Regional food self-sufficiency potential in the European Alpine space.

The sustainability of the food system needs to be improved, including shortening supply chains and promoting the consumption of regional food. Here, we explore the current potential for regional food self-sufficiency in the European Alpine space by calculating the current regional food/feed energy balance, deriving the regional per capita land footprint based on current food/feed consumption rates, and modelling the current potential for regional food/feed self-sufficiency. We show that 59% of the 560 Pcal of energy currently available in the study area comes from domestic production, and almost 60% of the energy is used for livestock consumption, with high regional variability. The resulting land footprints range from 2301 to 2975 m2 cap-1 y-1. Taking into account changes in cropping patterns, partial intensification, but no expansion of agricultural land, the European Alpine space could produce 89% of its current food demand domestically, with high regional variability due to population density, availability of agricultural land, crop yields, climatic conditions and dietary habits. These findings highlight the potential and limitations of regional mountain food systems and call for new strategies to improve sustainability. Reducing the current high consumption of animal products would reduce the land footprint and increase the potential for food self-sufficiency.

Drivers of spatio-temporal population dynamics of game species in a mountain landscape.

Since the end of the nineteenth century, socio-economic changes have greatly altered the Central European landscape and the structural and functional quality of habitats. Urban sprawl areas have appeared, a reduction of multiple forest uses has resulted in the densification of forests and agricultural land use has changed fundamentally through specialisation and intensification. Many of these changes affect biodiversity. To determine the important drivers of spatio-temporal dynamics of the population of 28 game species, we first considered a total of 130 potential explanatory variables. Second, we aggregated the main drivers of single-species models for habitat guilds. Third, we evaluated the results to aid in the development and implementation of mitigation measures for different ecoregions. We used harvest data as a surrogate for population density from 1875 to 2014 in South Tyrol, Italy. In generalised linear models, we used environmental characteristics such as climate, landscape diversity and structures, land cover, hunting, wildlife diseases, competition and predation, land-use type, and intensity (including pesticide use) as explanatory variables to predict the spatio-temporal dynamics of game species. The important drivers are land use and management changes (intensification in the agriculturally favourable areas, extensification or abandonment in the unfavourable areas) as well as associated changes in the landscape features, diversity and structure, and hunting management. Climatic variables, interspecific competition and diseases only play a subordinate role. The dynamics of the habitat guilds and their drivers provide concrete indications for measures to maintain or improve the habitat quality for the investigated species. Particularly important are transfer payments to ensure extensive agricultural use, increasingly through the takeover of personnel costs, but also for the installation of an independent body that monitors and evaluates the effectiveness of the measures.

Past and future impacts of land-use changes on ecosystem services in Austria.

Environmental and socio-economic developments induce land-use changes with potentially negative impacts on human well-being. To counteract undesired developments, a profound understanding of the complex relationships between drivers, land use, and ecosystem services is needed. Yet, national studies examining extended time periods are still rare. Based on the Special Report on land use, land management and climate change by the Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), we use the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework to (1) identify the main drivers of land-use change, (2) describe past and future land-use changes in Austria between 1950 and 2100, (3) report related impacts on ecosystem services, and (4) discuss management responses. Our findings indicate that socio-economic drivers (e.g., economic growth, political systems, and technological developments) have influenced past land-use changes the most. The intensification of agricultural land use and urban sprawl have primarily led to declining ecosystem services in the lowlands. In mountain regions, the abandonment of mountain grassland has prompted a shift from provisioning to regulating services. However, simulations indicate that accelerating climate change will surpass socio-economic drivers in significance towards the end of this century, particularly in intensively used agricultural areas. Although climate change-induced impacts on ecosystem services remain uncertain, it can be expected that the range of land-use management options will be restricted in the future. Consequently, policymaking should prioritize the development of integrated land-use planning to safeguard ecosystem services, accounting for future environmental and socio-economic uncertainties.

Assessing landscape aesthetic values: Do clouds in photographs influence people's preferences?

