Assessment of the Risk of Venous Thromboembolism in Nonhospitalized Patients With COVID-19.

Importance: Patients hospitalized with COVID-19 have higher rates of venous thromboembolism (VTE), but the risk and predictors of VTE among individuals with less severe COVID-19 managed in outpatient settings are less well understood. Objectives: To assess the risk of VTE among outpatients with COVID-19 and identify independent predictors of VTE. Design, Setting, and Participants: A retrospective cohort study was conducted at 2 integrated health care delivery systems in Northern and Southern California. Data for this study were obtained from the Kaiser Permanente Virtual Data Warehouse and electronic health records. Participants included nonhospitalized adults aged 18 years or older with COVID-19 diagnosed between January 1, 2020, and January 31, 2021, with follow-up through February 28, 2021. Exposures: Patient demographic and clinical characteristics identified from integrated electronic health records. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the rate per 100 person-years of diagnosed VTE, which was identified using an algorithm based on encounter diagnosis codes and natural language processing. Multivariable regression using a Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model was used to identify variables independently associated with VTE risk. Multiple imputation was used to address missing data. Results: A total of 398 530 outpatients with COVID-19 were identified. The mean (SD) age was 43.8 (15.8) years, 53.7% were women, and 54.3% were of self-reported Hispanic ethnicity. There were 292 (0.1%) VTE events identified over the follow-up period, for an overall rate of 0.26 (95% CI, 0.24-0.30) per 100 person-years. The sharpest increase in VTE risk was observed during the first 30 days after COVID-19 diagnosis (unadjusted rate, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.51-0.67 per 100 person-years vs 0.09; 95% CI, 0.08-0.11 per 100 person-years after 30 days). In multivariable models, the following variables were associated with a higher risk for VTE in the setting of nonhospitalized COVID-19: age 55 to 64 years (HR 1.85 [95% CI, 1.26-2.72]), 65 to 74 years (3.43 [95% CI, 2.18-5.39]), 75 to 84 years (5.46 [95% CI, 3.20-9.34]), greater than or equal to 85 years (6.51 [95% CI, 3.05-13.86]), male gender (1.49 [95% CI, 1.15-1.96]), prior VTE (7.49 [95% CI, 4.29-13.07]), thrombophilia (2.52 [95% CI, 1.04-6.14]), inflammatory bowel disease (2.43 [95% CI, 1.02-5.80]), body mass index 30.0-39.9 (1.57 [95% CI, 1.06-2.34]), and body mass index greater than or equal to 40.0 (3.07 [1.95-4.83]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of outpatients with COVID-19, the absolute risk of VTE was low. Several patient-level factors were associated with higher VTE risk; these findings may help identify subsets of patients with COVID-19 who may benefit from more intensive surveillance or VTE preventive strategies.

COVID-19 and Risk of VTE in Ethnically Diverse Populations.

BACKGROUND: Limited existing data suggest that the novel COVID-19 may increase risk of VTE, but information from large, ethnically diverse populations with appropriate control participants is lacking. RESEARCH QUESTION: Does the rate of VTE among adults hospitalized with COVID-19 differ from matched hospitalized control participants without COVID-19? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study among hospitalized adults with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and hospitalized adults without evidence of COVID-19 matched for age, sex, race or ethnicity, acute illness severity, and month of hospitalization between January 2020 and August 2020 from two integrated health care delivery systems with 36 hospitals. Outcomes included VTE (DVT or pulmonary embolism ascertained using diagnosis codes combined with validated natural language processing algorithms applied to electronic health records) and death resulting from any cause at 30 days. Fine and Gray hazards regression was performed to evaluate the association of COVID-19 with VTE after accounting for competing risk of death and residual differences between groups, as well as to identify predictors of VTE in patients with COVID-19. RESULTS: We identified 6,319 adults with COVID-19 and 6,319 matched adults without COVID-19, with mean ± SD age of 60.0 ± 17.2 years, 46% women, 53.1% Hispanic, 14.6% Asian/Pacific Islander, and 10.3% Black. During 30-day follow-up, 313 validated cases of VTE (160 COVID-19, 153 control participants) and 1,172 deaths (817 in patients with COVID-19, 355 in control participants) occurred. Adults with COVID-19 showed a more than threefold adjusted risk of VTE (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.48; 95% CI, 2.03-5.98) compared with matched control participants. Predictors of VTE in patients with COVID-19 included age ≥ 55 years, Black race, prior VTE, diagnosed sepsis, prior moderate or severe liver disease, BMI ≥ 40 kg/m2, and platelet count > 217 k/µL. INTERPRETATION: Among ethnically diverse hospitalized adults, COVID-19 infection increased the risk of VTE, and selected patient characteristics were associated with higher thromboembolic risk in the setting of COVID-19.

