"Going into the black box": a policy analysis of how the World Health Organization uses evidence to inform guideline recommendations.

Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) plays a crucial role in producing global guidelines. In response to previous criticism, WHO has made efforts to enhance the process of guideline development, aiming for greater systematicity and transparency. However, it remains unclear whether these changes have effectively addressed these earlier critiques. This paper examines the policy process employed by WHO to inform guideline recommendations, using the update of the WHO Consolidated HIV Testing Services (HTS) Guidelines as a case study. Methods: We observed guideline development meetings and conducted semi-structured interviews with key participants involved in the WHO guideline-making process. The interviews were recorded, transcribed, and analysed thematically. The data were deductively coded and analysed in line with the main themes from a published conceptual framework for context-based evidence-based decision making: introduction, interpretation, and application of evidence. Results: The HTS guideline update was characterized by an inclusive and transparent process, involving a wide range of stakeholders. However, it was noted that not all stakeholders could participate equally due to gaps in training and preparation, particularly regarding the complexity of the Grading Recommendations Assessment Development Evaluation (GRADE) framework. We also found that WHO does not set priorities for which or how many guidelines should be produced each year and does not systematically evaluate the implementation of their recommendations. Our interviews revealed disconnects in the evidence synthesis process, starting from the development of systematic review protocols. While GRADE prioritizes evidence from RCTs, the Guideline Development Group (GDG) heavily emphasized "other" GRADE domains for which little or no evidence was available from the systematic reviews. As a result, expert judgements and opinions played a role in making recommendations. Finally, the role of donors and their presence as observers during GDG meetings was not clearly defined. Conclusion: We found a need for a different approach to evidence synthesis due to the diverse range of global guidelines produced by WHO. Ideally, the evidence synthesis should be broad enough to capture evidence from different types of studies for all domains in the GRADE framework. Greater structure is required in formulating GDGs and clarifying the role of donors through the process.

Long-term impact of parenting-related leave policies on adolescents' well-being: a systematic review of quasi-experiments.

BACKGROUND: Parenting-related leave policies have gained increasing endorsement across Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries in recent decades. Previous reviews have focused on the short-term impacts and found predominantly positive effects on children. Although there is a growing interest in the long-term impact during adolescence and young adulthood, a comprehensive assessment of this aspect is currently lacking. METHODS: We systematically reviewed studies from three electronic databases (Scopus, Web of Science and PubMed), which used quasi-experimental design and examined policies legislating the introduction or expansion of parenting-related leave policies in North America or Europe. We looked at studies focused on well-being beyond the age of 12 and analyzed the findings across different domains of well-being: health, education and labour market outcomes. RESULTS: The quasi-experimental evidence is rather limited. The introduction of leave policies or gender-specific quotas produces substantial benefits in the long run. Further, maternal socioeconomic and educational background appears to play a substantial moderating role between leave and adolescents' well-being. Adolescents with mothers who have higher levels of education have demonstrated a more pronounced advantage from the extended time spent together, thereby accentuating pre-existing disparities. CONCLUSIONS: Though the expansion of already long leaves might not generate significant outcomes, the introduction of leave policies or gender-specific quotas produces substantial long-term benefits. This evidence entails considerable policy implications for countries that lack a national leave policy or offer only short durations of paid leave, such as the USA.

How to increase COVID-19 vaccination among a population with persistently suboptimal vaccine uptake? Evidence from the North Macedonia mobile vaccination and public health advice caravan.

Over three years since the first COVID-19 vaccine was approved, many countries still have suboptimal vaccination rates despite holding great amounts of vaccines. Overall, there is little evidence on which policies are more effective to encourage vaccination, particularly in countries where a large share of the population remains unvaccinated. In this study, we examine the effectiveness of a community-based intervention carried out in March 2022 in North Macedonia, a country with a large and persistent share of the population that remains unvaccinated. The intervention, spearheaded by the Ministry of Health and supported by the World Health Organization and UNICEF, consisted of a mobile caravan offering vaccination and public health advice to different locations across the country on different days. Results from our staggered difference-in-difference model show that the mobile vaccination caravan increased daily vaccination rates by 7.7 vaccines per 100,000 inhabitants during the three weeks after the day of the caravan visit. This corresponds to a 35 % increase with respect to pre-intervention vaccination rates. We estimate a cost-effectiveness of 25.4 US dollars (USD) per additional vaccination induced. These results point to mobile caravan vaccines as an effective and cost-effective strategy to increase COVID-19 vaccination rates, even in a context of persistently suboptimal uptake.

