Change in Lumbar Lordosis after Decompressive Surgery in Lumbar Spinal Stenosis Patients and Associations with Patient Related Outcomes 2 Years after Surgery. Radiological and Clinical Results from the NORDSTEN Spinal Stenosis Trial.

STUDY DESIGN: A prospective cohort study. OBJECTIVE: The aim was to investigate changes in lumbar lordosis (LL) and its association to changes in patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) after decompressive surgery for lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS). SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND: Few studies have addressed change in LL after decompression surgery for LSS in relation to outcomes. METHOD: Pre- and postoperative data from 310 patients having standing x-ray both before and 2 years after surgery were included. The patients were grouped based on the change in LL preoperatively to 2 years after surgery; group 1: <5 degrees (n=196), group 2: ≥5 <10 degrees (n=55) or group 3: ≥10 degrees (n=59) of change in LL. The changes in function, disability and pain were assessed by the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), Numeric Rating Scale (NRS), and the Zurich claudication questionnaire (ZCQ). The three groups were compared regarding baseline variables using the ANOVA test for continuous variables and the chi-square test for categorical variables. The groups were further compared with a likelihood ratio test in relation to changes in PROMs 2 year after surgery and outcomes were adjusted for respective baseline PROMs, age, sex, smoking, BMI, Schizas and Pfirrmann scores. RESULTS: LL was significantly changed at group level 2 years after surgery with a mean difference of 2.2 (SD 9.4) degrees ( P =0.001). The three LL change groups did not show any significant differences in patient characteristics, function, disability, and pain at baseline. The two groups with a change of more than 5 degrees in LL 2 year after surgery (group 2 and 3) had significantly greater improvements in ODI ( P =0.022) and ZCQ function ( P =0.016) in the adjusted analyses, but was not significant for back and leg pain. CONCLUSION: Changed LL after decompressive surgery for LSS was associated with improved ODI and physical function.

Bacterial growth in patients with low back pain and Modic changes: protocol of a multicentre, case-control biopsy study.

INTRODUCTION: Bacterial infection and Modic changes (MCs) as causes of low back pain (LBP) are debated. Results diverged between two randomised controlled trials examining the effect of amoxicillin with and without clavulanic acid versus placebo on patients with chronic LBP (cLBP) and MCs. Previous biopsy studies have been criticised with regard to methods, few patients and controls, and insufficient measures to minimise perioperative contamination. In this study, we minimise contamination risk, include a control group and optimise statistical power. The main aim is to compare bacterial growth between patients with and without MCs. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This multicentre, case-control study examines disc and vertebral body biopsies of patients with cLBP. Cases have MCs at the level of tissue sampling, controls do not. Previously operated patients are included as a subgroup. Tissue is sampled before antibiotic prophylaxis with separate instruments. We will apply microbiological methods and histology on biopsies, and predefine criteria for significant bacterial growth, possible contamination and no growth. Microbiologists, surgeons and pathologist are blinded to allocation of case or control. Primary analysis assesses significant growth in MC1 versus controls and MC2 versus controls separately. Bacterial disc growth in previously operated patients, patients with large MCs and growth from the vertebral body in the fusion group are all considered exploratory analyses. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The Regional Committees for Medical and Health Research Ethics in Norway (REC South East, reference number 2015/697) has approved the study. Study participation requires written informed consent. The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03406624). Results will be disseminated in peer-reviewed journals, scientific conferences and patient fora. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03406624.

Predictive validity of the STarT Back screening tool among older adults with back pain.

BACKGROUND: The predictive validity of the STarT Back screening tool among older adults is uncertain. This study aimed to assess the predictive validity of the SBT among older adults in primary care. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included 452 patients aged ≥55 years seeking Norwegian primary care with a new episode of back pain. A poor outcome (persistent disabling back pain) was defined as a score of ≥7/24 on the Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire (RMDQ) at 3, 6 or 12 months of follow-up. The ability of the SBT risk groups to identify persistent disabling back pain was assessed with multivariable logistic regression, area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), and with the accuracy measures sensitivity, specificity, predictive values and likelihood ratios. RESULTS: The adjusted odds ratios (95% CI) for persistent disabling back pain were 2.40 (1.34-4.30) at 3 months, 3.42 (1.76-6.67) at 6 months and 2.81 (1.47-5.38) at 12 months for the medium-risk group (n = 118), and 8.90 (1.83-43.24), 2.66 (0.81-8.67) and 4.53 (1.24-16.46) for the high-risk group (n = 27), compared to the low-risk group (n = 282). There were no statistically significant differences in odds between the medium- and high-risk groups at any time point. AUC values (95% CI) were 0.65 (0.59-0.71), 0.67 (0.60-0.73) and 0.65 (0.58-0.71) at 3, 6 and 12 months. Accuracy measures were poor at all time points, with particularly poor sensitivity and negative likelihood ratio values. CONCLUSION: The predictive validity of the SBT risk groups in predicting persistent disabling back pain in older adults was poor. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: This study found that the STarT Back screening tool had poor predictive validity among older adults and that it may need recalibration or extension before widespread implementation among older adults. Having valid tools for this population may aid clinicians with allocating scarce healthcare resources, which is especially important considering the rapidly ageing population and its expected challenge to the healthcare systems.