COPD Comorbidity Profiles and 2-Year Trajectory of Acute and Postacute Care Use.

BACKGROUND: Multiple morbidity is the norm in advanced COPD and contributes to high symptom burden and worse outcomes. RESEARCH QUESTION: Can distinct comorbidity profiles be identified and validated in a community-based sample of patients with COPD from a large integrated health care system using a standard, commonly used diagnostic code-based comorbidity index and downstream 2-year health care use data? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we used latent class analysis (LCA) to identify comorbidity profiles in a population-based sample of 91,453 patients with a COPD diagnosis between 2011 and 2015. We included specific comorbid conditions from the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and accounted for variation in underlying prevalence of different comorbidities across the three study sites. Sociodemographic, clinical, and health-care use data were obtained from electronic health records (EHRs). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to compare rates of acute and postacute care use by class. RESULTS: The mean age was 71 ± 11 years, 55% of patients were women, 23% of patients were people of color, and 80% of patients were former or current smokers. LCA identified four distinct comorbidity profiles with progressively higher CCI scores: low morbidity (61%; 1.9 ± 1.4), metabolic renal (21%; 4.7 ± 1.8), cardiovascular (12%; 4.6 ± 1.9), and multimorbidity (7%; 7.5 ± 1.7). In multivariate models, during 2 years of follow-up, a significant, nonoverlapping increase was found in the odds of having any all-cause acute (hospitalizations, observation stays, and ED visits) and postacute care use across the comorbidity profiles. INTERPRETATION: Distinct comorbidity profiles can be identified in patients with COPD using standard EHR-based diagnostic codes, and these profiles are associated with subsequent acute and postacute care use. Population-based risk stratification schemes for end-to-end, comprehensive COPD management should consider integrating comorbidity profiles such as those found in this study.

A reduced transferrin saturation is independently associated with excess morbidity and mortality in older adults with heart failure and incident anemia.

BACKGROUND: Low transferrin saturation (TSAT) or reduced serum ferritin level are suggestive of iron deficiency but the relationship between iron parameters and outcomes has not been systematically evaluated in older adults with heart failure (HF) and anemia. METHODS: We identified a multicenter cohort of adults age ≥ 65 years with HF and incident anemia (hemoglobin <13 g/dL [men] or < 12 g/dL [women]) between 2005 and 2012. Patients were included if ferritin (ng/mL) and TSAT (%) were evaluated within 90 days of incident anemia. HF hospitalizations and all-cause death were ascertained from electronic health records. RESULTS: Among 4103 older adults with HF and incident anemia, 47% had TSAT <20% and the median (IQR) ferritin was 126 (53, 256) ng/mL. In multivariable analyses, compared with TSAT ≥20%, patients with TSAT <20% were at increased risk of HF hospitalization for serum ferritin <100 ng/mL (adjusted HR [aHR] 1.40, 95% CI:1.16-1.70) and 100-300 ng/mL (aHR 1.24, 95% CI:1.01-1.52) but not for a ferritin >300 ng/mL (aHR 0.89, 95% CI 0.65-1.23). In addition, TSAT <20% was independently associated with an increased risk of all-cause death regardless of serum ferritin level (<100 ng/mL: aHR 1.42, 95% CI:1.20-1.68; 100-300 ng/mL: aHR 1.18, 95% CI:1.00-1.38; >300 ng/mL: aHR 1.33, 95% CI:1.06-1.69). CONCLUSIONS: Among older adults with HF and incident anemia who had iron studies tested, nearly half had a TSAT <20%, which was independently associated with higher rates of morbidity and death.

Cardiac valvular abnormalities associated with use and cumulative exposure of cabergoline for hyperprolactinemia: the CATCH study.

