Differences in virus and immune dynamics for SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron infections by age and vaccination histories.

Vaccination against COVID-19 was integral to controlling the pandemic that persisted with the continuous emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants. Using a mathematical model describing SARS-CoV-2 within-host infection dynamics, we estimate differences in virus and immunity due to factors of infecting variant, age, and vaccination history (vaccination brand, number of doses and time since vaccination). We fit our model in a Bayesian framework to upper respiratory tract viral load measurements obtained from cases of Delta and Omicron infections in Singapore, of whom the majority only had one nasopharyngeal swab measurement. With this dataset, we are able to recreate similar trends in URT virus dynamics observed in past within-host modelling studies fitted to longitudinal patient data.We found that Omicron had higher R0,within values than Delta, indicating greater initial cell-to-cell spread of infection within the host. Moreover, heterogeneities in infection dynamics across patient subgroups could be recreated by fitting immunity-related parameters as vaccination history-specific, with or without age modification. Our model results are consistent with the notion of immunosenescence in SARS-CoV-2 infection in elderly individuals, and the issue of waning immunity with increased time since last vaccination. Lastly, vaccination was not found to subdue virus dynamics in Omicron infections as well as it had for Delta infections.This study provides insight into the influence of vaccine-elicited immunity on SARS-CoV-2 within-host dynamics, and the interplay between age and vaccination history. Furthermore, it demonstrates the need to disentangle host factors and changes in pathogen to discern factors influencing virus dynamics. Finally, this work demonstrates a way forward in the study of within-host virus dynamics, by use of viral load datasets including a large number of patients without repeated measurements.

Risks of SARS-CoV-2 JN.1 infection and COVID-19 associated emergency-department (ED) visits/hospitalizations following updated boosters and prior infection: a population-based cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Data on protection afforded by updated COVID-19 vaccines (bivalent/XBB 1.5 monovalent) against the emergent JN.1 variant remains limited. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective population-based cohort study amongst all boosted Singaporeans aged ≥18 years during a COVID-19 wave predominantly driven by JN.1, from 26th November 2023 to 13th January 2024. Multivariable Cox regression was utilised to assess risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 associated emergency-department (ED) visits/hospitalizations, stratified by vaccination status/prior infection; with individuals last boosted ≥1 year utilized as the reference category. Vaccination and infection status were classified using national registries. RESULTS: 3,086,562 boosted adult Singaporeans were included in the study population, accounting for 146,863,476 person-days of observation. During the JN.1 outbreak, 28,160 SARS-CoV-2 infections were recorded, with 2,926 hospitalizations and 3,747 ED-visits. Compared with individuals last boosted ≥1 year prior with ancestral monovalent vaccines, receipt of an updated XBB.1.5 booster 8-120 days prior was associated with lower risk of JN.1 infection (adjusted-hazard-ratio, aHR = 0.59[0.52-0.66]), COVID-19 associated ED-visits (aHR = 0.50[0.34-0.73]) and hospitalizations(aHR = 0.58[0.37-0.91]), while receipt of a bivalent booster 121-365 days prior was associated with lower risk of JN.1 infection (aHR = 0.92[0.88-0.95]) and ED-visits (aHR = 0.80[0.70-0.90]). Lower risk of COVID-19 hospitalization during the JN.1 outbreak (aHR = 0.57[0.33-0.97]) was still observed following receipt of an updated XBB.1.5 booster 8-120 days prior, even when analysis was restricted to previously infected individuals. CONCLUSION: Recent receipt of updated boosters conferred protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection and ED-visits/hospitalization during a JN.1 variant wave, in both previously infected and uninfected individuals. Annual booster doses confer protection during COVID-19 endemicity.

A Nationwide Cohort Study of Delta and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 Outcomes in Vaccinated Individuals With Chronic Lung Disease.

