SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence and Vaccine Uptake among Pregnant Women at First Antenatal Care Visits in Malawi.

Many SARS-CoV-2 infections are asymptomatic, thus reported cases underestimate actual cases. To improve estimates, we conducted surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among pregnant women attending their first antenatal care visit (ANC1) from June 2021 through May 2022. We administered a questionnaire to collect demographic, risk factors, and COVID-19 vaccine status information and tested dried blood spots for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Although <1% of ANC1 participants reported having had COVID-19, monthly SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence increased from 15.4% (95% CI: 10.5-21.5) in June 2021 to 65.5% (95% CI: 55.5-73.7) in May 2022. Although COVID-19 vaccination was available in March 2021, uptake remained low, reaching a maximum of 9.5% (95% CI: 5.7-14.8) in May 2022. Results of ANC1 serosurveillance provided prevalence estimates helpful in understanding this population case burden that was available through self-report and national case reports. To improve vaccine uptake, efforts to address fears and misconceptions regarding COVID-19 vaccines are needed.

Awareness of and willingness to use oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention among sexually active adults in Malawi: results from the 2020 Malawi population-based HIV impact assessment.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) for all populations at substantial risk of HIV infection. Understanding PrEP awareness and interest is crucial for designing PrEP programs; however, data are lacking in sub-Saharan Africa. In Malawi, oral PrEP was introduced in 2018. We analyzed data from the 2020 Malawi Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (MPHIA) to assess PrEP awareness and factors associated with PrEP interest in Malawi. METHODS: MPHIA 2020 was a national cross-sectional household-based survey targeting adults aged 15 + years. Oral PrEP was first described to the survey participants as taking a daily pill to reduce the chance of getting HIV. To assess awareness, participants were asked if they had ever heard of PrEP and to assess interest, were asked if they would take PrEP to prevent HIV, regardless of previous PrEP knowledge. Only sexually active HIV-negative participants are included in this analysis. We used multivariable logistic regression to assess sociodemographic factors and behaviors associated with PrEP interest. All results were weighted. RESULTS: We included 13,995 HIV-negative sexually active participants; median age was 29 years old. Overall, 15.0%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 14.2-15.9% of participants were aware of PrEP. More males (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.3, 95% CI: 1.2-1.5), those with secondary (aOR: 1.5, 95% CI: 1.2-2.0) or post-secondary (aOR: 3.4, 95% CI: 2.4-4.9) education and the wealthiest (aOR: 1.6, 95% CI: 1.2-2.0) were aware of PrEP than female, those without education and least wealthy participants, respectively. Overall, 73.0% (95% CI: 71.8-74.1%) of participants were willing to use PrEP. Being male (aOR: 1.2; 95% CI: 1.1-1.3) and having more than one sexual partner (aOR: 1.7 95% CI: 1.4-1.9), were associated higher willingness to use PrEP. CONCLUSIONS: In this survey, prior PrEP knowledge and use were low while PrEP interest was high. High risk sexual behavior was associated with willingness to use PrEP. Strategies to increase PrEP awareness and universal access, may reduce HIV transmission.

Trends in HIV prevalence, incidence, and progress towards the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets in Malawi among individuals aged 15-64 years: population-based HIV impact assessments, 2015-16 and 2020-21.