Dural Sac Cross-sectional area change from preoperatively and up to 2 years after decompressive surgery for central lumbar spinal stenosis: investigation of operated levels, data from the NORDSTEN study.

PURPOSE: The aim of the present study was to investigate how canal area size changed from before surgery and up to 2 years after decompressive lumbar surgery lumbar spinal stenosis. Further, to investigate if an area change postoperatively (between 3 months to 2 years) was associated with any preoperative demographic, clinical or MRI variables or surgical method used. METHODS: The present study is analysis of data from the NORDSTEN- SST trial where 437 patients were randomized to one of three mini-invasive surgical methods for lumbar spinal stenosis. The patients underwent MRI examination of the lumbar spine before surgery, and 3 and 24 months after surgery. For all operated segments the dural sac cross-sectional area (DSCA) was measured in mm2. Baseline factors collected included age, gender, BMI and smoking habits. Furthermore, surgical method, index level, number of levels operated, all levels operated on and baseline Schizas grade were also included in the analysis. RESULTS: 437 patients were enrolled in the NORDSTEN-SST trial, whereof 310 (71%) had MRI at 3 months and 2 years. Mean DSCA at index level was 52.0 mm2 (SD 21.2) at baseline, at 3 months it increased to 117.2 mm2 (SD 43.0) and after 2 years the area was 127.7 mm2 (SD 52.5). Surgical method, level operated on or Schizas did not influence change in DSCA from 3 to 24 months follow-up. CONCLUSION: The spinal canal area after lumbar decompressive surgery for lumbar spinal stenosis increased from baseline to 3 months after surgery and remained thereafter unchanged 2 years postoperatively.

Preoperative fatty infiltration of paraspinal muscles assessed by MRI is associated with less improvement of leg pain 2 years after surgery for lumbar spinal stenosis.

PURPOSE: Fatty infiltration (FI) of the paraspinal muscles may associate with pain and surgical complications in patients with lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS). We evaluated the prognostic influence of MRI-assessed paraspinal muscles' FI on pain or disability 2 years after surgery for LSS. METHODS: A muscle fat index (MFI) was calculated (by dividing signal intensity of psoas to multifidus and erector spinae) on preoperative axial T2-weighted MRI of patients with LSS. Pain and disability 2 years after surgery were assessed using the Oswestry disability index, the Zurich claudication questionnaire and numeric rating scales for leg and back pain. Multivariate linear and logistic regression analyses (adjusted for preoperative outcome scores, age, body mass index, sex, smoking status, grade of spinal stenosis, disc degeneration and facet joint osteoarthritis) were used to assess the associations between MFI and patient-reported clinical outcomes. In the logistic regression models, odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for associations between the MFI and ≥ 30% improvement of the outcomes (dichotomised into yes/no). RESULTS: A total of 243 patients were evaluated (mean age 66.6 ± 8.5 years), 49% females (119). Preoperative MFI and postoperative leg pain were significantly associated, both with leg pain as continuous (coefficient - 3.20, 95% CI - 5.61, - 0.80) and dichotomised (OR 1.51, 95% CI 1.17, 1.95) scores. Associations between the MFI and the other outcome measures were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: Preoperative FI of the paraspinal muscles on MRI showed statistically significant association with postoperative NRS leg pain but not with ODI or ZCQ.

The association between lumbar lordosis preoperatively and changes in PROMs for lumbar spinal stenosis patients 2 years after spinal surgery: radiological and clinical results from the NORDSTEN-spinal stenosis trial.