Who are the superheroes? A cross-sectional study on the determinants of good health among Italian older adults.

BACKGROUND: People who reach old age enjoying good physical and mental health can be defined as (health) "superheroes", given their relatively low impact on healthcare expenditure and the desirable model they represent. AIM: To evaluate prevalence and possible determinants of being "physical superheroes" (i.e., free from the ten major chronic conditions, plus obesity), "mental superheroes" (i.e., free from major mental symptoms), and "superheroes" (i.e., both mental and physical superheroes). METHODS: A telephone-based cross-sectional study (LOST in Lombardia) was conducted in November 2020 (i.e., during the COVID-19 pandemic) on a representative sample of 4,400 adults aged ≥ 65 years from Lombardy region, northern Italy. All participants provided both current data and data referring to one year before. RESULTS: Mental and physical superheroes were 59.0% and 17.6%, respectively. Superheroes were 12.8% overall, 15.1% among men, and 11.1% among women; 20.2% among individuals aged 65-69 years, 11.3% among 70-74, 10.0% among 75-79, and 8.3% among ≥ 80 years. Multivariable analysis showed that female sex, higher age, disadvantaged socio-economic status, and physical inactivity (p for trend < 0.001) were inversely related to being superheroes. People not smoking (adjusted odds ratio, aOR = 1.40), alcohol abstainers (aOR = 1.30), and those free from feelings of hopelessness (aOR = 5.92) more frequently met the definition of superheroes. During COVID-19 pandemic, the proportion of superheroes decreased by 16.3%. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in the older adults' health status are largely attributable to their lifestyles but are also likely due to gender, educational, and socio-economic disparities, which should be properly addressed by public health policies.

Addressing vaccine hesitancy: experimental evidence from nine high-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic.

We study the impact of public health messages on intentions to vaccinate and vaccination uptakes, especially among hesitant groups. We performed an experiment comparing the effects of egoistic and altruistic messages on COVID-19 vaccine intentions and behaviour. We administered different messages at random in a survey of 6379 adults in December 2020, following up with participants in the nationally representative survey Citizens' Attitudes Under COVID-19 Project covering nine high-income countries (Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Italy, New Zealand, Sweden, the UK and the USA). Four alternative interventions were tested, based on narratives of (1) self-protection, (2) protecting others, (3) reducing health risks and (4) economic protection. We measure vaccination intentions in the December 2020 survey and elicit actual vaccination behaviour by respondents in the June/July 2021 survey. Messages conveying self-protection had no effect on vaccine intentions but altruistic messages, emphasising protecting other individuals (0.022, 95% CI -0.004 to 0.048), population health (0.030, 95% CI 0.003 to 0.056) and the economy (0.038, 95% CI 0.013 to 0.064) had substantially stronger effects. These effects were stronger in countries experiencing high COVID-19 mortality (Austria, France, Italy, Sweden, the UK and the USA), where health risks may have been more salient, but weaker and, in several cases, not significant where mortality was low (Australia, Germany and New Zealand). On follow-up at 6 months, these brief communication interventions corresponded to substantially higher vaccination uptake. Our experiments found that commonly employed narratives around self-protection had no effect. However, altruistic messages about protecting individuals, population health and the economy had substantially positive and enduring effects on increasing vaccination intentions. Our results can help structure communication campaigns during pandemics and are likely to generalise to other vaccine-preventable epidemics.

Health and labor market effects of an unanticipated rise in retirement age. Evidence from the 2012 Italian pension reform.

