Multiscale assessment of habitat selection and avoidance of sympatric carnivores by the endangered ocelot.

Habitat selection by animals is a complex, dynamic process that can vary across spatial and temporal scales. Understanding habitat selection is a vital component of managing endangered species. Ocelots (Leopardus pardalis), a medium-sized endangered felid, overlap in their northern range with bobcats (Lynx rufus) and coyotes (Canis latrans), with all three species sharing similar space and resource use. As the potential for competition between these three carnivores is high, understanding differences in habitat use and the effect of these potential competitors on habitat selection of ocelots is essential to conservation. Our objective was to compare habitat selection between species and examine if ocelots avoided areas used by competitors at broad and fine scales. We captured and collared 8 ocelots, 13 bobcats, and 5 coyotes on the East Foundation's El Sauz Ranch and the Yturria San Francisco Ranch in South Texas, USA from 2017 to 2021. We compared 2nd (position of home range) and 3rd (use within the home range) order selection across species and examined whether ocelots avoided areas categorized as high probability of use by bobcats and coyotes across both orders of selection. We found a preference for heterogeneous landscapes by bobcats and coyotes while ocelots were strongly tied to woody cover across both orders. At the 2nd order, ocelots selected areas with higher probability of use by bobcats and showed no response to higher probability of use by coyotes, suggesting ocelots did not avoid either species. However, at the 3rd order, ocelots avoided areas used by coyotes. Ocelots selected for areas of use by bobcats at the 2nd order and 3rd order. Results suggest that at the broader scale, placement of the home range is not affected by the presence of sympatric carnivores, however, at a finer scale, ocelots are avoiding coyotes but not bobcats. Our study emphasizes the importance of woody and herbaceous cover at the broad scale and dense vegetation at the finer scale to sustain ocelots. In addition, we show differing patterns of interspecific avoidance by ocelots across species and scales.

The broad scale impact of climate change on planning aerial wildlife surveys with drone-based thermal cameras.

Helicopters used for aerial wildlife surveys are expensive, dangerous and time consuming. Drones and thermal infrared cameras can detect wildlife, though the ability to detect individuals is dependent on weather conditions. While we have a good understanding of local weather conditions, we do not have a broad-scale assessment of ambient temperature to plan drone wildlife surveys. Climate change will affect our ability to conduct thermal surveys in the future. Our objective was to determine optimal annual and daily time periods to conduct surveys. We present a case study in Texas, (United States of America [USA]) where we acquired and compared average monthly temperature data from 1990 to 2019, hourly temperature data from 2010 to 2019 and projected monthly temperature data from 2021 to 2040 to identify areas where surveys would detect a commonly studied ungulate (white-tailed deer [Odocoileus virginianus]) during sunny or cloudy conditions. Mean temperatures increased when comparing the 1990-2019 to 2010-2019 periods. Mean temperatures above the maximum ambient temperature in which white-tailed deer can be detected increased in 72, 10, 10, and 24 of the 254 Texas counties in June, July, August, and September, respectively. Future climate projections indicate that temperatures above the maximum ambient temperature in which white-tailed deer can be detected will increase in 32, 12, 15, and 47 counties in June, July, August, and September, respectively when comparing 2010-2019 with 2021-2040. This analysis can assist planning, and scheduling thermal drone wildlife surveys across the year and combined with daily data can be efficient to plan drone flights.

Fire management alters the thermal landscape and provides multi-scale thermal options for a terrestrial turtle facing a changing climate.

