Climate change and ecosystem shifts in the southwestern United States.

Climate change shifts ecosystems, altering their compositions and instigating transitions, making climate change the predominant driver of ecosystem instability. Land management agencies experience these climatic effects on ecosystems they administer yet lack applied information to inform mitigation. We address this gap, explaining ecosystem shifts by building relationships between the historical locations of 22 ecosystems (c. 2000) and abiotic data (1970-2000; bioclimate, terrain) within the southwestern United States using 'ensemble' machine learning models. These relationships identify the conditions required for establishing and maintaining southwestern ecosystems (i.e., ecosystem suitability). We projected these historical relationships to mid (2041-2060) and end-of-century (2081-2100) periods using CMIP6 generation BCC-CSM2-MR and GFDL-ESM4 climate models with SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios. This procedure reveals how ecosystems shift, as suitability typically increases in area (~ 50% (~ 40% SD)), elevation (12-15%) and northing (4-6%) by mid-century. We illustrate where and when ecosystems shift, by mapping suitability predictions temporally and within 52,565 properties (e.g., Federal, State, Tribal). All properties had ≥ 50% changes in suitability for ≥ 1 ecosystem within them, irrespective of size (≥ 16.7 km2). We integrated 9 climate models to quantify predictive uncertainty and exemplify its relevance. Agencies must manage ecosystem shifts transcending jurisdictions. Effective mitigation requires collective action heretofore rarely instituted. Our procedure supplies the climatic context to inform their decisions.

The abundance and persistence of Caprinae populations.

Stable or growing populations may go extinct when their sizes cannot withstand large swings in temporal variation and stochastic forces. Hence, the minimum abundance threshold defining when populations can persist without human intervention forms a key conservation parameter. We identify this threshold for many populations of Caprinae, typically threatened species lacking demographic data. Doing so helps triage conservation and management actions for threatened or harvested populations. Methodologically, we used population projection matrices and simulations, with starting abundance, recruitment, and adult female survival predicting future abundance, growth rate (λ), and population trend. We incorporated mean demographic rates representative of Caprinae populations and corresponding variances from desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni), as a proxy for Caprinae sharing similar life histories. We found a population's minimum abundance resulting in ≤ 0.01 chance of quasi-extinction (QE; population ≤ 5 adult females) in 10 years and ≤ 0.10 QE in 30 years as 50 adult females, or 70 were translocation (removals) pursued. Discovering the threshold required 3 demographic parameters. We show, however, that monitoring populations' relationships to this threshold requires only abundance and recruitment data. This applied approach avoids the logistical and cost hurdles in measuring female survival, making assays of population persistence more practical.

Year-round water management for desert bighorn sheep corresponds with visits by predators not bighorn sheep.

Managing water (e.g., catchments) to increase the abundance and distribution of game is popular in arid regions, especially throughout the southwest United States, where biologists often manage water year-round for desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni). Bighorn may visit water when predators (e.g., mountain lions [Puma concolor], coyotes [Canis latrans]) do not, suggesting that differences in species ecology or their surface water requirements influence visit timing. Alternatively, visits by desert bighorn sheep and predators may align. The former outcome identifies opportunities to improve water management by providing water when desert bighorn sheep visit most, which hypothetically may reduce predator presence, range expansion and predation, thereby supporting objectives to increase sheep abundances. Since advancing water management hinges on understanding the patterns of species visits, we identified when these three species and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) visited managed waters in three North American deserts (Chihuahuan, Sonoran, Mojave). We unraveled the ecological basis describing why visits occurred by associating species visits with four weather variables using multi-site, multi-species models within a Bayesian hierarchical framework (3.4 million images; 105 locations; 7/2009-12/2016). Desert bighorn sheep concentrated visits to water within 4-5 contiguous months. Mountain lions visited water essentially year-round within all deserts. Higher maximum temperature influenced visits to water, especially for desert bighorn sheep. Less long-term precipitation (prior 6-week total) raised visits for all species, and influenced mountain lion visits 3-20 times more than mule deer and 3-37 times more than sheep visits. Visits to water by prey were inconsistent predictors of visits to water by mountain lions. Our results suggest improvements to water management by aligning water provision with the patterns and ecological explanations of desert bighorn sheep visits. We exemplify a scientific approach to water management for enhancing stewardship of desert mammals, be it the southwest United States or arid regions elsewhere.

