Brain-inspired computing with fluidic iontronic nanochannels.

The brain's remarkable and efficient information processing capability is driving research into brain-inspired (neuromorphic) computing paradigms. Artificial aqueous ion channels are emerging as an exciting platform for neuromorphic computing, representing a departure from conventional solid-state devices by directly mimicking the brain's fluidic ion transport. Supported by a quantitative theoretical model, we present easy-to-fabricate tapered microchannels that embed a conducting network of fluidic nanochannels between a colloidal structure. Due to transient salt concentration polarization, our devices are volatile memristors (memory resistors) that are remarkably stable. The voltage-driven net salt flux and accumulation, that underpin the concentration polarization, surprisingly combine into a diffusionlike quadratic dependence of the memory retention time on the channel length, allowing channel design for a specific timescale. We implement our device as a synaptic element for neuromorphic reservoir computing. Individual channels distinguish various time series, that together represent (handwritten) numbers, for subsequent in silico classification with a simple readout function. Our results represent a significant step toward realizing the promise of fluidic ion channels as a platform to emulate the rich aqueous dynamics of the brain.

Learning models for classifying Raman spectra of genomic DNA from tumor subtypes.

An early and accurate detection of different subtypes of tumors is crucial for an effective guidance to personalized therapy and in predicting the ability of tumor to metastasize. Here we exploit the Surface Enhanced Raman Scattering (SERS) platform, based on disordered silver coated silicon nanowires (Ag/SiNWs), to efficiently discriminate genomic DNA of different subtypes of melanoma and colon tumors. The diagnostic information is obtained by performing label free Raman maps of the dried drops of DNA solutions onto the Ag/NWs mat and leveraging the classification ability of learning models to reveal the specific and distinct physico-chemical interaction of tumor DNA molecules with the Ag/NW, here supposed to be partly caused by a different DNA methylation degree.

Metastability of Synchronous and Asynchronous Dynamics.

Metastability is a ubiquitous phenomenon in nature, which interests several fields of natural sciences. Since metastability is a genuine non-equilibrium phenomenon, its description in the framework of thermodynamics and statistical mechanics has progressed slowly for a long time. Since the publication of the first seminal paper in which the metastable behavior of the mean field Curie-Weiss model was approached by means of stochastic techniques, this topic has been largely studied by the scientific community. Several papers and books have been published in which many different spin models were studied and different approaches were developed. In this review, we focus on the comparison between the metastable behavior of synchronous and asynchronous dynamics, namely, stochastic processes in discrete time in which, at each time, either all the spins or one single spin is updated. In particular, we discuss how two different stochastic implementations of the very same Hamiltonian give rise to different metastable behaviors.

Correction to: Predicting the clinical trajectory in critically ill patients with sepsis: a cohort study.

In the publication of this article [1], there are 4 collaborating authors missing from the 'MARS consortium'. This has now been included in this correction article.

Predicting the clinical trajectory in critically ill patients with sepsis: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: To develop a mathematical model to estimate daily evolution of disease severity using routinely available parameters in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). METHODS: Over a 3-year period, we prospectively enrolled consecutive adults with sepsis and categorized patients as (1) being at risk for developing (more severe) organ dysfunction, (2) having (potentially still reversible) limited organ failure, or (3) having multiple-organ failure. Daily probabilities for transitions between these disease states, and to death or discharge, during the first 2 weeks in ICU were calculated using a multi-state model that was updated every 2 days using both baseline and time-varying information. The model was validated in independent patients. RESULTS: We studied 1371 sepsis admissions in 1251 patients. Upon presentation, 53 (4%) were classed at risk, 1151 (84%) had limited organ failure, and 167 (12%) had multiple-organ failure. Among patients with limited organ failure, 197 (17%) evolved to multiple-organ failure or died and 809 (70%) improved or were discharged alive within 14 days. Among patients with multiple-organ failure, 67 (40%) died and 91 (54%) improved or were discharged. Treatment response could be predicted with reasonable accuracy (c-statistic ranging from 0.55 to 0.81 for individual disease states, and 0.67 overall). Model performance in the validation cohort was similar. CONCLUSIONS: This prediction model that estimates daily evolution of disease severity during sepsis may eventually support clinicians in making better informed treatment decisions and could be used to evaluate prognostic biomarkers or perform in silico modeling of novel sepsis therapies during trial design. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01905033.

