Generalising uncertainty improves accuracy and safety of deep learning analytics applied to oncology.

Uncertainty estimation is crucial for understanding the reliability of deep learning (DL) predictions, and critical for deploying DL in the clinic. Differences between training and production datasets can lead to incorrect predictions with underestimated uncertainty. To investigate this pitfall, we benchmarked one pointwise and three approximate Bayesian DL models for predicting cancer of unknown primary, using three RNA-seq datasets with 10,968 samples across 57 cancer types. Our results highlight that simple and scalable Bayesian DL significantly improves the generalisation of uncertainty estimation. Moreover, we designed a prototypical metric-the area between development and production curve (ADP), which evaluates the accuracy loss when deploying models from development to production. Using ADP, we demonstrate that Bayesian DL improves accuracy under data distributional shifts when utilising 'uncertainty thresholding'. In summary, Bayesian DL is a promising approach for generalising uncertainty, improving performance, transparency, and safety of DL models for deployment in the real world.

Automated AI labeling of optic nerve head enables insights into cross-ancestry glaucoma risk and genetic discovery in >280,000 images from UKB and CLSA.

Cupping of the optic nerve head, a highly heritable trait, is a hallmark of glaucomatous optic neuropathy. Two key parameters are vertical cup-to-disc ratio (VCDR) and vertical disc diameter (VDD). However, manual assessment often suffers from poor accuracy and is time intensive. Here, we show convolutional neural network models can accurately estimate VCDR and VDD for 282,100 images from both UK Biobank and an independent study (Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging), enabling cross-ancestry epidemiological studies and new genetic discovery for these optic nerve head parameters. Using the AI approach, we perform a systematic comparison of the distribution of VCDR and VDD and compare these with intraocular pressure and glaucoma diagnoses across various genetically determined ancestries, which provides an explanation for the high rates of normal tension glaucoma in East Asia. We then used the large number of AI gradings to conduct a more powerful genome-wide association study (GWAS) of optic nerve head parameters. Using the AI-based gradings increased estimates of heritability by ∼50% for VCDR and VDD. Our GWAS identified more than 200 loci associated with both VCDR and VDD (double the number of loci from previous studies) and uncovered dozens of biological pathways; many of the loci we discovered also confer risk for glaucoma.