BACKGROUND: In 2014, UNAIDS set the goal of ending the AIDS epidemic by 2030 through the achievement of testing and treatment cascade targets. To evaluate progress achieved and highlight persisting gaps in HIV epidemic control in Malawi, we aimed to compare key indicators (prevalence, incidence, viral load suppression, and UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets) from the 2015-16 and 2020-21 Malawi Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) survey results. METHODS: The Malawi PHIAs were nationally representative, cross-sectional surveys with a two-stage cluster sampling design. The first survey was conducted between Nov 27, 2015, and Aug 26, 2016; the second survey was conducted between Jan 15, 2020, and April 26, 2021. Our analysis included survey participants aged 15-64 years. Participants were interviewed and a 14 mL blood sample was collected and tested for HIV infection using the national rapid testing algorithm. For each survey, we estimated key HIV epidemic indicators and achievement of 95-95-95 targets. The risk ratio (RR) of the indicators between surveys were computed and considered significant at a confidence level of 0·05. All results were weighted, and self-reported awareness and treatment status were adjusted to account for detection of antiretrovirals. FINDINGS: Our analysis included 17 187 participants aged 15-64 years in 2015-16 and 21 208 in 2020-21 who participated in the surveys and blood draw. In the 2020-21 survey, 88·4% (95% CI 86·7-90·0) of people living with HIV were aware of their HIV-positive status; of those aware, 97·8% (97·1-98·5) were on antiretroviral therapy; and of those on treatment, 96·9% (95·9-97·7) were virally suppressed. Between surveys, the national HIV prevalence decreased significantly from 10·6% (10·0-11·2) to 8·9% (8·4-9·5) with RR 0·85 (95% CI 0·78-0·92; p<0·0001). The annual HIV incidence decreased from 0·37% (0·20-0·53) to 0·22% (0·11-0·34) with RR 0·61 (95% CI 0·31-1·20; p=0·15). The population viral load suppression increased from 68·3% (66·0-70·7) in 2015-16 to 87·0% (85·3-88·5) in 2020-21 (RR 1·27 [95% CI 1·22-1·32]; p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: These results suggest that Malawi had already surpassed the UNAIDS viral load suppression target for 2030 (85·7%) by 2020-21. Through strategies and evidence-informed interventions implemented in the last half decade, especially scale-up of effective HIV treatment, Malawi has made tremendous progress, including decreasing HIV prevalence and incidence and achieving both the second and third 95 targets ahead of 2030. To address the first 95, efforts in HIV diagnosis should focus on males and younger age groups. There is a continued need for effective linkage to care, retention on antiretroviral therapy, and adherence support to maintain and build on progress. FUNDING: US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief through the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Progress towards the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets among persons aged 50 and older living with HIV in 13 African countries.

INTRODUCTION: Achieving optimal HIV outcomes, as measured by global 90-90-90 targets, that is awareness of HIV-positive status, receipt of antiretroviral (ARV) therapy among aware and viral load (VL) suppression among those on ARVs, respectively, is critical. However, few data from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are available on older people (50+) living with HIV (OPLWH). We examined 90-90-90 progress by age, 15-49 (as a comparison) and 50+ years, with further analyses among 50+ (55-59, 60-64, 65+ vs. 50-54), in 13 countries (Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe). METHODS: Using data from nationally representative Population-based HIV Impact Assessments, conducted between 2015and 2019, participants from randomly selected households provided demographic and clinical information and whole blood specimens for HIV serology, VL and ARV testing. Survey weighted outcomes were estimated for 90-90-90 targets. Country-specific Poisson regression models examined 90-90-90 variation among OPLWH age strata. RESULTS: Analyses included 24,826 HIV-positive individuals (15-49 years: 20,170; 50+ years: 4656). The first, second and third 90 outcomes were achieved in 1, 10 and 5 countries, respectively, by those aged 15-49, while OPLWH achieved outcomes in 3, 13 and 12 countries, respectively. Among those aged 15-49, women were more likely to achieve 90-90-90 targets than men; however, among OPLWH, men were more likely to achieve first and third 90 targets than women, with second 90 achievement being equivalent. Country-specific 90-90-90 regression models among OPLWH demonstrated minimal variation by age stratum across 13 countries. Among OLPWH, no first 90 target differences were noted by age strata; three countries varied in the second 90 by older age strata but not in a consistent direction; one country showed higher achievement of the third 90 in an older age stratum. CONCLUSIONS: While OPLWH in these 13 countries were slightly more likely than younger people to be aware of their HIV-positive status (first 90), this target was not achieved in most countries. However, OPLWH achieved treatment (second 90) and VL suppression (third 90) targets in more countries than PLWH <50. Findings support expanded HIV testing, prevention and treatment services to meet ongoing OPLWH health needs in SSA.

Rapid scale-up of COVID-19 training for frontline health workers in 11 African countries.