As retirement ages increase around the world, not all workers may be equally able to extend their working lives. In this article, we examine the health and labor market effects of an Italian pension reform that suddenly increased the normal retirement age up to 7 years for women and up to 2 years for men. To do this, we use linked labor and healthcare administrative data, jointly with survey data and difference-in-difference methods. Our results show that the reform was effective in postponing retirement among both genders, as pension claiming dropped substantially for older workers. However, there were also side effects as the reform significantly pushed previously employed men and women into unemployment and disability pension. Among women only, the reform also increased sick leave and hospitalizations related to mental health and injuries. These effects were driven by women with previously low health status, suggesting that undifferentiated and abrupt increases in pension age might harm more vulnerable workers. Coherently with the milder tightening of retirement age experienced by men, labor market responses were smaller in size, and they did not suffer any significant health effects.

Health and social home services among community-dwelling older people during COVID-19: Results from the cross-sectional LOST in Lombardia project.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have focused on changes in health and social services access due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to describe changes in the use of selected health and social home services due to the pandemic and to investigate potential associated factors, including socio-demographic characteristics, number of chronic diseases and mental health indicators, among older Italian individuals. METHODS: We analysed data from the LOST in Lombardia cross-sectional study conducted in November 2020 on a large representative sample of 4400 individuals aged ⩾65 years. To identify potential factors associated with the increased use of three selected health and social home services, we estimated odds ratios (OR) and confidence intervals (CI) using multivariable logistic regression models. RESULTS: Compared to the year before, 5.0% of older adults increased help from domestic workers (vs. 6.9% reducing) during the pandemic, 4.4% increased help from non-familiar caregivers (vs. 1.3% decreasing) and 4.7% increased medical home visits (vs. 1.0% decreasing). An increase in the use of these services was more frequent among participants with co-morbidities (p for trend <0.001), especially with diabetes (for caregivers: OR=12.2, 95% CI 6.0-24.8), and worse mental health (for caregivers and for those with a GAD-2 score ⩾3 vs. <3: OR=10.6, 95% CI 5.8-19.4). Conversely, people living in more crowded households less frequently increased health and social services use during the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: Our results should inform targeted interventions for the identified vulnerable groups to close the gap in health and social inequities.

Grandparenting during pandemic times: pros and cons for mental health.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdown measures posed an unprecedented challenge to the crucial role of grandparenting in family-oriented cultures, such as Italy. Reduced contact with grandchildren during this period potentially threatened grandparents' mental health and well-being. METHODS: We analysed data from the LOckdown and lifeSTyles in Lombardia cross-sectional study conducted in November 2020. The study included a representative sample of 4400 older adults from Lombardy, Italy, of which 1289 provided childcare to their grandchildren. RESULTS: A decrease in self-reported grandparenting was associated with an increased likelihood of experiencing depressive symptoms among grandparents (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.01-2.24). Conversely, an increase in grandparenting was linked to poorer sleep quality (OR 11.67, 95% CI 5.88-23.17) and reduced sleep quantity (OR 2.53, 95% CI 1.45-4.41). CONCLUSIONS: Despite the barriers posed by the pandemic, grandparenting played a beneficial role in maintaining the mental health and well-being of older adults. However, it is crucial to recognise specific vulnerabilities, such as gender, feelings of hopelessness and overcrowding, which can have detrimental effects during and beyond emergency situations. Careful attention to these factors is essential for developing targeted support systems and interventions aimed at safeguarding the mental health of older adults and enhancing their resilience in crises.

Have COVID-19 Stimulus Packages Mitigated the Negative Health Impacts of Pandemic-Related Job Losses? A Systematic Review of Global Evidence from the First Year of the Pandemic.

