or suspected pneumonic plague cases (74 [5%] of 1358 cases) and a similar trend was seen for bubonic plague cases (16 [24%] of 66 confirmed cases, four [6%] of 68 probable cases, and six [2%] of 243 suspected cases). 351 (84%) of 418 confirmed or probable pneumonic plague cases were concentrated in Antananarivo, the capital city, and Toamasina, the main seaport. All 50 isolated Yersinia pestis strains were susceptible to the tested antibiotics. INTERPRETATION: This predominantly urban plague epidemic was characterised by a large number of notifications in two major urban areas and an unusually high proportion of pneumonic forms, with only 23% having one or more positive laboratory tests. Lessons about clinical and biological diagnosis, case definition, surveillance, and the logistical management of the response identified in this epidemic are crucial to improve the response to future plague outbreaks. FUNDING: US Agency for International Development, WHO, Institut Pasteur, US Department of Health and Human Services, Laboratoire d'Excellence Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases, Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study of the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, AXA Research Fund, and the INCEPTION programme.

Acute Febrile Illness and Influenza Disease Burden in a Rural Cohort Dedicated to Malaria in Senegal, 2012-2013.

BACKGROUND: African populations are considered to be particularly vulnerable to fever illnesses, including malaria, and acute respiratory disease, owing to limited resources and overcrowding. However, the overall burden of influenza in this context is poorly defined and incidence data for African countries are scarce. We therefore studied the fever syndrome incidence and more specifically influenza incidence in a cohort of inhabitants of Dielmo and Ndiop in Sokone district, Senegal. METHODS: Daily febrile-illness data were prospectively obtained from January 2012 to December 2013 from the cohort of the villages of Dielmo and Ndiop, initially dedicated to the study of malaria. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from, and malaria diagnosis tests (thick blood smears) carried out on, every febrile individual during clinical visits; reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction was used to identify influenza viruses in the samples. Binomial negative regression analysis was used to study the relationship between the monthly incidence rate and various covariates. RESULTS: In Dielmo and Ndiop, the incidence of malaria has decreased, but fever syndromes remain frequent. Among the 1036 inhabitants included in the cohort, a total of 1,129 episodes of fever were reported. Influenza was present all year round with peaks in October-December 2012 and August 2013. The fever, ILI and influenza incidence density rates differed significantly between age groups. At both sites, the adjusted incidence relative risks for fever syndromes and ILI were significantly higher in the [6-24 months) than other age groups: 7.3 (95%CI: [5.7-9.3]) and 16.1 (95%CI: [11.1-23.3]) respectively. The adjusted incidence relative risk for influenza was significantly higher for the [0-6 months) than other age groups: 9.9 (95%CI: [2.9-33.6]). At both sites, incidence density rates were lowest among adults > = 50 years. CONCLUSIONS: In this rural setting in Senegal, influenza was most frequent among the youngest children. Preventive strategies targeting this population should be implemented.

The rise and fall of malaria in a West African rural community, Dielmo, Senegal, from 1990 to 2012: a 22 year longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: A better understanding of the effect of malaria control interventions on vector and parasite populations, acquired immunity, and burden of the disease is needed to guide strategies to eliminate malaria from highly endemic areas. We monitored and analysed the changes in malaria epidemiology in a village community in Senegal, west Africa, over 22 years. METHODS: Between 1990 and 2012, we did a prospective longitudinal study of the inhabitants of Dielmo, Senegal, to identify all episodes of fever and investigate the relation between malaria host, vector, and parasite. Our study included daily medical surveillance with systematic parasite detection in individuals with fever. We measured parasite prevalence four times a year with cross-sectional surveys. We monitored malaria transmission monthly with night collection of mosquitoes. Malaria treatment changed over the years, from quinine (1990-94), to chloroquine (1995-2003), amodiaquine plus sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (2003-06), and finally artesunate plus amodiaquine (2006-12). Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) were introduced in 2008. FINDINGS: We monitored 776 villagers aged 0-101 years for 2 378 150 person-days of follow-up. Entomological inoculation rate ranged from 142·5 infected bites per person per year in 1990 to 482·6 in 2000, and 7·6 in 2012. Parasite prevalence in children declined from 87% in 1990 to 0·3 % in 2012. In adults, it declined from 58% to 0·3%. We recorded 23 546 fever episodes during the study, including 8243 clinical attacks caused by Plasmodium falciparum, 290 by Plasmodium malariae, and 219 by Plasmodium ovale. Three deaths were directly attributable to malaria, and two to severe adverse events of antimalarial drugs. The incidence of malaria attacks ranged from 1·50 attacks per person-year in 1990 to 2·63 in 2000, and to only 0·046 in 2012. The greatest changes were associated with the replacement of chloroquine and the introduction of ITNs. INTERPRETATION: Malaria control policies combining prompt treatment of clinical attacks and deployment of ITNs can nearly eliminate parasite carriage and greatly reduce the burden of malaria in populations exposed to intense perennial malaria transmission. The choice of drugs seems crucial. Rapid decline of clinical immunity allows rapid detection and treatment of novel infections and thus has a key role in sustaining effectiveness of combining artemisinin-based combination therapy and ITNs despite increasing pyrethroid resistance. FUNDING: Pasteur Institutes of Dakar and Paris, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, and French Ministry of Cooperation.