As effects of climate change intensify, there is a growing need to understand the thermal properties of landscapes and their influence on wildlife. A key thermal property of landscapes is vegetation structure and composition. Management approaches can alter vegetation and consequently the thermal landscape, potentially resulting in underappreciated consequences for wildlife thermoregulation. Consideration of spatial scale can clarify how management overlaid onto existing vegetation patterns affects thermal properties of landscapes relevant to wildlife. We examined effects of temperature, fire management, and vegetation structure on multi-scale habitat selection of an ectothermic vertebrate (the turtle Terrapene carolina triunguis) in the Great Plains of the central United States by linking time-since-fire data from 18 experimental burn plots to turtle telemetry locations and thermal and vegetation height data. Within three 60-ha experimental landscapes, each containing six 10-ha sub-blocks that are periodically burned, we found that turtles select time-since-fire gradients differently depending on maximum daily ambient temperature. At moderate temperatures, turtles selected sub-blocks with recent (<1 year) time-since-fire, but during relatively hot and cool conditions, they selected sub-blocks with later (2-3 year) time-since-fire that provided thermal buffering compared with recently burned sub-blocks. Within 10-ha sub-blocks, turtles selected locations with taller vegetation during warmer conditions that provided thermal buffering. Thermal performance curves revealed that turtle activity declined as temperatures exceeded ~24-29°C, and on "heat days" (≥29°C) 73% of turtles were inactive compared with 37% on non-heat days, emphasizing that thermal extremes may lead to opportunity costs (i.e., foregone benefits turtles could otherwise accrue if active). Our results indicate that management approaches that promote a mosaic of vegetation heights, like spatiotemporally dynamic fire, can provide thermal refuges at multiple spatial scales and thus be an actionable way to provide wildlife with multiple thermal options in the context of ongoing and future climate change.

Woody encroachment of grasslands: Near-surface thermal implications assessed through the lens of an astronomical event.

Temperature has long been understood as a fundamental condition that influences ecological patterns and processes. Heterogeneity in landscapes that is structured by ultimate (climate) and proximate (vegetation, topography, disturbance events, and land use) forces serve to shape thermal patterns across multiple spatio-temporal scales. Thermal landscapes of grasslands are likely shifting as woody encroachment fragments these ecosystems and studies quantifying thermal fragmentation in grassland systems resulting from woody encroachment are lacking. We utilized the August 21st, 2017, solar eclipse to mimic a rapid sunrise/sunset event across a landscape characterized as a grassland to experimentally manipulate levels of solar radiation in the system. We then quantified changes in near-surface temperatures resulting from changes in solar radiation levels during the eclipse. Temperatures were monitored across three grassland pastures in central Oklahoma that were characterized by different densities (low, medium, and high) of Juniperus virginiana to understand the impact of woody encroachment on diurnal temperature patterns and thermal heterogeneity in a grassland's thermal landscape. The largest temperature range across sites that occurred during the eclipse was in the mixed grass vegetation. Similarly, the largest change in thermal heterogeneity occurred in the grassland with the lowest amount of woody encroachment. Thermal heterogeneity was lowest in the highly encroached grassland, which also experienced the lowest overall change in thermal heterogeneity during the eclipse. Time series models suggested that solar radiation was the most influential factor in predicting changes in thermal heterogeneity as opposed to ambient temperature alone. These results suggest that highly encroached grasslands may experience lower diurnal variability of temperatures at the cost of a decrease in the overall thermal heterogeneity of that landscape. It appears that fine-scale spatio-temporal thermal variation is largely driven by solar radiation, which can be influenced by vegetation heterogeneity inherent within a landscape.

Role of the thermal environment in scaled quail (Callipepla squamata) nest site selection and survival.

Temperature is increasingly recognized as an important component of wildlife habitat. Temperature is particularly important for avian nest sites, where extreme temperatures can influence adult behavior, embryonic development, and survival. For species inhabiting arid and semiarid climates, such as the scaled quail (Callipepla squamata), frequent exposure to extreme temperatures may increase the importance of the nest microclimate. Limited data suggest that scaled quail respond to temperature when selecting nest sites, and they are also known to respond to the presence of surface water and shrub cover on the landscape, two resources which may mitigate thermal stress. To better understand the role of temperature in nest site selection and survival, and to evaluate how other landscape resources may benefit nesting quail, we investigated nest site characteristics of scaled quail in southeastern New Mexico, USA. During the breeding seasons of 2018 and 2019 we located nests, monitored nest fate, and recorded thermal and vegetation characteristics at three spatial scales: the nest bowl, the nest microsite (area within 10 m of the nest bowl), and the landscape. We found that nest bowls moderated temperature relative to both the surrounding microsite and the broader landscape, remaining almost 5 °C cooler on average than the surrounding microsite at mid-day. Nest bowls also had taller, greater cover of vegetation compared to both the surrounding microsites and the landscape. Despite apparent selection for cooler temperatures and taller vegetation, these characteristics demonstrated a weak relationship with nest survival. Rather, nest survival was positively influenced by proximity to surface water and honey mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa), with survival decreasing with increasing distance from these features. Although the mechanism for this relationship is unclear, our results support the importance of temperature for nest site selection of ground-nesting birds in semiarid landscapes, and suggest further exploration of landscape-level sources of thermal mitigation.

