Effects of increasing soil moisture on Antarctic desert microbial ecosystems.

Overgeneralization and a lack of baseline data for microorganisms in high-latitude environments have restricted the understanding of the microbial response to climate change, which is needed to establish Antarctic conservation frameworks. To bridge this gap, we examined over 17,000 sequence variants of bacteria and microeukarya across the hyperarid Vestfold Hills and Windmill Islands regions of eastern Antarctica. Using an extended gradient forest model, we quantified multispecies response to variations along 79 edaphic gradients to explore the effects of change and wind-driven dispersal on community dynamics under projected warming trends. We also analyzed a second set of soil community data from the Windmill Islands to test our predictions of major environmental tipping points. Soil moisture was the most robust predictor for shaping the regional soil microbiome; the highest rates of compositional turnover occurred at 10-12% soil moisture threshold for photoautotrophs, such as Cyanobacteria, Chlorophyta, and Ochrophyta. Dust profiles revealed a high dispersal propensity for Chlamydomonas, a microalga, and higher biomass was detected at trafficked research stations. This could signal the potential for algal blooms and increased nonendemic species dispersal as human activities increase in the region. Predicted increases in moisture availability on the Windmill Islands were accompanied by high photoautotroph abundances. Abundances of rare oligotrophic taxa, such as Eremiobacterota and Candidatus Dormibacterota, which play a crucial role in atmospheric chemosynthesis, declined over time. That photosynthetic taxa increased as soil moisture increased under a warming scenario suggests the potential for competition between primary production strategies and thus a more biotically driven ecosystem should the climate become milder. Better understanding of environmental triggers will aid conservation efforts, and it is crucial that long-term monitoring of our study sites be established for the protection of Antarctic desert ecosystems. Furthermore, the successful implementation of an improved gradient forest model presents an exciting opportunity to broaden its use on microbial systems globally.

Efectos del incremento de la humedad del suelo sobre los ecosistemas microbianos del desierto antártico Resumen La sobre generalización y la falta de datos de línea base de los microorganismos en los ambientes de latitudes elevadas han limitado el conocimiento de la respuesta microbiana al cambio climático, la cual es necesaria para establecer marcos de conservación en la Antártida. Para cerrar esta brecha analizamos más de 17,000 variantes de secuencias de bacterias y micro eucariontes de las regiones híper­áridas de las Colinas Vestfold y las Islas Windmill en el este de la Antártida. Usamos un modelo de gradiente de bosque extendido para cuantificar la respuesta de múltiples especies a la variación de 79 gradientes edáficos y así explorar los efectos del cambio y la dispersión eólica sobre las dinámicas comunitarias bajo las tendencias proyectadas de calentamiento. También analizamos un segundo conjunto de datos de la comunidad del suelo de las Islas Windmill para probar nuestras predicciones de los principales puntos de inflexión ambiental. La humedad del suelo fue el pronóstico más sólido para la composición del microbioma del suelo regional; las tasas más altas de rotación composicional ocurrieron con el 10­12% de humedad del suelo para los fotoautótrofos, como Cyanobacteria, Chlorophyta, y Ochrophyta. Los perfiles de polvo revelaron una alta tendencia de dispersión para Chlamydomonas, una microalga, y detectamos una biomasa más alta en las estaciones de investigación con tráfico. Esto podría significar un potencial para el brote de algas y un incremento en la dispersión de especies no endémicas conforme las actividades humanas incrementan en la región. El incremento pronosticado de la humedad disponible en las Islas Windmill estuvo acompañado de una abundancia elevada de fotoautótrofos. Hubo una declinación con el tiempo en la abundancia de taxones raros, como Eremiobacterota y Ca. Dormibacterota, las cuales tienen un papel importante en la síntesis química de la atmósfera. Que exista un incremento de taxones fotosintéticos junto con el incremento de la humedad del suelo bajo un escenario de calentamiento sugiere un potencial de competencia entre las estrategias primarias de producción, y por lo tanto un ecosistema con más factores bióticos, si es que el clima se vuelve más templado. Un mejor entendimiento de los detonadores ambientales ayudará a los esfuerzos de conservación, además que es importante que se establezca el monitoreo a largo plazo de nuestros sitios de estudio para la protección de los ecosistemas del desierto de la Antártida. Más aún, la implementación exitosa de un modelo de gradiente de bosque mejorado representa una oportunidad emocionante para ampliar su uso en los sistemas microbianos de mundo.

