Application of a unified probabilistic framework to the dose-response assessment of acrolein.

BACKGROUND: In quantitative chemical risk assessment, a reference value is an estimate of an exposure to a chemical that is "likely to be without appreciable risk." Because current "deterministic" approaches do not quantitatively characterize the likelihood or severity of harm, the National Academies has recommended using reference values derived from a risk-specific dose that are treated as random variables, with probability distributions characterizing uncertainty and variability. OBJECTIVES: In order to build familiarity and address issues needed for routine and standardized derivation of probabilistic risk-specific dose distributions, a case example applying the unified probabilistic framework presented in Chiu and Slob (2015) is developed for acrolein. This case study is based on an updated systematic evidence map of literature (Keshava et al., 2020) identifying nasal lesions reported in Dorman et al. (2008) as the most appropriate endpoint and study for reference value derivation. METHODS: The probability distribution was calculated for the risk-specific dose, which in this implementation of the approach was calculated for the dose at which 1% of the human population is estimated to experience minimal lesions, and a probabilistic reference value was computed as the 5th percentile of this distribution. A deterministic reference value was also derived for comparison, and a sensitivity analysis of the probabilistic reference value was conducted investigating alternative assumptions for the point of departure type and exposure duration. RESULTS: The probabilistic reference value of 6 × 10-4 mg/m3 was slightly lower than the deterministic reference value of 8 × 10-4 mg/m3, and the risk-specific dose distribution had an uncertainty spanning a factor of 137 (95th-5th percentile ratio). Sensitivity analysis yielded slightly higher probabilistic reference values ranging between 9 × 10-4 mg/m3 and 2 × 10-3 mg/m3. CONCLUSIONS: Using a probabilistic approach for deriving a reference value allows quantitative characterization of the severity, incidence, and uncertainty of effects at a given dose. The results can be used to inform risk management decisions and improve risk communication.

Application of systematic evidence mapping to assess the impact of new research when updating health reference values: A case example using acrolein.

BACKGROUND: The environmental health community needs transparent, methodologically rigorous, and rapid approaches for updating human health risk assessments. These assessments often contain reference values for cancer and/or noncancer effects. Increasingly, the use of systematic review methods are preferred when developing these assessments. Systematic evidence maps are a type of analysis that has the potential to be very helpful in the update process, especially when combined with machine-learning software advances designed to expedite the process of conducting a review. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the applicability of evidence mapping to determine whether new evidence is likely to result in a change to an existing health reference value, using inhalation exposure to the air pollutant acrolein as a case example. METHODS: New literature published since the 2008 California Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment (OEHHA) Reference Exposure Level (REL) for acrolein was assessed. Systematic review methods were used to search the literature and screening included the use of machine-learning software. The Populations, Exposures, Comparators and Outcomes (PECO) criteria were kept broad to identify studies that characterized acute and chronic exposure and could be informative for hazard characterization. Studies that met the PECO criteria after full-text review were briefly summarized before their suitability for chronic point of departure (POD) derivation and calculation of a reference value was considered. Studies considered potentially suitable underwent a targeted evaluation to determine their suitability for use in dose-response analysis. RESULTS: Over 15,000 studies were identified from scientific databases. Both machine-learning and manual screening processes were used to identify 60 studies considered PECO-relevant after full-text review. Most of these PECO-relevant studies were short-term exposure animal studies (acute or less than 1 month of exposure) and considered less suitable for deriving a chronic reference value when compared to the subchronic study in rats used in the 2008 OEHHA assessment. Thirteen epidemiological studies were identified but had limitations in the exposure assessment that made them less suitable for dose-response compared to the subchronic rat study. Among the 13 studies, there were four controlled trial studies that have the potential to be informative for future acute reference value derivation. Thus, the 2008 subchronic rat study used by OEHHA appears to still be the most appropriate study for chronic reference value derivation. In addition, advances in dosimetric modeling for gases, including new evidence pertinent to acrolein, could be considered when updating existing acrolein toxicity values. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence mapping is a very useful tool to assess the need for updating an assessment based on understanding the potential impact of new studies on revising an existing health reference value. In this case example, the focus was to identify studies suitable for chronic exposure dose-response analysis, while also identifying studies that may be important to consider for acute exposure scenarios, hazard identification, or for future research. This allows the evidence map to be a useful resource for a range of decision-making contexts. Specialized systematic review software increased the efficiency of the process in terms of human resources and time to conduct the analysis.

The evaluation of inhalation studies for exposure quality: A case study with formaldehyde.