BACKGROUND: Whether lower dose cabergoline therapy for hyperprolactinemia increases risk of valvular dysfunction remains controversial. We examined valvular abnormalities among asymptomatic adults with hyperprolactinemia treated with dopamine agonists. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted among adults receiving cabergoline or bromocriptine for > 12 months for hyperprolactinemia and had no cardiac-related symptoms. Cardiac valve morphology and function were assessed from transthoracic echocardiograms at the study visit (except for two participants) with evaluation performed blinded to type and duration of dopamine agonist received. RESULTS: Among 174 participants (mean age 49 ± 13 years, 63% women) without known structural heart disease before starting therapy, 62 received only cabergoline, 63 received only bromocriptine, and 49 received both. Median cabergoline use was 2.8 years in cabergoline only users and 3.2 years for those exposed to both cabergoline and bromocriptine; median bromocriptine use was 5.5 years in bromocriptine only users and 1.1 years for those exposed to both cabergoline and bromocriptine. Compared with bromocriptine only users (17.5%), regurgitation of ≥1 valve was more common for cabergoline only (37.1%, P = 0.02) but not for combined exposure (26.5%, P = 0.26). Compared with bromocriptine only exposure (1.6%), regurgitation of ≥2 valves was more common for cabergoline only (11.3%, P = 0.03) and combined exposure (12.2%, P = 0.04). Cabergoline only users had higher age-sex-adjusted odds for ≥1 valve with grade 2+ regurgitation compared to bromocriptine only users (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 3.2, 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.3-7.5, P = 0.008), but the association for combined exposure to cabergoline and bromocriptine was not significant (aOR 1.7, 95%CI:0.7-4.3, P = 0.26). Compared to bromocriptine only, age-sex-adjusted odds of ≥2 valves with grade 2+ regurgitation were higher for both cabergoline only (aOR 8.4, 95% CI:1.0-72.2, P = 0.05) and combined exposure (aOR 8.8, 95% CI:1.0-75.8, P = 0.05). Cumulative cabergoline exposure > 115 mg was associated with a higher age-sex adjusted odds of ≥2 valves with grade 2+ regurgitation (aOR 9.6, 95%CI:1.1-81.3, P = 0.04) compared to bromocriptine only. CONCLUSIONS: Among community-based adults treated for hyperprolactinemia, cabergoline use and greater cumulative cabergoline exposure were associated with a higher prevalence of primarily mild valvular regurgitation compared with bromocriptine. Research is needed to clarify which patients treated with dopamine agonists may benefit from echocardiographic screening and surveillance.

Comparison of Long-Term Adverse Outcomes in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Having Ablation Versus Antiarrhythmic Medications.

The impact of atrial fibrillation (AF) catheter ablation versus chronic antiarrhythmic therapy alone on clinical outcomes such as death and stroke remains unclear. We compared adverse outcomes for AF ablation versus chronic antiarrhythmic therapy in 1,070 adults with AF treated between 2010 and 2014 in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California and Southern California healthcare delivery systems. Patients who underwent AF catheter ablation were matched to patients treated with only antiarrhythmic medications, based on age, gender, history of heart failure, history of coronary heart disease, history of hypertension, history of diabetes, and high-dimensional propensity score. We compared crude and adjusted rates of death, ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack, intracranial hemorrhage, and hospitalization. The matched cohort of 535 patients treated with AF ablation and 535 treated with antiarrhythmic therapy had a median follow-up of 2.0 (interquartile range 1.1 to 3.5) years. There was no significant difference in adjusted rates of death (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.03 to 1.95), intracranial hemorrhage (adjusted HR 0.17, CI 0.02 to 1.71), ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (adjusted HR 0.53, CI 0.18 to 1.60), and heart failure hospitalization (adjusted HR 0.85, CI 0.34 to 2.12), although there was a trend toward improvement in these outcomes with ablation. However, there was a significantly increased risk of all-cause hospitalization following ablation (adjusted HR 1.60, CI 1.25 to 2.05). In a contemporary, multicenter, propensity-matched observational cohort, AF ablation was not significantly associated with death, intracranial hemorrhage, ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack, or heart failure hospitalization, but was associated with a higher rate of all cause-hospitalization.

Incident anaemia in older adults with heart failure: rate, aetiology, and association with outcomes.

