Common co-morbidities in polymyalgia rheumatica and giant cell arteritis: cross-sectional study in UK Biobank.

Objective: The aim was to determine prevalent co-morbidities in cases with PMR or GCA compared with matched controls. Methods: This was a nested, cross-sectional case-control study within the UK Biobank, which recruited participants aged 40-69 years. Case status was defined as self-reported prior diagnosis of PMR or GCA. Ten controls per case were matched for age, sex, ethnicity and assessment centre. Associations with selected self-reported co-morbidities were studied using conditional logistic regression. Results: Of PMR (n = 1036) or GCA (n = 102) cases, 72% were female, 98% White, and 58% reported current use of glucocorticoids. Mean age was 63 years. At the time of the assessment visit, compared with controls, PMR/GCA cases were more likely to report poor general health and at least several days of low mood in the past 2 weeks. PMR was associated with hypothyroidism [odds ratio (OR) = 1.34; 95% CI = 1.07, 1.67] and ever-use of HRT (OR = 1.26; 95% CI = 1.07, 1.47). Regarding common co-morbidities, PMR and GCA were both associated with hypertension (PMR: OR = 1.21; 95% CI = 1.06, 1.39; GCA: OR = 1.86; 95% CI = 1.23, 2.81) and cataract (PMR: OR = 1.51; 95% CI = 1.19, 1.93; GCA: OR = 3.84; 95% CI = 2.23, 6.60). Additionally, GCA was associated with depression (OR = 3.05; 95% CI = 1.59, 5.85). Neither condition was associated with diabetes. Conclusion: Participants with a history of PMR/GCA, including those not currently taking glucocorticoids, rated their health as poorer than matched controls. Some previously described disease associations (hypothyroidism and early menopause) were replicated. Hypertension and cataract, both of which can be exacerbated by long-term glucocorticoid therapy, were over-represented in both diseases, particularly GCA.

Population-based analysis of POT1 variants in a cutaneous melanoma case-control cohort.

Pathogenic germline variants in the protection of telomeres 1 gene (POT1) have been associated with predisposition to a range of tumour types, including melanoma, glioma, leukaemia and cardiac angiosarcoma. We sequenced all coding exons of the POT1 gene in 2928 European-descent melanoma cases and 3298 controls, identifying 43 protein-changing genetic variants. We performed POT1-telomere binding assays for all missense and stop-gained variants, finding nine variants that impair or disrupt protein-telomere complex formation, and we further define the role of variants in the regulation of telomere length and complex formation through molecular dynamics simulations. We determine that POT1 coding variants are a minor contributor to melanoma burden in the general population, with only about 0.5% of melanoma cases carrying germline pathogenic variants in this gene, but should be screened in individuals with a strong family history of melanoma and/or multiple malignancies.

Comprehensive genetic and functional analyses of Fc gamma receptors influence on response to rituximab therapy for autoimmunity.

BACKGROUND: Rituximab is widely used to treat autoimmunity but clinical response varies. Efficacy is determined by the efficiency of B-cell depletion, which may depend on various Fc gamma receptor (FcγR)-dependent mechanisms. Study of FcγR is challenging due to the complexity of the FCGR genetic locus. We sought to assess the effect of FCGR variants on clinical response, B-cell depletion and NK-cell-mediated killing in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). METHODS: A longitudinal cohort study was conducted in 835 patients [RA = 573; SLE = 262]. Clinical outcome measures were two-component disease activity score in 28-joints (2C-DAS28CRP) for RA and British Isles Lupus Assessment Group (BILAG)-2004 major clinical response (MCR) for SLE at 6 months. B-cells were evaluated by highly-sensitive flow cytometry. Single nucleotide polymorphism and copy number variation for genes encoding five FcγRs were measured using multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification. Ex vivo studies assessed NK-cell antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) and FcγR expression. FINDINGS: In RA, carriage of FCGR3A-158V and increased FCGR3A-158V copies were associated with greater 2C-DAS28CRP response (adjusted for baseline 2C-DAS28CRP). In SLE, MCR was associated with increased FCGR3A-158V, OR 1.64 (95% CI 1.12-2.41) and FCGR2C-ORF OR 1.93 (95% CI 1.09-3.40) copies. 236/413 (57%) patients with B-cell data achieved complete depletion. Homozygosity for FCGR3A-158V and increased FCGR3A-158V copies were associated with complete depletion in combined analyses. FCGR3A genotype was associated with rituximab-induced ADCC, and increased NK-cell FcγRIIIa expression was associated with improved clinical response and depletion in vivo. Furthermore, disease status and concomitant therapies impacted both NK-cell FcγRIIIa expression and ADCC. INTERPRETATION: FcγRIIIa is the major low affinity FcγR associated with rituximab response. Increased copies of the FCGR3A-158V allele (higher affinity for IgG1), influences clinical and biological responses to rituximab in autoimmunity. Enhancing FcγR-effector functions could improve the next generation of CD20-depleting therapies and genotyping may stratify patients for optimal treatment protocols. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, Versus Arthritis.

