Insecticides, more than herbicides, land use, and climate, are associated with declines in butterfly species richness and abundance in the American Midwest.

Mounting evidence shows overall insect abundances are in decline globally. Habitat loss, climate change, and pesticides have all been implicated, but their relative effects have never been evaluated in a comprehensive large-scale study. We harmonized 17 years of land use, climate, multiple classes of pesticides, and butterfly survey data across 81 counties in five states in the US Midwest. We find community-wide declines in total butterfly abundance and species richness to be most strongly associated with insecticides in general, and for butterfly species richness the use of neonicotinoid-treated seeds in particular. This included the abundance of the migratory monarch (Danaus plexippus), whose decline is the focus of intensive debate and public concern. Insect declines cannot be understood without comprehensive data on all putative drivers, and the 2015 cessation of neonicotinoid data releases in the US will impede future research.

Economic Assessment of Morel (Morchella spp.) Foraging in Michigan, USA.

Wild-foraged mushrooms represent a natural resource that provides economic value to foragers through both market and nonmarket recreational channels. Despite the importance of non-timber forest resources for sustainable management of forestlands, little attention has been paid to who forages for wild mushrooms, why they choose to forage, where they go, and what economic value is generated. This report draws upon survey data from 78 foragers who are certified to sell their mushrooms and 85 noncertified foraging enthusiasts. Its goal is to understand foraging patterns and values for morels (Morchella spp.) in the State of Michigan (USA). Most foragers spend fewer than 10 days each year foraging, and those who sell their morels are most likely to sell to local restaurants, pubs and bars, and informally to their friends. Certified foragers who choose to sell their morels sell for an average price of $36 per pound ($36/lb) for fresh black or yellow morels. Costs to supply fresh morels ranged widely among the 16 certified sellers who reported full cost details; over 70% of morels were supplied at costs below $30/lb, but some certified sellers incurred costs in the hundreds of dollars per pound. Recreational morel gatherers paid $43 to $335 per trip of foraging morels, with a median value of $93 per trip. Morel foragers also search for other mushrooms with oyster mushrooms (Pleurtous spp.), chanterelles (Cantharellus spp), hen-of the-woods (Grifola frondosa), and chicken-of-the-woods (Laetiporus spp) being the most popular.

Economic Impact of Fluopyram-Amended Seed Treatments to Reduce Soybean Yield Loss Associated with Sudden Death Syndrome.

Soybean (Glycine max) sudden death syndrome (SDS), caused by Fusarium virguliforme, is a key limitation in reaching soybean yield potential, stemming from incomplete disease management through cultural practices and partial host resistance. A fungicidal seed treatment was released in 2014 with the active ingredient fluopyram and was the first chemical management strategy to reduce soybean yield loss stemming from SDS. Although farm level studies have found fluopyram profitable, we were curious to discover whether fluopyram would be beneficial nationally if targeted to soybean fields at risk for SDS yield loss. To estimate economic benefits of fluopyram adoption in SDS at-risk acres, in the light of U.S. public research and outreach from a privately developed product, we applied an economic surplus approach, calculating ex ante net benefits from 2018 to 2032. Through this framework of logistic adoption of fluopyram for alleviation of SDS-associated yield losses, we projected a net benefit of $5.8 billion over 15 years, considering the costs of public seed treatment research and future extension communication. Although the sensitivity analysis indicates that overall net benefits from fluopyram adoption on SDS at-risk acres are highly dependent upon the market price of soybean, the incidence of SDS, the adoption path, and ceiling of this seed treatment, the net benefits still exceeded $407 million in the worst-case scenario.

Long-term research avoids spurious and misleading trends in sustainability attributes of no-till.

Agricultural management recommendations based on short-term studies can produce findings inconsistent with long-term reality. Here, we test the long-term environmental sustainability and profitability of continuous no-till agriculture on yield, soil water availability, and N2 O fluxes. Using a moving window approach, we investigate the development and stability of several attributes of continuous no-till as compared to conventional till agriculture over a 29-year period at a site in the upper Midwest, US. Over a decade is needed to detect the consistent effects of no-till. Both crop yield and soil water availability required 15 years or longer to generate patterns consistent with 29-year trends. Only marginal trends for N2 O fluxes appeared in this period. Relative profitability analysis suggests that after initial implementation, 86% of periods between 10 and 29 years recuperated the initial expense of no-till implementation, with the probability of higher relative profit increasing with longevity. Importantly, statistically significant but misleading short-term trends appeared in more than 20% of the periods examined. Results underscore the importance of decadal and longer studies for revealing consistent dynamics and emergent outcomes of no-till agriculture, shown to be beneficial in the long term.

