Computational single-cell methods for predicting cancer risk.

Despite recent biotechnological breakthroughs, cancer risk prediction remains a formidable computational and experimental challenge. Addressing it is critical in order to improve prevention, early detection and survival rates. Here, I briefly summarize some key emerging theoretical and computational challenges as well as recent computational advances that promise to help realize the goals of cancer-risk prediction. The focus is on computational strategies based on single-cell data, in particular on bottom-up network modeling approaches that aim to estimate cancer stemness and dedifferentiation at single-cell resolution from a systems-biological perspective. I will describe two promising methods, a tissue and cell-lineage independent one based on the concept of diffusion network entropy, and a tissue and cell-lineage specific one that uses transcription factor regulons. Application of these tools to single-cell and single-nucleus RNA-seq data from stages prior to invasive cancer reveal that they can successfully delineate the heterogeneous inter-cellular cancer-risk landscape, identifying those cells that are more likely to turn cancerous. Bottom-up systems biological modeling of single-cell omic data is a novel computational analysis paradigm that promises to facilitate the development of preventive, early detection and cancer-risk prediction strategies.

Quantifying the stochastic component of epigenetic aging.

DNA methylation clocks can accurately estimate chronological age and, to some extent, also biological age, yet the process by which age-associated DNA methylation (DNAm) changes are acquired appears to be quasi-stochastic, raising a fundamental question: how much of an epigenetic clock's predictive accuracy could be explained by a stochastic process of DNAm change? Here, using DNAm data from sorted immune cells, we build realistic simulation models, subsequently demonstrating in over 22,770 sorted and whole-blood samples from 25 independent cohorts that approximately 66-75% of the accuracy underpinning Horvath's clock could be driven by a stochastic process. This fraction increases to 90% for the more accurate Zhang's clock, but is lower (63%) for the PhenoAge clock, suggesting that biological aging is reflected by nonstochastic processes. Confirming this, we demonstrate that Horvath's age acceleration in males and PhenoAge's age acceleration in severe coronavirus disease 2019 cases and smokers are not driven by an increased rate of stochastic change but by nonstochastic processes. These results significantly deepen our understanding and interpretation of epigenetic clocks.

An improved epigenetic counter to track mitotic age in normal and precancerous tissues.

The cumulative number of stem cell divisions in a tissue, known as mitotic age, is thought to be a major determinant of cancer-risk. Somatic mutational and DNA methylation (DNAm) clocks are promising tools to molecularly track mitotic age, yet their relationship is underexplored and their potential for cancer risk prediction in normal tissues remains to be demonstrated. Here we build and validate an improved pan-tissue DNAm counter of total mitotic age called stemTOC. We demonstrate that stemTOC's mitotic age proxy increases with the tumor cell-of-origin fraction in each of 15 cancer-types, in precancerous lesions, and in normal tissues exposed to major cancer risk factors. Extensive benchmarking against 6 other mitotic counters shows that stemTOC compares favorably, specially in the preinvasive and normal-tissue contexts. By cross-correlating stemTOC to two clock-like somatic mutational signatures, we confirm the mitotic-like nature of only one of these. Our data points towards DNAm as a promising molecular substrate for detecting mitotic-age increases in normal tissues and precancerous lesions, and hence for developing cancer-risk prediction strategies.

Longitudinal analysis of epigenome-wide DNA methylation reveals novel loci associated with BMI change in East Asians.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a global public health concern linked to chronic diseases such as cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes (T2D). Emerging evidence suggests that epigenetic modifications, particularly DNA methylation, may contribute to obesity. However, the molecular mechanism underlying the longitudinal change of BMI has not been well-explored, especially in East Asian populations. METHODS: This study performed a longitudinal epigenome-wide association analysis of DNA methylation to uncover novel loci associated with BMI change in 533 individuals across two Chinese cohorts with repeated DNA methylation and BMI measurements over four years. RESULTS: We identified three novel CpG sites (cg14671384, cg25540824, and cg10848724) significantly associated with BMI change. Two of the identified CpG sites were located in regions previously associated with body shape and basal metabolic rate. Annotation of the top 20 BMI change-associated CpGs revealed strong connections to obesity and T2D. Notably, these CpGs exhibited active regulatory roles and located in genes with high expression in the liver and digestive tract, suggesting a potential regulatory pathway from genome to phenotypes of energy metabolism and absorption via DNA methylation. Cross-sectional and longitudinal EWAS comparisons indicated different mechanisms between CpGs related to BMI and BMI change. CONCLUSION: This study enhances our understanding of the epigenetic dynamics underlying BMI change and emphasizes the value of longitudinal analyses in deciphering the complex interplay between epigenetics and obesity.

