A chronological map of 308 physical and mental health conditions from 4 million individuals in the English National Health Service.

Background: To effectively prevent, detect, and treat health conditions that affect people during their lifecourse, health-care professionals and researchers need to know which sections of the population are susceptible to which health conditions and at which ages. Hence, we aimed to map the course of human health by identifying the 50 most common health conditions in each decade of life and estimating the median age at first diagnosis. Methods: We developed phenotyping algorithms and codelists for physical and mental health conditions that involve intensive use of health-care resources. Individuals older than 1 year were included in the study if their primary-care and hospital-admission records met research standards set by the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and they had been registered in a general practice in England contributing up-to-standard data for at least 1 year during the study period. We used linked records of individuals from the CALIBER platform to calculate the sex-standardised cumulative incidence for these conditions by 10-year age groups between April 1, 2010, and March 31, 2015. We also derived the median age at diagnosis and prevalence estimates stratified by age, sex, and ethnicity (black, white, south Asian) over the study period from the primary-care and secondary-care records of patients. Findings: We developed case definitions for 308 disease phenotypes. We used records of 2 784 138 patients for the calculation of cumulative incidence and of 3 872 451 patients for the calculation of period prevalence and median age at diagnosis of these conditions. Conditions that first gained prominence at key stages of life were: atopic conditions and infections that led to hospital admission in children (<10 years); acne and menstrual disorders in the teenage years (10-19 years); mental health conditions, obesity, and migraine in individuals aged 20-29 years; soft-tissue disorders and gastro-oesophageal reflux disease in individuals aged 30-39 years; dyslipidaemia, hypertension, and erectile dysfunction in individuals aged 40-59 years; cancer, osteoarthritis, benign prostatic hyperplasia, cataract, diverticular disease, type 2 diabetes, and deafness in individuals aged 60-79 years; and atrial fibrillation, dementia, acute and chronic kidney disease, heart failure, ischaemic heart disease, anaemia, and osteoporosis in individuals aged 80 years or older. Black or south-Asian individuals were diagnosed earlier than white individuals for 258 (84%) of the 308 conditions. Bone fractures and atopic conditions were recorded earlier in male individuals, whereas female individuals were diagnosed at younger ages with nutritional anaemias, tubulointerstitial nephritis, and urinary disorders. Interpretation: We have produced the first chronological map of human health with cumulative-incidence and period-prevalence estimates for multiple morbidities in parallel from birth to advanced age. This can guide clinicians, policy makers, and researchers on how to formulate differential diagnoses, allocate resources, and target research priorities on the basis of the knowledge of who gets which diseases when. We have published our phenotyping algorithms on the CALIBER open-access Portal which will facilitate future research by providing a curated list of reusable case definitions. Funding: Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research, Medical Research Council, Arthritis Research UK, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates, Department of Health and Social Care (England), Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Welsh Government), Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland), Economic and Social Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, National Institute for Social Care and Health Research, and The Alan Turing Institute.

An ecological study of NHS funded elective hip arthroplasties in England from 2003/04 to 2012/13.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the impact of NHS-funded private provision on NHS provision, access and inequalities. DESIGN: Ecological study using routinely collected NHS inpatient data. SETTING: England. PARTICIPANTS: All individuals undergoing an NHS-funded elective hip arthroplasty in England from 2003/2004 to 2012/2013. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Annual crude and standardised rates of hip arthroplasties per 100,000 population performed by NHS and private providers between 2004/2005 and 2012/2013. RESULTS: Age standardised rates of hip arthroplasty increased from 116.4 (95% CI 115.4-117.4) to 148.7 (147.6-149.8) per 100,000 between 2004/2005 and 2012/2013. Provision shifted from NHS providers to private providers from 2007/2008; NHS provision decreased 8.6% and private provision increased 188% between 2007/2008 and 2012/2013. There is evidence of risk selection; private sector hip arthroplasties on NHS patients from the most affluent areas increased 228% from 10.8 (10.2-11.5) to 35.4 (34.3-36.5) per 100,000 compared to an increase of 186% from 8.8 (8.1-9.4) to 25.2 (24.1-26.4) per 100,000 among patients from the least affluent areas between 2007/2008 and 2012/2013. There was no statistically significant (p > 0.05) widening in any measure of inequality (absolute, relative difference and slope and relative slope of index inequality) in hip arthroplasty rates between 2004/2005 and 2012/2013. CONCLUSION: Private provision substituted for NHS provision and did not add to overall provision favouring patients living in the most affluent area. Continuing the trend towards private provision and reducing NHS provision is likely to result in risk selection and widening inequalities in provision of elective hip arthroplasty in England.

