Mortality, Cardiovascular Disease, and Their Associations With Risk Factors in Southeast Asia: A PURE Substudy.

Background: The drivers of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality may differ around the world. Regional-level prospective data can help guide policies to reduce CVD and all-cause mortality. Objectives: This study examined the incidence of CVD and mortality in Malaysia and the Philippines and estimated the population-level risks attributable to common risk factors for each outcome. Methods: This prospective cohort study included 20,272 participants from Malaysia and the Philippines. The mean follow-up was 8.2 years. The incidences of CVD and mortality rates were calculated for the overall cohort and in key subgroups. For each outcome, population-attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated to compare risks associated with 12 modifiable risk factors. Results: The mean age of the cohort was 51.8 years (59% women). Leading causes of mortality were CVD (37.9%) and cancer (12.4%). The incidence of CVD (per 1,000 person-years) was higher in the Philippines (11.0) than Malaysia (8.3), and CVD contributed to a higher proportion of deaths in the Philippines (58% vs 36%). By contrast, all-cause mortality rates were higher in Malaysia (14.1) than in the Philippines (10.9). Approximately 78% of the PAF for CVD and 68% of the PAF for all-cause mortality were attributable to 12 modifiable risk factors. For CVD, the largest PAF was from hypertension (24.2%), whereas for all-cause mortality, the largest PAF was from low education (18.4%). Conclusions: CVD and cancer account for one-half of adult mortality in Malaysia and the Philippines. Hypertension was the largest population driver of CVD, whereas low education was associated with the largest burden of overall mortality.

Maternal smoking DNA methylation risk score associated with health outcomes in offspring of European and South Asian ancestry.

Background: Maternal smoking has been linked to adverse health outcomes in newborns but the extent to which it impacts newborn health has not been quantified through an aggregated cord blood DNA methylation (DNAm) score. Here, we examine the feasibility of using cord blood DNAm scores leveraging large external studies as discovery samples to capture the epigenetic signature of maternal smoking and its influence on newborns in White European and South Asian populations. Methods: We first examined the association between individual CpGs and cigarette smoking during pregnancy, and smoking exposure in two White European birth cohorts (n=744). Leveraging established CpGs for maternal smoking, we constructed a cord blood epigenetic score of maternal smoking that was validated in one of the European-origin cohorts (n=347). This score was then tested for association with smoking status, secondary smoking exposure during pregnancy, and health outcomes in offspring measured after birth in an independent White European (n=397) and a South Asian birth cohort (n=504). Results: Several previously reported genes for maternal smoking were supported, with the strongest and most consistent association signal from the GFI1 gene (6 CpGs with p<5 × 10-5). The epigenetic maternal smoking score was strongly associated with smoking status during pregnancy (OR = 1.09 [1.07, 1.10], p=5.5 × 10-33) and more hours of self-reported smoking exposure per week (1.93 [1.27, 2.58], p=7.8 × 10-9) in White Europeans. However, it was not associated with self-reported exposure (p>0.05) among South Asians, likely due to a lack of smoking in this group. The same score was consistently associated with a smaller birth size (-0.37±0.12 cm, p=0.0023) in the South Asian cohort and a lower birth weight (-0.043±0.013 kg, p=0.0011) in the combined cohorts. Conclusions: This cord blood epigenetic score can help identify babies exposed to maternal smoking and assess its long-term impact on growth. Notably, these results indicate a consistent association between the DNAm signature of maternal smoking and a small body size and low birth weight in newborns, in both White European mothers who exhibited some amount of smoking and in South Asian mothers who themselves were not active smokers. Funding: This study was funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research Metabolomics Team Grant: MWG-146332.

Lipoprotein(a) and Calcific Aortic Valve Stenosis Progression: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Importance: There are currently no pharmacological treatments available to slow hemodynamic progression of aortic stenosis. Plasma lipoprotein(a) concentrations predict incident aortic stenosis but its association with hemodynamic progression is controversial. Objective: To determine the association between plasma lipoprotein(a) concentrations and hemodynamic progression in patients with aortic stenosis. Design, Settings and Participants: The study included patients with aortic stenosis from 5 longitudinal clinical studies conducted from March 2001 to March 2023 in Canada and the UK. Of 757 total patients, data on plasma lipoprotein(a) concentrations and rates of hemodynamic progression assessed by echocardiography were available for 710, who were included in this analysis. Data were analyzed from March 2023 to April 2024. Exposure: Cohort-specific plasma lipoprotein(a) concentration tertiles. Main Outcomes and Measures: Hemodynamic aortic stenosis progression on echocardiography as assessed by annualized change in peak aortic jet velocity, mean transvalvular gradient, and aortic valve area. Results: Among the included patients, 497 (70%) were male and 213 (30%) were female. The mean (SD) age was 65.2 (13.1) years. Patients in the top lipoprotein(a) tertile demonstrated 41% (estimate, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.13-1.75) faster progression of peak aortic jet velocity and 57% (estimate, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.18-2.10) faster progression of mean transvalvular gradient than patients in the bottom tertile. There was no evidence of heterogeneity across the individual cohorts. Progression of aortic valve area was comparable between groups (estimate, 1.23; 95% CI, 0.71-2.12). Similar results were observed when plasma lipoprotein(a) concentrations were treated as a continuous variable. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, higher plasma lipoprotein(a) concentrations were associated with faster rates of hemodynamic progression in patients with aortic stenosis. Lowering plasma lipoprotein(a) concentrations warrants further investigation in the prevention and treatment of aortic stenosis.