BACKGROUND: Patients with lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS) sometimes have lower lumbar lordosis (LL), and the incidence of LSS correlates closely with the loss of LL. The few studies that have evaluated the association between LL and clinical outcomes after non-instrumented surgery for LSS show conflicting results. This study investigates the association between preoperative LL and changes in PROMs 2 years after decompressive surgery. METHOD: This prospective cohort study obtained preoperative and postoperative data for 401 patients from the multicenter randomized controlled spinal stenosis trial as part of the NORwegian degenerative spondylolisthesis and spinal STENosis (NORDSTEN) study. Before surgery, the radiological sagittal alignment parameter LL was measured using standing X-rays. The association between LL and 2-year postoperative changes was analyzed using the oswestry disability index (ODI), a numeric rating scale (NRS) for low back and leg pain, the Zurich claudication questionnaire (ZCQ), and the global perceived effect (GPE) score. The changes in PROMs 2 years after surgery for quintiles of lumbar lordosis were adjusted for the respective baseline PROMs: age, sex, smoking, and BMI. The Schizas index and the Pfirrmann index were used to analyze multiple regressions for changes in PROMs. RESULTS: There were no associations in the adjusted and unadjusted analyses between preoperative LL and changes in ODI, ZCQ, GPE, and NRS for back and leg pain 2 years after surgery. CONCLUSION: LL before surgery was not associated with changes in PROMs 2 years after surgery. Lumbar lordosis should not be a factor when considering decompressive surgery for LSS.

Machine Learning Models for Predicting Disability and Pain Following Lumbar Disc Herniation Surgery.

Importance: Lumber disc herniation surgery can reduce pain and disability. However, a sizable minority of individuals experience minimal benefit, necessitating the development of accurate prediction models. Objective: To develop and validate prediction models for disability and pain 12 months after lumbar disc herniation surgery. Design, Setting, and Participants: A prospective, multicenter, registry-based prognostic study was conducted on a cohort of individuals undergoing lumbar disc herniation surgery from January 1, 2007, to May 31, 2021. Patients in the Norwegian Registry for Spine Surgery from all public and private hospitals in Norway performing spine surgery were included. Data analysis was performed from January to June 2023. Exposures: Microdiscectomy or open discectomy. Main Outcomes and Measures: Treatment success at 12 months, defined as improvement in Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) of 22 points or more; Numeric Rating Scale (NRS) back pain improvement of 2 or more points, and NRS leg pain improvement of 4 or more points. Machine learning models were trained for model development and internal-external cross-validation applied over geographic regions to validate the models. Model performance was assessed through discrimination (C statistic) and calibration (slope and intercept). Results: Analysis included 22 707 surgical cases (21 161 patients) (ODI model) (mean [SD] age, 47.0 [14.0] years; 12 952 [57.0%] males). Treatment nonsuccess was experienced by 33% (ODI), 27% (NRS back pain), and 31% (NRS leg pain) of the patients. In internal-external cross-validation, the selected machine learning models showed consistent discrimination and calibration across all 5 regions. The C statistic ranged from 0.81 to 0.84 (pooled random-effects meta-analysis estimate, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.81-0.84) for the ODI model. Calibration slopes (point estimates, 0.94-1.03; pooled estimate, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.93-1.06) and calibration intercepts (point estimates, -0.05 to 0.11; pooled estimate, 0.01; 95% CI, -0.07 to 0.10) were also consistent across regions. For NRS back pain, the C statistic ranged from 0.75 to 0.80 (pooled estimate, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.75-0.79); for NRS leg pain, the C statistic ranged from 0.74 to 0.77 (pooled estimate, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.74-0.76). Only minor heterogeneity was found in calibration slopes and intercepts. Conclusion: The findings of this study suggest that the models developed can inform patients and clinicians about individual prognosis and aid in surgical decision-making.

Identifying latent subgroups in the older population seeking primary health care for a new episode of back pain - findings from the BACE-N cohort.

BACKGROUND: Back pain is the number one condition contributing to years lived with disability worldwide, and one of the most common reasons for seeking primary care. Research on this condition in the ageing population is sparse. Further, the heterogeneity of patients with back pain complicates the management in clinical care. It is possible that subgrouping people with similar characteristics would improve management. This paper aimed to identify latent classes based on demographics, pain characteristics, psychosocial behavior, and beliefs and attitudes about back pain, among older patients seeking primary care with a new episode of back pain, and to examine if there were differences regarding the classes' first point-of-contact. METHODS: The study was part of the international BACE (Back complaints in elders) consortium and included 435 patients aged ≥ 55 years seeking primary care (general practitioners, physiotherapists, and chiropractors) in Norway from April 2015 to March 2020. A latent class analysis was performed to identify latent classes. The classes were described in terms of baseline characteristics and first point-of-contact in primary care. RESULTS: Four latent classes were identified. The mean age was similar across groups, as were high expectations towards improvement. Class 1 (n = 169, 39%), the "positive" class, had more positive attitudes and beliefs, less pain catastrophizing and shorter duration of current pain episode. Class 2 (n = 31, 7%), the "fearful" class, exhibited the most fear avoidance behavior, and had higher mean pain intensity. Class 3 (n = 33, 8%), the "distressed" class, had the highest scores on depression, disability, and catastrophizing. Finally, class 4 (n = 202, 46%), the "hopeful" class, showed the highest expectations for recovery, although having high pain intensity. The identified four classes showed high internal homogeneity, sufficient between-group heterogeneity and were considered clinically meaningful. The distribution of first point-of-contact was similar across classes, except for the positive class where significantly more patients visited chiropractors compared to general practitioners and physiotherapists. CONCLUSIONS: The identified classes may contribute to targeting clinical management of these patients. Longitudinal research on these latent classes is needed to explore whether the latent classes have prognostic value. Validation studies are needed to evaluate external validity. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT04261309.

