The influence of Late Quaternary climate-change velocity on species endemism.

The effects of climate change on biodiversity should depend in part on climate displacement rate (climate-change velocity) and its interaction with species' capacity to migrate. We estimated Late Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate-change velocity by integrating macroclimatic shifts since the Last Glacial Maximum with topoclimatic gradients. Globally, areas with high velocities were associated with marked absences of small-ranged amphibians, mammals, and birds. The association between endemism and velocity was weakest in the highly vagile birds and strongest in the weakly dispersing amphibians, linking dispersal ability to extinction risk due to climate change. High velocity was also associated with low endemism at regional scales, especially in wet and aseasonal regions. Overall, we show that low-velocity areas are essential refuges for Earth's many small-ranged species.

One hundred questions of importance to the conservation of global biological diversity.

We identified 100 scientific questions that, if answered, would have the greatest impact on conservation practice and policy. Representatives from 21 international organizations, regional sections and working groups of the Society for Conservation Biology, and 12 academics, from all continents except Antarctica, compiled 2291 questions of relevance to conservation of biological diversity worldwide. The questions were gathered from 761 individuals through workshops, email requests, and discussions. Voting by email to short-list questions, followed by a 2-day workshop, was used to derive the final list of 100 questions. Most of the final questions were derived through a process of modification and combination as the workshop progressed. The questions are divided into 12 sections: ecosystem functions and services, climate change, technological change, protected areas, ecosystem management and restoration, terrestrial ecosystems, marine ecosystems, freshwater ecosystems, species management, organizational systems and processes, societal context and change, and impacts of conservation interventions. We anticipate that these questions will help identify new directions for researchers and assist funders in directing funds.

Dispersal, eviction, and conflict in meerkats (Suricata suricatta): an evolutionarily stable strategy model.

Decisions regarding immigration and emigration are crucial to understanding group dynamics in social animals, but dispersal is rarely treated in models of optimal behavior. We developed a model of evolutionarily stable dispersal and eviction strategies for a cooperative mammal, the meerkat Suricata suricatta. Using rank and group size as state variables, we determined state-specific probabilities that subordinate females would disperse and contrasted these with probabilities of eviction by the dominant female, based on the long-term fitness consequences of these behaviors but incorporating the potential for error. We examined whether long-term fitness considerations explain group size regulation in meerkats; whether long-term fitness considerations can lead to conflict between dominant and subordinate female group members; and under what circumstances those conflicts were likely to lead to stability, dispersal, or eviction. Our results indicated that long-term fitness considerations can explain group size regulation in meerkats. Group size distributions expected from predicted dispersal and eviction strategies matched empirical distributions most closely when emigrant survival was approximately that determined from the field study. Long-term fitness considerations may lead to conflicts between dominant and subordinate female meerkats, and eviction is the most likely result of these conflicts. Our model is computationally intensive but provides a general framework for incorporating future changes in the size of multimember cooperative breeding groups.

Pair bonds: arrival synchrony in migratory birds.

Synchronous arrival of pairs of migratory birds at their breeding grounds is important for maintaining pair bonds and is achieved by pairs that remain together all year round. Here we show that arrival is also synchronized in paired individuals of a migratory shorebird, the black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa islandica), even though they winter hundreds of kilometres apart and do not migrate together. The mechanisms required to achieve this synchrony and prevent 'divorce' illustrate the complexity of migratory systems.

Amelioration of biodiversity impacts of genetically modified crops: predicting transient versus long-term effects.

It has been suggested that genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops may benefit biodiversity because spraying of crops may be delayed until later in the growing season, allowing weeds to grow during the early part of the year. This provides an enhanced resource for arthropods, and potentially benefits birds that feed on these. Thus, this technology could enhance biodiversity. Using a review of weed phenologies and a population model, we show that many weeds are unlikely to benefit because spraying is generally delayed insufficiently late in the season to allow most to set seed. The positive effects on biodiversity observed in trials lasting one or two seasons are thus likely to be transient. For one weed of particular significance (Chenopodium album, fat hen) we show that it is unlikely that the positive effects observed could be maintained by inputs of seed during other parts of the rotation. However, we find preliminary evidence that if spraying can be ceased earlier in the season, then a viable population of late-emerging weeds could be maintained. This strategy could benefit weeds in both genetically modified (GM) and non-GM crops, but would probably lead to reduced inputs in GM systems compared with conventional ones.

Kin competition within groups: the offspring depreciation hypothesis.

Where relatives compete for the same resources (kin competition) and each obtains an equal share, this can favour the evolution of elevated dispersal rates, such that most resource competition is among non-relatives. We show that this effect evaporates as among-sibling dominance increases to the point where the allocation of resources is maximally unequal. We restore a kin-competition effect on emigration rates from dominance-ranked family groups by showing that where siblings form queues to inherit the breeding positions, the length of the queue affects the fitness of all individuals by depreciating the rank of subsequent offspring. Incorporating this 'offspring depreciation' effect decreases optimal queue lengths, increases dispersal rates and explains the otherwise paradoxical use of sinks by cooperatively breeding birds in stable environments. The offspring depreciation effect also favours the evolution of small, but consistent, clutch sizes and high reproductive skew, but constrains the evolution of alloparenting.

The buffer effect and large-scale population regulation in migratory birds.