Differences in the management of patients requiring an emergency resection for colonic cancer in two European populations.

BACKGROUND: Patients with colonic cancer who require emergency colonic cancer surgery often experience poorer outcomes compared with their elective counterparts. In this setting, several treatments approaches are available. In 2009, Danish guidelines recommended treatment with stent for obstruction in left-sided tumours as a bridge to surgery, if expertise is accessible. The aim of this study was to compare the use of elective and emergency resections for colonic cancer and postoperative mortality in two similar demographic populations. METHODS: All patients who underwent a major resection for colonic cancer, between 2005 and 2016 in Denmark and Yorkshire (UK) were identified. The proportion undergoing emergency surgery, the proportion receiving a stent procedure before their resection, and 30-day postoperative mortality were compared between the populations. Logistic regression was used to determine changes in the proportion of those undergoing emergency surgery and 30-day postoperative mortality. RESULTS: Out of 45 397 patients treated during the study interval, 41 880 were selected. Emergency surgery decreased in Denmark from 16.6 per cent in 2005-07 to 12.9 per cent in 2014-16, but increased in Yorkshire (13.5 per cent to 16.8 per cent). Danish patients with left-sided tumours were less likely to undergo emergency surgery (risk ratio 0.90, 95 per cent c.i. 0.82 to 0.99) and an increase in stent use coincided with a statistically significant decrease in emergency surgery in these patients. Thirty-day postoperative mortality in all resections (elective and emergency) decreased in both populations, but a larger decrease was observed in Denmark (7.7 per cent to 3.0 per cent in Denmark and 7.1 per cent to 3.3 per cent in Yorkshire). CONCLUSION: Patients in Denmark experienced a reduction in the use of emergency resection and increase in stenting procedures, following the policy implemented in some departments of converting potential emergency resections into elective resections.

Influence of age on surgical treatment and postoperative outcomes of patients with colorectal cancer in Denmark and Yorkshire, England.

AIM: Denmark and Yorkshire are demographically similar and both have undergone changes in their management of colorectal cancer to improve outcomes. The differential provision of surgical treatment, especially in the older age groups, may contribute to the magnitude of improved survival rates. This study aimed to identify differences in the management of colorectal cancer surgery and postoperative outcomes according to patient age between Denmark and Yorkshire. METHOD: This was a retrospective population-based study of colorectal cancer patients diagnosed in Denmark and Yorkshire between 2005 and 2016. Proportions of patients undergoing major surgical resection, postoperative mortality and relative survival were compared between Denmark and Yorkshire across several age groups (18-59, 60-69, 70-79 and ≥80 years) and over time. RESULTS: The use of major surgical resection was higher in Denmark than in Yorkshire, especially for patients aged ≥80 years (70.5% versus 50.5% for colon cancer, 49.3% versus 38.1% for rectal cancer). Thirty-day postoperative mortality for Danish patients aged ≥80 years was significantly higher than that for Yorkshire patients with colonic cancer [OR (95% CI) = 1.22 (1.07, 1.38)] but not for rectal cancer or for 1-year postoperative mortality. Relative survival significantly increased in all patients aged ≥80 years except for Yorkshire patients with colonic cancer. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that there are major differences between the management of elderly patients with colorectal cancer between the two populations. Improved selection for surgery and better peri- and postoperative care in these patients appears to improve long-term outcomes, but may come at the cost of a higher 30-day mortality.

Addressing the variation in adjuvant chemotherapy treatment for colorectal cancer: Can a regional intervention promote national change?

