A single-point modeling approach for the intercomparison and evaluation of ozone dry deposition across chemical transport models (Activity 2 of AQMEII4).

A primary sink of air pollutants and their precursors is dry deposition. Dry deposition estimates differ across chemical transport models, yet an understanding of the model spread is incomplete. Here, we introduce Activity 2 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative Phase 4 (AQMEII4). We examine 18 dry deposition schemes from regional and global chemical transport models as well as standalone models used for impact assessments or process understanding. We configure the schemes as single-point models at eight Northern Hemisphere locations with observed ozone fluxes. Single-point models are driven by a common set of site-specific meteorological and environmental conditions. Five of eight sites have at least 3 years and up to 12 years of ozone fluxes. The interquartile range across models in multiyear mean ozone deposition velocities ranges from a factor of 1.2 to 1.9 annually across sites and tends to be highest during winter compared with summer. No model is within 50 % of observed multiyear averages across all sites and seasons, but some models perform well for some sites and seasons. For the first time, we demonstrate how contributions from depositional pathways vary across models. Models can disagree with respect to relative contributions from the pathways, even when they predict similar deposition velocities, or agree with respect to the relative contributions but predict different deposition velocities. Both stomatal and nonstomatal uptake contribute to the large model spread across sites. Our findings are the beginning of results from AQMEII4 Activity 2, which brings scientists who model air quality and dry deposition together with scientists who measure ozone fluxes to evaluate and improve dry deposition schemes in the chemical transport models used for research, planning, and regulatory purposes.

Atmospheric emissions estimation of polycyclic aromatic compounds from an oil sands tailings pond using passive air samplers.

A mapping study targeting emissions of polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs) from an oil sands tailings pond was undertaken in the Athabasca Oil sands Region (AOSR). Ten passive air samplers comprising polyurethane foam (PUF) disks were deployed around the perimeter of Suncor Tailings Pond 2/3 for a five-week period to generate time-integrated concentrations in air for PACs, which included ∑unsubstituted polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), ∑alkylated PAHs (alk-PAHs), and ∑dibenzothiophenes (DBTs) (both unsubstituted and alkylated). Concentrations in air ranged from 13 to 70, 220-970, and 30-210 ng/m3, respectively, and were elevated in samplers downwind of the tailings pond. PAC emissions to air from the pond were estimated using only the air-side concentration information by applying a simplified Gaussian dispersion model and found to be 896 µg/m2/day. ∑alk-PAHs and ∑DBTs had the highest contribution to the total PAC fluxes (79% and 16%, respectively). This flux estimate for PACs is equivalent to 460 kg on an annual basis and 35 000 kg/year when scaled to represent all tailings ponds in the region. The results generally agree with fluxes estimated from coupled high volume air sampling data and tailings pond water concentrations from the same field study but which are complicated due to uncertainties associated with the use of pure water Henry's Law values for tailings pond water as well as the potential for surface oily films on the tailings ponds to impact water-air exchange of PACs. Overall, these findings support the use of relatively simple and electricity-free PUF disk samplers for mapping and estimating emissions from area sources such as tailings ponds, using only air-side concentration information.

Fugitive Emissions of Volatile Organic Compounds from a Tailings Pond in the Oil Sands Region of Alberta.

Tailings ponds in the oil sands (OS) region in Alberta, Canada, have been associated with fugitive emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and other pollutants to the atmosphere. However, the contribution of tailings ponds to the total fugitive emissions of VOCs from OS operations remains uncertain. To address this knowledge gap, a field study was conducted in the summer of 2017 at Suncor's Pond 2/3 to estimate emissions of a suite of pollutants including 68 VOCs using a combination of micrometeorological methods and measurements from a flux tower. The results indicate that in 2017, Pond 2/3 was an emission source of 3322 ± 727 tons of VOCs including alkanes, aromatics, and oxygenated and sulfur-containing organics. While the total VOC emissions were approximately a factor of 2 higher than those reported by Suncor, the individual VOC species emissions varied by up to a factor of 12. A chemical mass balance (CMB) receptor model was used to estimate the contribution of the tailings pond to VOC pollution events in a nearby First Nations and Metis community in Fort McKay. CMB results indicate that Suncor Pond 2/3 contributed up to 57% to the total mass of VOCs measured at Fort McKay, reinforcing the importance of accurate VOC emission estimation methods for tailings ponds.

Fugitive emissions of polycyclic aromatic compounds from an oil sands tailings pond based on fugacity and inverse dispersion flux calculations.