AIMS: Limited data exist on the epidemiology, evaluation, and prognosis of otherwise unexplained anaemia of the elderly in heart failure (HF). Thus, we aimed to determine the incidence of anaemia, to characterize diagnostic testing patterns for potentially reversible causes of anaemia, and to evaluate the independent association between incident anaemia and long-term morbidity and mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: Within the Cardiovascular Research Network (CVRN), we identified adults age ≥65 years with diagnosed HF between 2005 and 2012 and no anaemia at entry. Incident anaemia was defined using World Health Organization (WHO) haemoglobin thresholds (<13.0 g/dL in men; <12.0 g/dL in women). All-cause death and hospitalizations for HF and any cause were identified from electronic health records. Among 38 826 older HF patients, 22 163 (57.1%) developed incident anaemia over a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 2.9 (1.2-5.6) years. The crude rate [95% confidence interval (CI)] per 100 person-years of incident anaemia was 26.4 (95% CI 26.0-26.7) and was higher for preserved ejection fraction (EF) [29.2 (95% CI 28.6-29.8)] compared with borderline EF [26.5 (95% CI 25.4-27.7)] or reduced EF [26.6 (95% CI 25.8-27.4)]. Iron indices, vitamin B12 level, and thyroid testing were performed in 20.9%, 14.9%, and 40.2% of patients, respectively. Reduced iron stores, vitamin B12 deficiency, and/or hypothyroidism were present in 29.7%, 3.2%, and 18.6% of tested patients, respectively. In multivariable analyses, incident anaemia was associated with excess mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 2.14, 95% CI 2.07-2.22] as well as hospitalization for HF (HR 1.80, 95% CI 1.72-1.88) and any cause (HR 1.77, 95% CI 1.72-1.83). CONCLUSION: Among older adults with HF, incident anaemia is common and independently associated with substantially increased risks of morbidity and mortality. Additional research is necessary to clarify the value of routine evaluation and treatment of potentially reversible causes of anaemia.

Long-term Outcomes Associated With Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillator in Adults With Chronic Kidney Disease.

Importance: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is common in adults with heart failure and is associated with an increased risk of sudden cardiac death. Randomized trials of participants without CKD have demonstrated that implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) decrease the risk of arrhythmic death in selected patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) heart failure. However, whether ICDs improve clinical outcomes in patients with CKD is not well elucidated. Objective: To examine the association of primary prevention ICDs with risk of death and hospitalization in a community-based population of potentially ICD-eligible patients who had heart failure with reduced LVEF and CKD. Design, Settings, and Participants: This noninterventional cohort study included adults with heart failure and an LVEF of 40% or less and measures of serum creatinine levels available from January 1, 2005, through December 31, 2012, who were enrolled in 4 Kaiser Permanente health care delivery systems. Chronic kidney disease was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2. Patients who received and did not receive an ICD were matched (1:3) on CKD status, age, and high-dimensional propensity score to receive an ICD. Follow-up was completed on December 31, 2013. Data were analyzed from 2015 to 2017. Exposures: Placement of an ICD. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause death, hospitalizations due to heart failure, and any-cause hospitalizations. Results: A total of 5877 matched eligible adults with CKD (1556 with an ICD and 4321 without an ICD) were identified (4049 men [68.9%] and 1828 women [31.1%]; mean [SD] age, 72.9 [8.2] years). In models adjusted for demographics, comorbidity, and cardiovascular medication use, no difference was found in all-cause mortality between patients with CKD in the ICD vs non-ICD groups (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.87-1.06). However, ICD placement was associated with increased risk of subsequent hospitalization due to heart failure (adjusted relative risk, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.33-1.60) and any-cause hospitalization (adjusted relative risk, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.20-1.30) among patients with CKD. Conclusions and Relevance: In a large, contemporary, noninterventional study of community-based patients with heart failure and CKD, ICD placement was not significantly associated with improved survival but was associated with increased risk for subsequent hospitalization due to heart failure and all-cause hospitalization. The potential risks and benefits of ICDs should be carefully considered in patients with heart failure and CKD.

Contemporary Procedural Complications, Hospitalizations, and Emergency Visits After Catheter Ablation for Atrial Fibrillation.

Contemporary data on complications and resource utilization after atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation are limited. We evaluated rates and risk factors for procedural complication, rehospitalization, and emergency department visits after AF ablation. We identified all adult patients who underwent isolated AF ablation between 2010 and June 2014 in 2 large integrated health-care delivery systems and evaluated rates of acute inpatient complication, 30-day, and 1-year readmission and emergency evaluation. We used multivariable logistic regression to identify predictors of procedural complications, 30-day readmission, or 30-day emergency department evaluation. In 811 AF ablation patients, procedural complications occurred in 2.5% of patients, 9.7% of patients were rehospitalized within 30 days, and 19.1% of patients had an emergency visit within 30 days. At 1 year after AF ablation, 28.9% of patients were readmitted, with 18% of patients readmitted for AF or atrial flutter. At 1 year, 44.5% of patients were seen in an emergency department, with 37.1% related to AF or atrial flutter. Vascular complications and perforation or tamponade were the most common complications, and Hispanic ethnicity, mitral or aortic valvular disease, and diabetes mellitus were the strongest risk factors for adverse outcomes at 30 days after AF ablation. Contemporary rates of acute complication and 1-year readmission after AF ablation have markedly decreased compared with previous community-based studies.