Analysis of routine population-based data has previously shown that patterns of surgical treatment for colorectal cancer can vary widely, but there is limited evidence available to determine if such variation is also seen in the use of chemotherapy. This study quantified variation in adjuvant chemotherapy across both England using cancer registry data and in more detail across the representative Yorkshire and Humber regions. Individuals with Stages II and III colorectal cancer who underwent major resection from 2014 to 2015 were identified. Rates of chemotherapy were calculated from the Systemic Anticancer Treatment database using multilevel logistic regression. Additionally, questionnaires addressing different clinical scenarios were sent to regional oncologists to investigate the treatment preferences of clinicians. The national adjusted chemotherapy treatment rate ranged from 2% to 46% (Stage II cancers), 19% to 81% (Stage III cancers), 24% to 75% (patients aged <70 years) and 5% to 46% (patients aged ≥70 years). Regionally, the rates of treatment and the proportions of treated patients receiving combination chemotherapy varied by stage (Stage II 4%-26% and 0%-55%, Stage III 48%-71% and 40%-84%) and by age (<70 years 35%-68% and 49%-91%; ≥70 years 15%-39% and 6%-75%). Questionnaire responses showed significant variations in opinions for high-risk Stage II patients with both deficient and proficient mismatch repair tumours and Stage IIIB patients aged ≥70 years. Following a review of the evidence, open discussion in our region has enabled a consensus agreement on an algorithm for colorectal cancer that is intended to reduce variation in practice.

National variation in pulmonary metastasectomy for colorectal cancer.

AIM: Evidence on patterns of use of pulmonary metastasectomy in colorectal cancer patients is limited. This population-based study aims to investigate the use of pulmonary metastasectomy in the colorectal cancer population across the English National Health Service (NHS) and quantify the extent of any variations in practice and outcome. METHODS: All adults who underwent a major resection for colorectal cancer in an NHS hospital between 2005 and 2013 were identified in the COloRECTal cancer data Repository (CORECT-R). All inpatient episodes corresponding to pulmonary metastasectomy, occurring within 3 years of the initial colorectal resection, were identified. Multi-level logistic regression was used to determine patient and organizational factors associated with the use of pulmonary metastasectomy for colorectal cancer, and Kaplan-Meier and Cox models were used to assess survival following pulmonary metastasectomy. RESULTS: In all, 173 354 individuals had a major colorectal resection over the study period, with 3434 (2.0%) undergoing pulmonary resection within 3 years. The frequency of pulmonary metastasectomy increased from 1.2% of patients undergoing major colorectal resection in 2005 to 2.3% in 2013. Significant variation was observed across hospital providers in the risk-adjusted rates of pulmonary metastasectomy (0.0%-6.8% of patients). Overall 5-year survival following pulmonary resection was 50.8%, with 30-day and 90-day mortality of 0.6% and 1.2% respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows significant variation in the rates of pulmonary metastasectomy for colorectal cancer across the English NHS.

Variation in the Use of Resection for Colorectal Cancer Liver Metastases.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate variation in the frequency of resections for colorectal cancer liver metastases across the English NHS. BACKGROUND: Previous research has shown significant variation in access to liver resection surgery across the English NHS. This study uses more recent data to identify whether inequalities in access to liver resection still persist. METHODS: All adults who underwent a major resection for colorectal cancer in an NHS hospital between 2005 and 2012 were identified in the COloRECTal cancer data Repository (CORECT-R). All episodes of care, occurring within 3 years of the initial bowel operation, corresponding to liver resection were identified. RESULT: During the study period 157,383 patients were identified as undergoing major resection for a colorectal tumor, of whom 7423 (4.7%) underwent ≥1 liver resections. The resection rate increased from 4.1% in 2005, reaching a plateau around 5% by 2012. There was significant variation in the rate of liver resection across hospitals (2.1%-12.2%). Patients with synchronous metastases who have their primary colorectal resection in a hospital with an onsite specialist hepatobiliary team were more likely to receive a liver resection (odds ratio 1.22; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-1.35) than those treated in one without. This effect was absent in resection for metachronous metastases. CONCLUSIONS: This study presents the largest reported population-based analysis of liver resection rates in colorectal cancer patients. Significant variation has been observed in patient and hospital characteristics and the likelihood of patients receiving a liver resection, with the data showing that proximity to a liver resection service is as important a factor as deprivation.

Rectal cancer in old age -is it appropriately managed? Evidence from population-based analysis of routine data across the English national health service.