Photo-based surveys are widely applied to elicit landscape preferences and to assess cultural ecosystem services. Variations in weather and light conditions can potentially alter people's preferences, as sunny landscapes are more positively perceived than those under inclement weather conditions. To assure comparability across pictures, studies usually include photographs taken at sunny days (i.e., blue sky). However, the influence of clouds in sunny landscapes on people's preferences has been rarely considered, although color contrasts between clouds and the blue sky may attract people's attention. This study therefore aimed to assess the effects of clouds in landscape photographs on people's preferences by (1) examining differences in preference between pairs of landscape photographs (i.e., with clouds and without clouds), and (2) explaining variations through variables from eye-tracking simulation, photo content analysis, and Geographic Information System (GIS)-based analysis. Our results indicate no significant differences in preferences between pictures with and without clouds when the pictures with clouds contained a proportion of sky around 22% and a cloud cover of about 39%. However, a higher proportion of sky positively influenced landscape preferences, while a higher proportion of clouds, especially in combination with a lower proportion of sky, had negative effects. These findings suggest that landscape preference studies should pay attention not only to the appearance of the sky in terms of cloudiness, but they also should control the proportion of sky across different pictures to obtain comparable results. Future research should address limitations regarding the transferability of our findings to other types of landscapes and regarding potential differences in perceptions between respondents with different socio-cultural characteristics. Moreover, landscape preferences under changing weather conditions or different cloud types as well as diurnal and seasonal changes should be further explored.

Long-term game species dynamic as indicator for changing landscape quality.

Urban sprawl, increased traffic and modern forestry, as well as the globalisation of agriculture, have increasingly been affecting the landscape and its quality as habitat for species especially since the middle of the last century. Still, there are hardly any methods nor indicators which can measure the quality of the landscape for species over a long period. In this study, we investigated the influence of landscape structure and landscape quality on harvest data of 28 game species in South Tyrol, Italy, over the last 150 years. The harvest data were used to assess the population dynamics of individual species and habitat guilds since 1870. As a first result, we could show, on the examples of six species, that count population data were highly correlated with harvest data and are therefore well suited to estimate their population size. Second, the populations of ungulates consistently increased during the study period. The numbers of mesocarnivores as well as smaller forest and alpine game species increased strongly until the 1970s/80s of the last century, followed by a decline. The populations of farmland species and some synanthropic species have decreased substantially, and some species have even disappeared completely. Based on these results, we were able to show, in a third step, that the landscape quality for game species in South Tyrol has developed differently: In particular, the agriculturally used habitats have lost quality, whereas forests and alpine regions have initially gained quality due to the extensification of use; during the last five decades, the quality decreases again, at least for small game species. Our results thus provide concrete implications for the active improvement of the landscape quality for farmland and forest species, as well as indications for future priorities in funding support of alpine pasture management.

Distribution of soil macrofauna across different habitats in the Eastern European Alps.

Macro-invertebrates are important components of soil ecosystems as they provide a wide range of crucial functions and ecosystem services. Knowledge on their distribution in mountain soils is scarce despite the importance of such soils for people living in mountain regions as well as downstream. The present dataset contains records on soil macro-invertebrates belonging to nineteen taxa listed at class or order level and earthworms listed at species level from 22 different habitat types characteristic for the Eastern European Alps. Data were collected over a period of more than 30 years (1987-2020) following a standard protocol. We compiled 1572 single records from 241 unique sampling sites, providing default site parameters (GPS coordinates, habitat type, type of management, elevation, exposition, inclination, bedrock, soil type following WRB classification). Such data are important to analyse global trends and macroecological patterns and to set a basis for tracking long-term changes in macrofauna composition. In addition, this dataset will add to the still sparse knowledge on the occurrence and abundance of alpine soil fauna taxa.

Potential of eye-tracking simulation software for analyzing landscape preferences.

Profound knowledge about landscape preferences is of high importance to support decision-making, in particular, in the context of emerging socio-economic developments to foster a sustainable spatial development and the maintenance of attractive landscapes. Eye-tracking experiments are increasingly used to examine how respondents observe landscapes, but such studies are very time-consuming and costly. For the first time, this study explored the potential of using eye-tracking simulation software in a mountain landscape by (1) identifying the type of information that can be obtained through eye-tracking simulation and (2) examining how this information contributes to the explanation of landscape preferences. Based on 78 panoramic landscape photographs, representing major landscape types of the Central European Alps, this study collected 19 indicators describing the characteristics of the hotspots that were identified by the Visual Attention Software by 3M (3M-VAS). Indicators included quantitative and spatial information (e.g., number of hotspots, probabilities of initially viewing the hotspots) as well variables indicating natural and artificial features within the hotspots (e.g., clouds, lighting conditions, natural and anthropogenic features). In addition, we estimated 18 variables describing the photo content and calculated 12 landscape metrics to quantify spatial patterns. Our results indicate that on average 3.3 hotspots were identified per photograph, mostly containing single trees and tree trunks, buildings and horizon transitions. Using backward stepwise linear regression models, the hotspot indicators increased the model explanatory power by 24%. Thus, our findings indicate that the analysis of eye-tracking hotspots can support the identification of important elements and areas of a landscape, but it is limited in explaining preferences across different landscape types. Future research should therefore focus on specific landscape characteristics such as complexity, structure or visual appearance of specific elements to increase the depth of information obtained from eye-tracking simulation software.