The inherent complexity of generating and monitoring a test article in an inhalation chamber can make inhalation toxicity testing challenging. Poor study design, human error, and electrical and mechanical problems can adversely affect an inhalation exposure and undermine a study's results. We have developed a process for evaluating seven key elements of exposure quality in inhalation chamber studies: 1) test article characterization, 2) generation method, 3) chamber sampling and analytical method, 4) chamber concentrations, 5) particle size characteristics, 6) chamber type, and 7) controls. For each study evaluated, exposure deficiencies are documented, and a study is given an overall rating (Robust, Adequate, or Poor) for the quality of its exposure characterization and documentation. In combination with the systematic consideration of experimental features other than exposure, these ratings can inform the utility of a study for use in hazard identification and/or exposure-response analysis. Exposure quality evaluations of 204 formaldehyde inhalation studies are presented as a case study. Of these, 34% were rated Robust because they had comprehensive exposure documentation and no serious deficiencies in the key elements of exposure quality. Another 19% of studies with minor uncertainties or limitations were rated Adequate. Conversely, 47% of the studies were rated Poor due to multiple serious exposure deficiencies. This formaldehyde case study illustrates the need to carefully consider the exposure quality of inhalation toxicity studies when their results are used to support hazard and risk assessments.

A decision analysis framework for estimating the potential hazards for drinking water resources of chemicals used in hydraulic fracturing fluids.

Despite growing concerns over the potential for hydraulic fracturing to impact drinking water resources, there are limited data available to identify chemicals used in hydraulic fracturing fluids that may pose public health concerns. In an effort to explore these potential hazards, a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework was employed to analyze and rank selected subsets of these chemicals by integrating data on toxicity, frequency of use, and physicochemical properties that describe transport in water. Data used in this analysis were obtained from publicly available databases compiled by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as part of a larger study on the potential impacts of hydraulic fracturing on drinking water. Starting with nationwide hydraulic fracturing chemical usage data from EPA's analysis of the FracFocus Chemical Disclosure Registry 1.0, MCDAs were performed on chemicals that had either noncancer toxicity values (n=37) or cancer-specific toxicity values (n=10). The noncancer MCDA was then repeated for subsets of chemicals reported in three representative states (Texas, n=31; Pennsylvania, n=18; and North Dakota, n=20). Within each MCDA, chemicals received scores based on relative toxicity, relative frequency of use, and physicochemical properties (mobility in water, volatility, persistence). Results show a relative ranking of these chemicals based on hazard potential, and provide preliminary insight into chemicals that may be more likely than others to impact drinking water resources. Comparison of nationwide versus state-specific analyses indicates regional differences in the chemicals that may be of more concern to drinking water resources, although many chemicals were commonly used and received similar overall hazard rankings. Several chemicals highlighted by these MCDAs have been reported in groundwater near areas of hydraulic fracturing activity. This approach is intended as a preliminary analysis, and represents one possible method for integrating data to explore potential public health impacts.

Estimating the Potential Toxicity of Chemicals Associated with Hydraulic Fracturing Operations Using Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship Modeling.

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) identified 1173 chemicals associated with hydraulic fracturing fluids, flowback, or produced water, of which 1026 (87%) lack chronic oral toxicity values for human health assessments. To facilitate the ranking and prioritization of chemicals that lack toxicity values, it may be useful to employ toxicity estimates from quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models. Here we describe an approach for applying the results of a QSAR model from the TOPKAT program suite, which provides estimates of the rat chronic oral lowest-observed-adverse-effect level (LOAEL). Of the 1173 chemicals, TOPKAT was able to generate LOAEL estimates for 515 (44%). To address the uncertainty associated with these estimates, we assigned qualitative confidence scores (high, medium, or low) to each TOPKAT LOAEL estimate, and found 481 to be high-confidence. For 48 chemicals that had both a high-confidence TOPKAT LOAEL estimate and a chronic oral reference dose from EPA's Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) database, Spearman rank correlation identified 68% agreement between the two values (permutation p-value =1 × 10(-11)). These results provide support for the use of TOPKAT LOAEL estimates in identifying and prioritizing potentially hazardous chemicals. High-confidence TOPKAT LOAEL estimates were available for 389 of 1026 hydraulic fracturing-related chemicals that lack chronic oral RfVs and OSFs from EPA-identified sources, including a subset of chemicals that are frequently used in hydraulic fracturing fluids.

Overview of Chronic Oral Toxicity Values for Chemicals Present in Hydraulic Fracturing Fluids, Flowback, and Produced Waters.

