Analysis of the burden of disease attributable to environmental risk factors in Mexico in the 1990-2021 period. Identification of advances, lags and emergencies.

BACKGROUND: It is estimated that environmental risk factors (ERF) were responsible for nine million deaths worldwide in 2019. OBJECTIVE: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease study, indicators of health loss associated with exposure to ERF in Mexico were analyzed. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Absolute numbers and population percentages of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) lost attributed to selected ERFs were analyzed at the national and state level and by sex, as well as age-standardized trends from 1990 to 2021. RESULTS: In 2021, ambient particulate matter pollution showed the highest mortality and DALYs lost attributed to selected ERFs (42.2 and 38.1% respectively), followed by lead exposure (20.6 and 13.4%) and low temperature (19.8 and 12.3%). Both indicators have decreased for all selected ERAs by different magnitudes between 1991 and 2021, except for high temperature. CONCLUSIONS: Despite decreases in the last 32 years, outdoor environment particulate matter showed the highest mortality and DALYs lost, followed by lead exposure. It is essential to strengthen air quality and lead exposure policies in Mexico.

ANTECEDENTES: Se estima que los factores de riesgo ambientales (FRA) fueron responsables en 2019 de nueve millones de muertes en el mundo. OBJETIVO: A partir de datos del estudio Global Burden of Disease, se analizaron indicadores de pérdida de salud asociada a la exposición a FRA en México. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Se analizaron números absolutos y porcentajes poblacionales de muertes y años de vida saludable (AVISA) perdidos según sexo atribuidos a FRA seleccionados en los ámbitos nacional y estatal, así como las tendencias estandarizadas por edad de 1990 a 2021. RESULTADOS: En 2021, la contaminación por material particulado en ambiente exterior mostró la mayor mortalidad y AVISA perdidos por los FRA seleccionados (42.2 y 38.1 %, respectivamente), seguida de la exposición a plomo (20.6 y 13.4 %) y temperatura baja (19.8 y 12.3 %). Ambos indicadores han disminuido en todos los FRA seleccionados, en magnitudes diferentes entre 1991 y 2021, excepto la temperatura alta. CONCLUSIONES: A pesar de las disminuciones en los últimos 32 años, el material particulado en ambiente exterior mostró la mayor mortalidad y AVISA perdidos, seguido de la exposición a plomo. Es fundamental fortalecer las políticas de calidad del aire y exposición a plomo en México.

Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-years for 32 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2015: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study.