BACKGROUND: There is significant debate as to where to draw the line between undertreating older rectal cancer patients and minimising treatment risks. This study sought to examine the use of radical rectal cancer treatments and associated outcomes in relation to age across the English NHS. METHODS: Patient, tumour and treatment characteristics for all patients diagnosed with a first primary rectal cancer in England between 1st April 2009 and 31st December 2014 were obtained from the CORECT-R data repository. Descriptive analyses and adjusted logistic regression models were undertaken to examine any association between age and the use of major resection and post-surgical outcomes. Funnel plots were used to show variation in adjusted rates of major resection. RESULTS: The proportion of patients who underwent a major surgical resection fell from 66.5% to 31.7%, amongst those aged <70 and aged ≥80 respectively. After adjustment, 30-day post-operative mortality, failure to rescue and prolonged length of stay were significantly higher among the oldest group when compared to the youngest. Patient reported outcomes were not significantly worse amongst older patients. Significant variation was observed in adjusted surgical resection rates in the oldest patients between NHS Trusts. The probability of death due to cancer was comparable across all age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Older patients who are selected for surgery have good outcomes, often comparable to their younger counterparts. Significant variation in the treatment of older patients could not be explained by differences in measured characteristics and required further investigation.

Publisher Correction: Novel pleiotropic risk loci for melanoma and nevus density implicate multiple biological pathways.

The original version of this Article contained errors in the spelling of the authors Fan Liu and M. Arfan Ikram, which were incorrectly given as Fan Lui and Arfan M. Ikram. In addition, the original version of this Article also contained errors in the author affiliations which are detailed in the associated Publisher Correction.

Novel pleiotropic risk loci for melanoma and nevus density implicate multiple biological pathways.

The total number of acquired melanocytic nevi on the skin is strongly correlated with melanoma risk. Here we report a meta-analysis of 11 nevus GWAS from Australia, Netherlands, UK, and USA comprising 52,506 individuals. We confirm known loci including MTAP, PLA2G6, and IRF4, and detect novel SNPs in KITLG and a region of 9q32. In a bivariate analysis combining the nevus results with a recent melanoma GWAS meta-analysis (12,874 cases, 23,203 controls), SNPs near GPRC5A, CYP1B1, PPARGC1B, HDAC4, FAM208B, DOCK8, and SYNE2 reached global significance, and other loci, including MIR146A and OBFC1, reached a suggestive level. Overall, we conclude that most nevus genes affect melanoma risk (KITLG an exception), while many melanoma risk loci do not alter nevus count. For example, variants in TERC and OBFC1 affect both traits, but other telomere length maintenance genes seem to affect melanoma risk only. Our findings implicate multiple pathways in nevogenesis.

Prediction of treatment response in rheumatoid arthritis patients using genome-wide SNP data.

Although a number of treatments are available for rheumatoid arthritis (RA), each of them shows a significant nonresponse rate in patients. Therefore, predicting a priori the likelihood of treatment response would be of great patient benefit. Here, we conducted a comparison of a variety of statistical methods for predicting three measures of treatment response, between baseline and 3 or 6 months, using genome-wide SNP data from RA patients available from the MAximising Therapeutic Utility in Rheumatoid Arthritis (MATURA) consortium. Two different treatments and 11 different statistical methods were evaluated. We used 10-fold cross validation to assess predictive performance, with nested 10-fold cross validation used to tune the model hyperparameters when required. Overall, we found that SNPs added very little prediction information to that obtained using clinical characteristics only, such as baseline trait value. This observation can be explained by the lack of strong genetic effects and the relatively small sample sizes available; in analysis of simulated and real data, with larger effects and/or larger sample sizes, prediction performance was much improved. Overall, methods that were consistent with the genetic architecture of the trait were able to achieve better predictive ability than methods that were not. For treatment response in RA, methods that assumed a complex underlying genetic architecture achieved slightly better prediction performance than methods that assumed a simplified genetic architecture.

Assessing the Incremental Contribution of Common Genomic Variants to Melanoma Risk Prediction in Two Population-Based Studies.

It is unclear to what degree genomic and traditional (phenotypic and environmental) risk factors overlap in their prediction of melanoma risk. We evaluated the incremental contribution of common genomic variants (in pigmentation, nevus, and other pathways) and their overlap with traditional risk factors, using data from two population-based case-control studies from Australia (n = 1,035) and the United Kingdom (n = 1,460) that used the same questionnaires. Polygenic risk scores were derived from 21 gene regions associated with melanoma and odds ratios from published meta-analyses. Logistic regression models were adjusted for age, sex, center, and ancestry. Adding the polygenic risk score to a model with traditional risk factors increased the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) by 2.3% (P = 0.003) for Australia and by 2.8% (P = 0.002) for Leeds. Gene variants in the pigmentation pathway, particularly MC1R, were responsible for most of the incremental improvement. In a cross-tabulation of polygenic by traditional tertile risk scores, 59% (Australia) and 49% (Leeds) of participants were categorized in the same (concordant) tertile. Of participants with low traditional risk, 9% (Australia) and 21% (Leeds) had high polygenic risk. Testing of genomic variants can identify people who are susceptible to melanoma despite not having a traditional phenotypic risk profile.