Does the ethnic density effect extend to obesity? A cross-sectional study of 415 166 adults in east London.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the prevalence of obesity by ethnic group and to examine the association between ethnic density and obesity prevalence. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cross-sectional study utilising electronic primary care records of 128 practices in a multiethnic population of east London. PARTICIPANTS: Electronic primary care records of 415 166 adults with a body mass index recorded in the previous 3 years. OUTCOME MEASURES: (1) Odds of obesity for different ethnic groups compared with white British. (2) Prevalence of obesity associated with each 10% increase in own-group ethnic density, by ethnic group. RESULTS: Using multilevel logistic regression models, we find that compared with white British/Irish males, the odds of obesity were significantly higher among black ethnic groups and significantly lower among Asian and white other groups. Among females, all ethnic groups except Chinese and white other were at increased odds of obesity compared with white British/Irish. There was no association between increasing ethnic density and obesity prevalence, except among black Africans and Indian females. A 10% increase in black ethnic density was associated with a 15% increase in odds of obesity among black African males (95% CI 1.07 to 1.24) and 18% among black African females (95% CI 1.08 to 1.30). Among Indian females, a 10% increase in Indian ethnic density was associated with a 7% decrease in odds of obesity (95% CI 0.88 to 0.99). CONCLUSION: Wider environmental factors play a greater role in determining obesity than the ethnic composition of the area for most ethnic groups. Further research is needed to understand the mechanism through which increasing ethnic density is associated with increased odds of obesity among black Africans and decreased odds of obesity among Indian females.

Is obesity associated with depression in children? Systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the odds of depression in obese and overweight children with that in normal-weight children in the community. DESIGN: Systematic review and random-effect meta-analysis of observational studies. DATA SOURCES: EMBASE, PubMed and PsychINFO electronic databases, published between January 2000 and January 2017. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES: Cross-sectional or longitudinal observational studies that recruited children (aged <18 years) drawn from the community who had their weight status classified by body mass index, using age-adjusted and sex-adjusted reference charts or the International Obesity Task Force age-sex specific cut-offs, and concurrent or prospective odds of depression were measured. RESULTS: Twenty-two studies representing 143 603 children were included in the meta-analysis. Prevalence of depression among obese children was 10.4%. Compared with normal-weight children, odds of depression were 1.32 higher (95% CI 1.17 to 1.50) in obese children. Among obese female children, odds of depression were 1.44 (95% CI 1.20 to 1.72) higher compared with that of normal-weight female children. No association was found between overweight children and depression (OR 1.04, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.14) or among obese or overweight male subgroups and depression (OR 1.14, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.41% and 1.08, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.37, respectively). Subgroup analysis of cross-sectional and longitudinal studies separately revealed childhood obesity was associated with both concurrent (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.45) and prospective odds (OR 1.51, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.88) of depression. CONCLUSION: We found strong evidence that obese female children have a significantly higher odds of depression compared with normal-weight female children, and this risk persists into adulthood. Clinicians should consider screening obese female children for symptoms of depression. BACKGROUND: Childhood mental illness is poorly recognised by healthcare providers and parents, despite half of all lifetime cases of diagnosable mental illness beginning by the age of 14 years. 1 Globally, depression is the leading cause of disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life years, in children aged 10-19 years. 2 Untreated, it is associated with poor school performance and social functioning, substance misuse, recurring depression in adulthood and increased suicide risk, which is the second leading cause of preventable death among young people. 3-6 The resulting cost to the National Health Service of treating depression is estimated at over £2 billion, and the wider social and economic impact of depression is likely to be considerable. 7.