Invasive woody plants as foci of tick-borne pathogens: eastern redcedar in the southern Great Plains.

Habitat preference and usage by disease vectors are directly correlated with landscapes often undergoing anthropogenic environmental change. A predominant type of land use change occurring in the United States is the expansion of native and non-native woody plant species in grasslands, but little is known regarding the impact of this expansion on regional vector-borne disease transmission. In this study, we focused on the impact of expanding eastern redcedar (Juniperus virginiana; ERC) and tested two hypotheses involving relationships between habitat preferences of adult tick species in rural habitats in central Oklahoma. Using CO2 traps, we collected ticks from two densities of ERC and grassland and screened adult ticks for the presence of pathogen DNA. We found support for our first hypothesis with significantly more Amblyomma americanum (Linnaeus) and Dermacentor variabilis (Say) collected in ERC habitats than in grassland. Our second hypothesis was also supported, as Ehrlichia- and Rickettsia-infected A. americanum were significantly more likely to be collected from ERC habitats than grassland. As the first evidence that links woody plant encroachment with important tick-borne pathogens in the continental United States, these results have important ramifications involving human and companion animal risk for encountering pathogen-infected ticks in the southern Great Plains.

Behavioral modifications lead to disparate demographic consequences in two sympatric species.

Life-history theory suggests species that typically have a large number of offspring and high adult mortality may make decisions that benefit offspring survival in exchange for increased adult risks. Such behavioral adaptations are essential to understanding how demographic performance is linked to habitat selection during this important life-history stage. Though studies have illustrated negative fitness consequences to attendant adults or potential fitness benefits to associated offspring because of adaptive habitat selection during brood rearing, equivocal relationships could arise if both aspects of this reproductive trade-off are not assessed simultaneously. To better understand how adaptive habitat selection during brood rearing influences demographics, we studied the brood survival, attendant parental survival, and space use of two sympatric ground-nesting bird species, the northern bobwhite (hereafter: "bobwhite"; Colinus virgininanus) and scaled quail (Callipepla squamata). During the 2013-2014 breeding seasons, we estimated habitat suitability across two grains (2 m and 30 m) for both species and determined how adult space use of these areas influenced individual chick survival and parental risk. We found the proportion of a brood's home range containing highly suitable areas significantly increased bobwhite chick survival (ß = 0.02, SE = 0.006). Additionally, adult weekly survival for bobwhite was greater for individuals not actively brooding offspring (0.9716, SE = 0.0054) as compared to brooding adults (0.8928, SE = 0.0006). Conversely, brood habitat suitability did not influence scaled quail chick survival during our study, nor did we detect a survival cost for adults that were actively brooding offspring. Our research illustrates the importance of understanding life-history strategies and how they might influence relationships between adaptive habitat selection and demographic parameters.

Factors affecting availability for detection: An example using radio-collared Northern Bobwhite (Colinus virginianus).