IMPORTANCE: Cancer is the second leading cause of death worldwide. Current estimates on the burden of cancer are needed for cancer control planning. OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 32 cancers in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. EVIDENCE REVIEW: Cancer mortality was estimated using vital registration system data, cancer registry incidence data (transformed to mortality estimates using separately estimated mortality to incidence [MI] ratios), and verbal autopsy data. Cancer incidence was calculated by dividing mortality estimates through the modeled MI ratios. To calculate cancer prevalence, MI ratios were used to model survival. To calculate YLDs, prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights. The YLLs were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the reference life expectancy. DALYs were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Countries were categorized by SDI quintiles to summarize results. FINDINGS: In 2015, there were 17.5 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.7 million deaths. Between 2005 and 2015, cancer cases increased by 33%, with population aging contributing 16%, population growth 13%, and changes in age-specific rates contributing 4%. For men, the most common cancer globally was prostate cancer (1.6 million cases). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer was the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs in men (1.2 million deaths and 25.9 million DALYs). For women, the most common cancer was breast cancer (2.4 million cases). Breast cancer was also the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs for women (523 000 deaths and 15.1 million DALYs). Overall, cancer caused 208.3 million DALYs worldwide in 2015 for both sexes combined. Between 2005 and 2015, age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 174 of 195 countries or territories. Age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) for all cancers combined decreased within that timeframe in 140 of 195 countries or territories. Countries with an increase in the ASDR due to all cancers were largely located on the African continent. Of all cancers, deaths between 2005 and 2015 decreased significantly for Hodgkin lymphoma (-6.1% [95% uncertainty interval (UI), -10.6% to -1.3%]). The number of deaths also decreased for esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, and chronic myeloid leukemia, although these results were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: As part of the epidemiological transition, cancer incidence is expected to increase in the future, further straining limited health care resources. Appropriate allocation of resources for cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and curative and palliative care requires detailed knowledge of the local burden of cancer. The GBD 2015 study results demonstrate that progress is possible in the war against cancer. However, the major findings also highlight an unmet need for cancer prevention efforts, including tobacco control, vaccination, and the promotion of physical activity and a healthy diet.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to injecting drug use as a risk factor for HIV, hepatitis C, and hepatitis B: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: Previous estimates of the burden of HIV, hepatitis B virus (HBV), and hepatitis C virus (HCV) among people who inject drugs have not included estimates of the burden attributable to the consequences of past injecting. We aimed to provide these estimates as part of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2013. METHODS: We modelled the burden of HBV and HCV (including cirrhosis and liver cancer burden) and HIV at the country, regional, and global level. We extracted United Nations data on the proportion of notified HIV cases by transmission route, and estimated the contribution of injecting drug use (IDU) to HBV and HCV disease burden by use of a cohort method that recalibrated individuals' history of IDU, and accumulated risk of HBV and HCV due to IDU. We estimated data on current IDU from a meta-analysis of HBV and HCV incidence among injecting drug users and country-level data on the incidence of HBV and HCV between 1990 and 2013. We calculated estimates of burden of disease through years of life lost (YLL), years of life lived with disability (YLD), deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated for each metric. FINDINGS: In 2013, an estimated 10·08 million DALYs were attributable to previous exposure to HIV, HBV, and HCV via IDU, a four-times increase since 1990. In total in 2013, IDU was estimated to cause 4·0% (2·82 million DALYs, 95% UI 2·4 million to 3·8 million) of DALYs due to HIV, 1·1% (216 000, 101 000-338 000) of DALYs due to HBV, and 39·1% (7·05 million, 5·88 million to 8·15 million) of DALYs due to HCV. IDU-attributable HIV burden was highest in low-to-middle-income countries, and IDU-attributable HCV burden was highest in high-income countries. INTERPRETATION: IDU is a major contributor to the global burden of disease. Effective interventions to prevent and treat these important causes of health burden need to be scaled up. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Liver cirrhosis mortality in 187 countries between 1980 and 2010: a systematic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Liver cirrhosis is a major yet largely preventable and underappreciated cause of global health loss. Variations in cirrhosis mortality at the country level reflect differences in prevalence of risk factors such as alcohol use and hepatitis B and C infection. We estimated annual age-specific mortality from liver cirrhosis in 187 countries between 1980 and 2010. METHODS: We systematically collected vital registration and verbal autopsy data on liver cirrhosis mortality for the period 1980 to 2010. We corrected for misclassification of deaths, which included deaths attributed to improbable or nonfatal causes. We used ensemble models to estimate liver cirrhosis mortality with uncertainty by age, sex, country and year. We used out-of-sample predictive validity to select the optimal model. RESULTS: Global liver cirrhosis deaths increased from around 676,000 (95% uncertainty interval: 452,863 to 1,004,530) in 1980 to over 1 million (1,029,042; 670,216 to 1,554,530) in 2010 (about 2% of the global total). Over the same period, the age-standardized cirrhosis mortality rate decreased by 22%. This was largely driven by decreasing cirrhosis mortality rates in China, the US and countries in Western Europe. In 2010, Egypt, followed by Moldova, had the highest age-standardized cirrhosis mortality rates, 72.7 and 71.2 deaths per 100,000, respectively, while Iceland had the lowest. In Egypt, almost one-fifth (18.1%) of all deaths in males 45- to 54-years old were due to liver cirrhosis. Liver cirrhosis mortality in Mexico is the highest in Latin America. In France and Italy, liver cirrhosis mortality fell by 50% to 60%; conversely, in the United Kingdom, mortality increased by about one-third. Mortality from liver cirrhosis was also comparatively high in Central Asia countries, particularly Mongolia, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, and in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, notably Gabon. CONCLUSIONS: Liver cirrhosis is a significant cause of global health burden, with more than one million deaths in 2010. Our study identifies areas with high and/or rapidly increasing mortality where preventive measures to control and reduce liver cirrhosis risk factors should be urgently strengthened.