Cardiorenal effects of Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and Angiotensin receptor blockers in people underrepresented in trials: analysis of routinely collected data with emulation of a reference trial (ONTARGET).

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of death globally. Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB), compared in the ONTARGET trial, each prevent CVD. However, trial results may not be generalisable and their effectiveness in underrepresented groups is unclear. Using trial emulation methods within routine-care data to validate findings, we explored generalisability of ONTARGET results. For people prescribed an ACEi/ARB in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD from 1/1/2001-31/7/2019, we applied trial criteria and propensity-score methods to create an ONTARGET trial-eligible cohort. Comparing ARB to ACEi, we estimated hazard ratios for the primary composite trial outcome (cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, or hospitalisation for heart failure), and secondary outcomes. As the pre-specified criteria were met confirming trial emulation, we then explored treatment heterogeneity among three trial-underrepresented subgroups: females, those aged ≥75 years and those with chronic kidney disease (CKD). In the trial-eligible population (n=137,155), results for the primary outcome demonstrated similar effects of ARB and ACEi, (HR 0.97 [95% CI: 0.93, 1.01]), meeting the pre-specified validation criteria. When extending this outcome to trial-underrepresented groups, similar treatment effects were observed by sex, age and CKD. This suggests that ONTARGET trial findings are generalisable to trial-underrepresented subgroups.

Impact of seasonal blood pressure changes on visit-to-visit blood pressure variability and related cardiovascular outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Visit-to-visit blood pressure (BP) variability associates with an increased risk of cardiovascular events. We investigated the role of seasonal BP modifications on the magnitude of BP variability and its impact on cardiovascular risk. METHODS: In 25 390 patients included in the ONTARGET and TRANSCEND trials, the on-treatment systolic (S) BP values obtained by five visits during the first two years of the trials were grouped according to the month in which they were obtained. SBP differences between winter and summer months were calculated for BP variability quintiles (Qs), as quantified by the coefficient of variation (CV) of on-treatment mean SBP from the five visits. The relationship of BP variability with the risk of cardiovascular events and mortality was assessed by the Cox regression model. RESULTS: SBP was approximately 4 mmHg lower in summer than in winter regardless of confounders. Winter/summer SBP differences contributed significantly to each SBP-CV quintile. Increase of SBP-CV from Q1 to Q5 was associated with a progressive increase in the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of the primary endpoint of the trials, i.e. morbid and fatal cardiovascular events. This association was even stronger after removal of the effect of seasonality from the calculation of SBP-CV. A similar trend was observed for secondary endpoints. CONCLUSIONS: Winter/summer SBP differences significantly contribute to visit-to-visit BP variability. However, this contribution does not participate in the adverse prognostic significance of visit-to-visit BP variations, which seems to be more evident after removal of the BP effects of seasonality from visit-to-visit BP variations.

The association of red and processed meat with gestational diabetes mellitus: Results from 2 Canadian birth cohort studies.

OBJECTIVE: Red and processed meat is considered risk factors of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), but the evidence is inconclusive. We aimed to examine the association between red and processed meat intake and odds of GDM among South Asian and White European women living in Canada. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional analysis of pregnant women from two birth cohorts: SouTh Asian biRth cohorT (START; n = 976) and Family Atherosclerosis Monitoring In earLY life (FAMILY; n = 581). Dietary intake was assessed using a validated 169-item semi-quantitative food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Multivariate logistic regression models were used to examine the associations between gestational diabetes and: 1) total red and processed meat; 2) unprocessed red meat; 3) processed meat and GDM after adjustment for potential confounders. RESULTS: There were 241 GDM cases in START and 91 in FAMILY. The median total red and processed meat intake were 1.5 g/d (START) and 52.8 g/d (FAMILY). In START, the multivariable-adjusted odds ratio (OR) showed neither lower nor higher intakes of unprocessed red meat (p-trend = 0.68), processed meat (p-trend = 0.90), or total red and processed meat (p-trend = 0.44), were associated with increased odds of GDM, when compared with medium intake. Similar results were observed in FAMILY except for processed meat intake [OR = 0.94 (95% CI 0.47-1.91), for medium versus low and OR = 1.51 (95% CI 0.77-2.29) for medium versus high; p-trend = 0.18] after adjusting for additional dietary factors such as the diet quality score, total fiber, saturated fat and glycemic load. CONCLUSION: Medium compared with low or high red and processed meat intake is not associated with GDM in White Europeans and South Asians living in Canada.