BACKGROUND: The global spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus highlights both the importance of frontline healthcare workers (HCW) in pandemic response and their heightened vulnerability during infectious disease outbreaks. Adequate preparation, including the development of human resources for health (HRH) is essential to an effective response. ICAP at Columbia University (ICAP) partnered with Resolve to Save Lives and MOHs to design an emergency training initiative for frontline HCW in 11 African countries, using a competency-based backward-design approach and tailoring training delivery and health facility selection based on country context, location and known COVID-19 community transmission. METHODS: Pre- and post-test assessments were conducted on participants completing the COVID-19 training. Parametric and non-parametric methods were used to examine average individual-level changes from pre- to post-test, and compare performance between countries, cadres, sex and facility types. A post-evaluation online training survey using Qualtrics was distributed to assess participants' satisfaction and explore training relevance and impact on their ability to address COVID-19 in their facilities and communities. RESULTS: A total of 8797 HCW at 945 health facilities were trained between June 2020 and October 2020. Training duration ranged from 1 to 8 days (median: 3 days) and consisted of in person, virtual or self guided training. Of the 8105 (92%) HCW working at health facilities, the majority (62%) worked at secondary level facilities as these were the HF targeted for COVID-19 patients. Paired pre- and post-test results were available for 2370 (25%) trainees, and 1768 (18%) participants completed the post-evaluation training survey. On average, participants increased their pre- to post-test scores by 15 percentage points (95% CI 0.14, 0.15). While confidence in their ability to manage COVID-19 was high following the training, respondents reported that lack of access to testing kits (55%) and PPE (50%), limited space in the facility to isolate patients (45%), and understaffing (39%) were major barriers. CONCLUSION: Ongoing investment in health systems and focused attention to health workforce capacity building is critical to outbreak response. Successful implementation of an emergency response training such as this short-term IPC training initiative in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, requires speed, rigor and flexibility of its design and delivery while building on pre-existing systems, resources, and partnerships.

Depressive symptoms, HIV-related stigma and ART adherence among caregivers of children in vulnerable households in rural southern Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have explored the association between depressive symptoms, HIV infection and stigma in vulnerable populations. The objective of this study is to examine factors associated with depressive symptoms among caregivers living in vulnerable households in Malawi and assess how reported depressive symptoms and other factors affect ART adherence among caregivers who report testing positive for HIV and currently on ART. METHODS: We interviewed 818 adult caregivers of children aged 0-17 years living in vulnerable households in 24 health facility catchment areas in five districts in rural southern Malawi in 2016-2017. Vulnerable households had either economic and food insecurity, or chronic illness. Questions on five depressive symptoms were used. ART adherence was self-report of not forgetting to take ART medication in the last week. Perceived and anticipated measures of stigma were used. Multivariable linear and logistic regressions documented relationships between depressive symptoms, self-reported HIV status, HIV-related stigma, and ART adherence. RESULTS: Most caregivers were women (86.2%); about one third had no spouse or live-in partner. Fifty-seven percent of caregivers reported having three or more depressive symptoms. Forty-one percent of caregivers reported testing positive for HIV. Self-reported HIV positive status was associated with depressive symptoms (adjusted coeff = 0.355, p-value <0.001), which were in turn associated with poorer ART adherence among caregivers (aOR 0.639, p-value = 0.023). HIV-related stigma was also associated with depressive symptoms for caregivers who reported having HIV (coeff = 0.302, p-value = 0.028) and those who reported testing negative for HIV (coeff = 0.187, p-value <0.001). Having social support was associated with lower depressive symptoms (coeff = -0.115, p = 0.007). HIV-related stigma, having social support, and other socio-demographic characteristics were not found to be associated with ART adherence. CONCLUSIONS: Addressing mental health among caregivers in vulnerable households may be an important step toward achieving viral suppression among vulnerable populations living with HIV in Malawi. Integrating depression screening into HIV care and treatment protocols could be a promising intervention to improve longer-term outcomes.

