Application of an egocentric social network approach to examine changes in social connections following treatment for anxiety and depression: A novel measurement tool for clinical trials research?

The epidemic of loneliness and social isolation has been recognized as a public health crisis warranting the same prioritization as other public health issues today, such as obesity, substance use disorders, and tobacco use. Social disconnection is particularly prevalent and disabling among individuals with anxiety and depression, yet it is inadequately evaluated and addressed in most clinical psychology treatment research. Studies generally employ global measures of perceived connectedness, loneliness, or relationship satisfaction, limiting understanding about elements of one's social network that may change with treatment. This study examined changes in the degree (number of people nominated) and quality of one's social network from pre-to post-treatment using an egocentric social network approach in 59 adults (mean age = 30.8 years, range = 18 to 54) with clinically elevated anxiety or depression who were randomized to a cognitive and behavioral positive valence treatment versus waitlist. Participants (egos) named people in their lives (alters) with whom they discussed important issues or spent free time. For each alter, participants rated how close they felt, how close they thought the alter felt to them, and how frequently they communicated. Linear regressions, which included treatment group as a predictor, revealed no group differences in changes in network degree, perceived alter feelings of closeness, or communication frequency, despite prior findings from this sample indicating larger increases in perceived global connectedness in the treatment group. Unexpectedly, the control group reported a greater increase in perceived closeness to alters. Post-hoc analyses revealed this was explained by the treatment group identifying more distal social ties (e.g., extended family, colleagues, roommates) as alters following treatment - an outcome positively associated with global improvements in connectedness. This proof-of-concept study suggests egocentric social network surveys may provide unique information on treatment-related changes in social functioning. Suggestions are provided for adaptations to facilitate application of social network surveys to mental health treatment research.

Prospective Deep Learning-based Quantitative Assessment of Coronary Plaque by CT Angiography Compared with Intravascular Ultrasound.

AIMS: Coronary computed tomography angiography provides noninvasive assessment of coronary stenosis severity and flow impairment. Automated artificial intelligence analysis may assist in precise quantification and characterization of coronary atherosclerosis, enabling patient-specific risk determination and management strategies. This multicenter international study compared an automated deep-learning-based method for segmenting coronary atherosclerosis in coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) against the reference standard of intravascular ultrasound (IVUS). METHODS AND RESULTS: The study included clinically stable patients with known coronary artery disease from 15 centers in the U.S. and Japan. An artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled plaque analysis service was utilized to quantify and characterize total plaque (TPV), vessel, lumen, calcified plaque (CP), non-calcified plaque (NCP), and low attenuation plaque (LAP) volumes derived from CCTA and compared with IVUS measurements in a blinded, core laboratory-adjudicated fashion. In 237 patients, 432 lesions were assessed; mean lesion length was 24.5 mm. Mean IVUS-TPV was 186.0 mm3. AI-enabled plaque analysis on CCTA showed strong correlation and high accuracy when compared with IVUS; correlation coefficient, slope, and Y intercept for TPV were 0.91, 0.99, and 1.87, respectively; for CP volume 0.91, 1.05, and 5.32, respectively; and for NCP volume 0.87, 0.98, and 15.24, respectively. Bland-Altman analysis demonstrated strong agreement with little bias for these measurements. CONCLUSIONS: Artificial intelligence enabled CCTA quantification and characterization of atherosclerosis demonstrated strong agreement with IVUS reference standard measurements. This tool may prove effective for accurate evaluation of coronary atherosclerotic burden and cardiovascular risk assessment.[ClinicalTrails.gov identifier: NCT05138289].

Amplification of positivity for depression and anxiety: Neural prediction of treatment response.

Psychosocial treatments targeting the positive valence system (PVS) in depression and anxiety demonstrate efficacy in enhancing positive affect (PA), but response to treatment varies. We examined whether individual differences in neural activation to positive and negative valence incentive cues underlies differences in benefitting from a PVS-targeted treatment. Individuals with clinically elevated depression and/or anxiety (N = 88, ages 18 to 55) participated in one of two randomized, waitlist-controlled trials of Amplification of Positivity (AMP; NCT02330627, NCT03196544), a cognitive and behavioral intervention targeting the PVS. Participants completed a monetary incentive delay (MID) task during fMRI acquisition at baseline measuring neural activation to the possibility of gaining or losing money. Change in PA from before to after treatment was assessed using the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule. No significant associations were observed between baseline neural activation during gain anticipation and AMP-related changes in PA in regions of interest (striatum and insula) or whole-brain analyses. However, higher baseline striatal and insula activation during loss anticipation was associated with greater increases in PA post-AMP. This study provides preliminary evidence suggesting neural reactivity to negative valence cues may inform who stands to benefit most from treatments targeting the PVS.

