Assessing impacts of bycatch policies and fishers' heterogeneous information on food webs and fishery sustainability.

Ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) has emerged as a promising framework for understanding and managing the long-term interactions between fisheries and the larger marine ecosystems in which they are nested. However, successful implementation of EBFM has been elusive because we still lack a comprehensive understanding of the network of interacting species in marine ecosystems (the food web) and the dynamic relationship between the food web and the humans who harvest those ecosystems. Here, we advance such understanding by developing a network framework that integrates the complexity of food webs with the economic dynamics of different management policies. Specifically, we generate hundreds of different food web models with 20-30 species, each harvested by five different fishers extracting the biomass of a target and a bycatch species, subject to two different management scenarios and exhibiting different information in terms of avoiding bycatch when harvesting the target species. We assess the different ecological and economic consequences of these policy alternatives as species extinctions and profit from sustaining the fishery. We present the results of different policies relative to a benchmark open access scenario where there are no management policies in place. The framework of our network model would allow policymakers to evaluate different management approaches without compromising on the ecological complexities of a fishery.This article is part of the theme issue 'Connected interactions: enriching food web research by spatial and social interactions'.

Hidden patterns of insect establishment risk revealed from two centuries of alien species discoveries.

Understanding the socioeconomic drivers of biological invasion informs policy development for curtailing future invasions. While early 20th-century plant trade expansions preceded increased establishments of plant pests in Northern America, increased establishments did not follow accelerating imports later that century. To explore this puzzle, we estimate the historical establishment of plant-feeding Hemiptera in Northern America as a function of historical U.S. imports of live plants from seven world regions. Delays between establishment and discovery are modeled using a previously unused proxy for dynamic discovery effort. By recovering the timing of pest arrivals from their historical discoveries, we disentangle the joint establishment-discovery process. We estimate long delays to discovery, which are partially attributable to the low detectability of less economically important insect species. We estimate that many introduced species remain undiscovered, ranging from around one-fifth for Eurasian regions to two-fifths for Central and South America.

Dynamic prioritization of COVID-19 vaccines when social distancing is limited for essential workers.

COVID-19 vaccines have been authorized in multiple countries, and more are under rapid development. Careful design of a vaccine prioritization strategy across sociodemographic groups is a crucial public policy challenge given that 1) vaccine supply will be constrained for the first several months of the vaccination campaign, 2) there are stark differences in transmission and severity of impacts from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) across groups, and 3) SARS-CoV-2 differs markedly from previous pandemic viruses. We assess the optimal allocation of a limited vaccine supply in the United States across groups differentiated by age and essential worker status, which constrains opportunities for social distancing. We model transmission dynamics using a compartmental model parameterized to capture current understanding of the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19, including key sources of group heterogeneity (susceptibility, severity, and contact rates). We investigate three alternative policy objectives (minimizing infections, years of life lost, or deaths) and model a dynamic strategy that evolves with the population epidemiological status. We find that this temporal flexibility contributes substantially to public health goals. Older essential workers are typically targeted first. However, depending on the objective, younger essential workers are prioritized to control spread or seniors to directly control mortality. When the objective is minimizing deaths, relative to an untargeted approach, prioritization averts deaths on a range between 20,000 (when nonpharmaceutical interventions are strong) and 300,000 (when these interventions are weak). We illustrate how optimal prioritization is sensitive to several factors, most notably, vaccine effectiveness and supply, rate of transmission, and the magnitude of initial infections.

Political economy of renewable resource federalism.

The authority to manage natural capital often follows political boundaries rather than ecological. This mismatch can lead to unsustainable outcomes, as spillovers from one management area to the next may create adverse incentives for local decision making, even within a single country. At the same time, one-size-fits-all approaches of federal (centralized) authority can fail to respond to state (decentralized) heterogeneity and can result in inefficient economic or detrimental ecological outcomes. Here we utilize a spatially explicit coupled natural-human system model of a fishery to illuminate trade-offs posed by the choice between federal vs. state control of renewable resources. We solve for the dynamics of fishing effort and fish stocks that result from different approaches to federal management that vary in terms of flexibility. Adapting numerical methods from engineering, we also solve for the open-loop Nash equilibrium characterizing state management outcomes, where each state anticipates and responds to the choices of the others. We consider traditional federalism questions (state vs. federal management) as well as more contemporary questions about the economic and ecological impacts of shifting regulatory authority from one level to another. The key mechanisms behind the trade-offs include whether differences in local conditions are driven by biological or economic mechanisms; degree of flexibility embedded in the federal management; the spatial and temporal distribution of economic returns across states; and the status-quo management type. While simple rules-of-thumb are elusive, our analysis reveals the complex political economy dimensions of renewable resource federalism.