Cellulosic biofuel contributions to a sustainable energy future: Choices and outcomes.

Cellulosic crops are projected to provide a large fraction of transportation energy needs by mid-century. However, the anticipated land requirements are substantial, which creates a potential for environmental harm if trade-offs are not sufficiently well understood to create appropriately prescriptive policy. Recent empirical findings show that cellulosic bioenergy concerns related to climate mitigation, biodiversity, reactive nitrogen loss, and crop water use can be addressed with appropriate crop, placement, and management choices. In particular, growing native perennial species on marginal lands not currently farmed provides substantial potential for climate mitigation and other benefits.

Farming for Ecosystem Services: An Ecological Approach to Production Agriculture.

A balanced assessment of ecosystem services provided by agriculture requires a systems-level socioecological understanding of related management practices at local to landscape scales. The results from 25 years of observation and experimentation at the Kellogg Biological Station long-term ecological research site reveal services that could be provided by intensive row-crop ecosystems. In addition to high yields, farms could be readily managed to contribute clean water, biocontrol and other biodiversity benefits, climate stabilization, and long-term soil fertility, thereby helping meet society's need for agriculture that is economically and environmentally sustainable. Midwest farmers-especially those with large farms-appear willing to adopt practices that deliver these services in exchange for payments scaled to management complexity and farmstead benefit. Surveyed citizens appear willing to pay farmers for the delivery of specific services, such as cleaner lakes. A new farming for services paradigm in US agriculture seems feasible and could be environmentally significant.

Can dispersed biomass processing protect the environment and cover the bottom line for biofuel?

This paper compares environmental and profitability outcomes for a centralized biorefinery for cellulosic ethanol that does all processing versus a biorefinery linked to a decentralized array of local depots that pretreat biomass into concentrated briquettes. The analysis uses a spatial bioeconomic model that maximizes profit from crop and energy products, subject to the requirement that the biorefinery must be operated at full capacity. The model draws upon biophysical crop input-output coefficients simulated with the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model as well as market input and output prices, spatial transportation costs, ethanol yields from biomass, and biorefinery capital and operational costs. The model was applied to 82 cropping systems simulated across 37 subwatersheds in a 9-county region of southern Michigan in response to ethanol prices simulated to rise from $1.78 to $3.36 per gallon. Results show that the decentralized local biomass processing depots lead to lower profitability but better environmental performance, due to more reliance on perennial grasses than the centralized biorefinery. Simulated technological improvement that reduces the processing cost and increases the ethanol yield of switchgrass by 17% could cause a shift to more processing of switchgrass, with increased profitability and environmental benefits.

Optimal control of soybean aphid in the presence of natural enemies and the implied value of their ecosystem services.

By suppressing pest populations, natural enemies provide an important ecosystem service that maintains the stability of agricultural ecosystems systems and potentially mitigates producers' pest control costs. Integrating natural control services into decisions about pesticide-based control has the potential to significantly improve the economic efficiency of pesticide use, with socially desirable outcomes. Two gaps have hindered the incorporation of natural enemies into pest management decision rules: (1) insufficient knowledge of pest and predator population dynamics and (2) lack of a decision framework for the economic tradeoffs among pest control options. Using a new intra-seasonal, dynamic bioeconomic optimization model, this study assesses how predation by natural enemies contributes to profit-maximizing pest management strategies. The model is applied to the management of the invasive soybean aphid, the most significant serious insect threat to soybean production in North America. The resulting lower bound estimate of the value of natural pest control ecosystem services was estimated at $84 million for the states of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan and Minnesota in 2005.

Probability of cost-effective management of soybean aphid (Hemiptera: Aphididae) in North America.

Soybean aphid, Aphis glycines Matsumura (Hemiptera: Aphididae), is one of the most damaging pests of soybean, Glycine max (L.) Merrill, in the midwestern United States and Canada. We compared three soybean aphid management techniques in three midwestern states (Iowa, Michigan, and Minnesota) for a 3-yr period (2005-2007). Management techniques included an untreated control, an insecticidal seed treatment, an insecticide fungicide tank-mix applied at flowering (i.e., a prophylactic treatment), and an integrated pest management (IPM) treatment (i.e., an insecticide applied based on a weekly scouting and an economic threshold). In 2005 and 2007, multiple locations experienced aphid population levels that exceeded the economic threshold, resulting in the application of the IPM treatment. Regardless of the timing of the application, all insecticide treatments reduced aphid populations compared with the untreated, and all treatments protected yield as compared with the untreated. Treatment efficacy and cost data were combined to compute the probability of a positive economic return. The IPM treatment had the highest probability of cost effectiveness, compared with the prophylactic tank-mix of fungicide and insecticide. The probability of surpassing the gain threshold was highest in the IPM treatment, regardless of the scouting cost assigned to the treatment (ranging from $0.00 to $19.76/ha). Our study further confirms that a single insecticide application can enhance the profitability of soybean production at risk of a soybean aphid outbreak if used within an IPM based system.