Investigating the impact of remote neuroanatomy education during the COVID-19 pandemic using online examination performance in a National Undergraduate Neuroanatomy Competition.

Neuroanatomy is a notoriously challenging subject for medical students to learn. Due to the coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic, anatomical education transitioned to an online format. We assessed student performance in, and attitudes toward, an online neuroanatomy assessment compared to an in-person equivalent, as a marker of the efficacy of remote neuroanatomy education. Participants in the National Undergraduate Neuroanatomy Competition (NUNC) 2021 undertook two online examinations: a neuroanatomically themed multiple-choice question paper and anatomy spotter. Students completed pre- and post-examination questionnaires to gauge their attitudes toward the online competition and prior experience of online anatomical teaching/assessment. To evaluate performance, we compared scores of students who sat the online (2021) and in-person (2017) examinations, using 12 identical neuroradiology questions present in both years. Forty-six percent of NUNC 2021 participants had taken an online anatomy examination in the previous 12 months, but this did not impact examination performance significantly (p > 0.05). There was no significant difference in examination scores between in-person and online examinations using the 12 neuroradiology questions (p = 0.69). Fifty percent of participants found the online format less enjoyable, with 63% citing significantly fewer networking opportunities. The online competition was less stressful for 55% of participants. This study provides some evidence to suggest that student performance is not affected when undertaking online examinations and proposes that online neuroanatomy teaching methods, particularly for neuroradiology, may be equally as effective as in-person approaches within this context. Participants perceived online examinations as less stressful but raised concerns surrounding the networking potential and enjoyment of online events.

Vulnerabilities in social anxiety: Integrating intra- and interpersonal perspectives.

What are the major vulnerabilities in people with social anxiety? What are the most promising directions for translational research pertaining to this condition? The present paper provides an integrative summary of basic and applied translational research on social anxiety, emphasizing vulnerability factors. It is divided into two subsections: intrapersonal and interpersonal. The intrapersonal section synthesizes research relating to (a) self-representations and self-referential processes; (b) emotions and their regulation; and (c) cognitive biases: attention, interpretation and judgment, and memory. The interpersonal section summarizes findings regarding the systems of (a) approach and avoidance, (b) affiliation and social rank, and their implications for interpersonal impairments. Our review suggests that the science of social anxiety and, more generally, psychopathology may be advanced by examining processes and their underlying content within broad psychological systems. Increased interaction between basic and applied researchers to diversify and elaborate different perspectives on social anxiety is necessary for progress.

The relationship between expressive suppression, therapeutic bond, and treatment outcomes of a positive affect intervention for adults with anxiety and/or depression.

Expressive suppression (ES; reducing emotional expression) is linked with reduced social connectedness in individuals with anxiety or depression. One implication is that people who use ES may have difficulty establishing a bond with their therapist which may impede clinical improvement. We examined this hypothesis in 33 adults with clinically elevated anxiety or depression receiving treatment focused on enhancing positive thoughts, emotions, and behaviors. At baseline, participants rated ES for positive and negative emotions during a standardized conversation task designed to generate connectedness. They also rated measures of early (session 3) perceived therapeutic bond and treatment outcomes (i.e. positive affect and social connectedness). ES of positive (r = -.39, p = .018), but not negative (r = .06, p = .747), emotions was negatively associated with therapeutic bond. Therapeutic bond mediated the relationship between greater ES of positive emotions during affiliation and lower post-treatment positive affect, 95% bias-corrected bootstrap confidence interval [-0.021, -0.000], adjusted for pre-treatment positive affect, as well as lower post-treatment social connectedness [-0.397, -0.015]; however, the indirect effect was not significant when accounting for pre-treatment social connectedness (p > .05). ES of positive emotions may be an important factor in the development of therapeutic bond and therefore treatment outcomes for individuals with anxiety or depression.