BACKGROUND: Individuals with chronic lung disease (CLD) are more susceptible to respiratory viral infections; however, significant heterogeneity exists in the literature on CLD and COVID-19 outcomes. Data are lacking on outcomes with newer variants (eg, Omicron) and in vaccinated and boosted populations. RESEARCH QUESTION: What are the outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection in individuals with CLD during Delta and Omicron transmission in a highly vaccinated and boosted population-based cohort? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Outcomes of Delta and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infection in a highly vaccinated and boosted cohort of adult Singaporeans with CLD (including asthma, COPD, bronchiectasis, and pulmonary fibrosis) were contrasted against matched population control participants. Calendar time-scale Cox regressions were used to compare risk of infection, COVID-19-related hospitalizations, and severe COVID-19 disease, adjusting for sociodemographic factors and comorbidities. RESULTS: Overall, 68,782 individual patients with CLD and 534,364 matched population control participants were included. By the end of the Omicron wave, 92.7% of patients with CLD were boosted. Compared with control participants, patients with CLD showed higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19-related hospitalization, and severe COVID-19 during both the Delta wave (infection: adjusted hazards ratio [aHR], 1.22 [95% CI, 1.17-1.28]; hospitalization: aHR, 1.76 [95% CI, 1.61-1.92]; severe COVID-19: aHR, 1.75 [95% CI, 1.50-2.05]) and Omicron wave (infection: aHR, 1.15 [95% CI, 1.14-1.17]; hospitalization: aHR, 1.82 [95% CI, 1.74-1.91]; severe COVID-19: aHR, 2.39 [95% CI, 2.18-2.63]). During Omicron, significantly higher risk of infection, hospitalization, and severe COVID-19 was observed among patients with asthma (severe COVID-19: aHR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.10-1.55]) and COPD (severe COVID-19: aHR, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.12-1.66]) compared with control participants. Severe exacerbation (requiring hospitalization) in the preceding year was associated with higher risk of poorer outcomes (Delta severe COVID-19: aHR, 9.84 [95% CI, 6.33-15.28]; Omicron severe COVID-19: aHR, 19.22 [95% CI, 15.35-24.06]). Risk was attenuated in the boosted group, with numerically lower HRs against hospitalization and severe COVID-19 in the four-dose group compared with the three-dose group. INTERPRETATION: Increased risk of COVID-19-related hospitalization and severe COVID-19 was observed among patients with CLD compared with matched population control participants during Delta and Omicron predominance. Boosting attenuated serious COVID-19 outcomes.

Dengue versus COVID-19: comparing the incidence of cardiovascular, neuropsychiatric and autoimmune complications.

BACKGROUND: While persistence of chronic symptoms following dengue infection has been documented in small prospective cohorts, population-based studies are limited. The post-acute risk of new-incident multi-systemic complications following dengue infection was contrasted against that following severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in a multi-ethnic adult Asian population. METHODS: National testing and healthcare claims that databases in Singapore were utilized to build a retrospective population-based adult cohort with laboratory-confirmed infection during overlapping waves of SARS-CoV-2 and dengue transmission (1 July 2021 to 31 October 2022). Risks of new-incident cardiovascular/neuropsychiatric/autoimmune complications 31-300 days of post-dengue infection, contrasted with SARS-CoV-2 infection, were estimated using Cox regression with overlap weights. Risks were reported in terms of adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) and excess burden per 1000 persons. RESULTS: 11 707 dengue-infected individuals and 1 248 326 contemporaneous coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases were included; the majority had mild initial infection not requiring hospitalization. Amongst dengue-infected individuals, there was 21% [aHR = 1.21 (1.06-1.38)] increased risk of any sequelae, with 55% [aHR = 1.55 (1.27-1.89)] increased risk of cardiovascular sequelae. Specifically, increased risk of dysrhythmias [aHR = 1.79(1.35-2.37)], ischemic heart disease [aHR = 1.45(1.12-1.89)], other cardiac disorders [aHR = 2.21(1.54-3.16)] and thrombotic disorders [aHR = 2.55(1.50-4.35)] was noted. Elevated risk of individual neuropsychiatric sequelae, including cerebrovascular disorders [aHR = 1.49(1.09-2.13)], cognition/memory disorders [aHR = 2.13(1.55-2.93)], extrapyramidal/movement disorders [aHR = 1.98(1.33-2.94)] and anxiety disorders [aHR = 1.61(1.01-2.56)], was observed in dengue-infected individuals compared to COVID-19 cases. Elevated risks of post-acute sequelae in dengue survivors were observed when contrasted against COVID-19 survivors infected during Delta/Omicron predominance, as well as across vaccination strata. CONCLUSION: Increased risk of post-acute cardiovascular/neuropsychiatric complications was observed in dengue survivors, when contrasted against COVID-19 survivors infected during Delta/Omicron predominance.