Alberta's oil sands tailings ponds are suspected to be a source of fugitive emissions of polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs) to the atmosphere. Here we report, for the first time, fluxes of 6 parent and 21 alkylated PACs based on the measured co-located air and water concentrations using a two-film fugacity-based model (FUG), an inverse dispersion model (DISP) and a simple box model (BOX). Air samples were collected at the Suncor Tailings Pond 2/3 using a high volume air sampler from the "pond" and towards the pond ("non-pond") directions separately. Mean ∑27PACs in air from the "pond" direction was greater than the "non-pond" direction by a factor of 17. Water-air fugacity ratio of 20 PACs quantifiable in water indicated net volatilization from water. Dispersion and box model results also indicated upward fluxes of 22 PACs. Correlation between the estimated flux results of BOX and DISP model was statistically significant (r = 0.99 and p < 0.05), and correlation between FUG and DISP results ranged from 0.54 to 0.85. In this first-ever assessment of PAC fluxes from tailings pond, the three models confirmed volatilization fluxes of PACs indicating Suncor Tailings Pond 2/3 is a source of PAC emissions to the atmosphere. This study addressed a key data gap identified in the Joint Oil Sands Monitoring Emissions Inventory Compilation Report (Government of Alberta and Canada, 2016) which is the lack of consistent real-world tailings pond fugitive emission monitoring of organic chemicals. Our findings highlight the need for measurements from other tailings ponds to determine their overall contribution in releasing PACs to the atmosphere. This paper presents a practical method for estimating PAC emissions from other tailings ponds, which can provide a better understanding of these fugitive emissions, and thereby help to improve the overall characterization of emissions in the oil sands region.

Improving Insights on Air Pollutant Mixtures and Their Origins by Enhancing Local Monitoring in an Area of Intensive Resource Development.

An "event-based" approach to characterize complex air pollutant mixtures was applied in the Oil Sands region of northern Alberta, Canada. This approach was developed to better-inform source characterization and attribution of the air pollution in the Indigenous community of Fort McKay, within the context of the lived experience of residents. Principal component analysis was used to identify the characteristics of primary pollutant mixtures, which were related to hydrocarbon emissions, fossil fuel combustion, dust, and oxidized and reduced sulfur compounds. Concentration distributions of indicator compounds were used to isolate sustained air pollution "events". Diesel-powered vehicles operating in the mines were found to be an important source during NOx events. Industry-specific volatile organic compound (VOC) profiles were used in a chemical mass balance model for source apportionment, which revealed that nearby oil sands operations contribute to 86% of the total mass of nine VOC species (2-methylpentane, hexane, heptane, octane, benzene, toluene, m,p-xylene, o-xylene, and ethylbenzene) during VOC events. Analyses of the frequency distribution of air pollution events indicate that Fort McKay is regularly impacted by multiple mixtures simultaneously, underscoring the limitations of an exceedance-based approach relying on a small number of air quality standards as the only tool to assess risk.

Direct detection of atmospheric atomic bromine leading to mercury and ozone depletion.

Bromine atoms play a central role in atmospheric reactive halogen chemistry, depleting ozone and elemental mercury, thereby enhancing deposition of toxic mercury, particularly in the Arctic near-surface troposphere. However, direct bromine atom measurements have been missing to date, due to the lack of analytical capability with sufficient sensitivity for ambient measurements. Here we present direct atmospheric bromine atom measurements, conducted in the springtime Arctic. Measured bromine atom levels reached 14 parts per trillion (ppt, pmol mol-1; 4.2 × 108 atoms per cm-3) and were up to 3-10 times higher than estimates using previous indirect measurements not considering the critical role of molecular bromine. Observed ozone and elemental mercury depletion rates are quantitatively explained by the measured bromine atoms, providing field validation of highly uncertain mercury chemistry. Following complete ozone depletion, elevated bromine concentrations are sustained by photochemical snowpack emissions of molecular bromine and nitrogen oxides, resulting in continued atmospheric mercury depletion. This study provides a breakthrough in quantitatively constraining bromine chemistry in the polar atmosphere, where this chemistry connects the rapidly changing surface to pollutant fate.

Measured Canadian oil sands CO2 emissions are higher than estimates made using internationally recommended methods.