Analysis of blood methylation quantitative trait loci in East Asians reveals ancestry-specific impacts on complex traits.

Methylation quantitative trait loci (mQTLs) are essential for understanding the role of DNA methylation changes in genetic predisposition, yet they have not been fully characterized in East Asians (EAs). Here we identified mQTLs in whole blood from 3,523 Chinese individuals and replicated them in additional 1,858 Chinese individuals from two cohorts. Over 9% of mQTLs displayed specificity to EAs, facilitating the fine-mapping of EA-specific genetic associations, as shown for variants associated with height. Trans-mQTL hotspots revealed biological pathways contributing to EA-specific genetic associations, including an ERG-mediated 233 trans-mCpG network, implicated in hematopoietic cell differentiation, which likely reflects binding efficiency modulation of the ERG protein complex. More than 90% of mQTLs were shared between different blood cell lineages, with a smaller fraction of lineage-specific mQTLs displaying preferential hypomethylation in the respective lineages. Our study provides new insights into the mQTL landscape across genetic ancestries and their downstream effects on cellular processes and diseases/traits.

On epigenetic stochasticity, entropy and cancer risk.

Epigenetic changes are known to accrue in normal cells as a result of ageing and cumulative exposure to cancer risk factors. Increasing evidence points towards age-related epigenetic changes being acquired in a quasi-stochastic manner, and that they may play a causal role in cancer development. Here, I describe the quasi-stochastic nature of DNA methylation (DNAm) changes in ageing cells as well as in normal cells at risk of neoplastic transformation, discussing the implications of this stochasticity for developing cancer risk prediction strategies, and in particular, how it may require a conceptual paradigm shift in how we select cancer risk markers. I also describe the mounting evidence that a significant proportion of DNAm changes in ageing and cancer development are related to cell proliferation, reflecting tissue-turnover and the opportunity this offers for predicting cancer risk via the development of epigenetic mitotic-like clocks. Finally, I describe how age-associated DNAm changes may be causally implicated in cancer development via an irreversible suppression of tissue-specific transcription factors that increases epigenetic and transcriptomic entropy, promoting a more plastic yet aberrant cancer stem-cell state. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Causes and consequences of stochastic processes in development and disease'.

Challenges and perspectives in computational deconvolution of genomics data.

Deciphering cell-type heterogeneity is crucial for systematically understanding tissue homeostasis and its dysregulation in diseases. Computational deconvolution is an efficient approach for estimating cell-type abundances from a variety of omics data. Despite substantial methodological progress in computational deconvolution in recent years, challenges are still outstanding. Here we enlist four important challenges related to computational deconvolution: the quality of the reference data, generation of ground truth data, limitations of computational methodologies, and benchmarking design and implementation. Finally, we make recommendations on reference data generation, new directions of computational methodologies, and strategies to promote rigorous benchmarking.

FORGEdb: a tool for identifying candidate functional variants and uncovering target genes and mechanisms for complex diseases.

The majority of disease-associated variants identified through genome-wide association studies are located outside of protein-coding regions. Prioritizing candidate regulatory variants and gene targets to identify potential biological mechanisms for further functional experiments can be challenging. To address this challenge, we developed FORGEdb ( https://forgedb.cancer.gov/ ; https://forge2.altiusinstitute.org/files/forgedb.html ; and https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10067458 ), a standalone and web-based tool that integrates multiple datasets, delivering information on associated regulatory elements, transcription factor binding sites, and target genes for over 37 million variants. FORGEdb scores provide researchers with a quantitative assessment of the relative importance of each variant for targeted functional experiments.