Risk factors for recognized and unrecognized SARS-CoV-2 infection: a seroepidemiologic analysis of the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study.

There are limited data on individual risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection (including unrecognized infection). In this seroepidemiologic substudy of an ongoing prospective cohort study of community-dwelling adults, participants were thoroughly characterized pre-pandemic. The SARS-CoV-2 infection was ascertained by serology. Among 8,719 participants from 11 high-, middle-, and low-income countries, 3,009 (35%) were seropositive for SARS-CoV-2. Characteristics independently associated with seropositivity were younger age (odds ratio, OR; 95% confidence interval, CI, per five-year increase: 0.95; 0.91-0.98) and body mass index >25 kg/m2 (OR, 95% CI: 1.16, 1.01-1.34). Smoking (as compared with never smoking, OR, 95% CI: 0.83, 0.70-0.97) and COVID-19 vaccination (OR, 95% CI: 0.70, 0.60-0.82) were associated with a reduced risk of seropositivity. Among seropositive participants, 83% were unaware of having been infected with SARS-CoV-2. Seropositivity and a lack of awareness of infection were more common in lower-income countries. The COVID-19 vaccination reduces the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection (including recognized and unrecognized infections). Overweight or obesity is an independent risk factor for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Infection and lack of infection awareness are more common in lower-income countries.IMPORTANCEIn this large, international study, evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection was obtained by testing blood specimens from 8,719 community-dwelling adults from 11 countries. The key findings are that (i) the large majority (83%) of community-dwelling adults from several high-, middle-, and low-income countries with blood test evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection were unaware of this infection-especially in lower-income countries; and (ii) overweight/obesity predisposes to SARS-CoV-2 infection, while COVID-19 vaccination is associated with a reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. These observations are not attributable to other individual characteristics, highlighting the importance of the COVID-19 vaccination to prevent not only severe infection but possibly any infection. Further research is needed to understand the mechanisms by which overweight/obesity might increase the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Timing and Length of Nocturnal Sleep and Daytime Napping and Associations With Obesity Types in High-, Middle-, and Low-Income Countries

IMPORTANCE: Obesity is a growing public health threat leading to serious health consequences. Late bedtime and sleep loss are common in modern society, but their associations with specific obesity types are not well characterized. OBJECTIVE: To assess whether sleep timing and napping behavior are associated with increased obesity, independent of nocturnal sleep length. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This large, multinational, population-based cross-sectional study used data of participants from 60 study centers in 26 countries with varying income levels as part of the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology study. Participants were aged 35 to 70 years and were mainly recruited during 2005 and 2009. Data analysis occurred from October 2020 through March 2021. EXPOSURES: Sleep timing (ie, bedtime and wake-up time), nocturnal sleep duration, daytime napping. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcomes were prevalence of obesity, specified as general obesity, defined as body mass index (BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) of 30 or greater, and abdominal obesity, defined as waist circumference greater than 102 cm for men or greater than 88 cm for women. Multilevel logistic regression models with random effects for study centers were performed to calculate adjusted odds ratios (AORs) and 95% CIs. RESULTS: Overall, 136 652 participants (81 652 [59.8%] women; mean [SD] age, 51.0 [9.8] years) were included in analysis. A total of 27 195 participants (19.9%) had general obesity, and 37 024 participants (27.1%) had abdominal obesity. The mean (SD) nocturnal sleep duration was 7.8 (1.4) hours, and the median (interquartile range) midsleep time was 2:15 AM (1:30 AM-3:00 AM). A total of 19 660 participants (14.4%) had late bedtime behavior (ie, midnight or later). Compared with bedtime between 8 PM and 10 PM, late bedtime was associated with general obesity (AOR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.12-1.29) and abdominal obesity (AOR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.12-1.28), particularly among participants who went to bed between 2 AM and 6 AM (general obesity: AOR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.18-1.54; abdominal obesity: AOR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.21-1.58). Short nocturnal sleep of less than 6 hours was associated with general obesity (eg, <5 hours: AOR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.13-1.43), but longer napping was associated with higher abdominal obesity prevalence (eg, ≥1 hours: AOR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.31-1.47). Neither going to bed during the day (ie, before 8PM) nor wake-up time was associated with obesity. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This cross-sectional study found that late nocturnal bedtime and short nocturnal sleep were associated with increased risk of obesity prevalence, while longer daytime napping did not reduce the risk but was associated with higher risk of abdominal obesity. Strategic weight control programs should also encourage earlier bedtime and avoid short nocturnal sleep to mitigate obesity epidemic.