Conservation features of the terrestrial Antarctic Peninsula.

Conserving landscapes used by multiple stakeholder groups requires understanding of what each stakeholder values. Here we employed a semi-structured, participatory approach to identify features of value in the terrestrial Antarctic Peninsula related to biodiversity, science and tourism. Stakeholders identified 115 features, ranging from Adélie penguin colonies to sites suitable for snowshoeing tourists. We split the features into seven broad categories: science, tourism, historic, biodiversity, geographic, habitat, and intrinsic features, finding that the biodiversity category contained the most features of any one category, while science stakeholders identified the most features of any stakeholder group. Stakeholders have overlapping interests in some features, particularly for seals and seabirds, indicating that thoughtful consideration of their inclusion in future management is required. Acknowledging the importance of tourism and other social features in Antarctica and ensuring their integration into conservation planning and assessment will increase the likelihood of implementing successful environmental management strategies into the future.

TerrANTALife 1.0 Biodiversity data checklist of known Antarctic terrestrial and freshwater life forms.

Background: Incomplete species inventories for Antarctica represent a key challenge for comprehensive ecological research and conservation in the region. Additionally, data required to understand population dynamics, rates of evolution, spatial ranges, functional traits, physiological tolerances and species interactions, all of which are fundamental to disentangle the different functional elements of Antarctic biodiversity, are mostly missing. However, much of the fauna, flora and microbiota in the emerged ice-free land of the continent have an uncertain presence and/or unresolved status, with entire biodiversity compendia of prokaryotic groups (e.g. bacteria) being missing. All the available biodiversity information requires consolidation, cross-validation, re-assessment and steady systematic inclusion in order to create a robust catalogue of biodiversity for the continent. New information: We compiled, completed and revised eukaryotic species inventories present in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems in Antarctica in a new living database: terrANTALife (version 1.0). The database includes the first integration in a compendium for many groups of eukaryotic microorganisms. We also introduce a first catalogue of amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) of prokaryotic biodiversity. Available compendia and literature to date were searched for Antarctic terrestrial and freshwater species, integrated, taxonomically harmonised and curated by experts to create comprehensive checklists of Antarctic organisms. The final inventories comprises 470 animal species (including vertebrates, free-living invertebrates and parasites), 306 plants (including all Viridiplantae: embryophytes and green algae), 997 fungal species and 434 protists (sensu lato). We also provide a first account for many groups of microorganisms, including non-lichenised fungi and multiple groups of eukaryotic unicellular species (Stramenophila, Alveolata and Rhizaria (SAR), Chromists and Amoeba), jointly referred to as "protists". In addition, we identify 1753 bacterial (obtained from 348117 ASVs) and 34 archaeal genera (from 1848 ASVs), as well as, at least, 14 virus families. We formulate a basic tree of life in Antarctica with the main lineages listed in the region and their "known-accepted-species" numbers.

Threat management priorities for conserving Antarctic biodiversity.

Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity faces multiple threats, from invasive species to climate change. Yet no large-scale assessments of threat management strategies exist. Applying a structured participatory approach, we demonstrate that existing conservation efforts are insufficient in a changing world, estimating that 65% (at best 37%, at worst 97%) of native terrestrial taxa and land-associated seabirds are likely to decline by 2100 under current trajectories. Emperor penguins are identified as the most vulnerable taxon, followed by other seabirds and dry soil nematodes. We find that implementing 10 key threat management strategies in parallel, at an estimated present-day equivalent annual cost of US$23 million, could benefit up to 84% of Antarctic taxa. Climate change is identified as the most pervasive threat to Antarctic biodiversity and influencing global policy to effectively limit climate change is the most beneficial conservation strategy. However, minimising impacts of human activities and improved planning and management of new infrastructure projects are cost-effective and will help to minimise regional threats. Simultaneous global and regional efforts are critical to secure Antarctic biodiversity for future generations.

A function-based typology for Earth's ecosystems.