Long-term cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and thrombotic complications after SARS-CoV-2-Omicron infection: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Evidence suggests that some COVID-19 survivors experience a wide range of post-COVID-19 sequelae; however, the majority of studies were conducted prior to emergence of the milder Omicron variant. We examined the post-acute risk of new incident cardiovascular complications after SARS-CoV-2 infection in a multi-ethnic Asian population, during Omicron predominance. METHODS: This cohort study used national testing and healthcare claims databases in Singapore to build a cohort of individuals with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection during Omicron BA.1/2 transmission, and a contemporaneous test-negative group. Participants in both groups were followed up for a median of 300 days. We estimated risks of new-incident cardiovascular complications using doubly robust competing-risks survival analysis. Risks were reported using two measures: hazard ratio (HR) and excess burden (EB). RESULTS: We included 375,903 test-positive, infected individuals (mean age 48 years) and 619,379 test-negative controls (mean age 47 years). The majority (97.5%, 366,593/375,903) of infected individuals had mild infection not requiring hospitalisation. There was no overall increased risk of new-incident cardiovascular complications, (adjusted-hazards-ratio, aHR = 1.01 [0.97-1.07]) amongst COVID-19 survivors when compared against test-negatives. A modestly increased risk and excess burden of dysrhythmias amongst COVID-19 survivors (aHR=1.09 [1.01- 1.19]) was observed. Risk and burdens of new-incident cardiovascular complications predominantly accrued in hospitalised (aHR=5.52 [3.76-8.10]) and severe (aHR=5.52 [3.76-8.10]) COVID-19 cases. CONCLUSIONS: No significantly increased overall risk of any cardiovascular complication was observed in the 300 days following COVID-19 infection during the Omicron-dominant period when compared against test-negatives, with the exception of a small increased occurrence of dysrhythmias.

Healthcare burden of cognitive impairment: Evidence from a Singapore Chinese health study.

Background: Cognitive impairment (CI) raises risks for unplanned healthcare utilisation and expenditures and for premature mortality. It may also reduce risks for planned expenditures. Therefore, the net cost implications for those with CI remain unknown. Method: We examined differences in healthcare utilisation and cost between those with and without CI. Using administrative healthcare utilisation and cost data linked to the Singapore Chinese Health Study cohort, we estimated regression-adjusted differences in annual healthcare utilisation and costs by CI status determined by modified Mini-Mental State Exam. Estimates were stratified by ex ante mortality risk constructed from out-of-sample Cox model predictions applied to the full sample, with a separate analysis restricted to decedents. These estimates were used to project differential healthcare costs by CI status over 5 years. Results: Patients with CI had 17% higher annual cost compared to those without CI (SGD4870 versus SGD4177, P<0.01). Accounting for the greater mortality risk, individuals with CI cost 9% to 17% more over 5 years, or SGD2500 (95% confidence interval 1000-4200) to SGD3600 (95% confidence interval 1300-6000) more, depending on their age. Higher cost was mainly due to more emergency department visits and subsequent admissions (i.e. unplanned). Differences attenuated in the last year of life when costs increased dramatically for both groups. Conclusion: Ageing populations and higher rates of CI will further strain healthcare resources primarily through greater use of emergency department visits and unplanned admissions. Efforts should be made to identify at risk patients with CI and take appropriate remediation strategies.

Associated demographic factors for the recurrence and prognosis of stroke patients within a multiethnic Asian population.