Positive and negative affect change following psychotherapeutic treatment for anxiety-related disorders: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Anxiety-related disorders feature elevated negative affect (NA), and in some cases, diminished positive affect (PA). It remains unclear how well extant psychotherapies for anxiety-related disorders improve PA versus NA. METHODS: We systematically searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, PubMed, PsychInfo, and Web of Science databases. Records included studies involving (1) patients with a principal or co-principal diagnosis of at least one anxiety-related disorder (i.e., generalized anxiety, social anxiety, panic, agoraphobia, health anxiety, specific phobia, obsessive-compulsive disorder, or posttraumatic stress disorder), and (2) pre- and post-treatment PA and NA scores or a change index between pre- and post-treatment PA and NA scores. Effect sizes were calculated for meta-analyses. RESULTS: Fourteen studies with 1001 adults with an anxiety-related disorder were included. Psychotherapeutic interventions included cognitive behavioral, present-centered, and imagery-based approaches. Treatments reduced NA (g = -0.90; 95%CI [-1.19, -0.61]) to a greater extent than they improved PA (g = 0.27; 95%CI [0.05, 0.59]), Z = -5.26, p < .001. The limited number of studies available precluded analyses of the relationship between changes in affect and symptoms. LIMITATIONS: Results should be considered with caution given the small number and heterogeneity of included studies. CONCLUSIONS: Current psychotherapeutic interventions for anxiety-related disorders may not improve PA and NA to comparable levels.

Chemical basis of microbiome preference in the nematode C. elegans.

Animals are exposed to many microbes in their environment, some of which have been shown to colonize various tissues including the intestine. The composition of the intestinal microbiota affects many aspects of the host's physiology and health. Despite this, very little is known about whether host behavior contributes to the colonization. We approach this question in the nematode C. elegans, which feeds on bacteria and also harbors an intestinal microbiome. We examined the behavior of C. elegans towards CeMbio, a simplified microbiome consisting of twelve strains that represent the bacteria found in the animal's natural environment. We observed that C. elegans raised on E. coli shows a strong preference for three members of CeMbio (Lelliottia amnigena JUb66, Enterobacter hormaechei CEent1, and Pantoea nemavictus BIGb0393) compared to E. coli. Previously, these three bacterial strains have been shown to support faster C. elegans development time than E. coli OP50 and are low colonizers compared to eight other members of CeMbio. We then used gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry to identify that these three bacteria release isoamyl alcohol, a previously described C. elegans chemoattractant. We suggest that C. elegans seeks bacteria that release isoamyl alcohol and support faster growth.

Amplification of Positivity Treatment for Anxiety and Depression: A Randomized Experimental Therapeutics Trial Targeting Social Reward Sensitivity to Enhance Social Connectedness.

BACKGROUND: Social disconnection is common and causes significant impairment in anxiety and depressive disorders, and it does not respond sufficiently to available treatments. The positive valence system supports social bond formation and maintenance but is often hyporesponsive in people with anxiety or depression. We conducted an experimental therapeutics trial to test the hypothesis that targeting positive valence processes through cognitive and behavioral strategies would enhance responsivity to social rewards, a core mechanism underlying social connectedness. METHODS: Sixty-eight adults who endorsed clinically elevated anxiety and/or depression with social impairment were randomized 1:1:1 to 5 (n = 23) or 10 (n = 22) sessions of amplification of positivity (AMP) treatment or waitlist (n = 23). Pre- to posttreatment change in striatal activity (primary outcome) during social reward anticipation was measured using functional magnetic resonance imaging, and reactivity to a social affiliation task (secondary) and self-reported social connectedness (exploratory) were examined. Primary analyses compared AMP (doses combined) versus waitlist. A second aim was to compare the effects of different doses. RESULTS: AMP engaged the hypothesized treatment target, leading to greater striatal activation during anticipation of social rewards versus waitlist (d = 1.01 [95% CI = 0.42-1.61]; largest striatal volume). AMP yielded larger improvements in positive affect and approach behavior during the affiliation task (but not other outcomes) and social connectedness. Larger striatal and social connectedness increases were observed for 5-session versus 10-session AMP (d range = 0.08-1.03). CONCLUSIONS: Teaching people with anxiety or depression strategies to increase positive thoughts, behaviors, and emotions enhances activity in brain regions that govern social reward processing and promotes social connectedness. Social reward sensitivity may be a transdiagnostic target for remediating social disconnection.