Association of dairy consumption with metabolic syndrome, hypertension and diabetes in 147 812 individuals from 21 countries

OBJECTIVE: Our aims were to assess the association of dairy intake with prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) (cross-sectionally) and with incident hypertension and incident diabetes (prospectively) in a large multinational cohort study. METHODS: The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a prospective epidemiological study of individuals aged 35 and 70 years from 21 countries on five continents, with a median follow-up of 9.1 years. In the cross-sectional analyses, we assessed the association of dairy intake with prevalent MetS and its components among individuals with information on the five MetS components (n=112 922). For the prospective analyses, we examined the association of dairy with incident hypertension (in 57 547 individuals free of hypertension) and diabetes (in 131 481 individuals free of diabetes). RESULTS: In cross-sectional analysis, higher intake of total dairy (at least two servings/day compared with zero intake; OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.80, p-trend<0.0001) was associated with a lower prevalence of MetS after multivariable adjustment. Higher intakes of whole fat dairy consumed alone (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.78, p-trend<0.0001), or consumed jointly with low fat dairy (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.98, p-trend=0.0005), were associated with a lower MetS prevalence. Low fat dairy consumed alone was not associated with MetS (OR 1.03, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.38, p-trend=0.13). In prospective analysis, 13 640 people with incident hypertension and 5351 people with incident diabetes were recorded. Higher intake of total dairy (at least two servings/day vs zero serving/day) was associated with a lower incidence of hypertension (HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.97, p-trend=0.02) and diabetes (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.02, p-trend=0.01). Directionally similar associations were found for whole fat dairy versus each outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Higher intake of whole fat (but not low fat) dairy was associated with a lower prevalence of MetS and most of its component factors, and with a lower incidence of hypertension and diabetes. Our findings should be evaluated in large randomized trials of the effects of whole fat dairy on the risks of MetS, hypertension, and diabetes.

Association of egg intake with blood lipids, cardiovascular disease, and mortality in 177,000 people in 50 countries

BACKGROUND: Eggs are a rich source of essential nutrients, but they are also a source of dietary cholesterol. Therefore, some guidelines recommend limiting egg consumption. However, there is contradictory evidence on the impact of eggs on diseases, largely based on studies conducted in high-income countries. OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to assess the association of egg consumption with blood lipids, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and mortality in large global studies involving populations from low-, middle-, and high-income countries. METHODS: We studied 146,011 individuals from 21 countries in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study. Egg consumption was recorded using country-specific validated FFQs. We also studied 31,544 patients with vascular disease in 2 multinational prospective studies: ONTARGET (Ongoing Telmisartan Alone and in Combination with Ramipril Global End Point Trial) and TRANSCEND (Telmisartan Randomized Assessment Study in ACEI Intolerant Subjects with Cardiovascular Disease). We calculated HRs using multivariable Cox frailty models with random intercepts to account for clustering by study center separately within each study. RESULTS: In the PURE study, we recorded 14,700 composite events (8932 deaths and 8477 CVD events). In the PURE study, after excluding those with history of CVD, higher intake of egg (≥7 egg/wk compared with <1 egg/wk intake) was not significantly associated with blood lipids, composite outcome (HR: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.89, 1.04; P-trend = 0.74), total mortality (HR: 1.04; 95% CI: 0.94, 1.15; P-trend = 0.38), or major CVD (HR: 0.92; 95% CI: 0.83, 1.01; P-trend = 0.20). Similar results were observed in ONTARGET/TRANSCEND studies for composite outcome (HR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.76, 1.25; P-trend = 0.09), total mortality (HR: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.62, 1.24; P-trend = 0.55), and major CVD (HR: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.73, 1.29; P-trend = 0.12). CONCLUSIONS: In 3 large international prospective studies including ∼177,000 individuals, 12,701 deaths, and 13,658 CVD events from 50 countries in 6 continents, we did not find significant associations between egg intake and blood lipids, mortality, or major CVD events. (AU)

Socioeconomic status and risk of cardiovascular disease in 20 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiologic (PURE) study