Method to measure the mismatch between target and achieved received dose intensity of chemotherapy in cancer trials: a retrospective analysis of the MRC BO06 trial in osteosarcoma.

OBJECTIVES: In cancer studies, the target received dose intensity (tRDI) for any regimen, the intended dose and time for the regimen, is commonly taken as a proxy for achieved RDI (aRDI), the actual individual dose and time for the regimen. Evaluating tRDI/aRDI mismatches is crucial to assess study results whenever patients are stratified on allocated regimen. The manuscript develops a novel methodology to highlight and evaluate tRDI/aRDI mismatches. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of a randomised controlled trial, MRC BO06 (EORTC 80931). SETTING: Population-based study but proposed methodology can be applied to other trial designs. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 497 patients with resectable high-grade osteosarcoma, of which 19 were excluded because chemotherapy was not started or the estimated dose was abnormally high (>1.25 × prescribed dose). INTERVENTIONS: Two regimens with the same anticipated cumulative dose (doxorubicin 6×75 mg/m2/week; cisplatin 6×100 mg/m2/week) over different time schedules: every 3 weeks in regimen-C and every 2 weeks in regimen-DI. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: tRDI distribution was measured across groups of patients derived from k-means clustering of treatment data. K-means creates groups of patients who are aRDI-homogeneous. The main outcome is the proportion of tRDI values in groups of homogeneous aRDI. RESULTS: For nearly half of the patients, there is a mismatch between tRDI and aRDI; for 21%, aRDI was closer to the tRDI of the other regimen. CONCLUSIONS: For MRC BO06, tRDI did not predict well aRDI. The manuscript offers an original procedure to highlight the presence of and quantify tRDI/aRDI mismatches. Caution is required to interpret the effect of chemotherapy-regimen intensification on survival outcome at an individual level where such a mismatch is present.The study relevance lies in the use of individual realisation of the intended treatment, which depends on individual delays and/or dose reductions reported throughout the treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN86294690.

A novel method to address the association between received dose intensity and survival outcome: benefits of approaching treatment intensification at a more individualised level in a trial of the European Osteosarcoma Intergroup.

PURPOSE: There is lack of consensus on the prognostic value of received high dose intensity in osteosarcoma survivorship. Many studies have not shown a clear survival benefit when dose intensity is increased. The aim of this study is to go beyond chemotherapy intensification by arm-wide escalation of intended dose and/or compression of treatment schedule, while conversely addressing the relationship between treatment intensity and survival at the patient level. The study focusses on the difference in outcome results, based on a novel, progressively more individualised approach to dose intensity. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of data from MRC BO06/EORTC 80931 randomised controlled trial for treatment of osteosarcoma was conducted. Three types of post hoc patient groups are formed using the intended regimen: the individually achieved cumulative dose and time on treatment, and the increase of individual cumulative dose over time. Event-free survival is investigated and compared in these three stratifications. RESULTS: The strata of intended regimen and achieved treatment yields equivalent results. Received cumulative dose over time produces groups with evident different survivorship characteristics. In particular, it highlights a group of patients with an estimated 3-year event-free survival much larger (more than 10%) than other patient groups. This group mostly contains patients randomised to an intensified regimen. In addition, adverse events reported by that group show the presence of increased preoperative myelotoxicity. CONCLUSIONS: The manuscript shows the benefits of analyzing studies by using longitudinal data, e.g. recorded per cycle. This has impact on the drafting of future trials by showing why such a level of detail is needed for both treatment and adverse event data. The novel method proposed, based on cumulative dose received over time, shows that longitudinal treatment data might be used to link survival outcome with drug metabolism. This is particularly valuable when pharmacogenetics data for metabolism of cytotoxic agents are not collected. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN86294690.

