Climate change impacts on streamflow and subbasin-scale hydrology in the Upper Colorado River Basin.

In the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), the principal source of water in the southwestern U.S., demand exceeds supply in most years, and will likely continue to rise. While General Circulation Models (GCMs) project surface temperature warming by 3.5 to 5.6°C for the area, precipitation projections are variable, with no wetter or drier consensus. We assess the impacts of projected 21(st) century climatic changes on subbasins in the UCRB using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, for all hydrologic components (snowmelt, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, subsurface runoff, and streamflow), and for 16 GCMs under the A2 emission scenario. Over the GCM ensemble, our simulations project median Spring streamflow declines of 36% by the end of the 21(st) century, with increases more likely at higher elevations, and an overall range of -100 to +68%. Additionally, our results indicated Summer streamflow declines with median decreases of 46%, and an overall range of -100 to +22%. Analysis of hydrologic components indicates large spatial and temporal changes throughout the UCRB, with large snowmelt declines and temporal shifts in most hydrologic components. Warmer temperatures increase average annual evapotranspiration by ∼23%, with shifting seasonal soil moisture availability driving these increases in late Winter and early Spring. For the high-elevation water-generating regions, modest precipitation decreases result in an even greater water yield decrease with less available snowmelt. Precipitation increases with modest warming do not translate into the same magnitude of water-yield increases due to slight decreases in snowmelt and increases in evapotranspiration. For these basins, whether modest warming is associated with precipitation decreases or increases, continued rising temperatures may make drier futures. Subsequently, many subbasins are projected to turn from semi-arid to arid conditions by the 2080 s. In conclusion, water availability in the UCRB could significantly decline with adverse consequences for water supplies, agriculture, and ecosystem health.

Assessing ground water vulnerability with the type transfer function model in the San Joaquin Valley, California.

The recently developed type transfer function (TTF) simulation approach was applied to generate a regional-scale nonpoint-source ground water vulnerability assessment for the San Joaquin Valley, California. The computationally comparatively inexpensive TTF approach produces quantitative estimates of contaminant concentrations for large regional scales through characteristic functions based on different soil textures and their leaching properties. The TTF simulations employed an extensive soil and recharge database to estimate atrazine (1-chloro-3-ethylamino-5-isopropylamino-2,4,6-triazine) concentrations at a compliance depth of 3 m resulting from a surface application. Two different sets of TTFs with two different levels of upscaling were used for spatially uniform and distributed recharge estimates. Results show that estimated atrazine concentrations can be related to soil survey information. Areas with high potential vulnerability to atrazine leaching were found for soils with low organic carbon content and sandy loam and loam textures. Travel times for atrazine peak concentrations to the compliance depth ranged from 350 to 730 d. The extent of areas with estimated atrazine concentrations above the maximum contaminant level was less extensive when uniform annual recharge values were used. Simulated TTF concentrations were highest for eastern Fresno County, a vulnerability pattern that is also supported by field observations. The TTF modeling approach is shown to be a useful tool for quantitative pesticide leaching estimates at regional scales significantly larger than those of previous studies.