Rabies Risk: Difficulties Encountered during Management of Grouped Cases of Bat Bites in 2 Isolated Villages in French Guiana.

In French Guiana, from 1984 to 2011, 14 animal rabies cases and 1 human rabies case (2008) were diagnosed. In January 2011, vampire-bat attacks occurred in 2 isolated villages. In mid-January, a medical team from the Cayenne Centre for Anti-Rabies Treatment visited the sites to manage individuals potentially exposed to rabies and, in April, an anti-rabies vaccination campaign for dogs was conducted. Twenty individuals were bitten by bats in 1 month, most frequently on the feet. The median time to start management was 15 days. The complete Zagreb vaccination protocol (2 doses on day 0 and 1 dose on days 7 and 21) was administered to 16 patients, 12 also received specific immunoglobulins. The antibody titration was obtained for 12 patients (different from those who received immunoglobulins). The antibody titers were ≥0.5 EU/mL for all of them. The serology has not been implemented for the 12 patients who received immunoglobulins. Accidental destruction of a vampire-bat colony could be responsible for the attacks. The isolation and absence of sensitization of the populations were the main explanations for the management difficulties encountered. Sensitization programs should be conducted regularly.

Mortality among active-duty male French Armed Forces, 2006-10.

BACKGROUND: In the Armed Forces, knowledge about the causes of deaths is required in order to develop prevention strategies. This study presents the main characteristics of causes of deaths among male active-duty personnel in the French Armed Forces during the 2006-10 period and compares them with the general French male population. METHODS: The data are provided by military public health surveillance. Comparisons of the specific mortality rates (MR) were performed using a Poisson regression. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated to compare mortality with the general French male population. RESULTS: There were 1455 deaths among male active-duty personnel during the study period [MR: 100.9 per 100,000 person-years (PY); 95% confidence interval 95.7-106.1]. The 17-24 age group was characterized by violent deaths: transport accident (MR: 45.9 per 100,000 PY) and suicide (18.8 per 100 000 PY). Overall SMRs show significantly lower MR compared with the French national MR with the exception of SMR for transport accident and suicide in the 17-24 age group. CONCLUSIONS: There is a significantly lower deficit of mortality compared with the French male general population, reflecting a strong healthy worker effect. However, health promotion programmes should continue to put emphasis on transport accident especially among the 17-24 age group.

First human rabies case in French Guiana, 2008: epidemiological investigation and control.