Social protection can buffer the negative impacts of unemployment on health. Have stimulus packages introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic mitigated potential harms to health from unemployment? We performed a systematic review of the health effects of job loss during the first year of the pandemic. We searched three electronic databases and identified 49 studies for inclusion. Three United States-based studies found that stimulus programs mitigated the impact of job loss on food security and mental health. Furloughs additionally appeared to reduce negative impacts when they were paid. However, despite the implementation of large-scale stimulus packages to reduce economic harms, we observed a clear pattern that job losses were nevertheless significantly associated with negative impacts, particularly on mental health, quality of life, and food security. We also observe suggestive evidence that COVID-related job loss was associated with child maltreatment, worsening dental health, and poor chronic disease outcomes. Overall, although we did find evidence that income-support policies appeared to help protect people from the negative health consequences of pandemic-related job loss, they were not sufficient to fully offset the threats to health. Future research should ascertain how to ensure adequate access to and generosity of social protection programs during epidemics and economic downturns.

The far-right and anti-vaccine attitudes: lessons from Spain's mass COVID-19 vaccine roll-out.

BACKGROUND: Far-right politicians in several countries have been vocal opponents of COVID-19 vaccination. But can this threaten vaccine roll-out? METHODS: We take advantage of repeated cross-sectional surveys with samples of around 3800 individuals across Spain conducted monthly from December 2020 to January 2022 (n = 51 294) to examine any association between far-right politics and vaccine hesitancy through the whole vaccine roll-out. RESULTS: Consistent with prior data, we found that far-right supporters were almost twice as likely to be vaccine-hesitant than the overall population in December 2020, before vaccines became available. However, with a successful vaccine roll out, this difference shrank, reaching non-significance by September 2021. From October 2021, however, vaccine hesitancy rebounded among this group at a time when the leadership of the far-right promoted a 'freedom of choice' discourse common among anti-vax supporters. By the latest month analysed (January 2022), far-right voters had returned to being twice as likely to be vaccine-hesitant and 7 percentage points less likely to be vaccinated than the general population. CONCLUSIONS: Our results are consistent with evidence that far-right politicians can encourage vaccine hesitancy. Nonetheless, we show that public attitudes towards vaccination are not immutable. Whereas a rapid and effective vaccine rollout can help to overcome the resistance of far-right voters to get vaccinated, they also seem to be susceptible to their party leader's discourse on vaccines.

COVID-19 pandemic impact on mental health in a large representative sample of older adults from the Lombardy region, Italy.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to assess the prevalence of depressive and anxiety symptoms, hopelessness and insomnia in the older adults before and during the COVID-19 pandemic identifying subgroups at higher risk of mental distress. METHODS: Within the Lost in Lombardy project, a web-based cross-sectional study was conducted on a representative sample of 4400 older adults aged 65 years or more from the Lombardy region recruited between November 17th and 30th 2020. RESULTS: The prevalence of depressive symptoms increased by +112 % during the pandemic, anxiety symptoms by +136 %, insufficient sleep by +12 %, unsatisfactory sleep by +15 %. Feelings of hopelessness were more frequent among women compared to men and increased with increasing age. A worsening in each of the four specific mental health outcomes was more frequently observed in women (OR = 1.50, depression; OR = 1.31, anxiety; OR = 1.57, sleep quality; OR = 1.38, sleep quantity), in subjects who decreased their physical activity during the pandemic (OR = 1.64, depression; OR = 1.48, anxiety; OR = 2.05, sleep quality; OR = 1.28, sleep quantity), and with increasing number of pre-existing chronic diseases. The use of at least one psychotropic drug - mostly antidepressants/anxiolytics - increased by +26 % compared to pre-pandemic. LIMITATIONS: Pre-pandemic symptoms were retrospectively reported during the Covid pandemic. Potential information and recall bias should not be ruled out. CONCLUSIONS: If confirmed by future longitudinal studies, our findings could support evidence-based health and welfare policies on responding to this pandemic and on how to promote mental health and wellbeing, should future waves of infection emerge.