OBJECTIVE: There is a paucity of studies investigating the outcomes among Asian stroke patients. Identifying subgroups of stroke patients at risk of poorer outcomes could identify patients who would benefit from targeted interventions. Therefore, the aim of this study was to identify which ischemic stroke patients at high risk of recurrent events and mortality. METHODS: This cohort study adhered to STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) guidelines. We obtained data from the Singapore Stroke Registry (SSR) from 2005 to 2016 and cross referenced to the Death Registry and the Myocardial Infarction Registry. Outcome measures included recurrent stroke, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and all-cause and stroke-related deaths. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were performed to determine risk factors for recurrent stroke, AMI, and all-cause and stroke-related deaths. RESULTS: A total of 64,915 patients (6705 young, and 58,210 older) were included in our analysis. Older stroke patients were found to have an increased risk of recurrent stroke (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.21, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.12-1.30), AMI (HR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.54-1.95), all-cause death (HR = 2.49, 95% CI = 2.34-2.64), and stroke-related death (HR = 176, 95% CI = 1.61-1.92). Among young stroke patients, males were at increased risk for recurrent stroke (HR = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.01-1.39) and AMI (HR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.08-1.83), but at reduced risk for all-cause (HR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.69-0.89) and stroke-related deaths (HR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.67-0.94). Ethnicity appeared to influence outcomes, with Malay patients at increased risk of recurrent stroke (HR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.14-1.65), AMI (HR = 2.45, 95% CI = 1.87-3.22), and all-cause (HR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.24-1.66) and stroke-related deaths (HR = 1.34, 95% CI = 1.09-1.64). Indian patients were also at increased risk of AMI (HR = 1.96, 95% CI = 1.41-2.72). Similar findings were seen among the older stroke patients. CONCLUSION: This study found that older stroke patients are at risk of poorer outcomes. Within the young stroke population specifically, males were predisposed to recurrent stroke and AMI but were protected against all-cause and stroke-related deaths. Males were also at reduced risk of all-cause and stroke-related deaths in the older stroke population. In addition, Malay and Indian patients experience poorer outcomes after first stroke. Further optimization of risk factors targeting these high-priority populations are needed to achieve high-quality care.

Impact of COVID-19 national response on primary care utilisation in Singapore: an interrupted time-series analysis.

Since the start of the pandemic, many national responses, such as nationwide lockdowns, have been implemented to curb the spread of COVID-19. We aim to assess the impact of Singapore's national responses on primary care utilisation. We performed an interrupted time series using acute and chronic primary care data of 3 168 578 visits between 1 September 2019 and 31 August 2020 over four periods: before any measures were put in place, during Disease Outbreak Response System Condition (DORSCON) Orange, when Circuit Breaker was instituted, and when Circuit Breaker was lifted. We found significant mean reductions in acute and chronic primary care visits immediately following DORSCON Orange and Circuit Breaker. DORSCON Orange was associated with - 2020 mean daily visits (95% CI - 2890 to - 1150). Circuit Breaker was associated with a further - 2510 mean daily visits (95% CI - 3660 to - 1360). Primary care utilisation for acute visits remained below baseline levels even after the Circuit Breaker was lifted. These significant reductions were observed in both acute and chronic visits, with acute visits experiencing a steeper drop during DORSCON Orange. Understanding the impact of COVID-19 measures on primary care utilisation will be useful for future public health planning.

Empiric treatment with aspirin and ticagrelor is the most cost-effective strategy in patients with minor stroke or transient ischemic attack.

BACKGROUND: Patients with minor ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attacks (TIAs) are often treated with dual antiplatelet therapy regimens as part of secondary stroke prevention. Clopidogrel, an antiplatelet used in these regimens, is metabolized into its active form by the CYP2C19 enzyme. Patients with loss of function (LOF) mutations in CYP2C19 are at risk for poorer secondary outcomes when prescribed clopidogrel. AIMS: We aimed to determine the cost-effectiveness of three different treatment antiplatelet regimens in ischemic stroke populations with minor strokes or TIAs and how these treatment regimens are influenced by the LOF prevalence in the population. METHODS: Markov models were developed to look at the cost-effectiveness of empiric treatment with aspirin and clopidogrel versus empiric treatment with aspirin and ticagrelor, versus genotype-guided therapy for either 21 or 30 days. Effect ratios were obtained from the literature, and incidence rates and costs were obtained from the national data published by the Singapore Ministry of Health. The primary endpoints were the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). RESULTS: Empiric treatment with aspirin and ticagrelor was the most cost-effective treatment. Genotype-guided therapy was more cost-effective than empiric aspirin and clopidogrel if the LOF was above 48%. Empiric ticagrelor and aspirin was cost saving when compared to genotype-guided therapy. Results in models of dual antiplatelet therapy for 30 days were similar. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that in patients with minor stroke and TIA planned for dual antiplatelet regimens, empiric ticagrelor and aspirin is the most cost-effective treatment regimen. If ticagrelor is not available, genotype-guided therapy is the most cost-effective treatment regimen if the LOF prevalence in the population is more than 48%.