A meta-analysis of immune-cell fractions at high resolution reveals novel associations with common phenotypes and health outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Changes in cell-type composition of tissues are associated with a wide range of diseases and environmental risk factors and may be causally implicated in disease development and progression. However, these shifts in cell-type fractions are often of a low magnitude, or involve similar cell subtypes, making their reliable identification challenging. DNA methylation profiling in a tissue like blood is a promising approach to discover shifts in cell-type abundance, yet studies have only been performed at a relatively low cellular resolution and in isolation, limiting their power to detect shifts in tissue composition. METHODS: Here we derive a DNA methylation reference matrix for 12 immune-cell types in human blood and extensively validate it with flow-cytometric count data and in whole-genome bisulfite sequencing data of sorted cells. Using this reference matrix, we perform a directional Stouffer and fixed effects meta-analysis comprising 23,053 blood samples from 22 different cohorts, to comprehensively map associations between the 12 immune-cell fractions and common phenotypes. In a separate cohort of 4386 blood samples, we assess associations between immune-cell fractions and health outcomes. RESULTS: Our meta-analysis reveals many associations of cell-type fractions with age, sex, smoking and obesity, many of which we validate with single-cell RNA sequencing. We discover that naïve and regulatory T-cell subsets are higher in women compared to men, while the reverse is true for monocyte, natural killer, basophil, and eosinophil fractions. Decreased natural killer counts associated with smoking, obesity, and stress levels, while an increased count correlates with exercise and sleep. Analysis of health outcomes revealed that increased naïve CD4 + T-cell and N-cell fractions associated with a reduced risk of all-cause mortality independently of all major epidemiological risk factors and baseline co-morbidity. A machine learning predictor built only with immune-cell fractions achieved a C-index value for all-cause mortality of 0.69 (95%CI 0.67-0.72), which increased to 0.83 (0.80-0.86) upon inclusion of epidemiological risk factors and baseline co-morbidity. CONCLUSIONS: This work contributes an extensively validated high-resolution DNAm reference matrix for blood, which is made freely available, and uses it to generate a comprehensive map of associations between immune-cell fractions and common phenotypes, including health outcomes.

International Multicenter Study of Clinical Outcomes of Sinonasal Melanoma Shows Survival Benefit for Patients Treated with Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors and Potential Improvements to the Current TNM Staging System.

Objectives Sinonasal mucosal melanoma (SNMM) is an extremely rare and challenging sinonasal malignancy with a poor prognosis. Standard treatment involves complete surgical resection, but the role of adjuvant therapy remains unclear. Crucially, our understanding of its clinical presentation, course, and optimal treatment remains limited, and few advancements in improving its management have been made in the recent past. Methods We conducted an international multicenter retrospective analysis of 505 SNMM cases from 11 institutions across the United States, United Kingdom, Ireland, and continental Europe. Data on clinical presentation, diagnosis, treatment, and clinical outcomes were assessed. Results One-, three-, and five-year recurrence-free and overall survival were 61.4, 30.6, and 22.0%, and 77.6, 49.2, and 38.3%, respectively. Compared with disease confined to the nasal cavity, sinus involvement confers significantly worse survival; based on this, further stratifying the T3 stage was highly prognostic ( p < 0.001) with implications for a potential modification to the current TNM staging system. There was a statistically significant survival benefit for patients who received adjuvant radiotherapy, compared with those who underwent surgery alone (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.74, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.57-0.96, p = 0.021). Immune checkpoint blockade for the management of recurrent or persistent disease, with or without distant metastasis, conferred longer survival (HR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.25-1.00, p = 0.036). Conclusions We present findings from the largest cohort of SNMM reported to date. We demonstrate the potential utility of further stratifying the T3 stage by sinus involvement and present promising data on the benefit of immune checkpoint inhibitors for recurrent, persistent, or metastatic disease with implications for future clinical trials in this field.

Cell-attribute aware community detection improves differential abundance testing from single-cell RNA-Seq data.