Do patients with lumbar spinal stenosis benefit from decompression of levels with adjacent moderate stenosis? A prospective cohort study from the NORDSTEN study.

BACKGROUND: Lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS) is characterized by pain that radiates to the buttocks and/or legs, aggravated by walking and relieved by forward flexion. There is poor correlation between clinical symptoms and severity of stenosis on MRI, and multilevel stenosis has not been described to present worse symptoms or treatment outcomes, compared with patients with single-level stenosis. In patients with one level with severe stenosis combined with an adjacent level with moderate stenosis, the surgeon must decide whether to decompress only the narrowest level or both, to achieve the best possible outcome. The potential benefits of performing surgery on an adjacent moderate stenosis is debated, and the scientific evidence in scarce. PURPOSE: The aim of the present study was to investigate whether patients with a level of adjacent moderate stenosis, along with an index stenosis, benefitted from a dual-level decompression (DLD) compared with a single-level decompression (SLD). Furthermore, to investigate whether DLD patients had longer duration of surgery and hospital stay, higher rates of complications and/or lower rate of reoperations compared with SLD patients. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. PATIENT SAMPLE: We analyzed data from the Norwegian Degenerative Spondylisthesis and Spinal Stenosis study- Spinal Stenosis Trial (NORDSTEN-SST). In this randomized multicenter study, 437 patients were included, evaluating clinical outcomes of three different surgical treatment options for LSS. Patients with degenerative spondylolisthesis were excluded. METHOD: Based on preoperative MRI, the present analysis included all patients who had a moderate stenosis (defined as Schizas B or C) in addition to a predefined index stenosis (the level with the smallest cross-sectional area). We compared patients who, based on the surgeons` choice, received a dual-level decompression, with those receiving a single-level decompression. OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was mean change in the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) score from baseline to 2-year follow up. Secondary outcomes were proportion of success (30% reduction in ODI score), the Numeric Rating Scales for back and leg pain (NRS), the EuroQol 5-dimensional questionnaire utility index (EQ-5D), the Zurich Claudication Questionnaire (ZCQ), the Global Perceived Effect (GPE)-scale, duration of surgery, duration of hospital stay, perioperative complications and reoperation rates. RESULTS: Among the 222 patients, included in the analysis, 108 underwent DLD and 114 underwent SLD. There was no difference in change scores for any of the investigated patient-reported outcomes between the groups after 2 years. However, the DLD group had longer duration of surgery and longer length of hospital stay. There was no difference in reoperation rates or perioperative complications. CONCLUSION: This study, alongside the NORDSTEN-LSS trial on patients with adjacent moderate stenosis as well as an index stenosis, showed no superior clinical effectiveness for dual-level surgery compared with single-level surgery.

Childhood trauma and the use of opioids and other prescription analgesics in adolescence and young adulthood: The HUNT Study.

ABSTRACT: Opioid and nonopioid analgesics are commonly prescribed to young people to alleviate pain. Even short-term prescriptions increase the risk of persistent use and future misuse of potent analgesics, such as opioids. Childhood trauma exposure has been found to be related to pain conditions and to using more prescription analgesics. This large, prospective cohort study aimed to investigate the association of a broad range of childhood trauma exposures with prescription rates for opioid and nonopioid analgesics in adolescence and young adulthood. Self-reported data on childhood trauma exposures from adolescents (aged 13-19 years) who participated in the Young-HUNT3 Study (2006-2008, n = 8199) were linked to data from the Norwegian Prescription Database (NorPD, 2004-2021). We found that exposure to childhood trauma was consistently associated with higher prescription rates for opioids throughout adolescence and young adulthood. The highest incidence rate ratio (IRR) in adolescence was observed for sexual abuse (IRR 1.63, confidence interval [CI] 1.19-2.23). In young adulthood, the highest IRR was observed for physical violence (2.66, CI 2.27-3.12). The same overall pattern was observed for nonopioid analgesics. The more frequent prescriptions of opioid and nonopioid analgesics to participants exposed to childhood trauma suggests a higher symptom load of pain causing them to seek professional help with pain relief. Receiving potent analgesics is not without risk, and the likelihood of misuse may be elevated among trauma-exposed individuals. A trauma-informed approach to pain could be vital for guiding clinicians to the most effective and least harmful treatment for each patient.