Long-term Cardiovascular, Cerebrovascular, and Other Thrombotic Complications in COVID-19 Survivors: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Growing evidence suggests that some coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) survivors experience a wide range of long-term postacute sequelae. We examined the postacute risk and burden of new-incident cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and other thrombotic complications after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in a highly vaccinated multiethnic Southeast Asian population, during Delta predominance. METHODS: This cohort study used national testing and healthcare claims databases in Singapore to build a cohort of individuals who had a positive SARS-CoV-2 test between 1 September and 30 November 2021 when Delta predominated community transmission. Concurrently, we constructed a test-negative control group by enrolling individuals between 13 April 2020 and 31 December 2022 with no evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Participants in both groups were followed up for a median of 300 days. We estimated risks of new-incident cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and other thrombotic complications using doubly robust competing-risks survival analysis. Risks were reported using 2 measures: hazard ratio (HR) and excess burden (EB) with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: We included 106 012 infected cases and 1 684 085 test-negative controls. Compared with the control group, individuals with COVID-19 exhibited increased risk (HR, 1.157 [1.069-1.252]) and excess burden (EB, 0.70 [.53-.88]) of new-incident cardiovascular and cerebrovascular complications. Risks decreased in a graded fashion for fully vaccinated (HR, 1.11 [1.02-1.22]) and boosted (HR, 1.10 [.92-1.32]) individuals. Conversely, risks and burdens of subsequent cardiovascular/cerebrovascular complications increased for hospitalized and severe COVID-19 cases (compared to nonhospitalized cases). CONCLUSIONS: Increased risks and excess burdens of new-incident cardiovascular/cerebrovascular complications were reported among infected individuals; risks can be attenuated with vaccination and boosting.

Long-term neuropsychiatric sequelae of Delta versus Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infection.

OBJECTIVES: Studies have reported increased rates of long-term neuropsychiatric sequelae after SARS-CoV-2 infection using electronic health-record (EHR) data; however, the majority were conducted before Omicron and booster rollout. We estimated the long-term risks and excess burdens of pre-specified new-incident neuropsychiatric diagnoses after Delta versus Omicron BA.1/2 infection in a highly-vaccinated and boosted cohort of adult Singaporeans. METHODS: The national SARS-CoV-2 testing registry was used to construct cohorts of Singaporean adults infected during periods of Delta and Omicron BA.1/2 predominance and a contemporaneous test-negative control group. New-incident neuropsychiatric diagnoses recorded in the national health care claims database were identified up to 300 days postinfection. Risks and excess burden were estimated using a doubly robust competing-risks survival analysis. RESULTS: 104 179 and 375 903 infected cases were assigned to Delta and Omicron cohorts and compared against test-negative controls (Delta: N = 666 575 and Omicron: N = 619 379). Elevated risk of cognition or memory disorders was consistently reported across Omicron (Adjusted hazards ratio [aHR], 1.24; 95% CI, 1.12-1.38) and Delta cohorts (aHR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.39-1.92). Delta-variant infection was associated with an increased risk of anosmia or dysgeusia (aHR, 4.53; 95% CI, 2.78-7.41) and psychosis (aHR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.22-2.22). By contrast, Omicron-variant infection was associated with a risk of abnormal involuntary movements (aHR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.32-2.83). Risks of neuropsychiatric sequelae predominantly accrued in hospitalized individuals. DISCUSSIONS: A modestly increased risk of cognition and memory disorders at 300 days after SARS-CoV-2 infection was observed among adult Singaporeans infected during the Delta/Omicron BA.1/2 transmission. There was no overall increased risk of neuropsychiatric sequelae observed across other domains. Variant-specific differences were also observed in individual neuropsychiatric sequelae, including an elevated risk of anosmia or dysgeusia after Delta-variant infection.

mRNA SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Before vs During Pregnancy and Omicron Infection Among Infants.