Political views of doctors in the UK: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the political views of doctors in the UK despite doctors' importance in the functioning of the National Health Service (NHS). METHODS: This is a survey-based, cross-sectional study in which we asked questions about voting behaviour in 2015 and 2017 UK general elections and 2016 referendum on leaving the European Union (EU) (Brexit), and questions relating to recent health policies. RESULTS: 1172 doctors (45.1% women) from 1295 responded to an online survey. 60.5% described their political views as 'left-wing' and 62.2% described themselves as 'liberal'. 79.4% of respondents voted to remain in the EU in the 2016 referendum compared with 48.1% of voters as a whole (χ2=819.8, p<0.001). 98.6% of respondents agreed that EU nationals working in the NHS should be able to remain in the UK after Brexit. The median score for the impact of Brexit on the NHS on a scale of 0 (worst impact) to 10 (best impact) was 2 (IQR=1-4). Most respondents agreed with the introduction of minimum alcohol pricing in the UK (73.9%), charging patients who are not eligible for NHS treatment for non-urgent care (70.6%) and protecting a portion of national spending for the NHS (87.1%). 65.8% thought there was too much use of NHS-funded private sector provision in their medical practice. Specialty, income and grade were associated with divergent opinions. CONCLUSIONS: UK doctors are left-leaning and liberal in general, which is reflected in their opinions on topical health policy issues. Doctors in the UK voted differently from the general electorate in recent polls.

Marketization in Long-Term Care: A Cross-Country Comparison of Large For-Profit Nursing Home Chains.

This article presents cross-country comparisons of trends in for-profit nursing home chains in Canada, Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom, and the United States. Using public and private industry reports, the study describes ownership, corporate strategies, costs, and quality of the 5 largest for-profit chains in each country. The findings show that large for-profit nursing home chains are increasingly owned by private equity investors, have had many ownership changes over time, and have complex organizational structures. Large for-profit nursing home chains increasingly dominate the market and their strategies include the separation of property from operations, diversification, the expansion to many locations, and the use of tax havens. Generally, the chains have large revenues with high profit margins with some documented quality problems. The lack of adequate public information about the ownership, costs, and quality of services provided by nursing home chains is problematic in all the countries. The marketization of nursing home care poses new challenges to governments in collecting and reporting information to control costs as well as to ensure quality and public accountability.

Translational phases of evidence in a prognostic biomarker: a systematic review and meta-analysis of natriuretic peptides and the prognosis of stable coronary disease.

CONTEXT: Translational phases of study are important in evaluating whether a prognostic biomarker is likely to have impact on clinical practice but systematic evaluations of such evidence are lacking. OBJECTIVE: To systematically evaluate the clinical usefulness of the published literature on the association of natriuretic peptides (NP) and prognosis in stable coronary disease. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE and EMBASE until the end of July 2009, without restrictions. STUDY SELECTION: Prospective studies measuring NP in people with stable coronary disease who were followed-up for all cause mortality, coronary or cardiovascular events. DATA EXTRACTION: Two independent reviewers categorised studies according to the American Heart Association phase of study, and extracted data according to the study reporting guidelines from the American Heart Association and REMARK. RESULTS: Systematic review of 19 studies found 17 which were phase 2, reporting an association between NP and events, two phase 3 studies, statistically examining the incremental prognostic value of NP, but no studies assessing whether NP predicted risk sufficiently to change management (phase 4), improve clinical outcomes (phase 5) or cost effectiveness (phase 6). No study referred to a statistical analytic protocol. Meta-analysis of 14 studies, reporting 18,841 patients and 1655 outcome events, found an RR for events of 3.28 (95% CI 2.45 to 4.38) comparing top versus bottom third of NP. This effect was 26% lower among the five studies which adjusted for a priori confounders (age, sex, renal function and left ventricular function) and 38% lower when adjusting for publication bias (Egger's p=0.001). CONCLUSION: The unbiased strength of association of NP with prognosis in stable coronary disease is unclear, and there is a lack of reports of clinically useful measures of prediction and discrimination or studies relating NP levels to clinical decision making. The available literature is confined to early phases and is of limited clinical usefulness.