Cardiac events after macrolides or fluoroquinolones in patients hospitalized for community-acquired pneumonia: post-hoc analysis of a cluster-randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines recommend macrolides and fluoroquinolones in patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), but their use has been associated with cardiac events. We quantified associations between macrolide and fluoroquinolone use and cardiac events in patients hospitalized with CAP in non-ICU wards. METHODS: This was a post-hoc analysis of a cluster-randomized trial as a cohort study; including patients with a working diagnosis of CAP admitted to non-ICU wards without a cardiac event on admission. We calculated cause-specific hazard ratio's (HR's) for effects of time-dependent macrolide and fluoroquinolone exposure as compared to beta-lactam monotherapy on cardiac events, defined as new or worsening heart failure, arrhythmia, or myocardial ischemia during hospitalization. RESULTS: Cardiac events occurred in 146 (6.9%) of 2107 patients, including heart failure (n = 101, 4.8%), arrhythmia (n = 53, 2.5%), and myocardial ischemia (n = 14, 0.7%). These occurred in 11 of 207 (5.3%), 18 of 250 (7.2%), and 31 of 277 (11.2%) patients exposed to azithromycin, clarithromycin, and erythromycin for at least one day, and in 9 of 234 (3.8%), 5 of 194 (2.6%), and 23 of 566 (4.1%) exposed to ciprofloxacin, levofloxacin, and moxifloxacin, respectively. HR's for erythromycin, compared to beta-lactam monotherapy, on any cardiac event and heart failure were 1.60 (95% CI 1.09;2.36) and 1.89 (95% CI 1.22;2.91), respectively. HR's for levofloxacin and moxifloxacin, compared to beta-lactam monotherapy, on any cardiac event were 0.40 (95% CI 0.18;0.87)and 0.56 (95% CI 0.36;0.87), respectively. Findings remained consistent after adjustment for confounders and/or in a sensitivity analysis of radiologically confirmed CAP (n = 1604, 76.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with CAP hospitalized to non-ICU wards, erythromycin use was associated with a 68% increased risk of hospital-acquired cardiac events, mainly heart failure. Levofloxacin and moxifloxacin were associated with a lower risk of heart failure. Although our study does not fully exclude confounding bias, findings remained largely unchanged in crude, adjusted, and sensitivity analyses. These findings may caution the use of erythromycin as empirical therapy in these patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The original trial was retrospectively registered under ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT01660204 on August 8th, 2012.

Marginal structural models with dose-delay joint-exposure for assessing variations to chemotherapy intensity.

Marginal structural models are causal models designed to adjust for time-dependent confounders in observational studies with dynamically adjusted treatments. They are robust tools to assess causality in complex longitudinal data. In this paper, a marginal structural model is proposed with an innovative dose-delay joint-exposure model for Inverse-Probability-of-Treatment Weighted estimation of the causal effect of alterations to the therapy intensity. The model is motivated by a precise clinical question concerning the possibility of reducing dosages in a regimen. It is applied to data from a randomised trial of chemotherapy in osteosarcoma, an aggressive primary bone-tumour. Chemotherapy data are complex because their longitudinal nature encompasses many clinical details like composition and organisation of multi-drug regimens, or dynamical therapy adjustments. This manuscript focuses on the clinical dynamical process of adjusting the therapy according to the patient's toxicity history, and the causal effect on the outcome of interest of such therapy modifications. Depending on patients' toxicity levels, variations to therapy intensity may be achieved by physicians through the allocation of either a reduction or a delay of the next planned dose. Thus, a negative feedback is present between exposure to cytotoxic agents and toxicity levels, which acts as time-dependent confounders. The construction of the model is illustrated highlighting the high complexity and entanglement of chemotherapy data. Built to address dosage reductions, the model also shows that delays in therapy administration should be avoided. The last aspect makes sense from the cytological point of view, but it is seldom addressed in the literature.

Non-parametric estimation of transition probabilities in non-Markov multi-state models: The landmark Aalen-Johansen estimator.

The topic non-parametric estimation of transition probabilities in non-Markov multi-state models has seen a remarkable surge of activity recently. Two recent papers have used the idea of subsampling in this context. The first paper, by de Uña Álvarez and Meira-Machado, uses a procedure based on (differences between) Kaplan-Meier estimators derived from a subset of the data consisting of all subjects observed to be in the given state at the given time. The second, by Titman, derived estimators of transition probabilities that are consistent in general non-Markov multi-state models. Here, we show that the same idea of subsampling, used in both these papers, combined with the Aalen-Johansen estimate of the state occupation probabilities derived from that subset, can also be used to obtain a relatively simple and intuitive procedure which we term landmark Aalen-Johansen. We show that the landmark Aalen-Johansen estimator yields a consistent estimator of the transition probabilities in general non-Markov multi-state models under the same conditions as needed for consistency of the Aalen-Johansen estimator of the state occupation probabilities. Simulation studies show that the landmark Aalen-Johansen estimator has good small sample properties and is slightly more efficient than the other estimators.