Changes in perspective needed to forge 'no-regret' forest-based climate change mitigation strategies.

Forest-based mitigation strategies will play a pivotal role in achieving the rapid and deep net-emission reductions required to prevent catastrophic climate change. However, large disagreement prevails on how to forge forest-based mitigation strategies, in particular in regions where forests are currently growing in area and carbon density. Two opposing viewpoints prevail in the current discourse: (1) A widespread viewpoint, specifically in countries in the Global North, favours enhanced wood use, including bioenergy, for substitution of emissions-intensive products and processes. (2) Others instead focus on the biophysical, resource-efficiency and time-response advantages of forest conservation and restoration for carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation, whilst often not explicitly specifying how much wood extraction can still safeguard these ecological benefits. We here argue for a new perspective in sustainable forest research that aims at forging "no-regret" forest-based climate change mitigation strategies. Based on the consideration of forest growth dynamics and the opportunity carbon cost associated with wood use, we suggest that, instead of taking (hypothetical) wood-for-fossil substitution as starting point in assessments of carbon implications of wood products and services, analyses should take the potential and desired carbon sequestration of forests as starting point and quantify sustainable yield potentials compatible with those carbon sequestration potentials. Such an approach explicitly addresses the possible benefits provided by forests as carbon sinks, brings research on the permanence and vulnerability of C-stocks in forests, of substitution effects, as well as explorations of demand-side strategies to the forefront of research and, in particular, aligns better with the urgency to find viable climate solutions.

The contribution of landscape features, climate and topography in shaping taxonomical and functional diversity of avian communities in a heterogeneous Alpine region.

Understanding the effects of landscape composition and configuration, climate, and topography on bird diversity is necessary to identify distribution drivers, potential impacts of land use changes, and future conservation strategies. We surveyed bird communities in a study area located in the Central Alps (Autonomous Province of South Tyrol, northeast Italy), by means of point counts and investigated taxonomic and functional diversity at two spatial scales along gradients of land use/land cover (LULC) intensity and elevation. We also explored how environmental variables influence bird traits and red-list categories. Models combining drivers of different types were highly supported, pointing towards synergetic effects of different types of environmental variables on bird communities. The model containing only LULC compositional variables was the most supported one among the single-group models: LULC composition plays a crucial role in shaping local biodiversity and hence bird communities, even across broad landscape gradients. Particularly relevant were wetlands, open habitats, agricultural mosaics made up of small habitat patches and settlements, ecotonal and structural elements in agricultural settings, and continuous forests. To conserve bird diversity in the Alps, planning and management practices promoting and maintaining small fields, structural elements, and a mosaic of different LULC types should be supported, while preserving continuous forests at the same time. Additionally, pastures, extensively used meadows, and wetlands are key to conservation. These strategies might mitigate the impacts of global change on bird diversity in the Alps and in other European mountain areas.

Effects of land use and climate on carbon and nitrogen pool partitioning in European mountain grasslands.

European mountain grasslands are increasingly affected by land-use changes and climate, which have been suggested to exert important controls on grassland carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) pools. However, so far there has been no synthetic study on whether and how land-use changes and climate interactively affect the partitioning of these pools amongst the different grassland compartments. We analyzed the partitioning of C and N pools of 36 European mountain grasslands differing in land-use and climate with respect to above- and belowground phytomass, litter and topsoil (top 23 cm). We found that a reduction of management intensity and the abandonment of hay meadows and pastures increased above-ground phytomass, root mass and litter as well as their respective C and N pools, concurrently decreasing the fractional contribution of the topsoil to the total organic carbon pool. These changes were strongly driven by the cessation of cutting and grazing, a shift in plant functional groups and a related reduction in litter quality. Across all grasslands studied, variation in the impact of land management on the topsoil N pool and C/N-ratio were mainly explained by soil clay content combined with pH. Across the grasslands, below-ground phytomass as well as phytomass- and litter C concentrations were inversely related to the mean annual temperature; furthermore, C/N-ratios of phytomass and litter increased with decreasing mean annual precipitation. Within the topsoil compartment, C concentrations decreased from colder to warmer sites, and increased with increasing precipitation. Climate generally influenced effects of land use on C and N pools mainly through mean annual temperature and less through mean annual precipitation. We conclude that site-specific conditions need to be considered for understanding the effects of land use and of current and future climate changes on grassland C and N pools.