Buffer effects occur when sites vary in quality and fluctuations in population size are mirrored by large changes in animal numbers in poor-quality sites but only small changes in good-quality sites. Hence, the poor sites 'buffer' the good sites, a mechanism that can potentially drive population regulation if there are demographic costs of inhabiting poor sites. Here we show that for a migratory bird this process can apply on a country-wide scale with consequences for both survival and timing of arrival on the breeding grounds (an indicator of reproductive success). The Icelandic population of the black-tailed godwit, Limosa limosa islandica, wintering in Britain has increased fourfold since the 1970s (ref. 5) but rates of change within individual estuaries have varied from zero to sixfold increases. In accordance with the buffer effect, rates of increase are greater on estuaries with low initial numbers, and godwits on these sites have lower prey-intake rates, lower survival rates and arrive later in Iceland than godwits on sites with stable populations. The buffer effect can therefore be a major process influencing large-scale population regulation of migratory species.

Depletion models can predict shorebird distribution at different spatial scales.

Predicting the impact of habitat change on populations requires an understanding of the number of animals that a given area can support. Depletion models enable predictions of the numbers of individuals an area can support from prey density and predator searching efficiency and handling time. Depletion models have been successfully employed to predict patterns of abundance over small spatial scales, but most environmental change occurs over large spatial scales. We test the ability of depletion models to predict abundance at a range of scales with black-tailed godwits, Limosa limosa islandica. From the type II functional response of godwits to their prey, we calculated the handling time and searching efficiency associated with these prey. These were incorporated in a depletion model, together with the density of available prey determined from surveys, in order to predict godwit abundance. Tests of these predictions with Wetland Bird Survey data from the British Trust for Ornithology showed significant correlations between predicted and observed densities at three scales: within mudflats, within estuaries and between estuaries. Depletion models can thus be powerful tools for predicting the population size that can be supported on sites at a range of scales. This greatly enhances our confidence in predictions of the consequences of environmental change.

The depletion of algal beds by geese: a predictive model and test.

The short-term impact of herbivores on plant productivity has been well studied. Demonstrating long-term effects of grazing on plant populations is much more difficult, but knowledge of such long-term effects is vital in understanding plant-herbivore interactions. We address this issue in a relatively simple plant herbivore system involving the dark-bellied brent goose Branta bernicla bernicla and two marine macroalgae, Enteromorpha spp. and Ulva lactuca, on which the geese graze. In 3 years of sampling, goose grazing was responsible for depleting between 23% and 60% of the algae in the autumn, while wave damage caused between 15% and 70% depletion. The degree of depletion in autumn had no effect on the biomass of algae present the following summer, suggesting no long-term consequences of grazing for the population dynamics of the algae. A model simulating the change in mean algal biomass over the autumn and winter, incorporating changes due to depletion by geese, wave action and productivity, successfully described the date at which geese abandoned the algal bed in six different years. These years varied in numbers of geese, strength and timing of storms and initial biomass available. The most important factor determining the date of abandonment of the algal bed was a tradeoff between the timing of storms and the numbers of geese. When storms occur early, most depletion is due to wave action and geese must abandon the bed early, regardless of the numbers grazing there. As the algae become depleted, the geese switch to feeding on saltmarsh, pastures or arable crops. The rate of depletion of algae affects the timing of this movement, and the model presented here enables the switch to be predicted.

Predictions of biodiversity response to genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops.

We simulated the effects of the introduction of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) crops on weed populations and the consequences for seed-eating birds. We predict that weed populations might be reduced to low levels or practically eradicated, depending on the exact form of management. Consequent effects on the local use of fields by birds might be severe, because such reductions represent a major loss of food resources. The regional impacts of GMHT crops are shown to depend on whether the adoption of GMHT crops by farmers covaries with current weed levels.

Population consequences of reproductive decisions.

Behaviour can be a key component of animal population ecology yet the population consequences of behavioural decisions are poorly understood. We conducted a behavioural and demographic study of the bitterling Rhodeus sericeus, a freshwater fish that spawns in live unionid mussels. We used a population model incorporating game theory decisions and measurements of demographic parameters in order to provide predictions of population size among 13 populations of this fish. Our model predicted that the observed behavioural spawning decisions, while maximizing individual fitness, cause a significant 6% reduction in population size compared with randomly distributed spawnings. We discuss our findings in the context of the population consequences of adaptive behaviour.

Optimal floating and queuing strategies: consequences for density dependence and habitat loss.

Field studies of many vertebrates show that some individuals (floaters) do not defend territories even when there is space for them to do so. We show that the evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) for the threshold territory quality at which floating takes place is that which maximizes the size of the floating population (but not the total population, breeding population, or reproductive output). The ESS is solved separately for two assumptions: whether individuals wait to occupy a single territory or multiple territories and whether queuing rules are strict or if all waiting individuals are equally likely to obtain the next territory. The four combinations of these assumptions all give the same evolutionarily stable population size of both floaters and breeders. At the ESS, only territories with expected lifetime reproductive success (LRS) exceeding 1 should be occupied, which introduces a limit to ideal habitat selection. The behavioral decision to float alters the shape of the density-dependent response, reduces the equilibrium population size, and affects the response of the population to habitat loss. Specifically, the floater: breeder ratio is directly related to average breeding habitat quality, and the floater population size will decrease more than the breeding population size if better than average quality habitat is lost.