Dynamic Prioritization of COVID-19 Vaccines When Social Distancing is Limited for Essential Workers.

COVID-19 vaccines have been authorized in multiple countries and more are under rapid development. Careful design of a vaccine prioritization strategy across socio-demographic groups is a crucial public policy challenge given that (1) vaccine supply will be constrained for the first several months of the vaccination campaign, (2) there are stark differences in transmission and severity of impacts from SARS-CoV-2 across groups, and (3) SARS-CoV-2 differs markedly from previous pandemic viruses. We assess the optimal allocation of a limited vaccine supply in the U.S. across groups differentiated by age and also essential worker status, which constrains opportunities for social distancing. We model transmission dynamics using a compartmental model parameterized to capture current understanding of the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19, including key sources of group heterogeneity (susceptibility, severity, and contact rates). We investigate three alternative policy objectives (minimizing infections, years of life lost, or deaths) and model a dynamic strategy that evolves with the population epidemiological status. We find that this temporal flexibility contributes substantially to public health goals. Older essential workers are typically targeted first. However, depending on the objective, younger essential workers are prioritized to control spread or seniors to directly control mortality. When the objective is minimizing deaths, relative to an untargeted approach, prioritization averts deaths on a range between 20,000 (when non-pharmaceutical interventions are strong) and 300,000 (when these interventions are weak). We illustrate how optimal prioritization is sensitive to several factors, most notably vaccine effectiveness and supply, rate of transmission, and the magnitude of initial infections.

Social distancing responses to COVID-19 emergency declarations strongly differentiated by income.

In the absence of a vaccine, social distancing measures are one of the primary tools to reduce the transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus, which causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We show that social distancing following US state-level emergency declarations substantially varies by income. Using mobility measures derived from mobile device location pings, we find that wealthier areas decreased mobility significantly more than poorer areas, and this general pattern holds across income quantiles, data sources, and mobility measures. Using an event study design focusing on behavior subsequent to state emergency orders, we document a reversal in the ordering of social distancing by income: Wealthy areas went from most mobile before the pandemic to least mobile, while, for multiple measures, the poorest areas went from least mobile to most. Previous research has shown that lower income communities have higher levels of preexisting health conditions and lower access to healthcare. Combining this with our core finding-that lower income communities exhibit less social distancing-suggests a double burden of the COVID-19 pandemic with stark distributional implications.

Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert-based assessment.

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%-30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions-transport, climate change and socio-economic change-were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Accounting for behavioral responses during a flu epidemic using home television viewing.

BACKGROUND: Theory suggests that individual behavioral responses impact the spread of flu-like illnesses, but this has been difficult to empirically characterize. Social distancing is an important component of behavioral response, though analyses have been limited by a lack of behavioral data. Our objective is to use media data to characterize social distancing behavior in order to empirically inform explanatory and predictive epidemiological models. METHODS: We use data on variation in home television viewing as a proxy for variation in time spent in the home and, by extension, contact. This behavioral proxy is imperfect but appealing since information on a rich and representative sample is collected using consistent techniques across time and most major cities. We study the April-May 2009 outbreak of A/H1N1 in Central Mexico and examine the dynamic behavioral response in aggregate and contrast the observed patterns of various demographic subgroups. We develop and calibrate a dynamic behavioral model of disease transmission informed by the proxy data on daily variation in contact rates and compare it to a standard (non-adaptive) model and a fixed effects model that crudely captures behavior. RESULTS: We find that after a demonstrable initial behavioral response (consistent with social distancing) at the onset of the outbreak, there was attenuation in the response before the conclusion of the public health intervention. We find substantial differences in the behavioral response across age subgroups and socioeconomic levels. We also find that the dynamic behavioral and fixed effects transmission models better account for variation in new confirmed cases, generate more stable estimates of the baseline rate of transmission over time and predict the number of new cases over a short horizon with substantially less error. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that A/H1N1 had an innate transmission potential greater than previously thought but this was masked by behavioral responses. Observed differences in behavioral response across demographic groups indicate a potential benefit from targeting social distancing outreach efforts.

Integrating invasion and disease in the risk assessment of live bird trade.