Concerns have been raised about potential public health effects that may arise if hydraulic fracturing-related chemicals were to impact drinking water resources. This study presents an overview of the chronic oral toxicity values-specifically, chronic oral reference values (RfVs) for noncancer effects, and oral slope factors (OSFs) for cancer-that are available for a list of 1173 chemicals that the United States (U.S.) Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) identified as being associated with hydraulic fracturing, including 1076 chemicals used in hydraulic fracturing fluids and 134 chemicals detected in flowback or produced waters from hydraulically fractured wells. The EPA compiled RfVs and OSFs using six governmental and intergovernmental data sources. Ninety (8%) of the 1076 chemicals reported in hydraulic fracturing fluids and 83 (62%) of the 134 chemicals reported in flowback/produced water had a chronic oral RfV or OSF available from one or more of the six sources. Furthermore, of the 36 chemicals reported in hydraulic fracturing fluids in at least 10% of wells nationwide (identified from EPA's analysis of the FracFocus Chemical Disclosure Registry 1.0), 8 chemicals (22%) had an available chronic oral RfV. The lack of chronic oral RfVs and OSFs for the majority of these chemicals highlights the significant knowledge gap that exists to assess the potential human health hazards associated with hydraulic fracturing.

Air pollution toxicology--a brief review of the role of the science in shaping the current understanding of air pollution health risks.

Human and animal toxicology has had a profound impact on our historical and current understanding of air pollution health effects. Early animal toxicological studies of air pollution had distinctively military or workplace themes. With the discovery that ambient air pollution episodes led to excess illness and death, there became an emergence of toxicological studies that focused on industrial air pollution encountered by the general public. Not only did the pollutants investigated evolve from ambient mixtures to individual pollutants but also the endpoints and outcomes evaluated became more sophisticated, resulting in our present state of the science. Currently, a large toxicological database exists for the effects of particulate matter and ozone, and we provide a focused review of some of the major contributions to the biological understanding for these two "criteria" air pollutants. A limited discussion of the toxicological advancements in the scientific knowledge of two hazardous air pollutants, formaldehyde and phosgene, is also included. Moving forward, the future challenge of air pollution toxicology lies in the health assessment of complex mixtures and their interactions, given the projected impacts of climate change and altered emissions on ambient conditions. In the coming years, the toxicologist will need to be flexible and forward thinking in order to dissect the complexity of the biological system itself, as well as that of air pollution in all its varied forms.

Dosimetry of nasal uptake of water-soluble and reactive gases: a first study of interhuman variability.

Certain inhaled chemicals, such as reactive, water-soluble gases, are readily absorbed by the nasal mucosa upon inhalation and may cause damage to the nasal epithelium. Comparisons of the spatial distribution of nasal lesions in laboratory animals exposed to formaldehyde with gas uptake rates predicted by computational models reveal that lesions usually occur in regions of the susceptible epithelium where gas absorption is highest. Since the uptake patterns are influenced by air currents in the nose, interindividual variability in nasal anatomy and ventilation rates due to age, body size, and gender will affect the patterns of gas absorption in humans, potentially putting some age groups at higher risk when exposed to toxic gases. In this study, interhuman variability in the nasal dosimetry of reactive, water-soluble gases was investigated by means of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models in 5 adults and 2 children, aged 7 and 8 years old. Airflow patterns were investigated for allometrically scaled inhalation rates corresponding to resting breathing. The spatial distribution of uptake at the airway walls was predicted to be nonuniform, with most of the gas being absorbed in the anterior portion of the nasal passages. Under the conditions of these simulations, interhuman variability in dose to the whole nose (mass per time per nasal surface area) due to differences in anatomy and ventilation was predicted to be 1.6-fold among the 7 individuals studied. Children and adults displayed very similar patterns of nasal gas uptake; no significant differences were noted between the two age groups.

Use of the electrical aerosol detector as an indicator of the surface area of fine particles deposited in the lung.

Because of recent concerns about the health effects of ultrafine particles and the indication that particle toxicity is related to surface area, we have been examining techniques for measuring parameters related to the surface area of fine particles, especially in the 0.003- to 0.5-microm size range. In an earlier study, we suggested that the charge attached to particles, as measured by a prototype of the Electrical Aerosol Detector (EAD, TSI Inc., Model 3070), was related to the 1.16 power of the mobility diameter. An inspection of the pattern of particle deposition in the lung as a function of particle size suggested that the EAD measurement might be a useful indicator of the surface area of particles deposited in the lung. In this study, we calculate the particle surface area (micrometer squared) deposited in the lung per cubic centimeter of air inhaled as a function of particle size using atmospheric particle size distributions measured in Minneapolis, MN, and East St. Louis, IL. The correlations of powers of the mobility diameter, Dx, were highest for X = 1.1-1.6 for the deposited surface area and for X = 1.25 with the EAD signal. This overlap suggested a correspondence between the EAD signal and the deposited surface area. The correlation coefficients of the EAD signal and particle surface area deposited in the alveolar and tracheobronchial regions of the lung for three breathing patterns are in the range of Pearson's r = 0.91-0.95 (coefficient of determination, R2 = 0.82-0.90). These statistical relationships suggest that the EAD could serve as a useful indicator of particle surface area deposited in the lung in exposure and epidemiologic studies of the human health effects of atmospheric particles and as a measure of the potential surface area dose for the characterization of occupational environments.