Long-term retention on antiretroviral therapy among infants, children, adolescents and adults in Malawi: A cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: We examine long-term retention of adults, adolescents and children on antiretroviral therapy under different HIV treatment guidelines in Malawi. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Adults and children starting ART between 2005 and 2015 in 21 health facilities in southern Malawi. METHODS: We used survival analysis to assess retention at clinic level, Cox regression to examine risk factors for loss to follow up, and competing risk analysis to assess long-term outcomes of people on antiretroviral therapy (ART). RESULTS: We included 132,274 individuals in our analysis, totalling 270,256 person years of follow up (PYFU; median per patient 1.3, interquartile range (IQR) 0.26-3.1), 62% were female and the median age was 32 years. Retention on ART was lower in the first year on ART compared to subsequent years for all guideline periods and age groups. Infants (0-3 years), adolescents and young adults (15-24 years) were at highest risk of LTFU. Comparing the different calendar periods of ART initiation we found that retention improved initially, but remained stable thereafter. CONCLUSION: Even though the number of patients and the burden on health care system increased substantially during the study period of rapid ART expansion, retention on ART improved in the early years of ART provision, but gains in retention were not maintained over 5 years on ART. Reducing high attrition in the first year of ART should remain a priority for ART programs, and so should addressing poor retention among adolescents, young adults and men.

The Effect of Monitoring Viral Load and Tracing Patients Lost to Follow-up on the Course of the HIV Epidemic in Malawi: A Mathematical Model.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces HIV transmission, but treated patients may again become infectious. We used a mathematical model to determine whether ART as prevention is more effective if viral load (VL) is routinely monitored and patients lost to follow-up (LTFU) traced. METHODS: We simulated ART cohorts to parameterize a deterministic transmission model calibrated to Malawi. We investigated the following strategies for improving treatment and retention: monitoring VL every 12 or 24 months, tracing patients LTFU, or a generic strategy leading to uninterrupted treatment. We tested 3 scenarios, where ART scale-up continues at current (Universal ART), reduced (Failed scale-up), or accelerated speed (Test&Treat). RESULTS: In the Universal ART scenario, between 2017 and 2020 (2050), monitoring VL every 24 months prevented 0.5% (0.9%), monitoring every 12 months prevented 0.8% (1.4%), tracing prevented 0.3% (0.5%), and uninterrupted treatment prevented 5.5% (9.9%) of HIV infections. Failed scale-up resulted in 25% more infections than the Universal ART scenarios, whereas Test&Treat resulted in 7%-8% less. CONCLUSIONS: Test&Treat reduces transmission of HIV, despite individual cases of treatment failure and ART interruption. Whereas viral load monitoring and tracing have only a minor impact on transmission, interventions that aim to minimize treatment interruptions can further increase the preventive effect of ART.

Weight gain of HIV-exposed, uninfected children born before and after introduction of the 'Option B+' programme in Malawi.

OBJECTIVE: To compare birth weight and weight gain in HIV-exposed, uninfected (HEU) infants up to 24 months old, who enrolled in the Malawian national HIV care clinic (HCC) programme either before or after Option B+ (OB+) was implemented. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: HIV-exposed infants enrol in the HCC programme as soon as possible after birth and are followed up to at least 24 months old. This analysis includes HEU infants with recorded birth weight, date of birth, gender and at least one follow-up weight measurement from 21 health facilities in central and southern Malawi (January 2010-December 2014). Weight-for-age z scores (WAZ) were derived and compared by birth period using linear regression at birth and mixed effects models for postnatal weight gain up to 24 months old. RESULTS: Of 6845 HEU infants included in this study, 88.5% were born after OB+. The proportion of infants exposed in utero to combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) significantly increased after OB+ was implemented, and infants were exposed to ART for a longer time. There was no significant difference in WAZ at birth (P = 0.654) among HEU infants by birth period, but postnatal weight gain was faster among HEU infants born in the Option B+ period than infants born pre-Option B+. CONCLUSION: Birth weight was not affected by longer exposure to ART during pregnancy after OB+ was introduced, when weight gain in HEU infants was faster, possibly because their mothers were in better health.

"I found that I was well and strong": Women's motivations for remaining on ART under Option B+ in Malawi.