The oil and gas (O&G) sector represents a large source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. However, estimates of O&G emissions rely upon bottom-up approaches, and are rarely evaluated through atmospheric measurements. Here, we use aircraft measurements over the Canadian oil sands (OS) to derive the first top-down, measurement-based determination of the their annual CO2 emissions and intensities. The results indicate that CO2 emission intensities for OS facilities are 13-123% larger than those estimated using publically available data. This leads to 64% higher annual GHG emissions from surface mining operations, and 30% higher overall OS GHG emissions (17 Mt) compared to that reported by industry, despite emissions reporting which uses the most up to date and recommended bottom-up approaches. Given the similarity in bottom-up reporting methods across the entire O&G sector, these results suggest that O&G CO2 emissions inventory data may be more uncertain than previously considered.

Evaluation and Intercomparison of Five North American Dry Deposition Algorithms at a Mixed Forest Site.

To quantify differences between dry deposition algorithms commonly used in North America, five models were selected to calculate dry deposition velocity (V d) for O3 and SO2 over a temperate mixed forest in southern Ontario, Canada, where a 5-year flux database had previously been developed. The models performed better in summer than in winter with correlation coefficients for hourly V d between models and measurements being approximately 0.6 and 0.3, respectively. Differences in mean V d values between models were on the order of a factor of 2 in both summer and winter. All models produced lower V d values than the measurements of O3 in summer and SO2 in summer and winter, although the measured V d may be biased. There was not a consistent tendency in the models to overpredict or underpredict for O3 in winter. Several models produced magnitudes of the diel variation of V d (O3) comparable to the measurements, while all models produced slightly smaller diel variations than the measurements of V d (SO2) in summer. A few models produced larger diel variations than the measurements of V d for O3 and SO2 in winter. Model differences were mainly due to different surface resistance parameterizations for stomatal and nonstomatal uptake pathways, while differences in aerodynamic and quasi-laminar resistances played only a minor role. It is recommended to use ensemble modeling results for ecosystem impact assessment studies, which provides mean values of all the used models and thus can avoid too much overestimations or underestimations.

Quantifying the Primary Emissions and Photochemical Formation of Isocyanic Acid Downwind of Oil Sands Operations.

Isocyanic acid (HNCO) is a known toxic species and yet the relative importance of primary and secondary sources to regional HNCO and population exposure remains unclear. Off-road diesel fuel combustion has previously been suggested to be an important regional source of HNCO, which implies that major industrial facilities such as the oil sands (OS), which consume large quantities of diesel fuel, can be sources of HNCO. The OS emissions of nontraditional toxic species such as HNCO have not been assessed. Here, airborne measurements of HNCO were used to estimate primary and secondary HNCO for the oil sands. Approximately 6.2 ± 1.1 kg hr-1 was emitted from off-road diesel activities within oil sands facilities, and an additional 116-186 kg hr-1 formed from the photochemical oxidation of diesel exhaust. Together, the primary and secondary HNCO from OS operations represent a significant anthropogenic HNCO source in Canada. The secondary HNCO downwind of the OS was enhanced by up to a factor of 20 relative to its primary emission, an enhancement factor significantly greater than previously estimated from laboratory studies. Incorporating HNCO emissions and formation into a regional model demonstrated that the HNCO levels in Fort McMurray (∼10-70 km downwind of the OS) are controlled by OS emissions; > 50% of the monthly mean HNCO arose from the OS. While the mean HNCO levels in Fort McMurray are predicted to be below the 1000 pptv level associated with potential negative health impacts, (∼25 pptv in August-September), an order of magnitude increase in concentration is predicted (250-600 pptv) when the town is directly impacted by OS plumes. The results here highlight the importance of obtaining at-source HNCO emission factors and advancing the understanding of secondary HNCO formation mechanisms, to assess and improve HNCO population exposure predictions.

Differences between measured and reported volatile organic compound emissions from oil sands facilities in Alberta, Canada.

Large-scale oil production from oil sands deposits in Alberta, Canada has raised concerns about environmental impacts, such as the magnitude of air pollution emissions. This paper reports compound emission rates (E) for 69-89 nonbiogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) for each of four surface mining facilities, determined with a top-down approach using aircraft measurements in the summer of 2013. The aggregate emission rate (aE) of the nonbiogenic VOCs ranged from 50 ± 14 to 70 ± 22 t/d depending on the facility. In comparison, equivalent VOC emission rates reported to the Canadian National Pollutant Release Inventory (NPRI) using accepted estimation methods were lower than the aE values by factors of 2.0 ± 0.6, 3.1 ± 1.1, 4.5 ± 1.5, and 4.1 ± 1.6 for the four facilities, indicating underestimation in the reported VOC emissions. For 11 of the combined 93 VOC species reported by all four facilities, the reported emission rate and E were similar; but for the other 82 species, the reported emission rate was lower than E The median ratio of E to that reported for all species by a facility ranged from 4.5 to 375 depending on the facility. Moreover, between 9 and 53 VOCs, for which there are existing reporting requirements to the NPRI, were not included in the facility emission reports. The comparisons between the emission reports and measurement-based emission rates indicate that improvements to VOC emission estimation methods would enhance the accuracy and completeness of emission estimates and their applicability to environmental impact assessments of oil sands developments.