Returns to integrated pest management research and outreach for soybean aphid.

Soybean aphid, Aphis glycines Matsumura, is a major invasive pest that has caused substantial yield loss and increased insecticide use in the United States since its discovery in 2000. Using the economic surplus approach, we estimate the economic benefits of U.S. research and outreach for integrated pest management (IPM) of soybean aphid. We calculate ex ante net benefits from adoption of an IPM economic threshold (ET). The ET triggers insecticide application only if the value of predicted yield damage from pest scouting is expected to exceed the cost of pest control. Our research finds that gradual adoption of an ET for soybean aphid management will generate a projected economic net benefit of $1.3 billion, for an internal rate of return of 124%, over the 15 yr since soybean aphid IPM research began in 2003. Lower and upper bound sensitivity analysis brackets the estimated net benefit to U.S. consumers and soybean, Glycine max (L.) Merr., growers in the range of $0.6 to $2.6 billion in 2005 dollars. If a 10% rate of return is attributed to IPM applied research and outreach on soybean aphid, that would leave nearly $800 million to compensate prior activities that contribute to the development and adoption of IPM.

Increasing corn for biofuel production reduces biocontrol services in agricultural landscapes.

Increased demand for corn grain as an ethanol feedstock is altering U.S. agricultural landscapes and the ecosystem services they provide. From 2006 to 2007, corn acreage increased 19% nationally, resulting in reduced crop diversity in many areas. Biological control of insects is an ecosystem service that is strongly influenced by local landscape structure. Here, we estimate the value of natural biological control of the soybean aphid, a major pest in agricultural landscapes, and the economic impacts of reduced biocontrol caused by increased corn production in 4 U.S. states (Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin). For producers who use an integrated pest management strategy including insecticides as needed, natural suppression of soybean aphid in soybean is worth an average of $33 ha(-1). At 2007-2008 prices these services are worth at least $239 million y(-1) in these 4 states. Recent biofuel-driven growth in corn planting results in lower landscape diversity, altering the supply of aphid natural enemies to soybean fields and reducing biocontrol services by 24%. This loss of biocontrol services cost soybean producers in these states an estimated $58 million y(-1) in reduced yield and increased pesticide use. For producers who rely solely on biological control, the value of lost services is much greater. These findings from a single pest in 1 crop suggest that the value of biocontrol services to the U.S. economy may be underestimated. Furthermore, we suggest that development of cellulosic ethanol production processes that use a variety of feedstocks could foster increased diversity in agricultural landscapes and enhance arthropod-mediated ecosystem services.

Hidden health costs of pesticide use in Zimbabwe's smallholder cotton growers.

Balancing the numerous benefits that may accrue from pesticide use on cotton, farmers face health hazards. Pesticide-induced acute symptoms significantly increased the cost-of-illness in a survey of 280 smallholder cotton growers in two districts of Zimbabwe. Cotton growers lost a mean of 180 Zimbabwe dollars in Sanyati and 316 Zimbabwe dollars per year in Chipinge on pesticide-related direct and indirect acute health effects. These values are equivalent to 45% and 83% of annual household pesticide expenditures in the two districts. The time spent recuperating from illnesses attributed to pesticides averaged 2 days in Sanyati and 4 days in Chipinge during the 1998/1999 growing season. These pesticide health cost estimates represent lower bounds only; they omit chronic pesticide health effects as well as suffering and other non-monetary costs. Acute pesticide symptoms were determined in large part by pesticide use practices, notably the lack of protective clothing. Yet many smallholder farmers misunderstood pesticide health hazards, and so did little to protect themselves. Despite the use of simple color codes, 22% of smallholder cotton growers in Sanyati and 58% in Chipinge did not know how the four colored triangles communicated increasing degrees of pesticide toxicity. Better farmer education in exposure averting strategies is needed. Likewise, fuller accounting for hidden health costs in future would allow farmers to make more informed decisions about agricultural pest management.