Background Socioeconomic status is associated with differences in risk factors for cardiovascular disease incidence and outcomes, including mortality. However, it is unclear whether the associations between cardiovascular disease and common measures of socioeconomic status­wealth and education­differ among high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries, and, if so, why these differences exist. We explored the association between education and household wealth and cardiovascular disease and mortality to assess which marker is the stronger predictor of outcomes, and examined whether any differences in cardiovascular disease by socioeconomic status parallel differences in risk factor levels or differences in management. Methods In this large-scale prospective cohort study, we recruited adults aged between 35 years and 70 years from 367 urban and 302 rural communities in 20 countries. We collected data on families and households in two questionnaires, and data on cardiovascular risk factors in a third questionnaire, which was supplemented with physical examination. We assessed socioeconomic status using education and a household wealth index. Education was categorized as no or primary school education only, secondary school education, or higher education, defined as completion of trade school, college, or university. Household wealth, calculated at the household level and with household data, was defined by an index on the basis of ownership of assets and housing characteristics. Primary outcomes were major cardiovascular disease (a composite of cardiovascular deaths, strokes, myocardial infarction, and heart failure), cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality. Information on specific events was obtained from participants or their family. (AU)

Health effects of household solid fuel use: findings from 11 countries within the prospective urban and rural epidemiology study

Approximately 2.5 billion individuals globally are exposed to household air pollution (HAP) from cooking with solid fuels such as coal, wood, dung, or crop residues (Smith et al. 2014). Concentrations of air pollutants, especially fine particulate matter [PM≤2:5 lminaerodynamicdiameterðPM2:5)], can be several orders of magnitude higher in homes cooking with solid fuels compared with those using clean fuels such as electricity or liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) (Clark et al. 2013; Shupler et al. 2018). PM2:5 in outdoor air has been linked to mortality, Address correspondence to Perry Hystad, School of Public Health and Human Sciences, Oregon State University, Milam Hall 10, 2520 SW Campus Way, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. Telephone: (541) 737-4829. Email: Perry. hystad@oregonstate.edu SupplementalMaterialisavailableonline(https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP3915). The authors declared hey have no actual or potential competing financial interests. Received 16 May 2018; Revised 16 April 2019; Accepted 16 April 2019; Published 8 May 2019. Note to readers with disabilities: EHP strives to ensure that all journal content is accessible to all readers. However, some figures and Supplemental Material published in EHP articles may not conform to 508 standards due to the complexity of the information being presented. If you need assistance accessing journal content, please contact ehponline@niehs.nih.gov. Our staff will work with you to assess and meet your accessibility needs within 3 working days.is chemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and respiratory diseases (Kim et al. 2015). Despite the large population exposed and the potential for adverse health effects, few prospective cohort studies have examined the health effects of HAP. Only four studies have examined HAP and mortality and reached contradictory conclusions (Alam et al. 2012; Kim et al. 2016; Mitter et al. 2016; Yu et al. 2018). Further, studies have not examined HAP and fatal as well as nonfatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. There is growing evidence of the adverse effects of HAP on respiratory diseases and lung cancer; however, most studies are cross sectional or case control in design, with relatively small sample sizes and limited geographic coverage (Gordon et al. 2014). To date, few prospective studies have examined HAP exposures and respiratory events in adults, and the existing studies have reported contradictory findings (Chanetal.2019; Ezzati and Kammen 2001; Mitter et al. 2016). Given the absence of direct epidemiological data, the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study estimated the potential impact of HAP on health using exposure response relationships that pooled data from studies on outdoor air pollution, secondhand smoke, and active smoking (Burnett et al. 2014). These predictions indicated that 1.6 million deaths were attributable to HAP exposure in 2017, of which 39% were from IHD and stroke and 55% from respiratory outcomes [>90% from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI)] (GBD 2017 Risk Factor Collaborators 2018). Given the lack of direct epidemiological evidence and this large predicted burden, there is an urgent need to directly characterize the health effects associated with HAP. Within the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study, we conducted an analysis of 91,350 adults from 467 urban and rural communities in 11 low to middle-income countries (LMICs) where solid fuels are commonly used for cooking. We examined associations between cooking with solid fuels as a proxy indicator of HAP exposure and cause specific mortality, incident cases of CVD [ CVD death and incidence of nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and heart failure (HF)] and incident cases of respiratory disease [respiratory death, nonfatal COPD, pulmonary tuberculosis (TB), pneumonia, or lung cancer].We estimated associations between solid fuel use for cooking and these outcomes, controlling for extensive individual, household, and community covariates. (AU)

Joint association of urinary sodium and potassium excretion with cardiovascular events and mortality: prospective cohort study