Effectiveness of alternative approaches to integrating SDOH into medical education: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing recognition of including social determinants of health (SDOH) in teaching for future doctors. However, the educational methods and the extent of integration into the curriculum vary considerably-this scoping review is aimed at how SDOH has been introduced into medical schools' curricula. METHODS: A systematic search was performed of six electronic databases, including PubMed, Education Source, Scopus, OVID (Medline), APA Psych Info, and ERIC. Articles were excluded if they did not cover the SDOH curriculum for medical students; were based on service-learning rather than didactic content; were pilot courses, or were not in English, leaving eight articles in the final study. RESULTS: The initial search yielded 654 articles after removing duplicates. In the first screening step, 588 articles were excluded after applying inclusion and exclusion criteria and quality assessment; we examined 66 articles, a total of eight included in the study. There was considerable heterogeneity in the content, structure and duration of SDOH curricula. Of the eight included studies, six were in the United States(U.S.), one in the United Kingdom (U.K.) and one in Israel. Four main conceptual frameworks were invoked: the U.S. Healthy People 2020, two World Health Organisation frameworks (The Life Course and the Michael Marmot's Social Determinants of Health), and the National Academic of Science, Engineering, and Medicine's (Framework For educating Health Professionals to Address the Social Determinants of Health). In general, programs that lasted longer appeared to perform better than shorter-duration programmes. Students favoured interactive, experiential-learning teaching methods over the traditional classroom-based teaching methods. CONCLUSION: The incorporation of well-structured SDOH curricula capturing both local specification and a global framework, combined with a combination of traditional and interactive teaching methods over extended periods, may be helpful in steps for creating lifelong learners and socially accountable medical school education.

Global financing for health policy and systems research: a review of funding opportunities.

Health policy and systems research (HPSR) is a neglected area in global health financing. Despite repeated calls for greater investment, it seems that there has been little growth. We analysed trends in reported funding and activity between 2015 and 2021 using a novel real-time source of global health data, the Devex.com database, the world's largest source of funding opportunities related to international development. We performed a systematic search of the Devex.com database for HPSR-related terms with a focus on low- and middle-income countries. We included 'programs', 'tenders & grants' and 'contract awards', covering all call statuses (open, closed or forecast). Such funding opportunities were included if they were related specifically to HPSR funding or had an HPSR component; pure biomedical funding was excluded. Our findings reveal a relative neglect of HPSR, as only ∼2% of all global health funding calls included a discernible HPSR component. Despite increases in funding calls until 2019, this situation reversed in 2020, likely reflecting the redirection of resources to rapid assessments of the impacts of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Most identified projects represented small-scale opportunities-commonly for consultancies or technical assistance. To the extent that new data were generated, these projects were either tied to a specific large intervention or were narrow in scope to meet a specific challenge-with many examples informing policy responses to the Covid-19 pandemic. Nearly half of advertised funding opportunities were multi-country projects, usually addressing global policy priorities like health systems strengthening or development of coordinated public health policies at a regional level. The Covid-19 pandemic has shown why investing in HPSR is more important than ever to enable the delivery of effective health interventions and avoid costly implementation failures. The evidence presented here highlights the need to scale up efforts to convince global health funders to institutionalize the inclusion of HPSR components in all funding calls.

Big food and drink sponsorship of conferences and speakers: a case study of one multinational company's influence over knowledge dissemination and professional engagement.

OBJECTIVES: Research identifies that multinational corporations, including The Coca-Cola Company ('Coca-Cola'), seek to influence public health research and policy through scientific events, such as academic and professional conferences. This study aims to understand how different forms of funding and sponsorship impact the relationship between Coca-Cola, academic institutions, public health organisations, academics and researchers. DESIGN: The study was conducted using Freedom of Information (FOI) requests and systematic website searches. SETTING: Data were collected by twenty-two FOI requests to institutions in the USA and UK, resulting in the disclosure of 11 488 pages, including emails and attachments relating to 239 events between 2009 and 2018. We used the Wayback Machine to review historical website data to evaluate evidence from 151 available official conference websites. PARTICIPANTS: N/A. RESULTS: Documents suggest that Coca-Cola provides direct financial support to institutions and organisations hosting events in exchange for benefits, including influence over proceedings. Coca-Cola also provided direct financial support to speakers and researchers, sometimes conditional on media interviews. Also, indirect financial support passed through Coca-Cola-financed non-profits. Often, such financial support was not readily identifiable, and third-party involvement further concealed Coca-Cola funding. CONCLUSION: Coca-Cola exerts direct influence on academic institutions and organisations that convene major public health conferences and events. These events offer Coca-Cola a vehicle for its messaging and amplifying viewpoints favourable to Coca-Cola's interests. Such corporate-sponsored events should be viewed as instruments of industry marketing. Stronger rules and safeguards are needed to prevent hidden industry influence, such as complete disclosure of all corporate contributions for public health conferences and their speakers.

