RESUMEN
A new dynamical core, known as the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) and developed at both NASA and NOAA, is used in NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and in limited-area models for regional weather and air quality applications. NOAA has also upgraded the operational FV3GFS to version 16 (GFSv16), which includes a number of significant developmental advances to the model configuration, data assimilation, and underlying model physics, particularly for atmospheric composition to weather feedback. Concurrent with the GFSv16 upgrade, we couple the GFSv16 with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to form an advanced version of the National Air Quality Forecasting Capability (NAQFC) that will continue to protect human and ecosystem health in the US. Here we describe the development of the FV3GFSv16 coupling with a "state-of-the-science" CMAQ model version 5.3.1. The GFS-CMAQ coupling is made possible by the seminal version of the NOAA-EPA Atmosphere-Chemistry Coupler (NACC), which became a major piece of the next operational NAQFC system (i.e., NACC-CMAQ) on 20 July 2021. NACC-CMAQ has a number of scientific advancements that include satellite-based data acquisition technology to improve land cover and soil characteristics and inline wildfire smoke and dust predictions that are vital to predictions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations during hazardous events affecting society, ecosystems, and human health. The GFS-driven NACC-CMAQ model has significantly different meteorological and chemical predictions compared to the previous operational NAQFC, where evaluation of NACC-CMAQ shows generally improved near-surface ozone and PM2.5 predictions and diurnal patterns, both of which are extended to a 72 h (3 d) forecast with this system.
RESUMEN
This paper continues an initiative conducted by the International Society for Disease Surveillance with funding from the Defense Threat Reduction Agency to connect near-term analytical needs of public health practice with technical expertise from the global research community. The goal is to enhance investigation capabilities of day-to-day population health monitors. A prior paper described the formation of consultancies for requirements analysis and dialogue regarding costs and benefits of sustainable analytic tools. Each funded consultancy targets a use case of near-term concern to practitioners. The consultancy featured here focused on improving predictions of asthma exacerbation risk in demographic and geographic subdivisions of the city of Boston, Massachusetts, USA based on the combination of known risk factors for which evidence is routinely available. A cross-disciplinary group of 28 stakeholders attended the consultancy on March 30-31, 2016 at the Boston Public Health Commission. Known asthma exacerbation risk factors are upper respiratory virus transmission, particularly in school-age children, harsh or extreme weather conditions, and poor air quality. Meteorological subject matter experts described availability and usage of data sources representing these risk factors. Modelers presented multiple analytic approaches including mechanistic models, machine learning approaches, simulation techniques, and hybrids. Health department staff and local partners discussed surveillance operations, constraints, and operational system requirements. Attendees valued the direct exchange of information among public health practitioners, system designers, and modelers. Discussion finalized design of an 8-year de-identified dataset of Boston ED patient records for modeling partners who sign a standard data use agreement.