Longitudinal Relationship Between Reduced Modic Change Edema and Disability and Pain in Patients With Chronic Low Back Pain.

STUDY DESIGN: Secondary analyses of a randomized trial [Antibiotics In Modic changes (MCs) study]. OBJECTIVE: To assess whether or not reduced MC edema over time is related to reduced disability and pain in patients with chronic low back pain (LBP). SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: It is not clear whether or not reduced MC edema implies improved clinical outcomes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Linear regression was conducted separately in 2 subgroups with MC edema at baseline on short tau inversion recovery (STIR) or T1/T2-weighted magnetic resonance imaging, respectively. Independent variable: reduced edema (yes/no) at 1 year on STIR or T1/T2-series, respectively. Dependent variable: 1-year score on the Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire (RMDQ), Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), or 0 to 10 numeric rating scale for LBP intensity, adjusted for the baseline score, age, smoking, body mass index, physical workload, and baseline edema on STIR (STIR analysis only). Post hoc, we, in addition, adjusted all analyses for baseline edema on STIR, treatment group (amoxicillin/placebo), and prior disc surgery-or for disc degeneration. RESULTS: Among patients with MC edema on STIR at baseline (n = 162), reduced edema on STIR was not significantly related to the RMDQ ( B : -1.0, 95% CI: -2.8, 0.8; P = 0.27), ODI ( B :-1.4, 95% CI: -5.4, 2.6; P = 0.50), or LBP intensity scores ( B : -0.05, 95% CI: -0.8, 0.7; P = 0.90) after 1 year. Among patients with MC edema on T1/T2-series at baseline (n = 116), reduced edema on T1/T2 ( i.e ., reduced volume of the type 1 part of MCs) was not significantly related to RMDQ ( B: -1.7, 95% CI: -3.8, 0.3; P = 0.10) or ODI score ( B : -2.3, 95% CI: -7.1, 2.5; P = 0.34) but was significantly related to LBP intensity at 1 year ( B : -0.9, 95% CI: -1.8, -0.04; P = 0.04; correlation coefficient: 0.24). The post hoc analyses supported these results. CONCLUSION: Reduced MC edema over 1 year was not significantly associated with pain-related disability but was (on T1/T2-series) significantly but weakly related to reduced LBP intensity. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level 3.

Problematic alcohol use in young adults exposed to childhood trauma: The Trøndelag Health (HUNT) Study.

Problematic alcohol use (PAU) severely impacts the health, functioning, and long-term prospects of young people. Prior research indicates that childhood trauma exposure may be an important risk factor for PAU, but few longitudinal studies have looked at how specific trauma types influence this risk. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between childhood trauma exposure and PAU in a large, population-based cohort of young people. The study sample included 1,913 adolescents who participated in the Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT) between 2006 and 2008 (age range: 12-20) and completed follow-up 10 years later as young adults (age range: 22-32). The results revealed an increased risk of PAU in young adults exposed to childhood trauma, especially direct physical violence, OR = 2.38, [95% CI 1.56, 3.64]. Young adults who had witnessed violence, OR = 1.55, [95% CI 1.11, 2.17], or experienced an accident, disaster, or other traumatic event, OR = 1.60, [95% CI 1.19, 2.15], also had higher odds of PAU compared to those without such experiences. These associations remained consistent after adjusting for symptoms of headaches and pain as well as posttraumatic and general psychological distress as reported by the participants in adolescence. Future prevention efforts targeting PAU among adolescents and young adults should address violence and other trauma exposure as potential drivers of problematic drinking.

Killing pain? A prospective population-based study on trauma exposure in childhood as predictor for frequent use of over-the-counter analgesics in young adulthood. The HUNT study.