Leaf chlorophyll content as a proxy for leaf photosynthetic capacity.

Improving the accuracy of estimates of forest carbon exchange is a central priority for understanding ecosystem response to increased atmospheric CO2 levels and improving carbon cycle modelling. However, the spatially continuous parameterization of photosynthetic capacity (Vcmax) at global scales and appropriate temporal intervals within terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) remains unresolved. This research investigates the use of biochemical parameters for modelling leaf photosynthetic capacity within a deciduous forest. Particular attention is given to the impacts of seasonality on both leaf biophysical variables and physiological processes, and their interdependent relationships. Four deciduous tree species were sampled across three growing seasons (2013-2015), approximately every 10 days for leaf chlorophyll content (ChlLeaf ) and canopy structure. Leaf nitrogen (NArea ) was also measured during 2014. Leaf photosynthesis was measured during 2014-2015 using a Li-6400 gas-exchange system, with A-Ci curves to model Vcmax. Results showed that seasonality and variations between species resulted in weak relationships between Vcmax normalized to 25°C (Vcmax25) and NArea (R2  = 0.62, P < 0.001), whereas ChlLeaf demonstrated a much stronger correlation with Vcmax25 (R2  = 0.78, P < 0.001). The relationship between ChlLeaf and NArea was also weak (R2  = 0.47, P < 0.001), possibly due to the dynamic partitioning of nitrogen, between and within photosynthetic and nonphotosynthetic fractions. The spatial and temporal variability of Vcmax25 was mapped using Landsat TM/ETM satellite data across the forest site, using physical models to derive ChlLeaf . TBMs largely treat photosynthetic parameters as either fixed constants or varying according to leaf nitrogen content. This research challenges assumptions that simple NArea -Vcmax25 relationships can reliably be used to constrain photosynthetic capacity in TBMs, even within the same plant functional type. It is suggested that ChlLeaf provides a more accurate, direct proxy for Vcmax25 and is also more easily retrievable from satellite data. These results have important implications for carbon modelling within deciduous ecosystems.

Oil sands operations as a large source of secondary organic aerosols.

Worldwide heavy oil and bitumen deposits amount to 9 trillion barrels of oil distributed in over 280 basins around the world, with Canada home to oil sands deposits of 1.7 trillion barrels. The global development of this resource and the increase in oil production from oil sands has caused environmental concerns over the presence of toxic compounds in nearby ecosystems and acid deposition. The contribution of oil sands exploration to secondary organic aerosol formation, an important component of atmospheric particulate matter that affects air quality and climate, remains poorly understood. Here we use data from airborne measurements over the Canadian oil sands, laboratory experiments and a box-model study to provide a quantitative assessment of the magnitude of secondary organic aerosol production from oil sands emissions. We find that the evaporation and atmospheric oxidation of low-volatility organic vapours from the mined oil sands material is directly responsible for the majority of the observed secondary organic aerosol mass. The resultant production rates of 45-84 tonnes per day make the oil sands one of the largest sources of anthropogenic secondary organic aerosols in North America. Heavy oil and bitumen account for over ten per cent of global oil production today, and this figure continues to grow. Our findings suggest that the production of the more viscous crude oils could be a large source of secondary organic aerosols in many production and refining regions worldwide, and that such production should be considered when assessing the environmental impacts of current and planned bitumen and heavy oil extraction projects globally.

Dry deposition of O3 and SO2 estimated from gradient measurements above a temperate mixed forest.