As the United Nations develops a post-2020 global biodiversity framework for the Convention on Biological Diversity, attention is focusing on how new goals and targets for ecosystem conservation might serve its vision of 'living in harmony with nature'1,2. Advancing dual imperatives to conserve biodiversity and sustain ecosystem services requires reliable and resilient generalizations and predictions about ecosystem responses to environmental change and management3. Ecosystems vary in their biota4, service provision5 and relative exposure to risks6, yet there is no globally consistent classification of ecosystems that reflects functional responses to change and management. This hampers progress on developing conservation targets and sustainability goals. Here we present the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Global Ecosystem Typology, a conceptually robust, scalable, spatially explicit approach for generalizations and predictions about functions, biota, risks and management remedies across the entire biosphere. The outcome of a major cross-disciplinary collaboration, this novel framework places all of Earth's ecosystems into a unifying theoretical context to guide the transformation of ecosystem policy and management from global to local scales. This new information infrastructure will support knowledge transfer for ecosystem-specific management and restoration, globally standardized ecosystem risk assessments, natural capital accounting and progress on the post-2020 global biodiversity framework.

Atmospheric chemosynthesis is phylogenetically and geographically widespread and contributes significantly to carbon fixation throughout cold deserts.

Cold desert soil microbiomes thrive despite severe moisture and nutrient limitations. In Eastern Antarctic soils, bacterial primary production is supported by trace gas oxidation and the light-independent RuBisCO form IE. This study aims to determine if atmospheric chemosynthesis is widespread within Antarctic, Arctic and Tibetan cold deserts, to identify the breadth of trace gas chemosynthetic taxa and to further characterize the genetic determinants of this process. H2 oxidation was ubiquitous, far exceeding rates reported to fulfill the maintenance needs of similarly structured edaphic microbiomes. Atmospheric chemosynthesis occurred globally, contributing significantly (p < 0.05) to carbon fixation in Antarctica and the high Arctic. Taxonomic and functional analyses were performed upon 18 cold desert metagenomes, 230 dereplicated medium-to-high-quality derived metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) and an additional 24,080 publicly available genomes. Hydrogenotrophic and carboxydotrophic growth markers were widespread. RuBisCO IE was discovered to co-occur alongside trace gas oxidation enzymes in representative Chloroflexota, Firmicutes, Deinococcota and Verrucomicrobiota genomes. We identify a novel group of high-affinity [NiFe]-hydrogenases, group 1m, through phylogenetics, gene structure analysis and homology modeling, and reveal substantial genetic diversity within RuBisCO form IE (rbcL1E), and high-affinity 1h and 1l [NiFe]-hydrogenase groups. We conclude that atmospheric chemosynthesis is a globally-distributed phenomenon, extending throughout cold deserts, with significant implications for the global carbon cycle and bacterial survival within environmental reservoirs.

Environmental DNA metabarcoding for monitoring metazoan biodiversity in Antarctic nearshore ecosystems.

Antarctic benthic ecosystems support high biodiversity but their characterization is limited to a few well-studied areas, due to the extreme environment and remoteness making access and sampling difficult. Our aim was to compare water and sediment as sources of environmental DNA (eDNA) to better characterise Antarctic benthic communities and further develop practical approaches for DNA-based biodiversity assessment in remote environments. We used a cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) metabarcoding approach to characterise metazoan communities in 26 nearshore sites across 12 locations in the Vestfold Hills (East Antarctica) based on DNA extracted from either sediment cores or filtered seawater. We detected a total of 99 metazoan species from 12 phyla across 26 sites, with similar numbers of species detected in sediment and water eDNA samples. However, significantly different communities were detected in the two sample types at sites where both were collected (i.e., where paired samples were available). For example, nematodes and echinoderms were more likely to be detected exclusively in sediment and water eDNA samples, respectively. eDNA from water and sediment core samples are complementary sample types, with epifauna more likely to be detected in water column samples and infauna in sediment. More reference DNA sequences are needed for infauna/meiofauna to increase the proportion of sequences and number of taxa that can be identified. Developing a better understanding of the temporal and spatial dynamics of eDNA at low temperatures would also aid interpretation of eDNA signals from polar environments. Our results provide a preliminary scan of benthic metazoan communities in the Vestfold Hills, with additional markers required to provide a comprehensive biodiversity survey. However, our study demonstrates the choice of sample type for eDNA studies of benthic ecosystems (sediment, water or both) needs to be carefully considered in light of the research or monitoring question of interest.