Impact of coronary CT image quality on the accuracy of the FFRCT Planner.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the accuracy of a virtual stenting tool based on coronary CT angiography (CCTA) and fractional flow reserve (FFR) derived from CCTA (FFRCT Planner) across different levels of image quality. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Prospective, multicenter, single-arm study of patients with chronic coronary syndromes and lesions with FFR ≤ 0.80. All patients underwent CCTA performed with recent-generation scanners. CCTA image quality was adjudicated using the four-point Likert scale at a per-vessel level by an independent committee blinded to the FFRCT Planner. Patient- and technical-related factors that could affect the FFRCT Planner accuracy were evaluated. The FFRCT Planner was applied mirroring percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) to determine the agreement with invasively measured post-PCI FFR. RESULTS: Overall, 120 patients (123 vessels) were included. Invasive post-PCI FFR was 0.88 ± 0.06 and Planner FFRCT was 0.86 ± 0.06 (mean difference 0.02 FFR units, the lower limit of agreement (LLA) - 0.12, upper limit of agreement (ULA) 0.15). CCTA image quality was assessed as excellent (Likert score 4) in 48.3%, good (Likert score 3) in 45%, and sufficient (Likert score 2) in 6.7% of patients. The FFRCT Planner was accurate across different levels of image quality with a mean difference between FFRCT Planner and invasive post-PCI FFR of 0.02 ± 0.07 in Likert score 4, 0.02 ± 0.07 in Likert score 3 and 0.03 ± 0.08 in Likert score 2, p = 0.695. Nitrate dose ≥ 0.8mg was the only independent factor associated with the accuracy of the FFRCT Planner (95%CI - 0.06 to - 0.001, p = 0.040). CONCLUSION: The FFRCT Planner was accurate in predicting post-PCI FFR independent of CCTA image quality. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: Being accurate in predicting post-PCI FFR across a wide spectrum of CT image quality, the FFRCT Planner could potentially enhance and guide the invasive treatment. Adequate vasodilation during CT acquisition is relevant to improve the accuracy of the FFRCT Planner. KEY POINTS: • The fractional flow reserve derived from coronary CT angiography (FFRCT) Planner is a novel tool able to accurately predict fractional flow reserve after percutaneous coronary intervention. • The accuracy of the FFRCT Planner was confirmed across a wide spectrum of CT image quality. Nitrates dose at CT acquisition was the only independent predictor of its accuracy. • The FFRCT Planner could potentially enhance and guide the invasive treatment.

Coronary computed tomography angiography-based SYNTAX score for comprehensive assessment of advanced coronary artery disease.

BACKGROUND: Since the initial attempt to adapt the anatomical SYNTAX score (aSS) to coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), CCTA imaging technology has evolved, and is currently used as a "decision-maker" for revascularization strategy in complex coronary artery disease (CAD) and has rendered necessary some updating of the aSS to the CCTA modality. OBJECTIVES: The aim is to provide updated definitions of the aSS derived from CCTA in patients with complex CAD undergoing CABG. METHODS: The modifications of CCTA-aSS are the following; (i) updated definition and detection criteria of total occlusion (TO) in CCTA based on length assessment, (ii) inclusion of scoring points for serial bifurcations located in one single coronary segment. (iii) inclusion of weighing score points for lesions located distal to a TO, not visualized on conventional coronary angiography, but visible in CCTA, (iv) removal of thrombus and bridging collateral items from the weighing score, considering the limited diagnostic capability of CCTA in detecting these specific lesion characteristics. RESULTS: the updated CCTA-aSS was tested in a first-in-man study using the sole guidance of CCTA for the planning and performance of bypass surgery in complex CAD (n â€‹= â€‹114). An interobserver analysis showed excellent reproducibility (ICC â€‹= â€‹0.96, 95 â€‹% confidence interval 0.94-0.97). CONCLUSION: The updated CCTA-aSS was implemented in a cohort of patients with complex CAD undergoing CABG with the sole guidance of CCTA and FFRCT and the Inter-reproducibility of the analysis of the updated score was found excellent. The prognostic value of the modified CCTA-aSS will be examined in future studies.

Creating evidence-based engaging online learning resources in neuroanatomy.