Frequent and increasing use of over-the-counter analgesics (OTCA) is a public health concern. Pain conditions and psychological distress are related to frequent OTCA use, and as exposure to potentially traumatic events (PTE) in childhood appears to increase risk of experiencing such symptoms, we aimed to assess childhood PTEs and related symptoms in adolescence as predictors for frequent OTCA use in young adulthood. Prospective population survey data were used (n = 2947, 59.1% female, 10-13 years follow-up). Exposure to PTEs, symptoms of post-traumatic stress, anxiety and depression, musculoskeletal pain and headache were assessed in adolescence (13-19 years). Use of OTCA was assessed in young adulthood (22-32 years) and use of OTCA to treat musculoskeletal pain and headache served as separate outcomes in ordinal logistic regression analyses. Overall, exposure to childhood PTEs, particularly direct interpersonal violence, was significantly and consistently related to more frequent use of OTCA to treat musculoskeletal pain and headaches in young adulthood. Adjusting for psychological symptoms and pain attenuated associations, indicating that these symptoms are of importance for the relationship between traumatic events and OTCA use. These findings emphasize the need to address symptomatology and underlying causes at an early age.

The Norwegian degenerative spondylolisthesis and spinal stenosis (NORDSTEN) study: study overview, organization structure and study population.

PURPOSE: To provide an overview of the The Norwegian Degenerative spondylolisthesis and spinal stenosis (NORDSTEN)-study and the organizational structure, and to evaluate the study population. METHODS: The NORDSTEN is a multicentre study with 10 year follow-up, conducted at 18 public hospitals. NORDSTEN includes three studies: (1) The randomized spinal stenosis trial comparing the impact of three different decompression techniques; (2) the randomized degenerative spondylolisthesis trial investigating whether decompression surgery alone is as good as decompression with instrumented fusion; (3) the observational cohort tracking the natural course of LSS in patients without planned surgical treatment. A range of clinical and radiological data are collected at defined time points. To administer, guide, monitor and assist the surgical units and the researchers involved, the NORDSTEN national project organization was established. Corresponding clinical data from the Norwegian Registry for Spine Surgery (NORspine) were used to assess if the randomized NORDSTEN-population at baseline was representative for LSS patients treated in routine surgical practice. RESULTS: A total of 988 LSS patients with or without spondylolistheses were included from 2014 to 2018. The clinical trials did not find any difference in the efficacy of the surgical methods evaluated. The NORDSTEN patients were similar to those being consecutively operated at the same hospitals and reported to the NORspine during the same time period. CONCLUSION: The NORDSTEN study provides opportunity to investigate clinical course of LSS with or without surgical interventions. The NORDSTEN-study population were similar to LSS patients treated in routine surgical practice, supporting the external validity of previously published results. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov; NCT02007083 10/12/2013, NCT02051374 31/01/2014 and NCT03562936 20/06/2018.

Is the presence of foraminal stenosis associated with outcome in lumbar spinal stenosis patients treated with posterior microsurgical decompression.

BACKGROUND: We aim to investigate associations between preoperative radiological findings of lumbar foraminal stenosis with clinical outcomes after posterior microsurgical decompression in patients with predominantly central lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS). METHODS: The study was an additional analysis in the NORDSTEN Spinal Stenosis Trial. In total, 230 men and 207 women (mean age 66.8 (SD 8.3)) were included. All patients underwent an MRI including T1- and T2-weighted sequences. Grade of foraminal stenosis was dichotomized into none to moderate (0-1) and severe (2-3) category using Lee's classification system. The Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), Zurich Claudication Questionnaire (ZCQ), and numeric rating scale (NRS) for back and leg pain were collected at baseline and at 2-year follow-up. Primary outcome was a reduction of 30% or more on the ODI score. Secondary outcomes included the mean improvement on the ODI, ZCQ, and NRS scores. We performed multivariable regression analyses with the radiological variates foraminal stenosis, Pfirrmann grade, Schizas score, dural sac cross-sectional area, and the possible plausible confounders: patients' gender, age, smoking status, and BMI. RESULTS: The cohort of 437 patients presented a high degree of degenerative changes at baseline. Of 414 patients with adequate imaging of potential foraminal stenosis, 402 were labeled in the none to moderate category and 12 in the severe category. Of the patients with none to moderate foraminal stenosis, 71% achieved at least 30% improvement in ODI. Among the patients with severe foraminal stenosis, 36% achieved at least 30% improvement in ODI. A significant association between severe foraminal stenosis and less chance of reaching the target of 30% improvement in the ODI score after surgery was detected: OR 0.22 (95% CI 0.06, 0.83), p=0.03. When investigating outcome as continuous variables, a similar association between severe foraminal stenosis and less improved ODI with a mean difference of 9.28 points (95%CI 0.47, 18.09; p=0.04) was found. Significant association between severe foraminal stenosis and less improved NRS pain in the lumbar region was also detected with a mean difference of 1.89 (95% CI 0.30, 3.49; p=0.02). No significant association was suggested between severe foraminal stenosis and ZCQ or NRS leg pain. CONCLUSION: In patients operated with posterior microsurgical decompression for LSS, a preoperative severe lumbar foraminal stenosis was associated with higher proportion of patients with less than 30% improvement in ODI. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (22.11.2013) under the identifier NCT02007083.