PARTICIPANTS: 103 570 people who provided morning fasting urine samples. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Association of estimated 24 hour urinary sodium and potassium excretion (surrogates for intake) with all cause mortality and major cardiovascular events, using multivariable Cox regression. A six category variable for joint sodium and potassium was generated: sodium excretion (low (<3 g/day), moderate (3-5 g/day), and high (>5 g/day) sodium intakes) by potassium excretion (greater/equal or less than median 2.1 g/day). RESULTS: OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the joint association of sodium and potassium urinary excretion (as surrogate measures of intake) with cardiovascular events and mortality, in the context of current World Health Organization recommendations for daily intake (<2.0 g sodium, >3.5 g potassium) in adults. DESIGN: International prospective cohort study. SETTING: 18 high, middle, and low income countries, sampled from urban and rural communities. ARTICIPANTS: 103 570 people who provided morning fasting urine samples. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Association of estimated 24 hour urinary sodium and potassium excretion (surrogates for intake) with all cause mortality and major cardiovascular events, using multivariable Cox regression. A six category variable for joint sodium and potassium was generated: sodium excretion (low (<3 g/day), moderate (3-5 g/day), and high (>5 g/day) sodium intakes) by potassium excretion (greater/equal or less than median 2.1 g/day). RESULTS: Mean estimated sodium and potassium urinary excretion were 4.93 g/day and 2.12 g/day, respectively. After a median follow-up of 8.2 years, 7884 (6.1%) participants had died or experienced a major cardiovascular event. Increasing urinary sodium excretion was positively associated with increasing potassium excretion (unadjusted r=0.34), and only 0.002% had a concomitant urinary excretion of <2.0 g/day of sodium and >3.5 g/day of potassium. A J-shaped association was observed of sodium excretion and inverse association of potassium excretion with death and cardiovascular events. For joint sodium and potassium excretion categories, the lowest risk of death and cardiovascular events occurred in the group with moderate sodium excretion (3-5 g/day) and higher potassium excretion (21.9% of cohort). Compared with this reference group, the combinations of low potassium with low sodium excretion (hazard ratio 1.23, 1.11 to 1.37; 7.4% of cohort) and low potassium with high sodium excretion (1.21, 1.11 to 1.32; 13.8% of cohort) were associated with the highest risk, followed by low sodium excretion (1.19, 1.02 to 1.38; 3.3% of cohort) and high sodium excretion (1.10, 1.02 to 1.18; 29.6% of cohort) among those with potassium excretion greater than the median. Higher potassium excretion attenuated the increased cardiovascular risk associated with high sodium excretion (P for interaction=0.007). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that the simultaneous target of low sodium intake (<2 g/day) with high potassium intake (>3.5 g/day) is extremely uncommon. Combined moderate sodium intake (3-5 g/day) with high potassium intake is associated with the lowest risk of mortality and cardiovascular events. (AU)

Association of dairy intake with cardiovascular disease and mortality in 21 countries from five continents (PURE): a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Dietary guidelines recommend minimising consumption of whole-fat dairy products, as they are a source of saturated fats and presumed to adversely affect blood lipids and increase cardiovascular disease and mortality. Evidence for this contention is sparse and few data for the effects of dairy consumption on health are available from low-income and middle-income countries. Therefore, we aimed to assess the associations between total dairy and specific types of dairy products with mortality and major cardiovascular disease. METHODS: The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a large multinational cohort study of individuals aged 35­70 years enrolled from 21 countries in five continents. Dietary intakes of dairy products for 136 384 individuals were recorded using country-specific validated food frequency questionnaires. Dairy products comprised milk, yoghurt, and cheese. We further grouped these foods into whole-fat and low-fat dairy. The primary outcome was the composite of mortality or major cardiovascular events (defined as death from cardiovascular causes, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure). Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using multivariable Cox frailty models with random intercepts to account for clustering of participants by centre. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2003, and July 14, 2018, we recorded 10 567 composite events (deaths [n=6796] or major cardiovascular events [n=5855]) during the 9·1 years of follow-up. Higher intake of total dairy (>2 servings per day compared with no intake) was associated with a lower risk of the composite outcome (HR 0·84, 95% CI 0·75­0·94; ptrend=0·0004), total mortality (0·83, 0·72­0·96; ptrend=0·0052), non-cardiovascular mortality (0·86, 0·72­1·02; ptrend=0·046), cardiovascular mortality (0·77, 0·58­1·01; ptrend=0·029), major cardiovascular disease (0·78, 0·67­0·90; ptrend=0·0001), and stroke (0·66, 0·53­0·82; ptrend=0·0003). No significant association with myocardial infarction was observed (HR 0·89, 95% CI 0·71­1·11; ptrend=0·163). Higher intake (>1 serving vs no intake) of milk (HR 0·90, 95% CI 0·82­0·99; ptrend=0·0529) and yogurt (0·86, 0·75­0·99; ptrend=0·0051) was associated with lower risk of the composite outcome, whereas cheese intake was not significantly associated with the composite outcome (0·88, 0·76­1·02; ptrend=0·1399). Butter intake was low and was not significantly associated with clinical outcomes (HR 1·09, 95% CI 0·90­1·33; ptrend=0·4113).