BACKGROUND: Until 2008, human rabies had never been reported in French Guiana. On 28 May 2008, the French National Reference Center for Rabies (Institut Pasteur, Paris) confirmed the rabies diagnosis, based on hemi-nested polymerase chain reaction on skin biopsy and saliva specimens from a Guianan, who had never travelled overseas and died in Cayenne after presenting clinically typical meningoencephalitis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Molecular typing of the virus identified a Lyssavirus (Rabies virus species), closely related to those circulating in hematophagous bats (mainly Desmodus rotundus) in Latin America. A multidisciplinary Crisis Unit was activated. Its objectives were to implement an epidemiological investigation and a veterinary survey, to provide control measures and establish a communications program. The origin of the contamination was not formally established, but was probably linked to a bat bite based on the virus type isolated. After confirming exposure of 90 persons, they were vaccinated against rabies: 42 from the case's entourage and 48 healthcare workers. To handle that emergence and the local population's increased demand to be vaccinated, a specific communications program was established using several media: television, newspaper, radio. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: This episode, occurring in the context of a Department far from continental France, strongly affected the local population, healthcare workers and authorities, and the management team faced intense pressure. This observation confirms that the risk of contracting rabies in French Guiana is real, with consequences for population educational program, control measures, medical diagnosis and post-exposure prophylaxis.

Risk of rabies transmission and adverse effects of postexposure prophylaxis in health care workers exposed to a fatal case of human rabies.

On May 27, 2008, a patient died from rabies at the Cayenne Hospital in French Guiana. Postexposure prophylaxis vaccination was implemented for all health care workers exposed to this patient. Examining the management of such a rare risk reveals important factors in the education of personnel who may have contact with a patient with rabies, to permit appropriate risk assessment and reduce unnecessary postexposure prophylaxis, taking into account the risks and costs of adverse events.

Plasmodium vivax Malaria among military personnel, French Guiana, 1998-2008.

We obtained health surveillance epidemiologic data on malaria among French military personnel deployed to French Guiana during 1998-2008. Incidence of Plasmodium vivax malaria increased and that of P. falciparum remained stable. This new epidemiologic situation has led to modification of malaria treatment for deployed military personnel.

Malaria outbreak among French army troops returning from the Ivory Coast.

In 2006, a French Army unit reported 39 malaria cases among service persons returning from Ivory Coast. Thirty, including three serious forms, occurred after the return to France. The risk of post-return malaria was higher than the risk in Ivory Coast. Half of the imported cases had stopped post-return chemoprophylaxis early.

Advantages and limits of real-time epidemiological surveillance during military deployments: the experience of the French Armed Forces.

To perform epidemiological surveillance during deployments, the French military health service has developed a real-time surveillance approach. The objective was to identify the benefits and problems of this approach. A prototype of real-time surveillance has been set up in French Guiana since 2004. Its permanent evaluation has allowed identifying strengths and weaknesses. The experience has permitted expansion of the concept to French forces in Djibouti and also development of a global approach for the whole French armed forces. Real-time surveillance has shown its usefulness for early warning during different real and simulated situations. Functional and architectural choices have permitted interoperability with allied nations. However, the information produced was only the first step of the diagnostic epidemiological situation followed by other investigations. This first step of development has highlighted the required complementarity with traditional epidemiological surveillance.

Assessment of the relative success of sporozoite inoculations in individuals exposed to moderate seasonal transmission.

BACKGROUND: The time necessary for malaria parasite to re-appear in the blood following treatment (re-infection time) is an indirect method for evaluating the immune defences operating against pre-erythrocytic and early erythrocytic malaria stages. Few longitudinal data are available in populations in whom malaria transmission level had also been measured. METHODS: One hundred and ten individuals from the village of Ndiop (Senegal), aged between one and 72 years, were cured of malaria by quinine (25 mg/day oral Quinimax in three equal daily doses, for seven days). Thereafter, thick blood films were examined to detect the reappearance of Plasmodium falciparum every week, for 11 weeks after treatment. Malaria transmission was simultaneously measured weekly by night collection of biting mosquitoes. RESULTS: Malaria transmission was on average 15.3 infective bites per person during the 77 days follow up. The median reappearance time for the whole study population was 46.8 days, whereas individuals would have received an average one infective bite every 5 days. At the end of the follow-up, after 77 days, 103 of the 110 individuals (93.6%; CI 95% [89.0-98.2]) had been re-infected with P. falciparum. The median reappearance time ('re-positivation') was longer in subjects with patent parasitaemia at enrolment than in parasitologically-negative individuals (58 days vs. 45.9; p = 0.03) and in adults > 30 years than in younger subjects (58.6 days vs. 42.7; p = 0.0002). In a multivariate Cox PH model controlling for the sickle cell trait, G6PD deficiency and the type of habitat, the presence of parasitaemia at enrolment and age >/= 30 years were independently predictive of a reduced risk of re-infection (PH = 0.5 [95% CI: 0.3-0.9] and 0.4; [95% CI: 0.2-0.6] respectively). CONCLUSION: Results indicate the existence of a substantial resistance to sporozoites inoculations, but which was ultimately overcome in almost every individual after 2 1/2 months of natural challenges. Such a study design and the results obtained suggest that, despite a small sample size, this approach can contribute to assess the impact of intervention methods, such as the efficacy vector-control measures or of malaria pre-erythrocytic stages vaccines.