Long-Term Use of Amoxicillin Is Associated with Changes in Gene Expression and DNA Methylation in Patients with Low Back Pain and Modic Changes.

Long-term antibiotics are prescribed for a variety of medical conditions, recently including low back pain with Modic changes. The molecular impact of such treatment is unknown. We conducted longitudinal transcriptome and epigenome analyses in patients (n = 100) receiving amoxicillin treatment or placebo for 100 days in the Antibiotics in Modic Changes (AIM) study. Gene expression and DNA methylation were investigated at a genome-wide level at screening, after 100 days of treatment, and at one-year follow-up. We identified intra-individual longitudinal changes in gene expression and DNA methylation in patients receiving amoxicillin, while few changes were observed in patients receiving placebo. After 100 days of amoxicillin treatment, 28 genes were significantly differentially expressed, including the downregulation of 19 immunoglobulin genes. At one-year follow-up, the expression levels were still not completely restored. The significant changes in DNA methylation (n = 4548 CpGs) were mainly increased methylation levels between 100 days and one-year follow-up. Hence, the effects on gene expression occurred predominantly during treatment, while the effects on DNA methylation occurred after treatment. In conclusion, unrecognized side effects of long-term amoxicillin treatment were revealed, as alterations were observed in both gene expression and DNA methylation that lasted long after the end of treatment.

External validation and updating of prognostic prediction models for nonrecovery among older adults seeking primary care for back pain.

ABSTRACT: Prognostic prediction models for 3 different definitions of nonrecovery were developed in the Back Complaints in the Elders study in the Netherlands. The models' performance was good (optimism-adjusted area under receiver operating characteristics [AUC] curve ≥0.77, R2 ≥0.3). This study aimed to assess the external validity of the 3 prognostic prediction models in the Norwegian Back Complaints in the Elders study. We conducted a prospective cohort study, including 452 patients aged ≥55 years, seeking primary care for a new episode of back pain. Nonrecovery was defined for 2 outcomes, combining 6- and 12-month follow-up data: Persistent back pain (≥3/10 on numeric rating scale) and persistent disability (≥4/24 on Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire). We could not assess the third model (self-reported nonrecovery) because of substantial missing data (>50%). The models consisted of biopsychosocial prognostic factors. First, we assessed Nagelkerke R2 , discrimination (AUC) and calibration (calibration-in-the-large [CITL], slope, and calibration plot). Step 2 was to recalibrate the models based on CITL and slope. Step 3 was to reestimate the model coefficients and assess if this improved performance. The back pain model demonstrated acceptable discrimination (AUC 0.74, 95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.79), and R2 was 0.23. The disability model demonstrated excellent discrimination (AUC 0.81, 95% confidence interval: 0.76-0.85), and R2 was 0.35. Both models had poor calibration (CITL <0, slope <1). Recalibration yielded acceptable calibration for both models, according to the calibration plots. Step 3 did not improve performance substantially. The recalibrated models may need further external validation, and the models' clinical impact should be assessed.

Surgery in degenerative spondylolisthesis: does fusion improve outcome in subgroups? A secondary analysis from a randomized trial (NORDSTEN trial).

