The effect of temperature on the boundary conditions of West Nile virus circulation in Europe.

West Nile virus (WNV) is a vector-borne flavivirus that causes an increasing number of human and equine West Nile fever cases in Europe. While the virus has been present in the Mediterranean basin and the Balkans since the 1960s, recent years have witnessed its northward expansion, with the first human cases reported in Germany in 2018 and the Netherlands in 2020. WNV transmission and amplification within mosquitoes are temperature-dependent. This study applies a mathematical modelling approach to assess the conditions under which WNV circulation occurs based on the proportion of mosquito bites on WNV-competent birds (dilution), vector-host ratios, mosquito season length and the observed daily temperature data. We modelled five distinct European regions where previous WNV circulation has been observed within the Netherlands, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Greece. We observed that the number of days in which the basic reproduction number (R0) is above one, increased over the last 40 years in all five regions. In the Netherlands, the number of days in which the R0 is above one, is 70% lower than in Spain. The temperature in Greece, Spain and Italy allowed for circulation under low vector-host ratios, and at a high dilution. On the other hand in the Netherlands and Germany, given the observed daily temperature, the thresholds for circulation requires a lower dilution and higher vector-host ratios. For the Netherlands, a short window of introductions between late May and mid-June would result in detectable outbreaks. Our findings revealed that the temperate maritime climate of the Netherlands allows WNV circulation primarily during warmer summers, and only under high vector-host ratios. This research contributes valuable insights into the dynamic relationship between temperature, vector properties, and WNV transmission, offering guidance for proactive strategies in addressing this emerging health threat in Europe.

Rapid response screening for emerging zoonotic pathogens, barriers and opportunities: A study for enhanced preparedness of the Netherlands.

Background: Outbreaks of zoonotic emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) require rapid identification of potential reservoir hosts and mapping disease spread in these hosts to inform risk assessment and adequate control measures. Animals are often understudied when a novel EID is detected in humans and acquisition of animal samples is hampered by practical, ethical, and legal barriers, of which there is currently no clear overview. Therefore, the three aims of this study are (1) to map potentially available collections of animal samples, (2) to assess possibilities and barriers for reuse of these samples and (3) to assess possibilities and barriers for active animal and environmental sampling in the Netherlands. Methods: A literature search was performed to identify ongoing sampling activities and opportunities for reuse or active sampling. Semi-structured interviews with stakeholder organizations were conducted to gain further insight into the three research questions. Results: Various sample collections of surveillance, diagnostic and research activities exist in the Netherlands. Sample size, coverage, storage methods and type of samples collected differs per animal species which influences reuse suitability. Organizations are more likely to share samples, for reuse in outbreak investigations, when they have a pre-existing relationship with the requesting institute. Identified barriers for sharing were, among others, unfamiliarity with legislation and unsuitable data management systems. Active sampling of animals or the environment is possible through several routes. Related barriers are acquiring approval from animal- or property owners, conflicts with anonymization, and time needed to acquire ethical approval. Conclusion: The animal sample collections identified would be very valuable for use in outbreak investigations. Barriers for sharing may be overcome by increasing familiarity with legislation, building (international) sharing networks and agreements before crises occur and developing systems for sample registration and biobanking. Proactive setting up of ethical approvals will allow for rapid animal sample collection to identify EID hosts and potential spillovers.