Avian monitoring strategies are usually linked to bird singing or calling behavior. Individual availability for detection can change as a result of conspecific factors affecting bird behavior, though the magnitude of these effects is difficult to quantify. We evaluated behavioral and temporal factors affecting Northern Bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) breeding season individual availability for detection during three common survey times (3 min, 5 min, 10 min). We conducted 10-minute surveys associated with radio-collared male Northern Bobwhites on Peabody Wildlife Management Area, Kentucky, from 2010-2011. We homed to within 50 m of radio-collared males and recorded number of distinct Northern Bobwhite whistles (singing rate) per 1-minute interval, number of other males calling during the survey, minutes-since-sunrise, and day-of-season. We also recorded the number of minutes during a 10-minute survey that radio-collared male Northern Bobwhites called. We used logistic regression to estimate availability of radio-collared individuals for 3-minute, 5-minute, and 10-minute surveys. We also modeled number of minutes during 10-minute surveys that radio-collared Northern Bobwhites called, and we modeled singing rate. Individual availability for detection of radio-collared individuals during a 10-minute survey increased by 100% when at least 1 other Northern Bobwhite called during a survey (6.5% to 13.1%) and by 626% when 6 other Northern Bobwhites were calling (6.5% to 47.6%). Individual availability was 30% greater for 10-minute surveys than 5-minute surveys or 55% greater for 10-minute surveys than 3-minute surveys. Northern Bobwhite called most (2.8 ± 0.66 minutes/10-min survey) and at a greater rate (11.8 ± 1.3 calls/10-min period) when at least 5 other Northern Bobwhites called. Practitioners risk biasing population estimates low if individual availability is unaccounted for because species with low populations will not be stimulated by other calling males, are less likely to call, call less frequently, and call fewer times per minute, reducing their individual availability and likelihood to be counted on a survey even when they are present.

Incorporating abundance information and guiding variable selection for climate-based ensemble forecasting of species' distributional shifts.

Ecological niche models (ENMs) have increasingly been used to estimate the potential effects of climate change on species' distributions worldwide. Recently, predictions of species abundance have also been obtained with such models, though knowledge about the climatic variables affecting species abundance is often lacking. To address this, we used a well-studied guild (temperate North American quail) and the Maxent modeling algorithm to compare model performance of three variable selection approaches: correlation/variable contribution (CVC), biological (i.e., variables known to affect species abundance), and random. We then applied the best approach to forecast potential distributions, under future climatic conditions, and analyze future potential distributions in light of available abundance data and presence-only occurrence data. To estimate species' distributional shifts we generated ensemble forecasts using four global circulation models, four representative concentration pathways, and two time periods (2050 and 2070). Furthermore, we present distributional shifts where 75%, 90%, and 100% of our ensemble models agreed. The CVC variable selection approach outperformed our biological approach for four of the six species. Model projections indicated species-specific effects of climate change on future distributions of temperate North American quail. The Gambel's quail (Callipepla gambelii) was the only species predicted to gain area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Conversely, the scaled quail (Callipepla squamata) was the only species predicted to lose area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Our models projected future loss of areas for the northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) and scaled quail in portions of their distributions which are currently areas of high abundance. Climatic variables that influence local abundance may not always scale up to influence species' distributions. Special attention should be given to selecting variables for ENMs, and tests of model performance should be used to validate the choice of variables.

Extreme climatic events constrain space use and survival of a ground-nesting bird.

Two fundamental issues in ecology are understanding what influences the distribution and abundance of organisms through space and time. While it is well established that broad-scale patterns of abiotic and biotic conditions affect organisms' distributions and population fluctuations, discrete events may be important drivers of space use, survival, and persistence. These discrete extreme climatic events can constrain populations and space use at fine scales beyond that which is typically measured in ecological studies. Recently, a growing body of literature has identified thermal stress as a potential mechanism in determining space use and survival. We sought to determine how ambient temperature at fine temporal scales affected survival and space use for a ground-nesting quail species (Colinus virginianus; northern bobwhite). We modeled space use across an ambient temperature gradient (ranging from -20 to 38 °C) through a maxent algorithm. We also used Andersen-Gill proportional hazard models to assess the influence of ambient temperature-related variables on survival through time. Estimated available useable space ranged from 18.6% to 57.1% of the landscape depending on ambient temperature. The lowest and highest ambient temperature categories (<-15 °C and >35 °C, respectively) were associated with the least amount of estimated useable space (18.6% and 24.6%, respectively). Range overlap analysis indicated dissimilarity in areas where Colinus virginianus were restricted during times of thermal extremes (range overlap = 0.38). This suggests that habitat under a given condition is not necessarily a habitat under alternative conditions. Further, we found survival was most influenced by weekly minimum ambient temperatures. Our results demonstrate that ecological constraints can occur along a thermal gradient and that understanding the effects of these discrete events and how they change over time may be more important to conservation of organisms than are average and broad-scale conditions as typically measured in ecological studies.