Availability and affordability of essential medicines for diabetes across high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: a prospective epidemiological study

BACKGROUND: Data are scarce on the availability and affordability of essential medicines for diabetes. Our aim was to examine the availability and affordability of metformin, sulfonylureas, and insulin across multiple regions of the world and explore the effect of these on medicine use. METHODS: In the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study, participants aged 35­70 years (n=156625) were recruited from 110803 households, in 604 communities and 22 countries; availability (presence of any dose of medication in the pharmacy on the day of audit) and medicine cost data were collected from pharmacies with the Environmental Profile of a Community's Health audit tool. Our primary analysis was to describe the availability and affordability of metformin and insulin and also commonly used and prescribed combinations of two medicines for diabetes management (two oral drugs, metformin plus a sulphonylurea [either glibenclamide (also known as glyburide) or gliclazide] and one oral drug plus insulin [metformin plus insulin]). Medicines were defined as affordable if the cost of medicines was less than 20% of capacity-to-pay (the household income minus food expenditure). Our analyses included data collected in pharmacies and data from representative samples of households. Data on availability were ascertained during the pharmacy audit, as were data on cost of medications. These cost data were used to estimate the cost of a month's supply of essential medicines for diabetes. We estimated affordability of medicines using income data from household surveys. FINDINGS: Metformin was available in 113 (100%) of 113 pharmacies from high-income countries, 112 (88·2%) of 127 pharmacies in upper-middle-income countries, 179 (86·1%) of 208 pharmacies in lower-middle-income countries, 44 (64·7%) of 68 pharmacies in low-income countries (excluding India), and 88 (100%) of 88 pharmacies in India. Insulin was available in 106 (93·8%) pharmacies in high-income countries, 51 (40·2%) pharmacies in upper-middle-income countries, 61 (29·3%) pharmacies in lower-middle-income countries, seven (10·3%) pharmacies in lower-income countries, and 67 (76·1%) of 88 pharmacies in India. We estimated 0·7% of households in high-income countries and 26·9% of households in low-income countries could not afford metformin and 2·8% of households in high-income countries and 63·0% of households in low-income countries could not afford insulin. Among the 13 569 (8·6% of PURE participants) that reported a diagnosis of diabetes, 1222 (74·0%) participants reported diabetes medicine use in high-income countries compared with 143 (29·6%) participants in low-income countries. In multilevel models, availability and affordability were significantly associated with use of diabetes medicines.

Urinary sodium excretion, blood pressure, cardiovascular disease, and mortality: a community-level prospective epidemiological cohort study

BACKGROUND: WHO recommends that populations consume less than 2 g/day sodium as a preventive measure against cardiovascular disease, but this target has not been achieved in any country. This recommendation is primarily based on individual-level data from short-term trials of blood pressure (BP) without data relating low sodium intake to reduced cardiovascular events from randomised trials or observational studies. We investigated the associations between community-level mean sodium and potassium intake, cardiovascular disease, and mortality. METHODS: The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology study is ongoing in 21 countries. Here we report an analysis done in 18 countries with data on clinical outcomes. Eligible participants were adults aged 35-70 years without cardiovascular disease, sampled from the general population. We used morning fasting urine to estimate 24 h sodium and potassium excretion as a surrogate for intake. We assessed community-level associations between sodium and potassium intake and BP in 369 communities (all >50 participants) and cardiovascular disease and mortality in 255 communities (all >100 participants), and used individual-level data to adjust for known confounders. FINDINGS: 95 767 participants in 369 communities were assessed for BP and 82 544 in 255 communities for cardiovascular outcomes with follow-up for a median of 8·1 years. 82 (80%) of 103 communities in China had a mean sodium intake greater than 5 g/day, whereas in other countries 224 (84%) of 266 communities had a mean intake of 3-5 g/day. Overall, mean systolic BP increased by 2·86 mm Hg per 1 g increase in mean sodium intake, but positive associations were only seen among the communities in the highest tertile of sodium intake (p<0·0001 for heterogeneity). The association between mean sodium intake and major cardiovascular events showed significant deviations from linearity (p=0·043) due to a significant inverse association in the lowest tertile of sodium intake (lowest tertile <4·43 g/day, mean intake 4·04 g/day, range 3·42-4·43; change -1·00 events per 1000 years, 95% CI -2·00 to -0·01, p=0·0497), no association in the middle tertile (middle tertile 4·43-5·08 g/day, mean intake 4·70 g/day, 4·44-5.05; change 0·24 events per 1000 years, -2·12 to 2·61, p=0·8391), and a positive but non-significant association in the highest tertile (highest tertile >5·08 g/day, mean intake 5·75 g/day, >5·08-7·49; change 0·37 events per 1000 years, -0·03 to 0·78, p=0·0712). A strong association was seen with stroke in China (mean sodium intake 5·58 g/day, 0·42 events per 1000 years, 95% CI 0·16 to 0·67, p=0·0020) compared with in other countries (4·49 g/day, -0·26 events, -0·46 to -0·06, p=0·0124; p<0·0001 for heterogeneity). All major cardiovascular outcomes decreased with increasing potassium intake in all countries. INTERPRETATION: Sodium intake was associated with cardiovascular disease and strokes only in communities where mean intake was greater than 5 g/day. A strategy of sodium reduction in these communities and countries but not in others might be appropriate.