Online anatomical resources are rising in popularity since the COVID-19 pandemic, but the pedagogical principles and effectiveness of their use remain unclear. This article aims to demonstrate evidence-informed ways in which fellow educators can create engaging online learning resources in clinical neuroanatomy and compare the effectiveness of text-based and online learning resources. Data were analyzed from the Soton Brain Hub (SBH) YouTube page. Separately, a cross-sectional study comparing the learning gain of using text-based and video resources was done. The knowledge gain and retention were compared between groups using a pre-teaching and post-teaching multiple choice questions. YouTube analytics showed the average time a viewer spends on a video was found to be highly correlated to the length of the video, r = 0.77, p < 0.001 (0.69-0.82). The cross-sectional study indicated a significant difference in mean normalized learning gain of video resources 61.9% (n = 53, CI 56.0-67.7%) versus text resources 49.6% (n = 23, CI 39.1-60.1%) (p = 0.030). However, there was no difference in retained learning gain between video resources 39.1% (n = 29, CI 29.2-49.0%) versus text-based 40.0% (n = 13, CI 23.9-56.1%) (p = 0.919). Students engage most with short videos less than 5 min which reduces the intrinsic load of learning. Online resources are as effective as text-based resources in providing learning gain and retention. In the future, the continued rise in popularity of online learning resources may result in further reduction in traditional face-to-face teaching.

What good are positive emotions for treatment? A replication test of whether trait positive emotionality predicts response to exposure therapy for social anxiety disorder.

BACKGROUND: Positive valence emotions serve functions that may facilitate response to exposure therapy - they encourage approach behavior, diminish perceived threat reactivity, and enhance assimilation of new information in memory. Few studies have examined whether positive emotions predict exposure therapy success and extant findings are mixed. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of an exposure therapy trial for social anxiety disorder to test the hypothesis that patients endorsing higher trait positive emotions at baseline would display the greatest treatment response. N = 152 participants enrolled in a randomized controlled trial of d-cycloserine augmentation completed five sessions of group exposure therapy. Pre-treatment positive emotionality was assessed using the NEO Five-Factor Inventory. Social anxiety symptoms were assessed throughout treatment by blinded evaluators using the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale. RESULTS: Accounting for baseline symptom severity, multilevel growth curve models revealed that patients with higher pre-treatment positive emotionality displayed faster social anxiety symptom reductions and lower scores at 3-month follow-up. This predictive effect remained significant after controlling for baseline depression and extraversion (without the positive emotionality facet). CONCLUSIONS: These findings add to emerging evidence suggesting that explicitly targeting and enhancing positive emotions during exposure to perceived threat may improve treatment outcomes for anxiety and fear-based disorders. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02066792https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02066792.

Impact of Post-PCI FFR Stratified by Coronary Artery.

BACKGROUND: Low fractional flow reserve (FFR) after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has been associated with adverse clinical outcomes. Hitherto, this assessment has been independent of the epicardial vessel interrogated. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to assess the predictive capacity of post-PCI FFR for target vessel failure (TVF) stratified by coronary artery. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and individual patient-level data meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials and observational studies with protocol-recommended post-PCI FFR assessment. The difference in post-PCI FFR between left anterior descending (LAD) and non-LAD arteries was assessed using a random-effect models meta-analysis of mean differences. TVF was defined as a composite of cardiac death, target vessel myocardial infarction, and clinically driven target vessel revascularization. RESULTS: Overall, 3,336 vessels (n = 2,760 patients) with post-PCI FFR measurements were included in 9 studies. The weighted mean post-PCI FFR was 0.89 (95% CI: 0.87-0.90) and differed significantly between coronary vessels (LAD = 0.86; 95% CI: 0.85 to 0.88 vs non-LAD = 0.93; 95% CI: 0.91-0.94; P < 0.001). Post-PCI FFR was an independent predictor of TVF, with its risk increasing by 52% for every reduction of 0.10 FFR units, and this was mainly driven by TVR. The predictive capacity for TVF was poor for LAD arteries (AUC: 0.52; 95% CI: 0.47-0.58) and moderate for non-LAD arteries (AUC: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.59-0.73; LAD vs non-LAD arteries, P = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: The LAD is associated with a lower post-PCI FFR than non-LAD arteries, emphasizing the importance of interpreting post-PCI FFR on a vessel-specific basis. Although a higher post-PCI FFR was associated with improved prognosis, its predictive capacity for events differs between the LAD and non-LAD arteries, being poor in the LAD and moderate in the non-LAD vessels.

Coronary Atherosclerosis Phenotypes in Focal and Diffuse Disease.