Myocardial Injury in Patients With Sepsis and Its Association With Long-Term Outcome.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis is frequently complicated by the release of cardiac troponin, but the clinical significance of this myocardial injury remains unclear. We studied the associations between troponin release during sepsis and 1-year outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: We enrolled consecutive patients with sepsis in 2 Dutch intensive care units between 2011 and 2013. Subjects with a clinically apparent cause of troponin release were excluded. High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) concentration in plasma was measured daily during the first 4 intensive care unit days, and multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to model its association with 1-year mortality while adjusting for confounding. In addition, we studied cardiovascular morbidity occurring during the first year after hospital discharge. Among 1258 patients presenting with sepsis, 1124 (89%) were eligible for study inclusion. Hs-cTnI concentrations were elevated in 673 (60%) subjects on day 1, and 755 (67%) ever had elevated levels in the first 4 days. Cox regression analysis revealed that high hs-cTnI concentrations were associated with increased death rates during the first 14 days (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.72; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-2.59 and hazard ratio, 1.70; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-2.62 for hs-cTnI concentrations of 100-500 and >500 ng/L, respectively) but not thereafter. Furthermore, elevated hs-cTnI levels were associated with the development of cardiovascular disease among 200 hospital survivors who were analyzed for this end point (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio, 1.25; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.50). CONCLUSIONS: Myocardial injury occurs in the majority of patients with sepsis and is independently associated with early-but not late-mortality, as well as postdischarge cardiovascular morbidity.

Associations Between Enteral Colonization With Gram-Negative Bacteria and Intensive Care Unit-Acquired Infections and Colonization of the Respiratory Tract.

Background: Enteral and respiratory tract colonization with gram-negative bacteria may lead to subsequent infections in critically ill patients. We aimed to clarify the interdependence between gut and respiratory tract colonization and their associations with intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired infections in patients receiving selective digestive tract decontamination (SDD). Methods: Colonization status of the rectum and respiratory tract was determined using twice-weekly microbiological surveillance in mechanically ventilated subjects receiving SDD between May 2011 and June 2015 in a tertiary medical-surgical ICU in the Netherlands. Acquisition of infections was monitored daily by dedicated observers. Marginal structural models were used to determine the associations between gram-negative rectal colonization and respiratory tract colonization, ICU-acquired gram-negative infection, and ICU-acquired gram-negative bacteremia. Results: Among 2066 ICU admissions, 1157 (56.0%) ever had documented gram-negative carriage in the rectum during ICU stay. Cumulative incidences of ICU-acquired gram-negative infection and bacteremia were 6.0% (n = 124) and 2.1% (n = 44), respectively. Rectal colonization was an independent risk factor for both respiratory tract colonization (cause-specific hazard ratio [CSHR], 2.93 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 2.02-4.23]) and new gram-negative infection in the ICU (CSHR, 3.04 [95% CI, 1.99-4.65]). Both rectal and respiratory tract colonization were associated with bacteremia (CSHR, 7.37 [95% CI, 3.25-16.68] and 2.56 [95% CI, 1.09-6.03], respectively). Similar associations were observed when Enterobacteriaceae and glucose nonfermenting gram-negative bacteria were analyzed separately. Conclusions: Gram-negative rectal colonization tends to be stronger associated with subsequent ICU-acquired gram-negative infections than gram-negative respiratory tract colonization. Gram-negative rectal colonization seems hardly associated with subsequent ICU-acquired gram-negative respiratory tract colonization.

Prediction errors for state occupation and transition probabilities in multi-state models.

In this paper, we consider the estimation of prediction errors for state occupation probabilities and transition probabilities for multistate time-to-event data. We study prediction errors based on the Brier score and on the Kullback-Leibler score and prove their properness. In the presence of right-censored data, two classes of estimators, based on inverse probability weighting and pseudo-values, respectively, are proposed, and consistency properties of the proposed estimators are investigated. The second part of the paper is devoted to the estimation of dynamic prediction errors for state occupation probabilities for multistate models, conditional on being alive, and for transition probabilities. Cross-validated versions are proposed. Our methods are illustrated on the CSL1 randomized clinical trial comparing prednisone versus placebo for liver cirrhosis patients.

Epidemiology of Multiple Herpes Viremia in Previously Immunocompetent Patients With Septic Shock.