A first attempt at a holistic analysis of various influencing factors on the fish fauna in the Eastern European Alps.

Fish are some of the most threatened vertebrates in the world due to their often-sensitive response to environmental changes. Major land-use changes in the European Alps have direct and indirect impacts on fish communities, and these impacts are expected to increase in the future. Therefore, the identification of factors that are associated with the distribution of fish communities is of great importance to develop guidelines for management, precautions and sustainable use of running waters. In this study, the relationship of various factors - landscape structure and land use, topography, morphology, hydrology, physical and chemical water characteristics, hormonally active substances, pesticides, food availability, fisheries and piscivores birds - with fish assemblages are analysed. Field data from 81 stream sections from 2001 metres above sea level (m.a.s.l.) down to 219 m.a.s.l. are used in the study. The results reveal that the number of fish species has a strong association with topographic characteristics in the catchment area as well as with landscape configuration. Fish abundance and biomass are associated mostly with land-use type, hydrology, morphology as well as topography. In addition, there are indirect connections between fish abundance and biomass through land-use type, topography, water properties and hydromorphology. The results clearly indicate that not a single factor, but a multitude of factors are associated with the fish communities in the Eastern European Alps.

Evidence for the importance of land use, site characteristics and vegetation composition for rooting in European Alps.

Plant rooting strongly affects most hydrological, biogeochemical and ecological processes in terrestrial ecosystems, as it presents the main pathway for carbon, water and nutrient transfer from soil to the atmosphere and is a key factor in stabilizing the soil layer. Few studies have actually investigated the link between phytosociological and structural vegetation composition and diversity in soil rooting parameters. Our study provides a comprehensive evaluation of plant cover and diversity effects on rooting parameters dependent on different land-use types along a north-south transect in the Eastern Alps. We conducted field studies of root biomass, rooting density and rooting depth for the six main land-use types: intensively and lightly used hay meadows, pastures, arable land, agriculturally unused grasslands and forests. The variation in rooting parameters was explained by different aspects of species and functional richness, species and functional composition, functional traits, abundance of key species and site variables depending on the land-use types. Our results showed that different characteristics of biodiversity explained the variance in root parameters (mass, density and depth) to a high degree (determination coefficient R2 values varied between 0.621 and 0.891). All rooting parameters increased with increasing plant species richness, as well as with a higher diversity of plant functional traits. The inclusion of site parameters significantly increased the explained variance, while we could not find evidence for key species and their abundance to provide additional explanatory power. Allowing the effects to vary depending on land-use types turned out to be a necessity supporting the importance of considering land-use types for rooting. The findings indicate that vegetation composition has a clear relationship with rooting parameters across different habitats in the European Alps. As the effect of plant composition differs with respect to the land-use type, rooting can be monitored by land management to achieve the desired benefits. For example, intensified rooting through extensive management decreases erosion risk and increases carbon uptake.

The plurality of wilderness beliefs and their mediating role in shaping attitudes towards wilderness.

In light of current trends of land abandonment across Europe, the rewilding of abandoned land is increasingly discussed as a future land management option. Since many of the regions affected by rewilding developments will be located in vicinity to densely populated areas, it is imperative to better understand public's attitudes towards an expansion of wilderness. Prior research on wilderness attitudes has typically been descriptive and rarely explored the underlying processes that lead to differences in wilderness attitudes. Taking the Theory of Planned Behaviour as our framework of analysis, we examine public attitudes towards wilderness in the context of people's beliefs of wilderness, and to what extent these beliefs can explain differences in wilderness attitudes between social groups. Results of a questionnaire survey (n = 858) in the mountain region of South Tyrol in the Central Alps show that wilderness attitudes are significantly influenced by three dimensions of wilderness beliefs, corresponding to 1) respondents' general wilderness representations, 2) perceived extent of wilderness areas, and 3) expected consequences of wilderness expansion. In addition, significant differences in wilderness attitudes are found between age groups, user groups, and groups with varying degrees of interest in wildlife watching. Our results indicate that these differences are partly related to contradictory views of wilderness, suggesting that it is not only conflicting interests that may lead to differences in wilderness attitudes between social groups. We conclude that participatory processes are needed to consider the plurality of people's wilderness representations and their perception of risks and benefits for the design and implementation of socially-just rewilding initiatives.