BACKGROUND: The interplay between coronary hemodynamics and plaque characteristics remains poorly understood. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to compare atherosclerotic plaque phenotypes between focal and diffuse coronary artery disease (CAD) defined by coronary hemodynamics. METHODS: This multicenter, prospective, single-arm study was conducted in 5 countries. Patients with functionally significant lesions based on an invasive fractional flow reserve ≤0.80 were included. Plaque analysis was performed by using coronary computed tomography angiography and optical coherence tomography. CAD patterns were assessed using motorized fractional flow reserve pullbacks and quantified by pullback pressure gradient (PPG). Focal and diffuse CAD was defined according to the median PPG value. RESULTS: A total of 117 patients (120 vessels) were included. The median PPG was 0.66 (IQR: 0.54-0.75). According to coronary computed tomography angiography analysis, plaque burden was higher in patients with focal CAD (87% ± 8% focal vs 82% ± 10% diffuse; P = 0.003). Calcifications were significantly more prevalent in patients with diffuse CAD (Agatston score per vessel: 51 [IQR: 11-204] focal vs 158 [IQR: 52-341] diffuse; P = 0.024). According to optical coherence tomography analysis, patients with focal CAD had a significantly higher prevalence of circumferential lipid-rich plaque (37% focal vs 4% diffuse; P = 0.001) and thin-cap fibroatheroma (TCFA) (47% focal vs 10% diffuse; P = 0.002). Focal disease defined by PPG predicted the presence of TCFA with an area under the curve of 0.73 (95% CI: 0.58-0.87). CONCLUSIONS: Atherosclerotic plaque phenotypes associate with intracoronary hemodynamics. Focal CAD had a higher plaque burden and was predominantly lipid-rich with a high prevalence of TCFA, whereas calcifications were more prevalent in diffuse CAD. (Precise Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Plan [P3]; NCT03782688).

Changes in wild pig (Sus scrofa) relative abundance, crop damage, and environmental impacts in response to control efforts.

BACKGROUND: As the population and range of wild pigs (Sus scrofa) continue to grow across North America, there has been an increase in environmental and economic damages caused by this invasive species, and control efforts to reduce damages have increased concomitantly. Despite the expanding impacts and costs associated with population control of wild pigs, the extent to which wild pig control reduces populations and diminishes environmental and agricultural damages are rarely quantified. The goal of this study is to quantify changes in wild pig relative abundance and subsequent changes in damages caused by invasive wild pigs in response to control. RESULTS: Using a combination of wild pig population surveys, agricultural damage assessments, and environmental rooting surveys across 19 mixed forest-agricultural properties in South Carolina, USA, we quantified changes in wild pig relative abundance and associated damages over a 3-year period following implementation of a professional control program. Following implementation of control efforts, both the number of wild pig detections and estimated abundance decreased markedly. Within 24 months relative abundance was reduced by an average of ~70%, which resulted in a corresponding decline in environmental rooting damage by ~99%. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that sustained wild pig control efforts can substantially reduce wild pig relative abundance, which in turn resulted in a reduction in environmental rooting damage by wild pigs. Ultimately this study will help fill critical knowledge gaps regarding the efficacy of wild pig control programs and the effort needed to reduce impacts to native ecosystems, livestock, and crops. © 2023 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Spatio-temporal forecasting using wavelet transform-based decision trees with application to air quality and covid-19 forecasting.

We develop a new method that combines a decision tree with a wavelet transform to forecast time series data with spatial spillover effects. The method can not only improve prediction but also give good interpretability of the time series mechanism. As a feature exploration method, the wavelet transform represents information at different resolution levels, which may improve the performance of decision trees. The method is applied to simulated data, air pollution and COVID time series data sets. In the simulation, Haar, LA8, D4 and D6 wavelets are compared, with the Haar wavelet having the best performance. In the air pollution application, by using wavelet transform-based decision trees, the temporal effect of air quality index including autoregressive and seasonal effects can be described as well as the spatial correlation effect. To describe the spillover spatial effect in contiguous regions, a spatial weight is constructed to improve the modeling performance. The results show that air quality index has autoregressive, seasonal and spatial spillover effects. The wavelet transformed variables have a better forecasting performance and enhanced interpretability than the original variables. For the COVID time series of cumulative cases, spatial weighted variables are not selected which shows the lock-down policies are truly effective.