Most Malawian women who start ART under Option B+ are still in care three years later, a higher than average adherence rate for life-threatening chronic disease treatments, worldwide (50%). We asked 75 Malawian on ART their motivations for remaining in treatment, and what barriers they overcame. Focus groups and interviews included 75 women on ART for 6+ months, at 12 health facilities. Four main motivations for continuing ART emerged: 1) evidence that ART improved their own and their children's health; 2) strong desire to be healthy and keep their children healthy; 3) treatment was socially supported; 4) HIV/ART counselling effectively showed benefits of ART and told women what to expect. Women surmounted the following barriers: 1) stigma; 2) health care system; 3) economic; 4) side effects. Women stayed on ART because they believed it works. Future interventions should focus on emphasizing ART's effectiveness, along with other services they provide.

Patterns of caesarean section in HIV infected and non-infected women in Malawi: is caesarean section used for PMTCT?

BACKGROUND: Caesarean section (CS) is not recommended for PMTCT in Malawi HIV Guidelines, contrary to most high-income countries where CS is indicated if viral suppression is sub-optimal pre-delivery. We describe patterns of CS in HIV-infected and uninfected women in Malawi and explored if insight into the use of Elective CS (ECS) for PMTCT could be obtained. METHODS: We used routinely collected data from individual medical records from 17 large health facilities in the central and southern regions of Malawi, from January 2010 to December 2013. We included data from maternity registers from all HIV-positive women, and randomly selected around every fourth woman with negative or unknown HIV status. We used multivariable logistic regressions and cluster-based robust standard errors to examine independent associations of patient- and facility characteristics with CS and ECS. RESULTS: We included 62,033 women in the analysis. The weighted percentage of women who had a spontaneous vaginal delivery was 80.0% (CI 95% 79.5-80.4%); 2.4% (95% CI 2.3-2.6%) had a vacuum extraction; 2.3% (95% CI 2.2-2.5%) had a vaginal breech delivery; 14.0% (95% CI 13.6-14.4%) had a CS while for 1.3% (95% CI 1.2-1.4%) the mode of delivery was not recorded. Prevalence of CS without recorded medical or obstetric indication (ECS) was 5.1%, (n = 3152). Presence of maternal and infant complications and older age were independently associated with CS delivery. HIV-positive women were less likely to have ECS than HIV negative women (aOR 0.65; 95%-CI 0.57-0.74). Among HIV-positive women, those on antiretrovirals (ARV's) for ≥4 weeks prior to delivery were less likely to have ECS than HIV-positive women who had not received ARVs during pregnancy (aOR 0.81; 95% CI 0.68-0.96). CONCLUSIONS: The pattern of CS's in Malawi is largely determined by maternal and infant complications. Positive HIV status was negatively associated with CS delivery, possibly because health care workers were concerned about the risk of occupational HIV transmission and the known increased risk of post-operative complications. Our results leave open the possibility that CS is practiced to prevent MTCT given that ECS was more common among women at high risk of MTCT due to no or short exposure to ARV's.

HIV transmission and retention in care among HIV-exposed children enrolled in Malawi's prevention of mother-to-child transmission programme.

INTRODUCTION: In Malawi, HIV-infected pregnant and breastfeeding women are offered lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) regardless of CD4 count or clinical stage (Option B+). Their HIV-exposed children are enrolled in the national prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) programme, but many are lost to follow-up. We estimated the cumulative incidence of vertical HIV transmission, taking loss to follow-up into account. METHODS: We abstracted data from HIV-exposed children enrolled into care between September 2011 and June 2014 from patient records at 21 health facilities in central and southern Malawi. We used competing risk models to estimate the probability of loss to follow-up, death, ART initiation and discharge, and used pooled logistic regression and inverse probability of censoring weighting to estimate the vertical HIV transmission risk. RESULTS: A total of 11,285 children were included; 9285 (82%) were born to women who initiated ART during pregnancy. At age 30 months, an estimated 57.9% (95% CI 56.6-59.2) of children were lost to follow-up, 0.8% (0.6-1.0) had died, 2.6% (2.3-3.0) initiated ART, 36.5% (35.2-37.9) were discharged HIV-negative and 2.2% (1.5-2.8) continued follow-up. We estimated that 5.3% (95% CI 4.7-5.9) of the children who enrolled were HIV-infected by the age of 30 months, but only about half of these children (2.6%; 95% CI 2.3-2.9) were diagnosed. CONCLUSIONS: Confirmed mother-to-child transmission rates were low, but due to poor retention only about half of HIV-infected children were diagnosed. Tracing of children lost to follow-up and HIV testing in outpatient clinics should be scaled up to ensure that all HIV-positive children have access to early ART.