Spatio-temporal changes in ecosystem service values: Effects of land-use changes from past to future (1860-2100).

Increasing global pressure on natural resources requires that decision makers and land managers adopt sustainable solutions to ensure the long-term provision of essential ecosystem services (ES). Analysing the effects of land-use changes on ES can contribute to an improved understanding of the interactions between socio-economic development, landscape changes and ES, which is fundamental in order to avoid or mitigate the undesired consequences of today's decisions. Studies at longer timescales are still underrepresented, but are also fundamental for capturing slow social and ecological processes. This study therefore analysed the impacts of land-use/land cover (LULC) changes on ES values from the past to the future (1860-2100) in the Autonomous Province of South Tyrol (Italy). Future scenarios were based on socio-economic storylines and their spatial distribution mapped. By attributing ES values to LULC types, we assessed changes in ES values as well as their spatial patterns. Our results indicate that the abandonment of mountain grassland induced an ongoing shift in ES at higher elevations, from grassland-related ES towards forest-related ES. The intensification of use in the valley bottoms had predominantly negative effects on regulation & maintenance, and cultural ES in the past. Under future scenarios, changes in ES values at lower elevations greatly depend on expected socio-economic development. Negative effects on regulation & maintenance and cultural ES were highest for the 'Food sovereignty' scenario due to huge transformations of grassland and permanent cultures to arable land in order to optimise food provision at the regional level. In contrast, under the 'Liberalisation' and 'Rewilding' scenarios, there were positive trends for forest-related provisioning ES and less negative effects on regulation & maintenance and cultural ES within the study area, but the dependence on imported products increased. Our findings provide valuable information for decision-making and policy development in order to minimise negative consequences through targeted management measures or payments for environmental services.

Future impacts of changing land-use and climate on ecosystem services of mountain grassland and their resilience.

Although the ecosystem services provided by mountain grasslands have been demonstrated to be highly vulnerable to environmental and management changes in the past, it remains unclear how they will be affected in the face of a combination of further land-use/cover changes and accelerating climate change. Moreover, the resilience of ecosystem services has not been sufficiently analysed under future scenarios. This study aimed to assess future impacts on multiple mountain grassland ecosystem services and their resilience. For a study area in the Central Alps (Stubai Valley, Austria), six ecosystem services were quantified using plant trait-based models for current and future conditions (in 2050 and 2100) considering three socio-economic scenarios. Under all scenarios, the greatest changes in ecosystem services were related to the natural reforestation of abandoned grassland, causing a shift from grassland to forest services. Although the high resilience potential of most ecosystem services will be maintained in the future, climate change seems to have negative impacts, especially on the resilience of forage production. Thus, decision makers and farmers will be faced with the higher vulnerability of ecosystem services of mountain grassland. Future policies should consider both socio-economic and environmental dynamics to manage valuable ecosystem services.

A transnational perspective of global and regional ecosystem service flows from and to mountain regions.

The spatial relationships of ecosystem services are complex and poorly understood due to spatial mismatches between areas of provision and the areas that benefit. In this study, we assess the spatial flows of six key ecosystem services from and to mountain regions at the regional and global level. We identify major directions of spatial flow and illustrate different types and transfer mechanisms with detailed examples focusing on the European Alps and surrounding lowlands. Our results demonstrate that the spatial flows of ecosystem services range from local to global interactions and extend far beyond the regional level for most of the ecosystem services assessed. Transportation processes encompass passive biophysical processes and the active transportation of goods, distribution of information and traveling of people. Decision and policy-making can use this enhanced understanding to influence ecosystem service transfer and consequently manage natural resources in a sustainable way.

Integrating supply, flow and demand to enhance the understanding of interactions among multiple ecosystem services.