Genome-wide association study of response to methotrexate in early rheumatoid arthritis patients.

Methotrexate (MTX) monotherapy is a common first treatment for rheumatoid arthritis (RA), but many patients do not respond adequately. In order to identify genetic predictors of response, we have combined data from two consortia to carry out a genome-wide study of response to MTX in 1424 early RA patients of European ancestry. Clinical endpoints were change from baseline to 6 months after starting treatment in swollen 28-joint count, tender 28-joint count, C-reactive protein and the overall 3-component disease activity score (DAS28). No single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) reached genome-wide statistical significance for any outcome measure. The strongest evidence for association was with rs168201 in NRG3 (p = 10-7 for change in DAS28). Some support was also seen for association with ZMIZ1, previously highlighted in a study of response to MTX in juvenile idiopathic arthritis. Follow-up in two smaller cohorts of 429 and 177 RA patients did not support these findings, although these cohorts were more heterogeneous.

Publisher correction: Functional characterization of a multi-cancer risk locus on chr5p15.33 reveals regulation of TERT by ZNF148.

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/ncomms15034.

Functional characterization of a multi-cancer risk locus on chr5p15.33 reveals regulation of TERT by ZNF148.

Genome wide association studies (GWAS) have mapped multiple independent cancer susceptibility loci to chr5p15.33. Here, we show that fine-mapping of pancreatic and testicular cancer GWAS within one of these loci (Region 2 in CLPTM1L) focuses the signal to nine highly correlated SNPs. Of these, rs36115365-C associated with increased pancreatic and testicular but decreased lung cancer and melanoma risk, and exhibited preferred protein-binding and enhanced regulatory activity. Transcriptional gene silencing of this regulatory element repressed TERT expression in an allele-specific manner. Proteomic analysis identifies allele-preferred binding of Zinc finger protein 148 (ZNF148) to rs36115365-C, further supported by binding of purified recombinant ZNF148. Knockdown of ZNF148 results in reduced TERT expression, telomerase activity and telomere length. Our results indicate that the association with chr5p15.33-Region 2 may be explained by rs36115365, a variant influencing TERT expression via ZNF148 in a manner consistent with elevated TERT in carriers of the C allele.

A New Role for ERα: Silencing via DNA Methylation of Basal, Stem Cell, and EMT Genes.

Resistance to hormonal therapies is a major clinical problem in the treatment of estrogen receptor α-positive (ERα+) breast cancers. Epigenetic marks, namely DNA methylation of cytosine at specific CpG sites (5mCpG), are frequently associated with ERα+ status in human breast cancers. Therefore, ERα may regulate gene expression in part via DNA methylation. This hypothesis was evaluated using a panel of breast cancer cell line models of antiestrogen resistance. Microarray gene expression profiling was used to identify genes normally silenced in ERα+ cells but derepressed upon exposure to the demethylating agent decitabine, derepressed upon long-term loss of ERα expression, and resuppressed by gain of ERα activity/expression. ERα-dependent DNA methylation targets (n = 39) were enriched for ERα-binding sites, basal-up/luminal-down markers, cancer stem cell, epithelial-mesenchymal transition, and inflammatory and tumor suppressor genes. Kaplan-Meier survival curve and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses indicated that these targets predicted poor distant metastasis-free survival among a large cohort of breast cancer patients. The basal breast cancer subtype markers LCN2 and IFI27 showed the greatest inverse relationship with ERα expression/activity and contain ERα-binding sites. Thus, genes that are methylated in an ERα-dependent manner may serve as predictive biomarkers in breast cancer. IMPLICATIONS: ERα directs DNA methylation-mediated silencing of specific genes that have biomarker potential in breast cancer subtypes. Mol Cancer Res; 15(2); 152-64. ©2016 AACR.

Memory as embodiment: The case of modality and serial short-term memory.