Soil Microbiomes With the Genetic Capacity for Atmospheric Chemosynthesis Are Widespread Across the Poles and Are Associated With Moisture, Carbon, and Nitrogen Limitation.

Soil microbiomes within oligotrophic cold deserts are extraordinarily diverse. Increasingly, oligotrophic sites with low levels of phototrophic primary producers are reported, leading researchers to question their carbon and energy sources. A novel microbial carbon fixation process termed atmospheric chemosynthesis recently filled this gap as it was shown to be supporting primary production at two Eastern Antarctic deserts. Atmospheric chemosynthesis uses energy liberated from the oxidation of atmospheric hydrogen to drive the Calvin-Benson-Bassham (CBB) cycle through a new chemotrophic form of ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (RuBisCO), designated IE. Here, we propose that the genetic determinants of this process; RuBisCO type IE (rbcL1E) and high affinity group 1h-[NiFe]-hydrogenase (hhyL) are widespread across cold desert soils and that this process is linked to dry and nutrient-poor environments. We used quantitative PCR (qPCR) to quantify these genes in 122 soil microbiomes across the three poles; spanning the Tibetan Plateau, 10 Antarctic and three high Arctic sites. Both genes were ubiquitous, being present at variable abundances in all 122 soils examined (rbcL1E, 6.25 × 103-1.66 × 109 copies/g soil; hhyL, 6.84 × 103-5.07 × 108 copies/g soil). For the Antarctic and Arctic sites, random forest and correlation analysis against 26 measured soil physicochemical parameters revealed that rbcL1E and hhyL genes were associated with lower soil moisture, carbon and nitrogen content. While further studies are required to quantify the rates of trace gas carbon fixation and the organisms involved, we highlight the global potential of desert soil microbiomes to be supported by this new minimalistic mode of carbon fixation, particularly throughout dry oligotrophic environments, which encompass more than 35% of the Earth's surface.

Antarctica's wilderness fails to capture continent's biodiversity.

Recent assessments of Earth's dwindling wilderness have emphasized that Antarctica is a crucial wilderness in need of protection1,2. Yet human impacts on the continent are widespread3-5, the extent of its wilderness unquantified2 and the importance thereof for biodiversity conservation unknown. Here we assemble a comprehensive record of human activity (approximately 2.7 million records, spanning 200 years) and use it to quantify the extent of Antarctica's wilderness and its representation of biodiversity. We show that 99.6% of the continent's area can still be considered wilderness, but this area captures few biodiversity features. Pristine areas, free from human interference, cover a much smaller area (less than 32% of Antarctica) and are declining as human activity escalates6. Urgent expansion of Antarctica's network of specially protected areas7 can both reverse this trend and secure the continent's biodiversity8-10.

Basal tolerance but not plasticity gives invasive springtails the advantage in an assemblage setting.

As global climates change, alien species are anticipated to have a growing advantage relative to their indigenous counterparts, mediated through consistent trait differences between the groups. These insights have largely been developed based on interspecific comparisons using multiple species examined from different locations. Whether such consistent physiological trait differences are present within assemblages is not well understood, especially for animals. Yet, it is at the assemblage level that interactions play out. Here, we examine whether physiological trait differences observed at the interspecific level are also applicable to assemblages. We focus on the Collembola, an important component of the soil fauna characterized by invasions globally, and five traits related to fitness: critical thermal maximum, minimum and range, desiccation resistance and egg development rate. We test the predictions that the alien component of a local assemblage has greater basal physiological tolerances or higher rates, and more pronounced phenotypic plasticity than the indigenous component. Basal critical thermal maximum, thermal tolerance range, desiccation resistance, optimum temperature for egg development, the rate of development at that optimum and the upper temperature limiting egg hatching success are all significantly higher, on average, for the alien than the indigenous components of the assemblage. Outcomes for critical thermal minimum are variable. No significant differences in phenotypic plasticity exist between the alien and indigenous components of the assemblage. These results are consistent with previous interspecific studies investigating basal thermal tolerance limits and development rates and their phenotypic plasticity, in arthropods, but are inconsistent with results from previous work on desiccation resistance. Thus, for the Collembola, the anticipated advantage of alien over indigenous species under warming and drying is likely to be manifest in local assemblages, globally.

Introduced species and extreme weather as key drivers of reproductive output in three sympatric albatrosses.