Importance: Infants younger than 6 months are at risk of severe SARS-CoV-2 infection. Data are lacking on the optimum timing for maternal vaccination and estimated effectiveness against Omicron variants, including XBB, for infants. Objective: To investigate maternal vaccination against Omicron variants, including XBB, and the association of vaccination timing during pregnancy vs prior to pregnancy and risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection among infants aged 6 months or younger. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cohort study was conducted between January 1, 2022, and March 31, 2023. Singapore's national dataset was used to study infants born at greater than 32 weeks' gestation between January 1, 2022, and September 30, 2022. The study included infants whose parents had a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection from the date of birth up to 6 months of age. Of 21 609 infants born during this period, 7292 (33.7%) had at least 1 parent infected with SARS-CoV-2 before the age of 7 months. Statistical analysis was performed from April to July 2023. Exposure: Infants' mothers were unvaccinated, vaccinated prior to pregnancy, or vaccinated with a messenger RNA (mRNA) SARS-CoV-2 vaccine during pregnancy. Main Outcome and Measure: Infants were considered infected if they had a positive polymerase chain reaction test. Results: Among 7292 infants included in this study, 4522 (62.0%) had mothers who were Chinese, 527 (7.2%) had mothers who were Indian, 2007 (27.5%) had mothers who were Malay, and 236 (3.2%) had mothers who were other ethnicity; 6809 infants (93.4%) were born at full term, and 1272 infants (17.4%) were infected during the study period. There were 7120 infants (97.6%) born to mothers who had been fully vaccinated or boosted as of 14 days prior to delivery. The crude incidence rate was 174.3 per 100 000 person-days among infants born to mothers who were unvaccinated, 122.2 per 100 000 person-days among infants born to mothers who were vaccinated before pregnancy, and 128.5 per 100 000 person-days among infants born to mothers who were vaccinated during pregnancy. The estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) was 41.5% (95% CI, 22.8% to 55.7%) among infants born to mothers vaccinated during pregnancy. Infants of mothers who received vaccination prior to pregnancy did not have a lower risk for infection (estimated VE, 15.4% [95% CI, -17.6% to 39.1%]). A lower risk for Omicron XBB infection was only observed among mothers vaccinated with the third (booster) dose antenatally (estimated VE, 76.7% [95% CI, 12.8% to 93.8%]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this population-based cohort study, maternal mRNA vaccination was associated with a lower risk of Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infection among infants up to 6 months of age only if the vaccine was given during the antenatal period. These findings suggest that mRNA vaccination during pregnancy may be needed for lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection among newborns.

Predictors of 10-year Mortality After Hip Fracture Surgery in a Pre-Pandemic Cohort.

Introduction: Though hip fractures are associated with significant mortality and morbidity, increasing life expectancy in developed countries necessitates an analysis of mortality trends and factors predicting long term survival. The aim of this study is to identify the predictors of 10-year mortality as well as assess the correlation of Age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (ACCI) with 10-year mortality in a surgically treated Asian geriatric hip fracture population. Materials and Methods: From January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2009, 766 patients who underwent surgery for hip fracture with a minimum follow up of 10-years were recruited to the study (92% follow-up rate). A review of the patient's electronic hospital records was performed to glean the following data: patient demographics, pre-existing comorbidities, operation duration, length of stay, fracture configuration, as well as mortality data up to 10 years. CCI scores and individual co-morbidities were correlated with inpatient, 30-day, 1-year, 5-year and beyond 10-year mortality. Results: Of the 766 patients, the mortality rate for 30-day, 1-year, 5-year and 10-years was 2.9%, 12.0%, 38.9% and 61.6% respectively. The average ACCI was 5.31. The 10-year mortality for patients with ACCI ≤ 3, ACCI 4-5 and ACCI ≥ 6 are 29.4%, 57.4% and 77.5% respectively. End-Stage-Renal Failure (ESRF), liver failure and COPD were dominant predictors of mortality at 10 years, whereas cancer was the predominant predictor at 1 year. Discussion: ACCI significantly correlates with the 10-year mortality after surgically treated hip fractures with a shift of the dominant predictors from cancer to ESRF and COPD. This could inform future health policy and resource planning. This data also represents recently available pre-pandemic survival trends after hip fracture surgery and serves as a baseline for post-pandemic outcome surveillance of interventions for fragility fractures. Conclusion: This study demonstrates that ACCI correlated with 10-year mortality after surgical treatment of hip fractures.