Adherence to Antiretroviral Therapy During and After Pregnancy: Cohort Study on Women Receiving Care in Malawi's Option B+ Program.

BACKGROUND: Adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is crucial to preventing mother-to-child transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and ensuring the long-term effectiveness of ART, yet data are sparse from African routine care programs on maternal adherence to triple ART. METHODS: We analyzed data from women who started ART at 13 large health facilities in Malawi between September 2011 and October 2013. We defined adherence as the percentage of days "covered" by pharmacy claims. Adherence of ≥90% was deemed adequate. We calculated inverse probability of censoring weights to adjust adherence estimates for informative censoring. We used descriptive statistics, survival analysis, and pooled logistic regression to compare adherence between pregnant and breastfeeding women eligible for ART under Option B+, and nonpregnant and nonbreastfeeding women who started ART with low CD4 cell counts or World Health Organization clinical stage 3/4 disease. RESULTS: Adherence was adequate for 73% of the women during pregnancy, for 66% in the first 3 months post partum, and for about 75% during months 4-21 post partum. About 70% of women who started ART during pregnancy and breastfeeding adhered adequately during the first 2 years of ART, but only about 30% of them had maintained adequate adherence at every visit. Risk factors for inadequate adherence included starting ART with an Option B+ indication, at a younger age, or at a district hospital or health center. CONCLUSIONS: One-third of women retained in the Option B+ program adhered inadequately during pregnancy and breastfeeding, especially soon after delivery. Effective interventions to improve adherence among women in this program should be implemented.

Retention in care during the first 3 years of antiretroviral therapy for women in Malawi's option B+ programme: an observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Studies of Malawi's option B+ programme for HIV-positive pregnant and breastfeeding women have reported high loss to follow-up during pregnancy and at the start of antiretroviral therapy (ART), but few data exist about retention during breastfeeding and after weaning. We examined loss to follow-up and retention in care in patients in the option B+ programme during their first 3 years on ART. METHODS: We analysed two data sources: aggregated facility-level data about patients in option B+ who started ART between Oct 1, 2011, and June 30, 2012, at 546 health facilities; and patient-level data from 20 large facilities with electronic medical record system for HIV-positive women who started ART between Sept 1, 2011, and Dec 31, 2013, under option B+ or because they had WHO clinical stages 3 or 4 disease or had CD4 counts of less than 350 cells per µL. We used facility-level data to calculate representative estimates of retention and loss to follow-up. We used patient-level data to study temporal trends in retention, timing of loss to follow-up, and predictors of no follow-up and loss to follow-up. We defined patients who were more than 60 days late for their first follow-up visit as having no follow-up and patients who were more than 60 days late for a subsequent visit as being lost to follow-up. We calculated proportions and cumulative probabilities of patients who had died, stopped ART, had no follow-up, were lost to follow-up, or were retained alive on ART for 36 months. We calculated odds ratios and hazard ratios to examine predictors of no follow-up and loss to follow-up. FINDINGS: Analysis of facility-level data about patients in option B+ who had not transferred to a different facility showed retention in care to be 76·8% (20 475 of 26,658 patients) after 12 months, 70·8% (18,306 of 25,849 patients) after 24 months, and 69·7% (17,787 of 25,535 patients) after 36 months. Patient-level data included 29,145 patients. 14,630 (50·2%) began treatment under option B+. Patients in option B+ had a higher risk of having no follow-up and, for the first 2 years of ART, higher risk of loss to follow-up than did patients who started ART because they had CD4 counts less than 350 cells per µL or WHO clinical stage 3 or 4 disease. Risk of loss to follow-up during the third year was low and similar for patients retained for 2 years. Retention rates did not change as the option B+ programme matured. INTERPRETATION: Our data suggest that pregnant and breastfeeding women who start ART immediately after they are diagnosed with HIV can be retained on ART through the option B+ programme, even after many have stopped breastfeeding. Interventions might be needed to improve retention in the first year on ART in option B+. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Partnerships for Enhanced Engagement in Research Health, and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Classification and rates of adverse events in a Malawi male circumcision program: impact of quality improvement training.

