Prediction of persistent chronic cough in patients with chronic cough using machine learning.

Introduction: The aim of this study was to develop and validate prediction models for risk of persistent chronic cough (PCC) in patients with chronic cough (CC). This was a retrospective cohort study. Methods: Two retrospective cohorts of patients 18-85 years of age were identified for years 2011-2016: a specialist cohort which included CC patients diagnosed by specialists, and an event cohort which comprised CC patients identified by at least three cough events. A cough event could be a cough diagnosis, dispensing of cough medication or any indication of cough in clinical notes. Model training and validation were conducted using two machine-learning approaches and 400+ features. Sensitivity analyses were also conducted. PCC was defined as a CC diagnosis or any two (specialist cohort) or three (event cohort) cough events in year 2 and again in year 3 after the index date. Results: 8581 and 52 010 patients met the eligibility criteria for the specialist and event cohorts (mean age 60.0 and 55.5 years), respectively. 38.2% and 12.4% of patients in the specialist and event cohorts, respectively, developed PCC. The utilisation-based models were mainly based on baseline healthcare utilisations associated with CC or respiratory diseases, while the diagnosis-based models incorporated traditional parameters including age, asthma, pulmonary fibrosis, obstructive pulmonary disease, gastro-oesophageal reflux, hypertension and bronchiectasis. All final models were parsimonious (five to seven predictors) and moderately accurate (area under the curve: 0.74-0.76 for utilisation-based models and 0.71 for diagnosis-based models). Conclusions: The application of our risk prediction models may be used to identify high-risk PCC patients at any stage of the clinical testing/evaluation to facilitate decision making.

Risk Factors for Persistent Chronic Cough During Consecutive Years: A Retrospective Database Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The identification of patients at high risk for diseases provides clinicians essential information to better manage such patients. Persistent chronic cough (PCC) is a condition with high clinical burden and limited knowledge of the risk factors that drive the persistent symptoms. OBJECTIVE: To understand the risk factors of PCC in patients with CC diagnosed by specialists. METHODS: In this retrospective study, adults aged 18 to 85 years diagnosed with CC by a pulmonologist, allergist, otolaryngologist, or gastroenterologist in the period 2011 to 2016 were identified. PCC was defined by another CC code or at least 2 cough events at least 8 weeks but no more than 4 months apart in each of the 2 consecutive years beginning 1 year after the original CC diagnosis. Unadjusted and adjusted risk ratios with 95% CI for patient characteristics at baseline in relationship to PCC were estimated by Poisson regression models with robust error variance. RESULTS: Of the adults with CC, 3270 (27.4%) had PCC and 5302 (44.5%) did not have CC during follow-up; 3341 (28.1%) had CC in only 1 follow-up year and were excluded from the analysis. Compared with patients without PCC, patients with PCC were noted to have significantly increased adjusted risk ratios for the following baseline features: (1) demographic characteristics (elderly, females, and less educated); (2) comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic sinusitis, bronchiectasis, pulmonary fibrosis, hypertension, depression, and cough complications); (3) medication dispensed (inhaled corticosteroids/long-acting beta-agonists, leukotriene modifiers, nasal corticosteroids, nasal short-acting muscarinic antagonists, proton pump inhibitors, antitussives with narcotics, and neuromodulators); and (4) specialist care, particularly with pulmonologists. CONCLUSIONS: Knowledge of the independent risk factors associated with PCC should aid clinicians in identifying such patients and improve their management.

The Natural History of NAFLD, a Community-Based Study at a Large Health Care Delivery System in the United States.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a global public health problem. However, the natural history of NAFLD is incomplete. This is a retrospective cohort study of patients identified with NAFLD by diagnosis codes in a large, community-based health care delivery system. The objectives were (1) to follow patients from initial NAFLD presentation through progression to cirrhosis and/or decompensated cirrhosis to liver cancer, liver transplant, and death for up to 10 years; and (2) to conduct disease progression analysis restricted to patients with NAFLD identified as having diabetes at baseline. A total of 98,164 patients with full NAFLD and 26,488 with diabetes were divided into three baseline prevalent states: (1) no cirrhosis, (2) compensated cirrhosis, and (3) decompensated cirrhosis. In baseline patients without cirrhosis, annual rates of compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, and death were 0.28%, 0.31%, and 0.63% per year, respectively. With baseline compensated cirrhosis, the annual rates of decompensation and death were 2.4% and 6.7% per year. Finally, in those with decompensated cirrhosis at baseline, the death rate was 8.0% per year. In those without cirrhosis and with cirrhosis at baseline, the rates of liver cancer and death were increased approximately 2-fold in the diabetic subpopulation compared with the full NAFLD cohort. Age and comorbidities increased with increasing disease severity. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that cirrhosis was strongly associated with death and liver cancer, and that diabetes was associated with a significant increase in the hazard of both liver cancer and death (2.56 [2.04-3.20] and 1.43 [1.35-1.52]), respectively. Conclusion: The findings of this community-based study further our understanding of the natural history of NAFLD and demonstrate that diabetes is a major factor in the progression of this disease.

Patient-Reported Burden of Chronic Cough in a Managed Care Organization.

BACKGROUND: The burden of chronic cough (CC) requires better understanding. OBJECTIVE: To determine the severity, health status, and health care resource utilization among patients with CC identified by electronic health records on 2 visits separated by ≥1 year. METHODS: Information on cough-related burden was collected through survey from patients with CC, including validated questionnaires (the cough health status Leicester Cough Questionnaire [LCQ], the cough hypersensitivity Hull Airway Reflux Questionnaire [HARQ], and the Cough Quality of Life Questionnaire [CQLQ]), CC-associated respiratory and gastrointestinal comorbidities, and treatment responses. Spearman correlation coefficients were reported to examine the associations among the LCQ, HARQ, and CQLQ. Patient demographics and patient-reported CC features were compared between males and females, and among ethnic groups using Robust Poisson regression models. RESULTS: The survey was completed by 565 patients who were 64.8 ± 12.6 years, 75.8% female, and 60.4% white. CC duration was 8.6 ± 10.5 years with an average weekly severity of 5.3 ± 2.3 (maximum 10). The LCQ score was 11.3 ± 3.9 (maximum 21). The HARQ score was 33.3 ± 13.6 (normal ≤13). The CQLQ score was 56.9 ± 17.5 (maximum 112, worse with higher scores). The Spearman rank correlations were high between the LCQ and HARQ (-0.65), the LCQ and CQLQ (-0.80), and the HARQ and CQLQ (0.69). Patients with CC-associated respiratory and gastrointestinal comorbidities generally showed similar results regarding the above questionnaires. Treatment responses were suboptimal. Women compared with men and non-whites compared with whites reported significantly worse cough severity and poorer LCQ, HARQ, and CQLQ scores. CONCLUSIONS: CC is self-reported as a burdensome condition, particularly in women and non-white minorities, which markedly affects daily living with inadequate response to treatments.