AIM: International trade in plants and animals generates significant economic benefits. It also leads to substantial unintended impacts when introduced species become invasive, causing environmental disturbance or transmitting diseases that affect people, livestock, other wildlife or the environment. Policy responses are usually only implemented after these species become established and damages are already incurred. International agreements to control trade are likewise usually based on selection of species with known impacts. We aim to further develop quantitative invasive species risk assessment for bird imports and extend the tool to explicitly address disease threats. LOCATION: United States of America. METHODS: We use a two-step approach for rapid risk assessment based on the expected biological risks due to both the environmental and health impact of a potentially invasive wildlife species in trade. We assess establishment probability based on a model informed by historical observations and then construct a model of emerging infectious disease threat based on economic and ecological characteristics of the exporting country. RESULTS: We illustrate how our rapid assessment tool can be used to identify high-priority species for regulation based on a combination of the threat they pose for becoming established and vectoring emerging infectious diseases. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Our approach can be executed for a species in a matter of days and is nested in an economic decision-making framework for determining whether the biological risk is justified by trade benefits.

Merging economics and epidemiology to improve the prediction and management of infectious disease.

Mathematical epidemiology, one of the oldest and richest areas in mathematical biology, has significantly enhanced our understanding of how pathogens emerge, evolve, and spread. Classical epidemiological models, the standard for predicting and managing the spread of infectious disease, assume that contacts between susceptible and infectious individuals depend on their relative frequency in the population. The behavioral factors that underpin contact rates are not generally addressed. There is, however, an emerging a class of models that addresses the feedbacks between infectious disease dynamics and the behavioral decisions driving host contact. Referred to as "economic epidemiology" or "epidemiological economics," the approach explores the determinants of decisions about the number and type of contacts made by individuals, using insights and methods from economics. We show how the approach has the potential both to improve predictions of the course of infectious disease, and to support development of novel approaches to infectious disease management.

Sediment-adsorbed total mercury flux through Yolo Bypass, the primary floodway and wetland in the Sacramento Valley, California.

The fate and transport of mercury are of critical concern in lowland floodplains and wetlands worldwide, especially those with a history of upstream mining that increases the mobility of both dissolved and sediment-bound Hg in watersheds. A mass budget of total mercury (THg) quantifies sources and storage for particular areas - knowledge that is required for understanding of management options in lowland floodplains. In order to assess contaminant risk in the largest flood-control bypass, prime wetland, and restoration target in the Sacramento River basin, we estimated empirical relationships between THg, suspended sediment concentration (SSC), and streamflow (Q) for each of the major inputs and outputs using data from various publicly available sources. These relationships were improved by incorporating statistical representations of the dynamics of seasonal and intra-flood exhaustion (hysteresis) of sediment and mercury. Using continuous records of Q to estimate SSC suspended sediment flux and SSC to estimate THg flux, we computed the net transfer of sediment-adsorbed mercury through the Yolo Bypass over a decade, 1993-2003. Flood control weirs spilling Sacramento River floodwaters into the bypass deliver ~75% of the water and ~50% of the river's suspended sediment load, while one Coast Range tributary of the bypass, Cache Creek, contributes twice the THg load of the mainstem Sacramento. Although estimated sediment flux entering Yolo Bypass is balanced by efflux to the Sacramento/San Francisco Bay-Delta, there is much evidence of deposition and remobilization of sediment in Yolo Bypass during flooding. These factors point to the importance of the bypass as sedimentary reservoir and as an evolving substrate for biogeochemical processing of heavy metals. The estimates of mercury flux suggest net deposition of ~500 kg in the 24,000 ha floodway over a decade, dominated by two large floods, representing a storage reservoir for this important contaminant.

Adaptive human behavior in epidemiological models.

The science and management of infectious disease are entering a new stage. Increasingly public policy to manage epidemics focuses on motivating people, through social distancing policies, to alter their behavior to reduce contacts and reduce public disease risk. Person-to-person contacts drive human disease dynamics. People value such contacts and are willing to accept some disease risk to gain contact-related benefits. The cost-benefit trade-offs that shape contact behavior, and hence the course of epidemics, are often only implicitly incorporated in epidemiological models. This approach creates difficulty in parsing out the effects of adaptive behavior. We use an epidemiological-economic model of disease dynamics to explicitly model the trade-offs that drive person-to-person contact decisions. Results indicate that including adaptive human behavior significantly changes the predicted course of epidemics and that this inclusion has implications for parameter estimation and interpretation and for the development of social distancing policies. Acknowledging adaptive behavior requires a shift in thinking about epidemiological processes and parameters.