Background: Systemic reactivations of herpesviruses may occur in intensive care unit (ICU) patients, even in those without prior immune deficiency. However, the clinical relevance of these events is uncertain. Methods: In this study we selected patients admitted with septic shock and treated for more than 4 days from a prospectively enrolled cohort of consecutive adults in the mixed ICUs of 2 tertiary care hospitals in the Netherlands. We excluded patients who had received antiviral treatment in the week before ICU admission and those with known immunodeficiency. We studied viremia episodes with cytomegalovirus (CMV), Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), human herpesvirus 6 (HHV-6), herpes simplex virus types 1 (HSV-1) and 2 (HSV-2), and varicella zoster virus (VZV) by weekly polymerase chain reaction in plasma. Results: Among 329 patients, we observed 399 viremia episodes in 223 (68%) patients. Viremia with CMV, EBV, HHV-6, HSV-1, HSV-2, and VZV was detected in 60 (18%), 157 (48%), 80 (24%), 87 (26%), 13 (4%), and 2 (0.6%) patients, respectively; 112 (34%) patients had multiple concurrent viremia events. Crude mortality in the ICU was 36% in this latter group compared to 19% in remaining patients (P < .01). After adjustment for potential confounders, time-dependent bias, and competing risks, only concurrent CMV and EBV reactivations remained independently associated with increased mortality (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio, 3.17; 95% confidence interval, 1.41-7.13). Conclusions: Herpesvirus reactivations were documented in 68% of septic shock patients without prior immunodeficiency and frequently occurred simultaneously. Concurrent reactivations could be independently associated with mortality. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT01905033.

The Effect of Strict Segregation on Pseudomonas aeruginosa in Cystic Fibrosis Patients.

INTRODUCTION: Segregation of patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) was implemented to prevent chronic infection with epidemic Pseudomonas aeruginosa strains with presumed detrimental clinical effects, but its effectiveness has not been carefully evaluated. METHODS: The effect of strict segregation on the incidence of P. aeruginosa infection in CF patients was investigated through longitudinal protocolized follow-up of respiratory tract infection before and after segregation. In two nested cross-sectional studies in 2007 and 2011 the P. aeruginosa population structure was investigated and clinical parameters were determined in patients with and without infection with the Dutch epidemic P. aeruginosa clone (ST406). RESULTS: Of 784 included patients 315 and 382 were at risk for acquiring chronic P. aeruginosa infection before and after segregation. Acquisition rates were, respectively, 0.14 and 0.05 per 1,000 days at risk (HR: 0.66, 95% CI [0.2548-1.541]; p = 0.28). An exploratory subgroup analysis indicated lower acquisition after segregation in children < 15 years of age (HR: 0.43, 95% CI[0.21-0.95]; p = 0.04). P. aeruginosa population structure did not change after segregation and ST406 was not associated with lung function decline, death or lung transplantation. CONCLUSIONS: Strict segregation was not associated with a statistically significant lower acquisition of chronic P. aeruginosa infection and ST406 was not associated with adverse clinical outcome. After segregation there were no new acquisitions of ST406. In an unplanned exploratory analysis chronic acquisition of P. aeruginosa was lower after implementation of segregation in patients under 15 years of age.

Incidence, Risk Factors, and Attributable Mortality of Secondary Infections in the Intensive Care Unit After Admission for Sepsis.

IMPORTANCE: Sepsis is considered to induce immune suppression, leading to increased susceptibility to secondary infections with associated late mortality. OBJECTIVE: To determine the clinical and host genomic characteristics, incidence, and attributable mortality of intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired infections in patients admitted to the ICU with or without sepsis. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Prospective observational study comprising consecutive admissions of more than 48 hours in 2 ICUs in the Netherlands from January 2011 to July 2013 stratified according to admission diagnosis (sepsis or noninfectious). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was ICU-acquired infection (onset >48 hours). Attributable mortality risk (fraction of mortality that can be prevented by elimination of the risk factor, acquired infection) was determined using time-to-event models accounting for competing risk. In a subset of sepsis admissions (n = 461), blood gene expression (whole-genome transcriptome in leukocytes) was analyzed at baseline and at onset of ICU-acquired infectious (n = 19) and noninfectious (n = 9) events. RESULTS: The primary cohort included 1719 sepsis admissions (1504 patients; median age, 62 years; interquartile range [IQR], 51-71 years]; 924 men [61.4%]). A comparative cohort included 1921 admissions (1825 patients, median age, 62 years; IQR, 49-71 years; 1128 men [61.8%] in whom infection was not present in the first 48 hours. Intensive care unit-acquired infections occurred in 13.5% of sepsis ICU admissions (n = 232) and 15.1% of nonsepsis ICU admissions (n = 291). Patients with sepsis who developed an ICU-acquired infection had higher disease severity scores on admission than patients with sepsis who did not develop an ICU-acquired infection (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV [APACHE IV] median score, 90 [IQR, 72-107] vs 79 [IQR, 62-98]; P < .001) and throughout their ICU stay but did not have differences in baseline gene expression. The population attributable mortality fraction of ICU-acquired infections in patients with sepsis was 10.9% (95% CI, 0.9%-20.6%) by day 60; the estimated difference between mortality in all patients with a sepsis admission diagnosis and mortality in those without ICU-acquired infection was 2.0% (95% CI, 0.2%-3.8%; P = .03) by day 60. Among nonsepsis ICU admissions, ICU-acquired infections had a population attributable mortality fraction of 21.1% (95% CI, 0.6%-41.7%) by day 60. Compared with baseline, blood gene expression at the onset of ICU-acquired infections showed reduced expression of genes involved in gluconeogenesis and glycolysis. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Intensive care unit-acquired infections occurred more commonly in patients with sepsis with higher disease severity, but such infections contributed only modestly to overall mortality. The genomic response of patients with sepsis was consistent with immune suppression at the onset of secondary infection.