BACKGROUND: Assessing safety outcomes is critical to inform optimal scale-up of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programs. Clinical trials demonstrated adverse event (AE) rates from 1.5 to 8 %, but we have limited data on AEs from VMMC programs. METHODS: A group problem-solving, quality improvement (QI) project involving retrospective chart audits, case-conference AE classification, and provider training was conducted at a VMMC clinic in Malawi. For each identified potential AE, the timing, assessment, treatment, and resolution was recorded, then a clinical team classified each event for type and severity. During group discussions, VMMC providers were queried regarding lessons learned and challenges in providing care. After baseline evaluation, clinicians and managers initiated a QI plan to improve AE assessment and management. A repeat audit 6 months later used similar methods to assess the proportions and severity of AEs after the QI intervention. RESULTS: Baseline audits of 3000 charts identified 418 possible AEs (13.9 %), including 152 (5.1 %) excluded after determination of provider misclassification. Of the 266 remaining AEs, the team concluded that 257 were procedure-related (8.6 AEs per 100 VMMC procedures), including 6 (0.2 %) classified as mild, 218 (7.3 %) moderate, and 33 (1.1 %) severe. Structural factors found to contribute to AE rates and misclassification included: provider management of post-operative inflammation was consistent with national guidelines for urethral discharge; available antibiotics were from the STI formulary; providers felt well-trained in surgical skills but insecure in post-operative assessment and care. After implementation of the QI plan, a repeat process evaluating 2540 cases identified 115 procedure-related AEs (4.5 AEs per 100 VMMC procedures), including 67 (2.6 %) classified as mild, 28 (1.1 %) moderate, and 20 (0.8 %) severe. Reports of AEs decreased by 48 % (from 8.6 to 4.5 per 100 VMMC procedures, p < 0.001). Reports of moderate-plus-severe (program-reportable) AEs decreased by 75 % (from 8.4 to 1.9 per 100 VMMC procedures, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: AE rates from our VMMC program implementation site were within the range of clinical trial experiences. A group problem-solving QI intervention improved post-operative assessment, clinical management, and AE reporting. Our QI process significantly improved clinical outcomes and led to more accurate reporting of overall and program-reportable AEs.

Comparative cost-effectiveness of Option B+ for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Malawi.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of prevention of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV with lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for pregnant and breastfeeding women ('Option B+') compared with ART during pregnancy or breastfeeding only unless clinically indicated ('Option B'). DESIGN: Mathematical modelling study of first and second pregnancy, informed by data from the Malawi Option B+ programme. METHODS: Individual-based simulation model. We simulated cohorts of 10 000 women and their infants during two subsequent pregnancies, including the breastfeeding period, with either Option B+ or B. We parameterized the model with data from the literature and by analysing programmatic data. We compared total costs of antenatal and postnatal care, and lifetime costs and disability-adjusted life-years of the infected infants between Option B+ and Option B. RESULTS: During the first pregnancy, 15% of the infants born to HIV-infected mothers acquired the infection. With Option B+, 39% of the women were on ART at the beginning of the second pregnancy, compared with 18% with Option B. For second pregnancies, the rates MTCT were 11.3% with Option B+ and 12.3% with Option B. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio comparing the two options ranged between about US$ 500 and US$ 1300 per DALY averted. CONCLUSION: Option B+ prevents more vertical transmissions of HIV than Option B, mainly because more women are already on ART at the beginning of the next pregnancy. Option B+ is a cost-effective strategy for PMTCT if the total future costs and lost lifetime of the infected infants are taken into account.

Brief Report: HIV Testing Among Pregnant Women Who Attend Antenatal Care in Malawi.