How to Achieve Universal Health Coverage: A Case Study of Uganda Using the Political Process Model Comment on "Health Coverage and Financial Protection in Uganda: A Political Economy Perspective".

How can resource-deprived countries accelerate progress towards universal health coverage (UHC)? Here we extend the analysis of Nanini and colleagues to investigate a case-study of Uganda, where despite high-level commitments, health system priority and funding has shrunk over the past two decades. We draw on the Stuckler-McKee adapted Political Process model to evaluate three forces for effecting change: reframing the debate; acting on political windows of opportunity; and mobilising resources. Our analysis proposes a series of pragmatic steps from academics, non-governmental organisations, and government officials that can help neutralise the forces that oppose UHC and overcome fragmentation of the pro-UHC movement.

Who is coercively admitted to psychiatric wards? Epidemiological analysis of inpatient records of involuntary psychiatric admissions to a University General Hospital in Greece for the years 2008-2017.

BACKGROUND: Involuntary psychiatric admissions are a widely used practice despite ethical concerns about coercion. There are particular concerns that vulnerable groups, such as single, unemployed or racial minorities, may be more subjected to such practices. AIM: We aimed to investigate the social patterns of involuntary psychiatric admissions from 2008 to 2017 at University General Hospital in Ioannina, Greece. METHOD: We retrospectively assessed inpatient records from 2008 to 2017 of patients admitted to the Department of Psychiatry of the Ioannina University General Hospital, Northwestern Greece. Alternative patients of alternative years were selected for inclusion; this yielded 332 patients involuntarily admitted, corresponding to 28.5% of total involuntary psychiatric admissions. RESULTS: Over the 10-year period, the overall numbers of annual involuntary psychiatric admissions remained relatively stable, as did the length of hospital stay (mean = 23.8 days). The most common disorder upon admission was schizophrenia spectrum disorders, accounting for approximately two-thirds of all admissions, followed by mood disorders (about 20%). There was evidence that people who lacked social support or experienced financial hardship were more greatly represented among those admitted: 70.2% of admitted patients were single and 64.8% were unemployed. Most patients had been admitted to the psychiatric ward in the past (64.2%). CONCLUSION: Our study indicates potentially worrisome evidence that patients who are in vulnerable positions are at elevated likelihood of being involuntarily admitted to psychiatric wards. Future research is needed to evaluate the socio-demographic patterning of involuntary admissions in other European countries.

Donor support for Health Policy and Systems Research: barriers to financing and opportunities for overcoming them.

BACKGROUND: The vast investments that have been made in recent decades in new medicines, vaccines, and technologies will only lead to improvements in health if there are appropriate and well-functioning health systems to make use of them. However, despite the growing acceptance by major global donors of the importance of health systems, there is an enthusiasm gap when it comes to disbursing funds needed to understand the intricacies of how, why and when these systems deliver effective interventions. To understand the reasons behind this, we open up the black box of donor decision-making vis-à-vis Health Policy and Systems Research (HPSR) financing: what are the organizational processes behind the support for HPSR, and what are the barriers to increasing engagement? METHODS: We conducted 27 semi-structured interviews with staff of major global health funders, asking them about four key issues: motivations for HPSR financing; priorities in HPSR financing; barriers for increasing HPSR allocations; and challenges or opportunities for the future. We transcribed the interviews and manually coded responses. RESULTS: Our findings point to the growing appreciation that funders have of HPSR, even though it is often still seen as an 'afterthought' to larger programmatic interventions. In identifying barriers to funding HPSR, our informants emphasised the perceived lack of mandate and capacities of their organizations. For most funding organisations, a major barrier was that their leadership often voiced scepticism about HPSR's long time horizons and limited ability to quantify results. CONCLUSION: Meeting contemporary health challenges requires strong and effective health systems. By allocating more resources to HPSR, global donors can improve the quality of their interventions, and also contribute to building up a stock of knowledge that domestic policymakers and other funders can draw on to develop better targeted programmes and policies.