BACKGROUND CONTEXT: Patients with spinal stenosis and degenerative spondylolisthesis are treated surgically with decompression alone or decompression with fusion. However, there is debate regarding which subgroups of patients may benefit from additional fusion. PURPOSE: To investigate possible treatment effect modifiers and prognostic variables among patients operated for spinal stenosis and degenerative spondylolisthesis. DESIGN: A secondary exploratory study using data from the Norwegian Degenerative Spondylolisthesis and Spinal Stenosis (NORDSTEN-DS) trial. Patients were randomized to decompression alone or decompression with instrumented fusion. PATIENT SAMPLE: The sample in this study consists of 267 patients from a randomized multicenter trial involving 16 hospitals in Norway. Patients were enrolled from February 12, 2014, to December 18, 2017. The study did not include patients with degenerative scoliosis, severe foraminal stenosis, multilevel spondylolisthesis, or previous surgery. OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was an improvement of ≥ 30% on the Oswestry Disability Index score (ODI) from baseline to 2-year follow-up. METHODS: When investigating possible variables that could modify the treatment effect, we analyzed the treatment arms separately. When testing for prognostic factors we analyzed the whole cohort (both treatment groups). We used univariate and multiple regression analyses. The selection of variables was done a priori, according to the published trial protocol. RESULTS: Of the 267 patients included in the trial (183 female [67%]; mean [SD] age, 66 [7.6] years), complete baseline data for the variables required for the present analysis were available for 205 of the 267 individuals. We did not find any clinical or radiological variables at baseline that modified the treatment effect. Thus, none of the commonly used criteria for selecting patients for fusion surgery influenced the chosen primary outcome in the two treatment arms. For the whole cohort, less comorbidity (American Society of Anesthesiologists Classification [ASA], OR = 4.35; 95% confidence interval (CI [1.16-16.67]) and more preoperative leg pain (OR = 1.23; CI [1.02-1.50]) were significantly associated with an improved primary outcome. CONCLUSIONS: In this study on patients with degenerative spondylolisthesis, neither previously defined instability criteria nor other pre-specified baseline variables were associated with better clinical outcome if fusion surgery was performed. None of the analyzed variables can be applied to guide the decision for fusion surgery in patients with degenerative spondylolisthesis. For both treatment groups, less comorbidity and more leg pain were associated with improved outcome 2 years after surgery. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NORDSTEN-DS ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02051374.

Musculoskeletal pain is not clearly associated with the risk of anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction in adolescents.

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to investigate whether self-reported musculoskeletal pain (MSP) was associated with a future anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR). Methods: In this population-based prospective cohort study, we included 8087 participants from the adolescent part of the Trøndelag Health Study (Young-HUNT) in Norway. The exposure was self-reported MSP from the Young-HUNT3 study (2006-2008), which was categorised into two MSP load groups (high MSP and low MSP) based on frequency and number of pain sites. The outcome was ACLRs recorded in the Norwegian Knee Ligament Register between 2006 and 2019. Logistic regression was used to investigate association between MSP load and ACLR, given as ORs with 95% CIs. All tests were two-sided and p values of ≤0.05 were considered statistically significant. Results: 8087 adolescents were included. We identified a total of 99 ACLRs, with 6 ACLRs (0.9%) in adolescents who reported high MSP load and 93 ACLRs (1.3%) among those who reported low MSP load. Adolescents reporting high MSP load had 23% lower odds of an ACLR (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.31 to 1.91) compared with adolescents with low MSP load. However, the CIs were very wide. Conclusion: Self-reported high MSP load in adolescents was not associated with increased risk of future ACLR. Although the number of participants was high, the relatively few cases of ACLR mean that we cannot be conclusive about the presence or absence of an association.

Cytokine Patterns as Predictors of Antibiotic Treatment Effect in Chronic Low Back Pain with Modic Changes: Subgroup Analyses of a Randomized Trial (AIM Study).

Objective: Randomized trials testing the effect of antibiotics for chronic low back pain (LBP) with vertebral bone marrow changes on MRI (Modic changes) report inconsistent results. A proposed explanation is subgroups with low grade discitis where antibiotics are effective, but there is currently no method to identify such subgroups. The objective of the present study was to evaluate whether distinct patterns of serum cytokine levels predict any treatment effect of oral amoxicillin at one-year follow-up in patients with chronic low back pain and Modic changes at the level of a previous lumbar disc herniation. Design: We used data from an overpowered, randomized, placebo-controlled trial (the AIM study) that tested 100 days of oral 750 mg amoxicillin vs placebo three times daily in hospital outpatients with chronic (>6 months) LBP with pain intensity ≥5 on a 0-10 numerical rating scale and Modic changes type 1 (oedema type) or 2 (fatty type). We measured serum levels of 40 inflammatory cytokines at baseline and analysed six predefined potential predictors of treatment effect based on cytokine patterns in 78 randomized patients; three analyses with recursive partitioning, one based on cluster analysis and two based on principal component analyses. The primary outcome was the Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire score at one-year follow-up in the intention to treat population. The methodology and overall results of the AIM study were published previously. Results: The 78 patients were 25-62 years old and 47 (60%) were women. None of the three recursive partitioning analyses resulted in any suggested subgroups. Of all main analyses, the largest effect estimate (mean difference between antibiotic and placebo groups) was seen in a subgroup not predefined as of main interest (Cluster category 3+4; -2.0, 95% CI: -5.2-1.3, RMDQ points; p-value for interaction 0.54). Conclusion: Patterns of inflammatory serum cytokine levels did not predict treatment effect of amoxicillin in patients with chronic LBP and Modic changes. Clinical Trial Registration Number: ClinicalTrials.gov (identifier: NCT02323412).