Cytomegalovirus reactivation and mortality in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome.

PURPOSE: Cytomegalovirus (CMV) reactivation occurs frequently in patients with the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and has been associated with increased mortality. However, it remains unknown whether this association represents an independent risk for poor outcome. We aimed to estimate the attributable effect of CMV reactivation on mortality in immunocompetent ARDS patients. METHODS: We prospectively studied immunocompetent ARDS patients who tested seropositive for CMV and remained mechanically ventilated beyond day 4 in two tertiary intensive care units in the Netherlands from 2011 to 2013. CMV loads were determined in plasma weekly. Competing risks Cox regression was used with CMV reactivation status as a time-dependent exposure variable. Subsequently, in sensitivity analyses we adjusted for the evolution of disease severity until onset of reactivation using marginal structural modeling. RESULTS: Of 399 ARDS patients, 271 (68%) were CMV seropositive and reactivation occurred in 74 (27%) of them. After adjustment for confounding and competing risks, CMV reactivation was associated with overall increased ICU mortality (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) 2.74, 95% CI 1.51-4.97), which resulted from the joint action of trends toward an increased mortality rate (direct effect; cause specific hazard ratio (HR) 1.58, 95% CI 0.86-2.90) and a reduced successful weaning rate (indirect effect; cause specific HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.58-1.18). These associations remained in sensitivity analyses. The population-attributable fraction of ICU mortality was 23% (95% CI 6-41) by day 30 (risk difference 4.4, 95% CI 1.1-7.9). CONCLUSION: CMV reactivation is independently associated with increased case fatality in immunocompetent ARDS patients who are CMV seropositive.

Epidemiology, Management, and Risk-Adjusted Mortality of ICU-Acquired Enterococcal Bacteremia.

BACKGROUND: Enterococcal bacteremia has been associated with high case fatality, but it remains unknown to what extent death is caused by these infections. We therefore quantified attributable mortality of intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired bacteremia caused by enterococci. METHODS: From 2011 to 2013 we studied consecutive patients who stayed >48 hours in 2 tertiary ICUs in the Netherlands, using competing risk survival regression and marginal structural modeling to estimate ICU mortality caused by enterococcal bacteremia. RESULTS: Among 3080 admissions, 266 events of ICU-acquired bacteremia occurred in 218 (7.1%) patients, of which 76 were caused by enterococci (incidence rate, 3.0 per 1000 patient-days at risk; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.3-3.7). A catheter-related bloodstream infection (CRBSI) was suspected in 44 (58%) of these, prompting removal of 68% of indwelling catheters and initiation of antibiotic treatment for a median duration of 3 (interquartile range 1-7) days. Enterococcal bacteremia was independently associated with an increased case fatality rate (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR], 2.68; 95% CI, 1.44-4.98). However, for patients with CRBSI, case fatality was similar for infections caused by enterococci and coagulase-negative staphylococci (CoNS; adjusted SHR, 0.91; 95% CI, .50-1.67). Population-attributable fraction of mortality was 4.9% (95% CI, 2.9%-6.9%) by day 90, reflecting a population-attributable risk of 0.8% (95% CI, .4%-1.1%). CONCLUSIONS: ICU-acquired enterococcal bacteremia is associated with increased case fatality; however, the mortality attributable to these infections is low from a population perspective. The virulence of enterococci and CoNS in a setting of CRBSI seems comparable.

