COVID-19 mortality sentinel surveillance at a tertiary referral hospital in Lusaka, Zambia, 2020-2021.

Deaths from COVID-19 likely exceeded official statistics in Zambia because of limited testing and incomplete death registration. We describe a sentinel COVID-19 mortality surveillance system in Lusaka, Zambia. We analyzed surveillance data on deceased persons of all ages undergoing verbal autopsy (VA) and COVID-19 testing at the University Teaching Hospital (UTH) mortuary in Lusaka, Zambia, from April 2020 through August 2021. VA was done by surveillance officers for community deaths and in-patient deaths that occurred <48 hours after admission. A standardized questionnaire about the circumstances proximal to death was used, with a probable cause of death assigned by a validated computer algorithm. Nasopharyngeal specimens from deceased persons were tested for COVID-19 using polymerase chain reaction and rapid diagnostic tests. We analyzed the cause of death by COVID-19 test results. Of 12,919 deceased persons at UTH mortuary during the study period, 5,555 (43.0%) had a VA and COVID-19 test postmortem, of which 79.7% were community deaths. Overall, 278 (5.0%) deceased persons tested COVID-19 positive; 7.1% during waves versus 1.4% during nonwave periods. Most (72.3%) deceased persons testing COVID-19 positive reportedly had fever, cough, and/or dyspnea and most (73.5%) reportedly had an antemortem COVID-19 test. Common causes of death for those testing COVID-19 positive included acute cardiac disease (18.3%), respiratory tract infections (16.5%), other types of cardiac diseases (12.9%), and stroke (7.2%). A notable portion of deceased persons at a sentinel site in Lusaka tested COVID-19 positive during waves, supporting the notion that deaths from COVID-19 might have been undercounted in Zambia. Many had displayed classic COVID-19 symptoms and been tested before death yet nevertheless died in the community, potentially indicating strained medical services during waves. The high proportion of cardiovascular diseases deaths might reflect the hypercoagulable state during severe COVID-19. Early supportive treatment and availability of antivirals might lessen future mortality.

HIV prevalence in transgender populations and cisgender men who have sex with men in sub-Saharan Africa 2010-2022: a meta-analysis.

Introduction: The Global AIDS Strategy 2021-2026 calls for equitable and equal access to HIV prevention and treatment programmes for all populations to reduce HIV incidence and end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Transgender populations (TGP), including transmen (TGM) and transwomen (TGW) are populations that have been marginalised and are at high risk of HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Limited surveillance data on HIV among TGP are available in the region to guide programmatic responses and policymaking. Surveillance data on cisgender men who have sex with men (cis-MSM) are comparatively abundant and may be used to infer TGP HIV prevalence. Methods: Data from key population surveys conducted in SSA between 2010-2022 were identified from existing databases and survey reports. Studies that collected HIV prevalence on both TGP and cis-MSM populations were analysed in a random effect meta-analysis to estimate the ratio of cis-MSM:TGW HIV prevalence. Results: Eighteen studies were identified encompassing 8,052 TGW and 19,492 cis-MSM. TGW HIV prevalence ranged from 0-71.6% and cis-MSM HIV prevalence from 0.14-55.7%. HIV prevalence in TGW was 50% higher than in cis-MSM (prevalence ratio (PR) 1.50 95% CI 1.26-1.79). TGW HIV prevalence was highly correlated with year/province-matched cis-MSM HIV prevalence (R2 = 0.62), but poorly correlated with year/province-matched total population HIV prevalence (R2 = 0.1). Five TGM HIV prevalence estimates were identified ranging from 1-24%. Insufficient TGM data were available to estimate cis-MSM:TGM HIV prevalence ratios. Conclusion: Transgender women experience a significantly greater HIV burden than cis-MSM in SSA. Bio-behavioural surveys designed and powered to measure determinants of HIV infection, treatment coverage, and risk behaviours among transgender populations, distinct from cis-MSM, will improve understanding of HIV risk and vulnerabilities among TGP and support improved programmes.