A comprehensive understanding of the relationships among ecosystem services (ES) is important for landscape management, decision-making and policy development, but interactions among multiple ES remain under-researched. In particular, earlier studies often did not clearly distinguish between supply, flow and demand. Furthermore, the underlying mechanisms in complex socio-ecological systems remain less examined. In this study, we therefore aimed to assess interactions among eight key ES, adopting a multistep approach. For all ES, we mapped ES supply, flow and demand at the municipality level in the Alpine Space area. We applied correlation analysis and cluster analysis in order to analyse the linkages between ES and to identify bundles of ES. We used random forest analysis to explain the distribution of the ES bundles and to identify important drivers based on socio-ecological variables (e.g. land use/cover, climate, topography and population density). Our results demonstrate that trade-offs and synergies varied greatly for supply, flow and demand. We identified five ES bundles, distinguishing hotspots of ES supply and demand. Twelve socio-ecological variables correctly predicted the membership of 81% of the municipalities to the ES bundles. Our results suggest that a limited number of socio-ecological variables can explain the majority of the distribution of ES bundles in the landscape. Considering the spatial relationships between mountain regions and their surrounding lowlands, regional and transnational governance frameworks need to connect areas of multiple ES supply to areas of ES demand, and should account for the different levels and types of ES relationships.

What drives the future supply of regulating ecosystem services in a mountain forest landscape?

Forest ecosystems provide a wide variety of ecosystem services to society. In harsh mountain environments, the regulating services of forests are of particular importance. Managing mountain forests for regulating services is a cost- and labor intensive endeavor. Yet, also unmanaged forests regulate the environment. In the context of evidence-based decision making it is thus important to scrutinize if current management recommendations improve the supply of regulating ecosystem services over unmanaged development trajectories. A further issue complicating decision making in the context of regulating ecosystem services is their high sensitivity to climate change. Climate-mediated increases in natural disturbances, for instance, could strongly reduce the supply of regulating services from forests in the future. Given the profound environmental changes expected for the coming decades it remains unclear whether forest management will still be able to significantly control the future trajectories of mountain forest development, or whether the management effect will be superseded by a much stronger climate and disturbance effect. Here, our objectives were (i) to quantify the future regulating service supply from a 6456 ha landscape in the Stubai valley in Tyrol, Austria, and (ii) to assess the relative importance of management, climate, and natural disturbances on the future supply of regulating ecosystem services. We focused our analysis on climate regulation, water regulation, and erosion regulation, and used the landscape simulation model iLand to quantify their development under different climate scenarios and management strategies. Our results show that unmanaged forests are efficient in providing regulating ecosystem services. Both climate regulation and erosion regulation were higher in unmanaged systems compared to managed systems, while water regulation was slightly enhanced by management. Overall, direct effects of climate change had a stronger influence on the future supply of regulating services than management and natural disturbances. The ability of management to control ecosystem service supply decreased sharply with the severity of future climate change. This finding highlights that forest management could be severely stymied in the future if climate change continues to proceed at its current rate. An improved quantitative understanding of the drivers of future ecosystem service supply is needed to more effectively combine targeted management efforts and natural ecosystem dynamics towards sustaining the benefits society derives from forests in a rapidly changing world.

Water stress limits transpiration and growth of European larch up to the lower subalpine belt in an inner-alpine dry valley.

Climate change will further constrain water availability in dry inner-alpine environments and affect water relations and growth conditions in mountain forests, including the widespread larch forests. To estimate the effects of climate conditions on water balance and growth, variation in sap flow and stem radius of European larch was measured for 3 yr along an elevation transect from 1070 to 2250 m above sea level (asl) in an inner-alpine dry valley in South Tyrol/Italy. Additionally, long-term climate-growth relations were derived from tree cores. Sap flow and radial growth were reduced in dry periods up to an elevation of 1715 m, leading to maximum annual growth at 2000 m. In a wet year no growth difference between elevations was observed. Long-term tree ring data showed a positive growth response to precipitation up to 1715 m and to temperature only above 2000 m. Our results demonstrate that reduced water availability and higher atmospheric water demand limit larch at low elevation within dry Alpine regions. This indicates a general upward shift of this species' elevational amplitude upon climate change, and respective negative effects on future silvicultural use and ecosystem services at lower elevations in the European Alps.

Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems.

Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.