Do missing teeth cause early-onset cognitive impairment? Re-examining the evidence using a quasi-natural experiment.

PURPOSE: Multiple studies have reported a positive association between missing teeth and cognitive impairment. While some authors have postulated causal mechanisms, existing designs preclude assessing this. METHODS: We sought evidence of a causal effect of missing teeth on early-onset cognitive impairment in a natural experiment, using differential exposure to fluoridated water during critical childhood years (ages 5-20 years) in England as the instrument. We coded missing teeth from 0 (≤ 12 missing) to 3 (all missing) and measured the association with cognitive impairment in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing data (2014-5), covering 4958 persons aged 50-70 years. RESULTS: We first replicated previous evidence of the strongly positive association of missing teeth with cognitive impairment (ß = 0.25 [0.11, 0.39]), after adjusting for socio-demographic covariates, such as age, gender, education, and wealth. Using an instrumental variable design, we found that childhood exposure to water fluoridation was strongly associated with fewer missing teeth, with being exposed to fluoridated water during childhood (16 years) associated with a 0.96 reduction in the missing teeth scale (ß = - 0.06 [- 0.10, - 0.02]). However, when using the instrumented measure of missing teeth, predicted by probability of fluoride exposure, we found that missing teeth no longer had an association with cognitive impairment (ß = 1.48 [- 1.22, 4.17]), suggesting that previous oral health-cognitive impairment associations had unobserved confounding. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings are consistent with the possibility that unobserved confounding leads to the oft-observed association between missing teeth and early-onset cognitive impairment, suggesting that the relationship is spurious rather than causal.

Effectiveness of early warning systems in the detection of infectious diseases outbreaks: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Global pandemics have occurred with increasing frequency over the past decade reflecting the sub-optimum operationalization of surveillance systems handling human health data. Despite the wide array of current surveillance methods, their effectiveness varies with multiple factors. Here, we perform a systematic review of the effectiveness of alternative infectious diseases Early Warning Systems (EWSs) with a focus on the surveillance data collection methods, and taking into consideration feasibility in different settings. METHODS: We searched PubMed and Scopus databases on 21 October 2022. Articles were included if they covered the implementation of an early warning system and evaluated infectious diseases outbreaks that had potential to become pandemics. Of 1669 studies screened, 68 were included in the final sample. We performed quality assessment using an adapted CASP Checklist. RESULTS: Of the 68 articles included, 42 articles found EWSs successfully functioned independently as surveillance systems for pandemic-wide infectious diseases outbreaks, and 16 studies reported EWSs to have contributing surveillance features through complementary roles. Chief complaints from emergency departments' data is an effective EWS but it requires standardized formats across hospitals. Centralized Public Health records-based EWSs facilitate information sharing; however, they rely on clinicians' reporting of cases. Facilitated reporting by remote health settings and rapid alarm transmission are key advantages of Web-based EWSs. Pharmaceutical sales and laboratory results did not prove solo effectiveness. The EWS design combining surveillance data from both health records and staff was very successful. Also, daily surveillance data notification was the most successful and accepted enhancement strategy especially during mass gathering events. Eventually, in Low Middle Income Countries, working to improve and enhance existing systems was more critical than implementing new Syndromic Surveillance approaches. CONCLUSIONS: Our study was able to evaluate the effectiveness of Early Warning Systems in different contexts and resource settings based on the EWSs' method of data collection. There is consistent evidence that EWSs compiling pre-diagnosis data are more proactive to detect outbreaks. However, the fact that Syndromic Surveillance Systems (SSS) are more proactive than diagnostic disease surveillance should not be taken as an effective clue for outbreaks detection.