Prognostic validation of a non-laboratory and a laboratory based cardiovascular disease risk score in multiple regions of the world

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of the non-laboratory INTERHEART risk score (NL-IHRS) to predict incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) across seven major geographic regions of the world. The secondary objective was to evaluate the performance of the fasting cholesterol-based IHRS (FC-IHRS).METHODS:Using measures of discrimination and calibration, we tested the performance of the NL-IHRS (n=100 475) and FC-IHRS (n=107 863) for predicting incident CVD in a community-based, prospective study across seven geographic regions: South Asia, China, Southeast Asia, Middle East, Europe/North America, South America and Africa. CVD was defined as the composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure or coronary revascularisation. RESULTS: Mean age of the study population was 50.53 (SD 9.79) years and mean follow-up was 4.89 (SD 2.24) years. The NL-IHRS had moderate to good discrimination for incident CVD across geographic regions (concordance statistic (C-statistic) ranging from 0.64 to 0.74), although recalibration was necessary in all regions, which improved its performance in the overall cohort (increase in C-statistic from 0.69 to 0.72, p<0.001). Regional recalibration was also necessary for the FC-IHRS, which also improved its overall discrimination (increase in C-statistic from 0.71 to 0.74, p<0.001). In 85 078 participants with complete data for both scores, discrimination was only modestly better with the FC-IHRS compared with the NL-IHRS (0.74 vs 0.73, p<0.001)...

Secondary CV Prevention in South America in a community setting: the PURE study

BACKGROUND: Despite the availability of evidence-based therapies, there is no information on the use of medications for the secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease in urban and rural community settings in South America. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to assess the use, and its predictors, of effective secondary prevention therapies in individuals with a history of coronary heart disease (CHD) or stroke.METHODS: In the PURE (Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiological) study, we enrolled 24,713 individuals from South America ages 35 to 70 years from 97 rural and urban communities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Colombia. We assessed the use of proven therapies with standardized questionnaires. We report estimates of drug use at national, community, and individual levels and the independent predictors of their utilization through a multivariable analysis model. RESULTS:Of 24,713 individuals, 910 had a self-reported CHD event (at a median of 5 years earlier) and 407 had stroke (6 years earlier). The proportions of individuals with CHD who received antiplatelet medications (30.1%), beta-blockers (34.2%), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, or angiotensin-receptor blockers (36.0%), or statins (18.0%) were low; with even lower proportions among stroke patients (antiplatelets 24.3%, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin-receptor blockers 37.6%, statins 9.8%). A substantial proportion of patients did not receive any proven therapy (CHD 31%, stroke 54%). A minority of patients received either all 4 (4.1%) or 3 proven therapies (3.3%). Male sex, age >60 years, better education, more wealth, urban location, diabetes, and obesity were associated with higher rates of medication use. In a multivariable model, markers of wealth had the largest impact in secondary prevention...

Association of dietary nutrients with blood lipids and blood pressure in 18 countries: a cross-sectional analysis from the PURE study

BACKGROUND: The relation between dietary nutrients and cardiovascular disease risk markers in many regions worldwide is unknown. In this study, we investigated the effect of dietary nutrients on blood lipids and blood pressure, two of the most important risk factors for cardiovascular disease, in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries.METHODS: We studied 125 287 participants from 18 countries in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, and Asia in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study. Habitual food intake was measured with validated food frequency questionnaires. We assessed the associations between nutrients (total fats, saturated fatty acids, monounsaturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, carbohydrates, protein, and dietary cholesterol) and cardiovascular disease risk markers using multilevel modelling. The effect of isocaloric replacement of saturated fatty acids with other fats and carbohydrates was determined overall and by levels of intakes by use of nutrient density models. We did simulation modelling in which we assumed that the effects of saturated fatty acids on cardiovascular disease events was solely related to their association through an individual risk marker, and then compared these simulated risk marker-based estimates with directly observed associations of saturated fatty acids with cardiovascular disease events.