Classical explanations for the modality effect-superior short-term serial recall of auditory compared to visual sequences-typically recur to privileged processing of information derived from auditory sources. Here we critically appraise such accounts, and re-evaluate the nature of the canonical empirical phenomena that have motivated them. Three experiments show that the standard account of modality in memory is untenable, since auditory superiority in recency is often accompanied by visual superiority in mid-list serial positions. We explain this simultaneous auditory and visual superiority by reference to the way in which perceptual objects are formed in the two modalities and how those objects are mapped to speech motor forms to support sequence maintenance and reproduction. Specifically, stronger obligatory object formation operating in the standard auditory form of sequence presentation compared to that for visual sequences leads both to enhanced addressability of information at the object boundaries and reduced addressability for that in the interior. Because standard visual presentation does not lead to such object formation, such sequences do not show the boundary advantage observed for auditory presentation, but neither do they suffer loss of addressability associated with object information, thereby affording more ready mapping of that information into a rehearsal cohort to support recall. We show that a range of factors that impede this perceptual-motor mapping eliminate visual superiority while leaving auditory superiority unaffected. We make a general case for viewing short-term memory as an embodied, perceptual-motor process.

Genome-wide meta-analysis identifies five new susceptibility loci for cutaneous malignant melanoma.

Thirteen common susceptibility loci have been reproducibly associated with cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM). We report the results of an international 2-stage meta-analysis of CMM genome-wide association studies (GWAS). This meta-analysis combines 11 GWAS (5 previously unpublished) and a further three stage 2 data sets, totaling 15,990 CMM cases and 26,409 controls. Five loci not previously associated with CMM risk reached genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10(-8)), as did 2 previously reported but unreplicated loci and all 13 established loci. Newly associated SNPs fall within putative melanocyte regulatory elements, and bioinformatic and expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) data highlight candidate genes in the associated regions, including one involved in telomere biology.

Association of HLA-DRB1 amino acid residues with giant cell arteritis: genetic association study, meta-analysis and geo-epidemiological investigation.

INTRODUCTION: Giant cell arteritis (GCA) is an autoimmune disease commonest in Northern Europe and Scandinavia. Previous studies report various associations with HLA-DRB1*04 and HLA-DRB1*01; HLA-DRB1 alleles show a gradient in population prevalence within Europe. Our aims were (1) to determine which amino acid residues within HLA-DRB1 best explained HLA-DRB1 allele susceptibility and protective effects in GCA, seen in UK data combined in meta-analysis with previously published data, and (2) to determine whether the incidence of GCA in different countries is associated with the population prevalence of the HLA-DRB1 alleles that we identified in our meta-analysis. METHODS: GCA patients from the UK GCA Consortium were genotyped by using single-strand oligonucleotide polymerization, allele-specific polymerase chain reaction, and direct sequencing. Meta-analysis was used to compare and combine our results with published data, and public databases were used to identify amino acid residues that may explain observed susceptibility/protective effects. Finally, we determined the relationship of HLA-DRB1*04 population carrier frequency and latitude to GCA incidence reported in different countries. RESULTS: In our UK data (225 cases and 1378 controls), HLA-DRB1*04 carriage was associated with GCA susceptibility (odds ratio (OR) = 2.69, P = 1.5×10(-11)), but HLA-DRB1*01 was protective (adjusted OR = 0.55, P = 0.0046). In meta-analysis combined with 14 published studies (an additional 691 cases and 4038 controls), protective effects were seen from HLA-DR2, which comprises HLA-DRB1*15 and HLA-DRB1*16 (OR = 0.65, P = 8.2×10(-6)) and possibly from HLA-DRB1*01 (OR = 0.73, P = 0.037). GCA incidence (n = 17 countries) was associated with population HLA-DRB1*04 allele frequency (P = 0.008; adjusted R(2) = 0.51 on univariable analysis, adjusted R(2) = 0.62 after also including latitude); latitude also made an independent contribution. CONCLUSIONS: We confirm that HLA-DRB1*04 is a GCA susceptibility allele. The susceptibility data are best explained by amino acid risk residues V, H, and H at positions 11, 13, and 33, contrary to previous suggestions of amino acids in the second hypervariable region. Worldwide, GCA incidence was independently associated both with population frequency of HLA-DRB1*04 and with latitude itself. We conclude that variation in population HLA-DRB1*04 frequency may partly explain variations in GCA incidence and that HLA-DRB1*04 may warrant investigation as a potential prognostic or predictive biomarker.