Multinormal in vitro distribution model suitable for the distribution of Plasmodium falciparum chemosusceptibility to doxycycline.

The distribution and range of 50% inhibitory concentrations (IC(50)s) of doxycycline were determined for 747 isolates obtained between 1997 and 2006 from patients living in Senegal, Republic of the Congo, and Gabon and patients hospitalized in France for imported malaria. The statistical analysis was designed to answer the specific question of whether Plasmodium falciparum has different phenotypes of susceptibility to doxycycline. A triple normal distribution was fitted to the data using a Bayesian mixture modeling approach. The IC(50) geometric mean ranged from 6.2 microM to 11.1 microM according to the geographical origin, with a mean of 9.3 microM for all 747 parasites. The values for all 747 isolates were classified into three components: component A, with an IC(50) mean of 4.9 microM (+/-2.1 microM [standard deviation]); component B, with an IC(50) mean of 7.7 microM (+/-1.2 microM); and component C, with an IC(50) mean of 17.9 microM (+/-1.4 microM). According to the origin of the P. falciparum isolates, the triple normal distribution was found in each subgroup. However, the proportion of isolates predicted to belong to component B was most important in isolates from Gabon and Congo and in isolates imported from Africa (from 46 to 56%). In Senegal, 55% of the P. falciparum isolates were predicted to be classified as component C. The cutoff of reduced susceptibility to doxycycline in vitro was estimated to be 35 microM.

Genetic determination and linkage mapping of Plasmodium falciparum malaria related traits in Senegal.

Plasmodium falciparum malaria episodes may vary considerably in their severity and clinical manifestations. There is good evidence that host genetic factors contribute to this variability. To date, most genetic studies aiming at the identification of these genes have used a case/control study design for severe malaria, exploring specific candidate genes. Here, we performed a family-based genetic study of falciparum malaria related phenotypes in two independent longitudinal survey cohorts, as a first step towards the identification of genes and mechanisms involved in the outcome of infection. We studied two Senegalese villages, Dielmo and Ndiop that differ in ethnicity, malaria transmission and endemicity. We performed genome-scan linkage analysis of several malaria-related phenotypes both during clinical attacks and asymptomatic infection. We show evidence for a strong genetic contribution to both the number of clinical falciparum malaria attacks and the asymptomatic parasite density. The asymptomatic parasite density showed linkage to chromosome 5q31 (LOD = 2.26, empirical p = 0.0014, Dielmo), confirming previous findings in other studies. Suggestive linkage values were also obtained at three additional chromosome regions: the number of clinical malaria attacks on chromosome 5p15 (LOD = 2.57, empirical p = 0.001, Dielmo) and 13q13 (LOD = 2.37, empirical p = 0.0014 Dielmo), and the maximum parasite density during asymptomatic infection on chromosome 12q21 (LOD = 3.1, empirical p<10(-4), Ndiop). While regions of linkage show little overlap with genes known to be involved in severe malaria, the four regions appear to overlap with regions linked to asthma or atopy related traits, suggesting that common immune related pathways may be involved.

Methicillin-susceptible, doxycycline-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, Côte d'Ivoire.

We report 2 outbreaks of Panton-Valentine leukocidin-positive, doxycycline-resistant, methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus infections in French soldiers operating in Côte d'Ivoire. In a transssectional survey, nasal carriage of this strain was found in 2.9% of 273 soldiers about to be sent to Côte d'Ivoire and was associated with prior malaria prophylaxis with doxycycline.