Accurate population estimation of Caprinae using camera traps and distance sampling.

With most of the world's Caprinae taxa threatened with extinction, the IUCN appeals to the development of simple and affordable sampling methods that will produce credible abundance and distribution data for helping conserve these species inhabiting remote areas. Traditional sampling approaches, like aerial sampling or mark-capture-recapture, can generate bias by failing to meet sampling assumptions, or by incurring too much cost and logistical burden for most projects to address them. Therefore, we met the IUCN's challenge by testing a sampling technique that leverages imagery from camera traps with conventional distance sampling, validating its operability in mountainous topography by comparing results to known abundances. Our project occurred within a captive facility housing a wild population of desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) in the Chihuahuan desert of New Mexico, which is censused yearly. True abundance was always within our 90% confidence bounds, and the mean abundance estimates were within 4.9 individuals (average) of the census values. By demonstrating the veracity of this straightforward and inexpensive sampling method, we provide confidence in its operability, urging its use to fill conservation voids for Caprinae and other data-deficient species inhabiting rugged or heavily vegetated terrain.

The effectiveness of surrogate taxa to conserve freshwater biodiversity.

Establishing protected areas has long been an effective conservation strategy and is often based on readily surveyed species. The potential of any freshwater taxa to be a surrogate for other aquatic groups has not been explored fully. We compiled occurrence data on 72 species of freshwater fishes, amphibians, mussels, and aquatic reptiles for the Great Plains, Wyoming (U.S.A.). We used hierarchical Bayesian multispecies mixture models and MaxEnt models to describe species' distributions and the program Zonation to identify areas of conservation priority for each aquatic group. The landscape-scale factors that best characterized aquatic species' distributions differed among groups. There was low agreement and congruence among taxa-specific conservation priorities (<20%), meaning no surrogate priority areas would include or protect the best habitats of other aquatic taxa. Common, wideranging aquatic species were included in taxa-specific priority areas, but rare freshwater species were not included. Thus, the development of conservation priorities based on a single freshwater aquatic group would not protect all species in the other aquatic groups.

AN INVERTEBRATE ECOSYSTEM ENGINEER UNDER THE UMBRELLA OF SAGE-GROUSE CONSERVATION.

Conservation practitioners often rely on areas designed to protect species of greatest conservation priority to also conserve co-occurring species (i.e., the umbrella species concept). The extent to which vertebrate species may serve as suitable umbrellas for invertebrate species, however, has rarely been explored. Sage-grouse (Centrocercus spp.) have high conservation priority throughout much of the rangelands of western North America and are considered an umbrella species through which the conservation of entire rangeland ecosystems can be accomplished. Harvester ants are ecosystem engineers and play important roles in the maintenance and function of rangeland ecosystems. We compared indices of the abundance of western harvester ants (Pogonomyrmex occidentalis) and Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) at 72 sites in central Wyoming, USA in 2012. The abundance of harvester ant mounds was best predicted by a regression model that included a combination of local habitat characteristics and the abundance of sage-grouse. When controlling for habitat-related factors, areas with higher abundances of sage-grouse pellets (an index of sage-grouse abundance and/or habitat use) had higher abundances of ant mounds than areas with lower abundances of sage-grouse pellets. The causal mechanism underlying this positive relationship between sage-grouse and ant mound abundance at the fine scale could be indirect (e.g., both species prefer similar environmental conditions) or direct (e.g., sage-grouse prefer areas with a high abundance of ant mounds because ants are an important prey item during certain life stages). We observed no relationship between a broad-scale index of breeding sage-grouse density and the abundance of ant mounds. We suspect that consideration of the non-breeding habitat of sage-grouse and finer-scale measures of sage-grouse abundance are critical to the utility of sage-grouse as an umbrella species for the conservation of harvester ants and their important role in rangeland ecosystems.