Malawi adopted the Option B+ strategy in 2011. Its success in reducing mother-to-child transmission depends on coverage and timing of HIV testing. We assessed HIV status ascertainment and its predictors during pregnancy. HIV status ascertainment was 82.3% (95% confidence interval: 80.2 to 85.9) in the pre-Option B+ period and 85.7% (95% confidence interval: 83.4 to 88.0) in the Option B+ period. Higher HIV ascertainment was independently associated with higher age, attending antenatal care more than once, and registration in 2010. The observed high variability of HIV ascertainment between sites (50.6%-97.7%) and over time suggests that HIV test kit shortages and insufficient numbers of staff posed major barriers to reducing mother-to-child transmission.

Strategies for monitoring and evaluation of resource-limited national antiretroviral therapy programs: the two-phase design.

BACKGROUND: In resource-limited settings, monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs often relies on aggregated facility-level data. Such data are limited, however, because of the potential for ecological bias, although collecting detailed patient-level data is often prohibitively expensive. To resolve this dilemma, we propose the use of the two-phase design. Specifically, when the outcome of interest is binary, the two-phase design provides a framework within which researchers can resolve ecological bias through the collection of patient-level data on a sub-sample of individuals while making use of the routinely collected aggregated data to obtain potentially substantial efficiency gains. METHODS: Between 2005-2007, the Malawian Ministry of Health conducted a one-time cross-sectional survey of 82,887 patients registered at 189 ART clinics. Using these patient data, an aggregated dataset is constructed to mimic the type of data that it routinely available. A hypothetical study of risk factors for patient outcomes at 6 months post-registration is considered. Analyses are conducted based on: (i) complete patient-level data; (ii) aggregated data; (iii) a hypothetical case-control study; (iv) a hypothetical two-phase study stratified on clinic type; and, (v) a hypothetical two-phase study stratified on clinic type and registration year. A simulation study is conducted to compare statistical power to detect an interaction between clinic type and year of registration across the designs. RESULTS: Analyses and conclusions based solely on aggregated data may suffer from ecological bias. Collecting and analyzing patient data using either a case-control or two-phase design resolves ecological bias to provide valid conclusions. To detect the interaction between clinic type and year of registration, the case-control design would require a prohibitively large sample size. In contrast, a two-phase design that stratifies on clinic and year of registration achieves greater than 85% power with as few as 1,000 patient samples. CONCLUSIONS: Two-phase designs have the potential to augment current M&E efforts in resource-limited settings by providing a framework for the collection and analysis of patient data. The design is cost-efficient in the sense that it often requires far fewer patients to be sampled when compared to standard designs.

A reduction in adult blood stream infection and case fatality at a large African hospital following antiretroviral therapy roll-out.

INTRODUCTION: Blood-stream infection (BSI) is one of the principle determinants of the morbidity and mortality associated with advanced HIV infection, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Over the last 10 years, there has been rapid roll-out of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) and cotrimoxazole prophylactic therapy (CPT) in many high HIV prevalence African countries. METHODS: A prospective cohort of adults with suspected BSI presenting to Queen's Hospital, Malawi was recruited between 2009 and 2010 to describe causes of and outcomes from BSI. Comparison was made with a cohort pre-dating ART roll-out to investigate whether and how ART and CPT have affected BSI. Malawian census and Ministry of Health ART data were used to estimate minimum incidence of BSI in Blantyre district. RESULTS: 2,007 patients were recruited, 90% were HIV infected. Since 1997/8, culture-confirmed BSI has fallen from 16% of suspected cases to 10% (p<0.001) and case fatality rate from confirmed BSI has fallen from 40% to 14% (p<0.001). Minimum incidence of BSI was estimated at 0.03/1000 years in HIV uninfected vs. 2.16/1000 years in HIV infected adults. Compared to HIV seronegative patients, the estimated incidence rate-ratio for BSI was 80 (95% CI:46-139) in HIV-infected/untreated adults, 568 (95% CI:302-1069) during the first 3 months of ART and 30 (95% CI:16-59) after 3 months of ART. CONCLUSIONS: Following ART roll-out, the incidence of BSI has fallen and clinical outcomes have improved markedly. Nonetheless, BSI incidence remains high in the first 3 months of ART despite CPT. Further interventions to reduce BSI-associated mortality in the first 3 months of ART require urgent evaluation.