Short-Term Outcomes and Factors Associated With Adverse Events Among Adults Discharged From the Emergency Department After Treatment for Acute Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Although 80% of patients with heart failure seen in the emergency department (ED) are admitted, less is known about short-term outcomes and demand for services among discharged patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: We examined adult members of a large integrated delivery system who visited an ED for acute heart failure and were discharged from January 1, 2013, through September 30, 2014. The primary outcome was a composite of repeat ED visit, hospital admission, or death within 7 days of discharge. We identified multivariable baseline patient-, provider-, and facility-level factors associated with adverse outcomes within 7 days of ED discharge using logistic regression. Among 7614 patients, mean age was 77.2 years, 51.9% were women, and 28.4% were people of color. Within 7 days of discharge, 75% had outpatient follow-up (clinic, telephone, or e-mail), 7.1% had an ED revisit, 4.7% were hospitalized, and 1.2% died. Patients who met the primary outcome were more likely to be older, smokers, have a history of hemorrhagic stroke, hypothyroidism, and dementia, and less likely to be treated in a facility with an observation unit. In multivariable analysis, higher comorbidity scores and history of smoking were associated with a higher odds of the primary outcome, whereas treatment in a facility with an observation unit and presence of outpatient follow-up within 7 days were associated with a lower odds. CONCLUSIONS: We identified selected hospital and patient characteristics associated with short-term adverse outcomes. Further understanding of these factors may optimize safe outpatient management in ED-treated patients with heart failure.

Treatment Effectiveness in Heart Failure with Comorbidity: Lung Disease and Kidney Disease.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the clinical effectiveness of beta-blocker therapy in individuals with heart failure (HF) and chronic lung disease and of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACE-Is) and angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs) in individuals with HF and chronic kidney disease. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Community. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals with HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) or HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). METHODS: We undertook separate new-user cohort studies to assess the effectiveness of beta-blocker therapy in treating HF and chronic lung disease and ACE-Is and ARBs in treating HF and chronic kidney disease (CKD). Individuals with a chronic lung disease diagnosis were included in the group with HF and chronic lung disease (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, codes 490-496, 518). Individuals with an estimated glomerular filtration rate less than 60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 were included in the group with HF and CKD. The clinical outcomes of interest were death from any cause, hospitalization for HF, and hospitalization for any reason. We fitted pooled logistic marginal structural models using inverse probability weighting, stratified according to HF type. RESULTS: For individuals with HFrEF with chronic lung disease, beta-blocker therapy was protective against death (relative risk (RR) = 0.58, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.44-0.77) and hospitalization for HF (RR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.60-1.00). For those with HFpEF, no statistically significant associations between beta-blocker therapy use and any of the outcomes were observed. We found ACE-I and ARB use to be protective against all three outcomes of interest in individuals with HFrEF (death from any cause: RR = 0.60, 95% 0.40-0.91; hospitalization for HF: RR = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.28-0.67; hospitalization for any reason: RR = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.45-0.89, respectively) and those with HFpEF (death from any cause: RR = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.33-0.81; hospitalization for HF: RR = 0.35, 95% CI = 0.18-0.68; hospitalization for any reason: RR = 0.67, 95% CI = 0.47-0.95). CONCLUSION: Large observational studies may allow for identification of important subgroups of individuals with HF that might benefit from existing treatment approaches. Our findings may also better inform the design of more-definitive future observational studies and randomized trials.

