Estimating the global economic benefits of physically active populations over 30 years (2020-2050).

OBJECTIVES: We assess the potential benefits of increased physical activity for the global economy for 23 countries and the rest of the world from 2020 to 2050. The main factors taken into account in the economic assessment are excess mortality and lower productivity. METHODS: This study links three methodologies. First, we estimate the association between physical inactivity and workplace productivity using multivariable regression models with proprietary data on 120 143 individuals in the UK and six Asian countries (Australia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore and Sri Lanka). Second, we analyse the association between physical activity and mortality risk through a meta-regression analysis with data from 74 prior studies with global coverage. Finally, the estimated effects are combined in a computable general equilibrium macroeconomic model to project the economic benefits of physical activity over time. RESULTS: Doing at least 150 min of moderate-intensity physical activity per week, as per lower limit of the range recommended by the 2020 WHO guidelines, would lead to an increase in global gross domestic product (GDP) of 0.15%-0.24% per year by 2050, worth up to US$314-446 billion per year and US$6.0-8.6 trillion cumulatively over the 30-year projection horizon (in 2019 prices). The results vary by country due to differences in baseline levels of physical activity and GDP per capita. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing physical activity in the population would lead to reduction in working-age mortality and morbidity and an increase in productivity, particularly through lower presenteeism, leading to substantial economic gains for the global economy.

The impact of short-term incentives on physical activity in a UK behavioural incentives programme.

This observational study investigates whether the provision of ongoing short-term-incentives for verified physical activity increases and sustains levels of physical activity. We compared UK members at baseline (years 1 and 2) prior to Vitality's Active Rewards (VAR) intervention commencing (year 3) and follow-up (year 4) for verified, self-reported (encompassing additional physical activities), mortality relative risk and satisfaction with physical activity. Members were categorised into low-active, medium-active and high-active by tertiles of baseline physical activity. Of 11,881 participants, 6477(54.5%) were male, with mean age 39.7(SD 9.8) years. At follow-up, annual active days had increased by 56% overall [60.8(59.7-61.9)-94.8(93.0-96.5)]; 554% in low-active [8.5(8.3-8.7)-47.1(44.7-49.5)]; 205% in medium-active [39.8(39.4-40.2)-81.4(78.7-84.1)] and 17% in high-active members [131.7(129.9-133.5)-153.7(150.7-156.7)] (all p < 0.001). Annual weeks of attaining international physical activity recommendations increased by 19% overall [22.2(42.8%)-26.4(50.8%)] and by 316% for low-active members [4.9(9.5%)-15.5(29.8%)]. Self-reported active minutes/week increased by 45% overall [1423(139.4-145.2)-207.0(201.8-212.3)] and 712% in low-active members [20.1(19.3-21.0)-143.2(134.6-151.9)]. Happiness with exercise levels also increased from 1985(49.4%) to 3414(84.9%) members (all p < 0.001). The relative risk of mortality from a lack of physical activity reduced by 7% for low-active members [from 0.99 to 0.92], 5% for medium-active [0.94-0.89] and 3% for high-active [0.89-0.86](p < 0.001) and by 0.02% for each additional year of age (p = 0.02). This large-scale, real-world, short-term-incentives intervention led to a dramatic increase in physical activity which was sustained for, and still increasing after, two years. If applied at broader level, this approach could considerably aid progress towards WHO targets in its Global Action Plan for Physical Activity.