Vertical profiles of O3 and SO2 concentrations were monitored at the Borden Forest site in southern Ontario, Canada from May 2008 to April 2013. A modified gradient method (MGM) was applied to estimate O3 and SO2 dry deposition fluxes using concentration gradients between a level above and a level below the canopy top. The calculated five-year mean (median) dry deposition velocity (Vd) were 0.35 (0.27) and 0.59 (0.54) cm s(-1), respectively, for O3 and SO2. Vd(O3) exhibited large seasonal variations with the highest monthly mean of 0.68 cm s(-1) in August and the lowest of 0.09 cm s(-1) in February. In contrast, seasonal variations of Vd(SO2) were smaller with monthly means ranging from 0.48 (May) to 0.81 cm s(-1) (December). The different seasonal variations between O3 and SO2 were caused by the enhanced SO2 uptake by snow surfaces in winter. Diurnal variations showed a peak value of Vd in early morning in summer months for both O3 and SO2. Canopy wetness increased the non-stomatal uptake of O3 while decreasing the stomatal uptake. This also applied to SO2, but additional factors such as surface acidity also played an important role on the overall uptake.

Convective forcing of mercury and ozone in the Arctic boundary layer induced by leads in sea ice.

The ongoing regime shift of Arctic sea ice from perennial to seasonal ice is associated with more dynamic patterns of opening and closing sea-ice leads (large transient channels of open water in the ice), which may affect atmospheric and biogeochemical cycles in the Arctic. Mercury and ozone are rapidly removed from the atmospheric boundary layer during depletion events in the Arctic, caused by destruction of ozone along with oxidation of gaseous elemental mercury (Hg(0)) to oxidized mercury (Hg(II)) in the atmosphere and its subsequent deposition to snow and ice. Ozone depletion events can change the oxidative capacity of the air by affecting atmospheric hydroxyl radical chemistry, whereas atmospheric mercury depletion events can increase the deposition of mercury to the Arctic, some of which can enter ecosystems during snowmelt. Here we present near-surface measurements of atmospheric mercury and ozone from two Arctic field campaigns near Barrow, Alaska. We find that coastal depletion events are directly linked to sea-ice dynamics. A consolidated ice cover facilitates the depletion of Hg(0) and ozone, but these immediately recover to near-background concentrations in the upwind presence of open sea-ice leads. We attribute the rapid recoveries of Hg(0) and ozone to lead-initiated shallow convection in the stable Arctic boundary layer, which mixes Hg(0) and ozone from undepleted air masses aloft. This convective forcing provides additional Hg(0) to the surface layer at a time of active depletion chemistry, where it is subject to renewed oxidation. Future work will need to establish the degree to which large-scale changes in sea-ice dynamics across the Arctic alter ozone chemistry and mercury deposition in fragile Arctic ecosystems.

Role of nitrite in the photochemical formation of radicals in the snow.

Photochemical reactions in snow can have an important impact on the composition of the atmosphere over snow-covered areas as well as on the composition of the snow itself. One of the major photochemical processes is the photolysis of nitrate leading to the formation of volatile nitrogen compounds. We report nitrite concentrations determined together with nitrate and hydrogen peroxide in surface snow collected at the coastal site of Barrow, Alaska. The results demonstrate that nitrite likely plays a significant role as a precursor for reactive hydroxyl radicals as well as volatile nitrogen oxides in the snow. Pollution events leading to high concentrations of nitrous acid in the atmosphere contributed to an observed increase in nitrite in the surface snow layer during nighttime. Observed daytime nitrite concentrations are much higher than values predicted from steady-state concentrations based on photolysis of nitrate and nitrite indicating that we do not fully understand the production of nitrite and nitrous acid in snow. The discrepancy between observed and expected nitrite concentrations is probably due to a combination of factors, including an incomplete understanding of the reactive environment and chemical processes in snow, and a lack of consideration of the vertical structure of snow.

Measurements of gas phase acids in diesel exhaust: a relevant source of HNCO?

Gas-phase acids in light duty diesel (LDD) vehicle exhaust were measured using chemical ionization mass spectrometry (CIMS). Fuel based emission factors (EF) and NOx ratios for these species were determined under differing steady state engine operating conditions. The derived HONO and HNO3 EFs agree well with literature values, with HONO being the single most important acidic emission. Of particular importance is the quantification of the EF for the toxic species, isocyanic acid (HNCO). The emission factors for HNCO ranged from 0.69 to 3.96 mg kgfuel(-1), and were significantly higher than previous biomass burning emission estimates. Further ambient urban measurements of HNCO demonstrated a clear relationship with the known traffic markers of benzene and toluene, demonstrating for the first time that urban commuter traffic is a source of HNCO. Estimates based upon the HNCO-benzene relationship indicate that upward of 23 tonnes of HNCO are released annually from commuter traffic in the Greater Toronto Area, far exceeding the amount possible from LDD alone. Nationally, 250 to 770 tonnes of HNCO may be emitted annually from on-road vehicles, likely representing the dominant source of exposure in urban areas, and with emissions comparable to that of biomass burning.