Factors associated with delayed diagnosis of symptomatic adult COVID-19 cases presenting to primary care: a population-wide study during transition from Delta to Omicron BA.1 in Singapore.

Background: During pandemics, avoiding time delay in diagnosing infection is crucial. We evaluated factors associated with delayed diagnosis of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in a national cohort of adult Singaporeans, during which emergence of the more transmissible Omicron variant shifted pandemic management towards endemicity. Methods: Retrospective cross-sectional study amongst all adult Singaporeans diagnosed with symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection during the transition from Delta to Omicron BA.1 (September 2021-February 2022). SARS-CoV-2 testing was fully subsidised and compulsory for all symptomatic individuals presenting at primary care. Results and demographic information were extracted from national databases. Time to diagnosis was defined as days from symptom-onset to diagnosis (date of first positive SARS-CoV-2 test); dichotomising into no delay (≤24 h from symptom-onset) and delay >24 h. Multivariable logistic regression was utilised to assess factors associated with delay >24 h, and association of delay >24 h with progression to severe COVID-19. Findings: Of 149,063 Singaporean adults presenting with symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, 75.9% (113,195/149,063) were diagnosed within 24 h of symptom-onset. On multivariable analysis, female gender, older age (>60 years), Chinese (vs. Malay) ethnicity, socioeconomic status (housing type), primary care characteristics, presentation during Omicron BA.1 (vs. Delta), symptom-onset on Friday/Saturday (vs. Monday), and not having completed a primary vaccination series were independently associated with higher odds of delay >24 h. Delay >24 h was independently associated with severe COVID-19 (adjusted odds-ratio, aOR = 1.45, 95% CI = 1.27-1.65, p < 0.001). Interpretation: At-risk populations (unvaccinated, age >60 years) had higher odds of delay in diagnosis. Delay >24 h in diagnosis was independently associated with severe COVID-19. Funding: This study was not grant-funded.

Effectiveness of Monovalent mRNA Vaccines Against Omicron XBB Infection in Singaporean Children Younger Than 5 Years.

Importance: Literature on vaccine effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines for children younger than 5 years is limited. Objective: To report the effectiveness of monovalent mRNA vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection among Singaporean children aged 1 through 4 years during a COVID-19 pandemic wave of the Omicron XBB variant. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a population-based cohort study, conducted over a 6-month study period from October 1, 2022, through March 31, 2023, after the implementation of community vaccination among all Singaporean children aged 1 through 4 years. The study period was dominated by the Omicron XBB subvariant. Exposure: Receipt of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines. Main Outcome Measure: Vaccine effectiveness against confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. The adjusted incidence rate ratio for confirmed infections using Poisson regression was reported, with the reference group being those who were unvaccinated. Analyses were stratified by prior documented SARS-CoV-2 infection. Results: A total of 121 628 children (median [IQR] age, 3.1 [2.2-3.9] years; 61 925 male [50.9%]) were included in the study, contributing 21 015 956 person-days of observation. The majority of children (11 294 of 11 705 [96.5%]) received the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine (Moderna). Vaccine effectiveness against confirmed infection was 45.2% (95% CI, 24.7%-60.2%) in partially vaccinated, infection-naive children and 63.3% (95% CI, 40.6%-77.3%) in fully vaccinated, infection-naive children compared with the unvaccinated group. Among previously infected children, vaccine effectiveness against reinfections in those with at least 1 vaccine dose was estimated at 74.6% (95% CI, 38.7%-89.5%). Conclusions and Relevance: Study results suggest that completion of a primary mRNA vaccine series provided protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection in children aged 1 through 4 years. Although incidence of hospitalization and severe illness is low in this age group, there is potential benefit of vaccination in preventing infection and potential sequelae.

