Finding logic models for sustainable marine development that deliver on social equity.

Sustainable development is often represented as contributing to desirable outcomes across economic, environmental, and social goals, yet policies and interventions attempting to deliver sustainable development often disagree on the order in which these categories of goals should be addressed. In this Essay, we identify and review 5 approaches (called logic models) for sustainable development in ocean systems based on existing policies and interventions and consider the evidence for their contributions to equity-the ultimate goal of sustainable development according to the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Two of the 5 logic models prioritize economic growth and lead to social and environmental benefits, 2 prioritize environmental health as a prerequisite for sustainable economic and social benefits, and the final logic model is community driven and prioritizes social dimensions. Looking towards the 2030 maturation of the SDGs, we will need to understand what models are best suited to deliver on equity gains and prevent future inequities in development and how best to operationalize them.

Collapse and recovery of seafood wholesale prices in time of COVID-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic has spread around the world, disrupting economies, societies and daily life. Early research anticipated significant negative impacts for the globalized seafood supply network. Here, we explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on wholesale prices from five major seafood markets around the world. An anomalies analysis was used to establish a 5-year baseline price for each commodity. Daily price data from 2020 were compared to the baseline to identify collapses (>1.96 SE from baseline) and analyse collapse characteristics (timing, duration and magnitude). Non-uniform price collapses were observed across, and within, the markets analysed. Toyosu (Tokyo) Market experienced price collapses to 51% of commodities, Rungis (Paris) 36%, Mercamadrid (Madrid) 19%, Mercado La Nueva Viga (Mexico City) 35% and the Portland Fish Exchange (Portland, Maine) 32%. Collapse magnitude varied from 11% to 79% of the 5-year average price. Average collapse duration ranged from 13 to 24 weeks with some commodities (4%-22%) remaining collapsed at the end of 2020. For markets where volume data were available, collapses were also noted (59% of commodities in Toyosu, 10% in Mercamadrid and 19% in Portland Fish Exchange); in these cases, the volume collapse was more severe than the related price collapse. To better detect, anticipate and respond to future shocks, we recommend that relevant government agencies conduct comprehensive economic reviews of the COVID-19 pandemic throughout the seafood supply chain, including the outcomes of emergency measures, short- and long-term implications of market volatility and identify areas of supply and labour vulnerabilities.

Enabling conditions for an equitable and sustainable blue economy.

The future of the global ocean economy is currently envisioned as advancing towards a 'blue economy'-socially equitable, environmentally sustainable and economically viable ocean industries1,2. However, tensions exist within sustainable development approaches, arising from differing perspectives framed around natural capital or social equity. Here we show that there are stark differences in outlook on the capacity for establishing a blue economy, and on its potential outcomes, when social conditions and governance capacity-not just resource availability-are considered, and we highlight limits to establishing multiple overlapping industries. This is reflected by an analysis using a fuzzy logic model to integrate indicators from multiple disciplines and to evaluate their current capacity to contribute to establishing equitable, sustainable and viable ocean sectors consistent with a blue economy approach. We find that the key differences in the capacity of regions to achieve a blue economy are not due to available natural resources, but include factors such as national stability, corruption and infrastructure, which can be improved through targeted investments and cross-scale cooperation. Knowledge gaps can be addressed by integrating historical natural and social science information on the drivers and outcomes of resource use and management, thus identifying equitable pathways to establishing or transforming ocean sectors1,3,4. Our results suggest that policymakers must engage researchers and stakeholders to promote evidence-based, collaborative planning that ensures that sectors are chosen carefully, that local benefits are prioritized, and that the blue economy delivers on its social, environmental and economic goals.

Benefits of rebuilding global marine fisheries outweigh costs.

Global marine fisheries are currently underperforming, largely due to overfishing. An analysis of global databases finds that resource rent net of subsidies from rebuilt world fisheries could increase from the current negative US$13 billion to positive US$54 billion per year, resulting in a net gain of US$600 to US$1,400 billion in present value over fifty years after rebuilding. To realize this gain, governments need to implement a rebuilding program at a cost of about US$203 (US$130-US$292) billion in present value. We estimate that it would take just 12 years after rebuilding begins for the benefits to surpass the cost. Even without accounting for the potential boost to recreational fisheries, and ignoring ancillary and non-market values that would likely increase, the potential benefits of rebuilding global fisheries far outweigh the costs.

The spatial expansion and ecological footprint of fisheries (1950 to present).

Using estimates of the primary production required (PPR) to support fisheries catches (a measure of the footprint of fishing), we analyzed the geographical expansion of the global marine fisheries from 1950 to 2005. We used multiple threshold levels of PPR as percentage of local primary production to define 'fisheries exploitation' and applied them to the global dataset of spatially-explicit marine fisheries catches. This approach enabled us to assign exploitation status across a 0.5° latitude/longitude ocean grid system and trace the change in their status over the 56-year time period. This result highlights the global scale expansion in marine fisheries, from the coastal waters off North Atlantic and West Pacific to the waters in the Southern Hemisphere and into the high seas. The southward expansion of fisheries occurred at a rate of almost one degree latitude per year, with the greatest period of expansion occurring in the 1980s and early 1990s. By the mid 1990s, a third of the world's ocean, and two-thirds of continental shelves, were exploited at a level where PPR of fisheries exceed 10% of PP, leaving only unproductive waters of high seas, and relatively inaccessible waters in the Arctic and Antarctic as the last remaining 'frontiers.' The growth in marine fisheries catches for more than half a century was only made possible through exploitation of new fishing grounds. Their rapidly diminishing number indicates a global limit to growth and highlights the urgent need for a transition to sustainable fishing through reduction of PPR.