Comparison of micrometeorological and two-film estimates of air-water gas exchange for alpha-hexachlorocyclohexane in the Canadian archipelago.

The air-sea gas exchange of alpha-hexachlorocyclohexane (α-HCH) in the Canadian Arctic was estimated using a micrometeorological approach and the commonly used Whitman two-film model. Concurrent shipboard measurements of α-HCH in air at two heights (1 and 15 m) and in surface seawater were conducted during the Circumpolar Flaw Lead study in 2008. Sampling was carried out during eight events in the early summer time when open water was encountered. The micrometeorological technique employed the vertical gradient in air concentration and the wind speed to estimate the flux; results were corrected for atmospheric stability using the Monin-Obukhov stability parameter. The Whitman two-film model used the concentrations of α-HCH in surface seawater, in bulk air at 1 and 15 m above the surface, and the Henry's law constant adjusted for temperature and salinity to derive the flux. Both approaches showed that the overall net flux of α-HCH was from water to air. Mean fluxes calculated using the micrometeorological technique ranged from -3.5 to 18 ng m(-2) day(-1) (mean 7.4), compared to 3.5 to 14 ng m(-2) day(-1) (mean 7.5) using the Whitman two-film model. Flux estimates for individual events agreed in direction and within a factor of two in magnitude for six of eight events. For two events, fluxes estimated by micrometeorology were zero or negative, while fluxes estimated with the two-film model were positive, and the reasons for these discrepancies are unclear. Improvements are needed to shorten air sampling times to ensure that stationarity of meteorological conditions is not compromised over the measurement periods. The micrometeorological technique could be particularly useful to estimate fluxes of organic chemicals over water in situations where no water samples are available.

Are emissions of black carbon from gasoline vehicles underestimated? Insights from near and on-road measurements.

Measurements of black carbon (BC) with a high-sensitivity laser-induced incandescence (HS-LII) instrument and a single particle soot photometer (SP2) were conducted upwind, downwind, and while driving on a highway dominated by gasoline vehicles. The results are used with concurrent CO(2) measurements to derive fuel-based BC emission factors for real-world average fleet and heavy-duty diesel vehicles separately. The derived emission factors from both instruments are compared, and a low SP2 bias (relative to the HS-LII) is found to be caused by a BC mass mode diameter less than 75 nm, that is most prominent with the gasoline fleet but is not present in the heavy-duty diesel vehicle exhaust on the highway. Results from both the LII and the SP2 demonstrate that the BC emission factors from gasoline vehicles are at least a factor of 2 higher than previous North American measurements, and a factor of 9 higher than currently used emission inventories in Canada, derived with the MOBILE 6.2C model. Conversely, the measured BC emission factor for heavy-duty diesel vehicles is in reasonable agreement with previous measurements. The results suggest that greater attention must be paid to black carbon from gasoline engines to obtain a full understanding of the impact of black carbon on air quality and climate and to devise appropriate mitigation strategies.

Observed increase in local cooling effect of deforestation at higher latitudes.

Deforestation in mid- to high latitudes is hypothesized to have the potential to cool the Earth's surface by altering biophysical processes. In climate models of continental-scale land clearing, the cooling is triggered by increases in surface albedo and is reinforced by a land albedo-sea ice feedback. This feedback is crucial in the model predictions; without it other biophysical processes may overwhelm the albedo effect to generate warming instead. Ongoing land-use activities, such as land management for climate mitigation, are occurring at local scales (hectares) presumably too small to generate the feedback, and it is not known whether the intrinsic biophysical mechanism on its own can change the surface temperature in a consistent manner. Nor has the effect of deforestation on climate been demonstrated over large areas from direct observations. Here we show that surface air temperature is lower in open land than in nearby forested land. The effect is 0.85 ± 0.44 K (mean ± one standard deviation) northwards of 45° N and 0.21 ± 0.53 K southwards. Below 35° N there is weak evidence that deforestation leads to warming. Results are based on comparisons of temperature at forested eddy covariance towers in the USA and Canada and, as a proxy for small areas of cleared land, nearby surface weather stations. Night-time temperature changes unrelated to changes in surface albedo are an important contributor to the overall cooling effect. The observed latitudinal dependence is consistent with theoretical expectation of changes in energy loss from convection and radiation across latitudes in both the daytime and night-time phase of the diurnal cycle, the latter of which remains uncertain in climate models.