Chronic wounds in a multiethnic Asian population: a cost of illness study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the 'cost of illness' arising from chronic wounds in Singapore. DESIGN: Incidence-based cost of illness study using evidence from a range of sources. SETTING: Singapore health services. PARTICIPANTS: We consider 3.49 million Singapore citizens and permanent residents. There are 16 752 new individuals with a chronic wound in 2017, with 598 venous ulcers, 2206 arterial insufficiency ulcers, 6680 diabetic ulcers and 7268 pressure injuries.Primary outcome measures expressed in monetary terms are the value of all hospital bed days lost for the population; monetary value of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost in the population; costs of all outpatient visits; and costs of all poly clinic, use of Community Health Assist Scheme (CHAS) and emergency departments (EDs) visits. Intermediate outcomes that inform the primary outcomes are also estimated. RESULTS: Total annual cost of illness was $350 million (range $72-$1779 million). With 168 503 acute bed days taken up annually (range 141 966-196 032) that incurred costs of $139 million (range 117-161 million). Total costs to health services were $184 million (range $120-$1179 million). Total annual costs of lost health outcomes were 2077 QALYs (range -2657 to 29 029) valued at $166 million (range -212 to 2399 million). CONCLUSIONS: The costs of chronic wounds are large to Singapore. Costs can be reduced by making positive investments for comprehensive wound prevention and treatment programmes.

Effectiveness of bivalent mRNA vaccines against medically attended symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-related hospital admission among SARS-CoV-2-naive and previously infected individuals: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 omicron (B.1.1.529) variant with high immune evasion has led to the development and roll-out of bivalent mRNA vaccines targeting original and omicron strains. However, real-world observational data on effectiveness of bivalent vaccines are scarce. We aimed to assess the relative effectiveness of a fourth vaccine dose with the BA.1-adapted or BA.4/BA.5-adapted bivalent vaccines against medically attended symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-related hospital admission among SARS-CoV-2-naive and previously infected individuals in Singapore. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among Singapore residents aged 18 years and older who had received three monovalent mRNA vaccine doses and were eligible for a fourth dose. Data were collected from official databases on COVID-19 cases and vaccinations maintained by the Singapore Ministry of Health. We analysed the incidence of medically attended symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-related hospital admission between Oct 14, 2022, and Jan 31, 2023, by previous infection status and type of fourth vaccine dose received. Inverse probability-weighted Cox regressions were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs). FINDINGS: 2 749 819 individuals were included in the analysis. For the SARS-CoV-2-naive group, a fourth monovalent vaccine dose did not confer additional protection over three monovalent doses against symptomatic infection (HR 1·09 [95% CI 1·07-1·11]), whereas the bivalent vaccine did provide additional protection (0·18 [0·17-0·19]). Among individuals with previous infection, the HR was 0·87 (95% CI 0·84-0·91) and 0·14 (0·13-0·15) with receipt of the fourth monovalent and bivalent doses, respectively. Against COVID-19-related hospital admission, the bivalent vaccine (HR 0·12 [95% CI 0·08-0·18] in SARS-CoV-2-naive participants and 0·04 [0·01-0·15] in previously infected participants) conferred greater benefit compared with the fourth monovalent dose (0·84 [0·77-0·91] in SARS-CoV-2-naive participants and 0·85 [0·69-1·04] in previously infected participants). INTERPRETATION: A fourth dose with the bivalent vaccine was substantially more effective against medically attended symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-related hospital admission than four monovalent doses among both SARS-CoV-2-naive and previously infected individuals. Boosters with the bivalent vaccine might be preferred in this omicron-predominant pandemic, regardless of previous infection history. FUNDING: None.