Invasive species present a major conservation threat globally and nowhere are their affects more pronounced than in island ecosystems. Determining how native island populations respond demographically to invasive species can provide information to mitigate the negative effects of invasive species. Using 20 years of mark-recapture data from three sympatric species of albatrosses (black-browed Thalassarche melanophris, grey-headed T. chrysostoma, and light-mantled albatrosses Phoebetria palpebrata), we quantified the influence of invasive European rabbits Oryctolagus cuniculus and extreme weather patterns on breeding probability and success. Temporal variability in rabbit density explained 33-76% of the variability in breeding probability for all three species, with severe decreases in breeding probability observed after a lag period following highest rabbit numbers. For black-browed albatrosses, the combination of extreme rainfall and high rabbit density explained 33% of total trait variability and dramatically reduced breeding success. We showed that invasive rabbits and extreme weather events reduce reproductive output in albatrosses and that eliminating rabbits had a positive effect on albatross reproduction. This illustrates how active animal management at a local breeding site can result in positive population outcomes even for wide ranging animals like albatrosses where influencing vital rates during their at-sea migrations is more challenging.

Lifting the veil on arid-to-hyperarid Antarctic soil microbiomes: a tale of two oases.

BACKGROUND: Resident soil microbiota play key roles in sustaining the core ecosystem processes of terrestrial Antarctica, often involving unique taxa with novel functional traits. However, the full scope of biodiversity and the niche-neutral processes underlying these communities remain unclear. In this study, we combine multivariate analyses, co-occurrence networks and fitted species abundance distributions on an extensive set of bacterial, micro-eukaryote and archaeal amplicon sequencing data to unravel soil microbiome patterns of nine sites across two east Antarctic regions, the Vestfold Hills and Windmill Islands. To our knowledge, this is the first microbial biodiversity report on the hyperarid Vestfold Hills soil environment. RESULTS: Our findings reveal distinct regional differences in phylogenetic composition, abundance and richness amongst microbial taxa. Actinobacteria dominated soils in both regions, yet Bacteroidetes were more abundant in the Vestfold Hills compared to the Windmill Islands, which contained a high abundance of novel phyla. However, intra-region comparisons demonstrate greater homogeneity of soil microbial communities and measured environmental parameters between sites at the Vestfold Hills. Community richness is largely driven by a variable suite of parameters but robust associations between co-existing members highlight potential interactions and sharing of niche space by diverse taxa from all three microbial domains of life examined. Overall, non-neutral processes appear to structure the polar soil microbiomes studied here, with niche partitioning being particularly strong for bacterial communities at the Windmill Islands. Eukaryotic and archaeal communities reveal weaker niche-driven signatures accompanied by multimodality, suggesting the emergence of neutrality. CONCLUSION: We provide new information on assemblage patterns, environmental drivers and non-random occurrences for Antarctic soil microbiomes, particularly the Vestfold Hills, where basic diversity, ecology and life history strategies of resident microbiota are largely unknown. Greater understanding of these basic ecological concepts is a pivotal step towards effective conservation management.

Genome-wide SNP data reveal improved evidence for Antarctic glacial refugia and dispersal of terrestrial invertebrates.

Antarctica is isolated, surrounded by the Southern Ocean and has experienced extreme environmental conditions for millions of years, including during recent Pleistocene glacial maxima. How Antarctic terrestrial species might have survived these glaciations has been a topic of intense interest, yet many questions remain unanswered, particularly for Antarctica's invertebrate fauna. We examine whether genetic data from a widespread group of terrestrial invertebrates, springtails (Collembola, Isotomidae) of the genus Cryptopygus, show evidence for long-term survival in glacial refugia along the Antarctic Peninsula. We use genome-wide SNP analyses (via genotyping-by-sequencing, GBS) and mitochondrial data to examine population diversity and differentiation across more than 20 sites spanning >950 km on the Peninsula, and from islands both close to the Peninsula and up to ~1,900 km away. Population structure analysis indicates the presence of strong local clusters of diversity, and we infer that patterns represent a complex interplay of isolation in local refugia coupled with occasional successful long-distance dispersal events. We identified wind and degree days as significant environmental drivers of genetic diversity, with windier and warmer sites hosting higher diversity. Thus, we infer that refugial areas along the Antarctic Peninsula have allowed populations of indigenous springtails to survive in situ throughout glacial periods. Despite the difficulties of dispersal in cold, desiccating conditions, Cryptopygus springtails on the Peninsula appear to have achieved multiple long-distance colonization events, most likely through wind-related dispersal events.