Kidney function and appropriateness of device therapies in adults with implantable cardioverter defibrillators.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have higher risk of sudden cardiac death; however, they may not receive implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs), in part due to higher risk of complications. We evaluated whether CKD is associated with greater risk of device-delivered shocks/antitachycardia pacing (ATP) therapies among patients receiving a primary prevention ICD. METHODS: We studied participants in the observational Cardiovascular Research Network Longitudinal Study of Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillators. CKD was defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m2. Outcomes included all delivered shocks/ATPs therapies and type of shock/ATP therapies (inappropriate or appropriate, determined by physician adjudication) within the 3 years. We evaluated the associations between CKD and time to first device therapy, burden of device therapy, and inappropriate versus appropriate device therapy, adjusting for demographics, comorbidity, laboratory values and medication use. RESULTS: Among 2161 participants, 1066 (49.3%) had CKD (eGFR 44±11 mL/min/1.73 m2) at ICD implantation. During mean of 2.26±0.89 years, 9.8% and 18.5% of participants had at least one inappropriate and appropriate shock/ATP therapies, respectively. CKD was not associated with time to first shock/ATP therapies (adjusted HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.73 to 1.05), overall burden of shock/ATP therapies (adjusted relative rate 0.93, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.17) or inappropriate versus appropriate shock/ATP therapies (adjusted relative risk 0.88, 95% CI 0.68 to 1.14) compared with not having CKD. CONCLUSIONS: In adults receiving a primary prevention ICD, mild-to-moderate CKD was not associated with the timing, burden or appropriateness of subsequent device therapy. Potential concern for inappropriate ICD-delivered therapies should not preclude ICDs among eligible patients with CKD.

Accuracy of the Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Risk Equation in a Large Contemporary, Multiethnic Population.

BACKGROUND: The accuracy of the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) Pooled Cohort Risk Equation for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events in contemporary and ethnically diverse populations is not well understood. OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the 2013 ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Risk Equation within a large, multiethnic population in clinical care. METHODS: The target population for consideration of cholesterol-lowering therapy in a large, integrated health care delivery system population was identified in 2008 and followed up through 2013. The main analyses excluded those with known ASCVD, diabetes mellitus, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels <70 or ≥190 mg/dl, prior lipid-lowering therapy use, or incomplete 5-year follow-up. Patient characteristics were obtained from electronic medical records, and ASCVD events were ascertained by using validated algorithms for hospitalization databases and death certificates. We compared predicted versus observed 5-year ASCVD risk, overall and according to sex and race/ethnicity. We additionally examined predicted versus observed risk in patients with diabetes mellitus. RESULTS: Among 307,591 eligible adults without diabetes between 40 and 75 years of age, 22,283 were black, 52,917 were Asian/Pacific Islander, and 18,745 were Hispanic. We observed 2,061 ASCVD events during 1,515,142 person-years. In each 5-year predicted ASCVD risk category, observed 5-year ASCVD risk was substantially lower: 0.20% for predicted risk <2.50%; 0.65% for predicted risk 2.50% to <3.75%; 0.90% for predicted risk 3.75% to <5.00%; and 1.85% for predicted risk ≥5.00% (C statistic: 0.74). Similar ASCVD risk overestimation and poor calibration with moderate discrimination (C statistic: 0.68 to 0.74) were observed in sex, racial/ethnic, and socioeconomic status subgroups, and in sensitivity analyses among patients receiving statins for primary prevention. Calibration among 4,242 eligible adults with diabetes was improved, but discrimination was worse (C statistic: 0.64). CONCLUSIONS: In a large, contemporary "real-world" population, the ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Risk Equation substantially overestimated actual 5-year risk in adults without diabetes, overall and across sociodemographic subgroups.

Visit-to-visit variability of blood pressure and death, end-stage renal disease, and cardiovascular events in patients with chronic kidney disease.

OBJECTIVES: Visit-to-visit variability of blood pressure (VVV of BP) is an important independent risk factor for premature death and cardiovascular events, but relatively little is known about this phenomenon in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) not yet on dialysis. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study in a community-based cohort of 114 900 adults with CKD stages 3-4 (estimated glomerular filtration rate 15-59 ml/min per 1.73 m). We hypothesized that VVV of BP would be independently associated with higher risks of death, incident treated end-stage renal disease, and cardiovascular events. We defined systolic VVV of BP using three metrics: coefficient of variation, standard deviation of the mean SBP, and average real variability. RESULTS: The highest versus the lowest quintile of the coefficient of variation was associated with higher adjusted rates of death (hazard ratio 1.22; 95% confidence interval 1.11-1.34) and hemorrhagic stroke (hazard ratio 1.91; confidence interval 1.36-2.68). VVV of BP was inconsistently associated with heart failure, and was not significantly associated with acute coronary syndrome and ischemic stroke. Results were similar when using the other two metrics of VVV of BP. VVV of BP had inconsistent associations with end-stage renal disease, perhaps because of the relatively low incidences of this outcome. CONCLUSION: Higher VVV of BP is independently associated with higher rates of death and hemorrhagic stroke in patients with moderate to advanced CKD not yet on dialysis.