Cytomegalovirus seroprevalence as a risk factor for poor outcome in acute respiratory distress syndrome*.

OBJECTIVE: Cytomegalovirus reactivation may complicate critical illness in latent carriers of the virus, even in patients who were previously immunocompetent. Patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome are considered to be prone for reactivation. Prophylactic antiviral therapy in immunocompetent cytomegalovirus seropositive patients admitted to the ICU with acute respiratory distress syndrome has therefore been proposed. We assessed cytomegalovirus seroprevalence as a risk factor for morbidity and mortality in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome. DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study. We used the number of days alive and free of mechanical ventilation on day 28 as a composite outcome measure and used multivariable ordinal logistic regression analyses to adjust for potential confounders. SETTING: ICUs of two tertiary care hospitals in The Netherlands. PATIENTS: We included all newly admitted patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome who received mechanical ventilation for at least 4 days. Patients with known immunocompromise and those receiving antiviral treatment prior to ICU admission were excluded. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Over a 2-year period, 306 patients were included, 209 (68%) of whom were cytomegalovirus seropositive. Cytomegalovirus reactivation occurred in 53 of these cases (26%). One hundred patients (33%) died or continued to be mechanically ventilated by day 28. After adjustment for confounding, cytomegalovirus seroprevalence was not associated with the primary outcome (crude odds ratio, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.70-1.70; adjusted odds ratio, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.64-1.59). Seroprevalence was also not associated with poor outcome in any of the prespecified subgroup analyses. However, a significant association was found in a post hoc subgroup of patients who had developed acute respiratory distress syndrome in a setting of septic shock (adjusted odds ratio, 2.86; 95% CI, 1.32-6.23). The time course of pulmonary markers in survivors was comparable between the two serogroups. CONCLUSIONS: Cytomegalovirus seroprevalence is not associated with prolonged mechanical ventilation or increased mortality in critically ill patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome, with possible exception of patients presenting with septic shock. Therefore, a prevention strategy targeting an unselected cohort of seropositive patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome is unlikely to show any meaningful benefit.

The attributable mortality of delirium in critically ill patients: prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the attributable mortality caused by delirium in critically ill patients. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: 32 mixed bed intensive care unit in the Netherlands, January 2011 to July 2013. PARTICIPANTS: 1112 consecutive adults admitted to an intensive care unit for a minimum of 24 hours. EXPOSURES: Trained observers evaluated delirium daily using a validated protocol. Logistic regression and competing risks survival analyses were used to adjust for baseline variables and a marginal structural model analysis to adjust for confounding by evolution of disease severity before the onset of delirium. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Mortality during admission to an intensive care unit. RESULTS: Among 1112 evaluated patients, 558 (50.2%) developed at least one episode of delirium, with a median duration of 3 days (interquartile range 2-7 days). Crude mortality was 94/558 (17%) in patients with delirium compared with 40/554 (7%) in patients without delirium (P<0.001). Delirium was significantly associated with mortality in the multivariable logistic regression analysis (odds ratio 1.77, 95% confidence interval 1.15 to 2.72) and survival analysis (subdistribution hazard ratio 2.08, 95% confidence interval 1.40 to 3.09). However, the association disappeared after adjustment for time varying confounders in the marginal structural model (subdistribution hazard ratio 1.19, 95% confidence interval 0.75 to 1.89). Using this approach, only 7.2% (95% confidence interval -7.5% to 19.5%) of deaths in the intensive care unit were attributable to delirium, with an absolute mortality excess in patients with delirium of 0.9% (95% confidence interval -0.9% to 2.3%) by day 30. In post hoc analyses, however, delirium that persisted for two days or more remained associated with a 2.0% (95% confidence interval 1.2% to 2.8%) absolute mortality increase. Furthermore, competing risk analysis showed that delirium of any duration was associated with a significantly reduced rate of discharge from the intensive care unit (cause specific hazard ratio 0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.55 to 0.76). CONCLUSIONS: Overall, delirium prolongs admission in the intensive care unit but does not cause death in critically ill patients. Future studies should focus on episodes of persistent delirium and its long term sequelae rather than on acute mortality.Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01905033.