The influence of landscape, climate and history on spatial genetic patterns in keystone plants (Azorella) on sub-Antarctic islands.

The distribution of genetic variation in species is governed by factors that act differently across spatial scales. To tease apart the contribution of different processes, especially at intermediate spatial scales, it is useful to study simple ecosystems such as those on sub-Antarctic oceanic islands. In this study, we characterize spatial genetic patterns of two keystone plant species, Azorella selago on sub-Antarctic Marion Island and Azorella macquariensis on sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island. Although both islands experience a similar climate and have a similar vegetation structure, they differ significantly in topography and geological history. We genotyped six microsatellites for 1,149 individuals from 123 sites across Marion Island and 372 individuals from 42 sites across Macquarie Island. We tested for spatial patterns in genetic diversity, including correlation with elevation and vegetation type, and clines in different directional bearings. We also examined genetic differentiation within islands, isolation-by-distance with and without accounting for direction, and signals of demographic change. Marion Island was found to have a distinct northwest-southeast divide, with lower genetic diversity and more sites with a signal of population expansion in the northwest. We attribute this to asymmetric seed dispersal by the dominant northwesterly winds, and to population persistence in a southwestern refugium during the Last Glacial Maximum. No apparent spatial pattern, but greater genetic diversity and differentiation between sites, was found on Macquarie Island, which may be due to the narrow length of the island in the direction of the dominant winds and longer population persistence permitted by the lack of extensive glaciation on the island. Together, our results clearly illustrate the implications of island shape and geography, and the importance of direction-dependent drivers, in shaping spatial genetic structure.

A snapshot of biodiversity protection in Antarctica.

Threats to Antarctic biodiversity are escalating, despite its remoteness and protection under the Antarctic Treaty. Increasing human activity, pollution, biological invasions and the omnipresent impacts of climate change all contribute, and often combine, to exert pressure on Antarctic ecosystems and environments. Here we present a continent-wide assessment of terrestrial biodiversity protection in Antarctica. Despite Antarctic Specially Protected Areas covering less than 2% of Antarctica, 44% of species (including seabirds, plants, lichens and invertebrates) are found in one or more protected areas. However, protection is regionally uneven and biased towards easily detectable and charismatic species like seabirds. Systematic processes to prioritize area protection using the best available data will maximize the likelihood of ensuring long-term protection and conservation of Antarctic biodiversity.

An Empirical and Mechanistic Explanation of Abundance-Occupancy Relationships for a Critically Endangered Nomadic Migrant.

The positive abundance-occupancy relationship (AOR) is a pervasive pattern in macroecology. Similarly, the association between occupancy (or probability of occurrence) and abundance is also usually assumed to be positive and in most cases constant. Examples of AORs for nomadic species with variable distributions are extremely rare. Here we examined temporal and spatial trends in the AOR over 7 years for a critically endangered nomadic migrant that relies on dynamic pulses in food availability to breed. We predicted a negative temporal relationship, where local mean abundances increase when the number of occupied sites decreases, and a positive relationship between local abundances and the probability of occurrence. We also predicted that these patterns are largely attributable to spatiotemporal variation in food abundance. The temporal AOR was significantly negative, and annual food availability was significantly positively correlated with the number of occupied sites but negatively correlated with abundance. Thus, as food availability decreased, local densities of birds increased, and vice versa. The abundance-probability of occurrence relationship was positive and nonlinear but varied between years due to differing degrees of spatial aggregation caused by changing food availability. Importantly, high abundance (or occupancy) did not necessarily equate to high-quality habitat and may be indicative of resource bottlenecks or exposure to other processes affecting vital rates. Our results provide a rare empirical example that highlights the complexity of AORs for species that target aggregated food resources in dynamic environments.

Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat.

Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity occurs almost exclusively in ice-free areas that cover less than 1% of the continent. Climate change will alter the extent and configuration of ice-free areas, yet the distribution and severity of these effects remain unclear. Here we quantify the impact of twenty-first century climate change on ice-free areas under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate forcing scenarios using temperature-index melt modelling. Under the strongest forcing scenario, ice-free areas could expand by over 17,000 km2 by the end of the century, close to a 25% increase. Most of this expansion will occur in the Antarctic Peninsula, where a threefold increase in ice-free area could drastically change the availability and connectivity of biodiversity habitat. Isolated ice-free areas will coalesce, and while the effects on biodiversity are uncertain, we hypothesize that they could eventually lead to increasing regional-scale biotic homogenization, the extinction of less-competitive species and the spread of invasive species.

Antarctica and the strategic plan for biodiversity.

The Strategic Plan for Biodiversity, adopted under the auspices of the Convention on Biological Diversity, provides the basis for taking effective action to curb biodiversity loss across the planet by 2020-an urgent imperative. Yet, Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, which encompass 10% of the planet's surface, are excluded from assessments of progress against the Strategic Plan. The situation is a lost opportunity for biodiversity conservation globally. We provide such an assessment. Our evidence suggests, surprisingly, that for a region so remote and apparently pristine as the Antarctic, the biodiversity outlook is similar to that for the rest of the planet. Promisingly, however, much scope for remedial action exists.

The importance of incorporating functional habitats into conservation planning for highly mobile species in dynamic systems.

The distribution of mobile species in dynamic systems can vary greatly over time and space. Estimating their population size and geographic range can be problematic and affect the accuracy of conservation assessments. Scarce data on mobile species and the resources they need can also limit the type of analytical approaches available to derive such estimates. We quantified change in availability and use of key ecological resources required for breeding for a critically endangered nomadic habitat specialist, the Swift Parrot (Lathamus discolor). We compared estimates of occupied habitat derived from dynamic presence-background (i.e., presence-only data) climatic models with estimates derived from dynamic occupancy models that included a direct measure of food availability. We then compared estimates that incorporate fine-resolution spatial data on the availability of key ecological resources (i.e., functional habitats) with more common approaches that focus on broader climatic suitability or vegetation cover (due to the absence of fine-resolution data). The occupancy models produced significantly (P < 0.001) smaller (up to an order of magnitude) and more spatially discrete estimates of the total occupied area than climate-based models. The spatial location and extent of the total area occupied with the occupancy models was highly variable between years (131 and 1498 km2 ). Estimates accounting for the area of functional habitats were significantly smaller (2-58% [SD 16]) than estimates based only on the total area occupied. An increase or decrease in the area of one functional habitat (foraging or nesting) did not necessarily correspond to an increase or decrease in the other. Thus, an increase in the extent of occupied area may not equate to improved habitat quality or function. We argue these patterns are typical for mobile resource specialists but often go unnoticed because of limited data over relevant spatial and temporal scales and lack of spatial data on the availability of key resources. Understanding changes in the relative availability of functional habitats is crucial to informing conservation planning and accurately assessing extinction risk for mobile resource specialists.

Global thermal niche models of two European grasses show high invasion risks in Antarctica.

The two non-native grasses that have established long-term populations in Antarctica (Poa pratensis and Poa annua) were studied from a global multidimensional thermal niche perspective to address the biological invasion risk to Antarctica. These two species exhibit contrasting introduction histories and reproductive strategies and represent two referential case studies of biological invasion processes. We used a multistep process with a range of species distribution modelling techniques (ecological niche factor analysis, multidimensional envelopes, distance/entropy algorithms) together with a suite of thermoclimatic variables, to characterize the potential ranges of these species. Their native bioclimatic thermal envelopes in Eurasia, together with the different naturalized populations across continents, were compared next. The potential niche of P. pratensis was wider at the cold extremes; however, P. annua life history attributes enable it to be a more successful colonizer. We observe that particularly cold summers are a key aspect of the unique Antarctic environment. In consequence, ruderals such as P. annua can quickly expand under such harsh conditions, whereas the more stress-tolerant P. pratensis endures and persist through steady growth. Compiled data on human pressure at the Antarctic Peninsula allowed us to provide site-specific biosecurity risk indicators. We conclude that several areas across the region are vulnerable to invasions from these and other similar species. This can only be visualized in species distribution models (SDMs) when accounting for founder populations that reveal nonanalogous conditions. Results reinforce the need for strict management practices to minimize introductions. Furthermore, our novel set of temperature-based bioclimatic GIS layers for ice-free terrestrial Antarctica provide a mechanism for regional and global species distribution models to be built for other potentially invasive species.