SARS-CoV-2 Mortality Surveillance among Community Deaths brought to University Teaching Hospital Mortuary in Lusaka, Zambia, 2020

IntroductionDuring March-December 2020, Zambia recorded 20,725 confirmed COVID-19 cases, with the first wave peaking between July and August. Of the 388 COVID-19-related deaths occurring nationwide, most occurred in the community. We report findings from COVID-19 mortality surveillance among community deaths brought to the University Teaching Hospital (UTH) mortuary in Lusaka. MethodsIn Zambia, when a person dies in the community, and is brought into a health facility mortuary, they are recorded as brought in dead (BID). The UTH mortuary accepts persons BID for Lusaka District, the most populated district in Zambia. We analyzed data for persons BID at UTH during 2020. We analyzed two data sources: weekly SARS-CoV-2 test results for persons BID and monthly all-cause mortality numbers among persons BID. For all-cause mortality among persons BID, monthly deaths during 2020 that were above the upper bound of the 95% confidence interval for the historic mean (2017-2019) were considered significant. Spearmans rank test was used to correlate the overall percent positivity in Zambia with all-cause mortality and SARS-CoV-2 testing among persons BID at UTH mortuary. ResultsDuring 2020, 7,756 persons were BID at UTH (monthly range 556-810). SARS-CoV-2 testing began in April 2020, and through December 3,131 (51.9%) of 6,022 persons BID were tested. Of these, 212 (6.8%) were SARS-CoV-2 positive with weekly percent test positivity ranging from 0-32%, with the highest positivity occurring during July 2020. There were 1,139 excess persons BID from all causes at UTH mortuary in 2020 compared to the 2017-2019 mean. The monthly number of persons BID from all causes was above the upper bound of the 95% confidence interval during June-September and December. ConclusionIncreases in all-cause mortality and SARS-CoV-2 test positivity among persons BID at UTH mortuary corresponded with the first peak of the COVID-19 epidemic in June and August 2020, indicating possible increased mortality related to the COVID-19 epidemic in Zambia. Combining all-cause mortality and SARS-CoV-2 testing for persons BID provides useful information about the severity of the epidemic in Lusaka and should be implemented throughout Zambia.

Increase in Antiretroviral Therapy Enrollment Among Persons with HIV Infection During the Lusaka HIV Treatment Surge - Lusaka Province, Zambia, January 2018-June 2019.

Within Zambia, a landlocked country in southern-central Africa, the highest prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is in Lusaka Province (population 3.2 million), where approximately 340,000 persons are estimated to be infected (1). The 2016 Zambia Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (ZAMPHIA) estimated the adult HIV prevalence in Lusaka Province to be 15.7%, with a 62.7% viral load suppression rate (HIV-1 RNA <1,000 copies/mL) (2). ZAMPHIA results highlighted remaining treatment gaps in Zambia overall and by subpopulation. In January 2018, Zambia launched the Lusaka Province HIV Treatment Surge (Surge project) to increase enrollment of persons with HIV infection onto antiretroviral therapy (ART). The Zambia Ministry of Health (MoH), CDC, and partners analyzed the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) Monitoring and Evaluation Reporting data set to assess the effectiveness of the first 18 months of the Surge project (January 2018-June 2019). During this period, approximately 100,000 persons with positive test results for HIV began ART. These new ART clients were more likely to be persons aged 15-24 years. In addition, the number of persons with documented viral load suppression doubled from 66,109 to 134,046. Lessons learned from the Surge project, including collaborative leadership, efforts to improve facility-level performance, and innovative strategies to disseminate successful practices, could increase HIV treatment rates in other high-prevalence settings.

A pragmatic approach to monitor and evaluate implementation and impact of differentiated ART delivery for global and national stakeholders.

INTRODUCTION: The World Health Organization's (WHO) recommendation of "Treat All" has accelerated the call for differentiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) delivery, a method of care that efficiently uses limited resources to increase access to HIV treatment. WHO has further recommended that stable individuals on ART receive refills every 3 to 6 months and attend clinical visits every 3 to 6 months. However, there is not yet consensus on how to ensure that the quality of services is maintained as countries strive to meet these standards. This commentary responds to this gap by defining a pragmatic approach to the monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of the scale up of differentiated ART delivery for global and national stakeholders. DISCUSSION: Programme managers need to demonstrate that the scale up of differentiated ART delivery is achieving the desired effectiveness and efficiency outcomes to justify continued support by national and global stakeholders. To achieve this goal, the two existing global WHO HIV treatment indicators of ART retention and viral suppression should be augmented with two broad aggregate measures. The addition of indicators measuring the frequency of (1) clinical and (2) refill visits by PLHIV per year will allow evaluation of the pace of scale up while monitoring its overall effect on the quality and efficiency of services. The combination of these four routinely collected aggregate indicators will also facilitate the comparison of outcomes among facilities, regions or countries implementing different models of ART delivery. Enhanced monitoring or additional assessments will be required to answer other critical questions on the process of implementation, acceptability, effectiveness and efficiency. CONCLUSIONS: These proposed outcomes are useful markers for the effectiveness and efficiency of the health system's attempts to deliver quality treatment to those who need it-and still reserve as much of the available resource pool as possible for other key elements of the HIV response.