A Bayesian dose-finding trial with adaptive dose expansion to flexibly assess efficacy and safety of an investigational drug.

BACKGROUND: Adaptive dose-ranging trials are more efficient than traditional approaches and may be designed to explicitly address the goals and decisions inherent in learn-phase drug development. We report the design, implementation, and outcome of an innovative Bayesian, response-adaptive, dose-ranging trial of an investigational drug in patients with diabetes, incorporating a dose expansion approach to flexibly address both efficacy and safety. PURPOSE: The design was developed to assess whether one or more doses of an investigational drug demonstrated superior efficacy to an active control while maintaining an acceptable safety profile. METHODS: The trial used a two-stage design, in which patients were initially allocated equally to placebo, investigational drug at a low and a medium dose, and an active control. Movement to the second stage was contingent upon evidence of efficacy (measured by change in fasting blood glucose) to add a very low dose of the investigational drug and of safety (measured by weight gain) to add a high dose of the investigational drug. The design incorporated a longitudinal model to maximize use of incomplete data, predictive probabilities to guide the decisions to terminate the trial for futility or move on to Stage 2, and a dose-response model in Stage 2 to borrow information across adjacent doses. Extensive simulations were used to fine tune trial parameters, to define operating characteristics, and to determine the required sample sizes. A data monitoring committee was provided with frequent reports to aid in trial oversight. RESULTS: In Stage 1, as trial data accrued, the predictive probability that either the low or medium dose of the investigational drug was superior to the active control fell to low values. Stage 1 termination was recommended after 199 subjects were randomized, out of a maximum trial size of 500 subjects, and the final sample size was 218. Thus the trial did not progress to Stage 2. LIMITATIONS: Because of the relatively narrow dose range to be assessed, and the inability to utilize the highest dose at the beginning of the trial, a fully responsive-adaptive design incorporating dose-response modeling was not considered a viable option. This limited the efficiency gains possible with a full set of adaptive design elements. CONCLUSIONS: The two-stage dose-expansion design functioned as designed, recommending early termination based on a low probability that the tested doses had efficacy greater than the active control.

Molecular classification of Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis patients using transcriptional profiles in peripheral blood mononuclear cells.

Ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD) are common inflammatory bowel diseases producing intestinal inflammation and tissue damage. Although emerging evidence suggests these diseases are distinct, approximately 10% of patients remain classified as indeterminate inflammatory bowel disease even after invasive colonoscopy intended for diagnosis. A molecular diagnostic assay using a clinically accessible tissue would greatly assist in the classification of these diseases. In the present study we assessed transcriptional profiles in peripheral blood mononuclear cells from 42 healthy individuals, 59 CD patients, and 26 UC patients by hybridization to microarrays interrogating more than 22,000 sequences. Supervised analysis identified a set of 12 genes that distinguished UC and CD patient samples with high accuracy. The alterations in transcript levels observed by microarray were verified by real-time polymerase chain reaction. The results suggest that a peripheral blood mononuclear cell-based gene expression signature can provide a molecular biomarker that can complement the standard diagnosis of UC and CD.