Variations of cell-type proportions within tissues could be informative of biological aging and disease risk. Single-cell RNA-sequencing offers the opportunity to detect such differential abundance patterns, yet this task can be statistically challenging due to the noise in single-cell data, inter-sample variability and because such patterns are often of small effect size. Here we present a differential abundance testing paradigm called ELVAR that uses cell attribute aware clustering when inferring differentially enriched communities within the single-cell manifold. Using simulated and real single-cell and single-nucleus RNA-Seq datasets, we benchmark ELVAR against an analogous algorithm that uses Louvain for clustering, as well as local neighborhood-based methods, demonstrating that ELVAR improves the sensitivity to detect cell-type composition shifts in relation to aging, precancerous states and Covid-19 phenotypes. In effect, leveraging cell attribute information when inferring cell communities can denoise single-cell data, avoid the need for batch correction and help retrieve more robust cell states for subsequent differential abundance testing. ELVAR is available as an open-source R-package.

Cell-Type Deconvolution of Bulk DNA Methylation Data with EpiSCORE.

DNA methylation data generated from bulk tissue represents a mixture of many different cell types. Variation in the cell-type composition of tissues is thus a major confounder when inferring differential DNA methylation. Due to the high cost of single-cell methylome sequencing, computational methods that can dissect the cell-type heterogeneity of bulk DNA methylomes offer an efficient and cost-effective solution, especially in the context of large-scale EWAS. In this chapter, we present a step-by-step tutorial of Epigenetic cell-type deconvolution using Single-Cell Omic References (EpiSCORE), a reference-based method that leverages the high-resolution nature of single-cell RNA-Seq datasets to facilitate microdissection of bulk-tissue DNA methylomes.

Distance covariance entropy reveals primed states and bifurcation dynamics in single-cell RNA-Seq data.

Cell-fate transitions are fundamental to development and differentiation. Studying them with single-cell omic data is important to advance our understanding of the cell-fate commitment process, yet this remains challenging. Here we present a computational method called DICE, which analyzes the entropy of expression covariation patterns and which is applicable to static and dynamically changing cell populations. Using only single-cell RNA-Seq data, DICE is able to predict multipotent primed states and their regulatory factors, which we subsequently validate with single-cell epigenomic data. DICE reveals that primed states are often defined by epigenetic regulators or pioneer factors alongside lineage-specific transcription factors. In developmental time course single-cell RNA-Seq datasets, DICE can pinpoint the timing of bifurcations more precisely than lineage-trajectory inference algorithms or competing variance-based methods. In summary, by studying the dynamic changes of expression covariation entropy, DICE can help elucidate primed states and bifurcation dynamics without the need for single-cell epigenomic data.

Insights into the role of long non-coding RNAs in DNA methylation mediated transcriptional regulation.

DNA methylation is one of the most important epigenetic mechanisms that governing regulation of gene expression, aberrant DNA methylation patterns are strongly associated with human malignancies. Long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) have being discovered as a significant regulator on gene expression at the epigenetic level. Emerging evidences have indicated the intricate regulatory effects between lncRNAs and DNA methylation. On one hand, transcription of lncRNAs are controlled by the promoter methylation, which is similar to protein coding genes, on the other hand, lncRNA could interact with enzymes involved in DNA methylation to affect the methylation pattern of downstream genes, thus regulating their expression. In addition, circular RNAs (circRNAs) being an important class of noncoding RNA are also found to participate in this complex regulatory network. In this review, we summarize recent research progress on this crosstalk between lncRNA, circRNA, and DNA methylation as well as their potential functions in complex diseases including cancer. This work reveals a hidden layer for gene transcriptional regulation and enhances our understanding for epigenetics regarding detailed mechanisms on lncRNA regulatory function in human cancers.

dbDEMC 3.0: Functional Exploration of Differentially Expressed miRNAs in Cancers of Human and Model Organisms.

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are important regulators in gene expression. The dysregulation of miRNA expression is widely reported in the transformation from physiological to pathological states of cells. A large number of differentially expressed miRNAs (DEMs) have been identified in various human cancers by using high-throughput technologies, such as microarray and miRNA-seq. Through mining of published studies with high-throughput experiment information, the database of DEMs in human cancers (dbDEMC) was constructed with the aim of providing a systematic resource for the storage and query of the DEMs. Here we report an update of the dbDEMC to version 3.0, which contains two-fold more data entries than the second version and now includes also data from mice and rats. The dbDEMC 3.0 contains 3268 unique DEMs in 40 different cancer types. The current datasets for differential expression analysis have expanded to 9 generalized categories. Moreover, the current release integrates functional annotations of DEMs obtained by using experimentally validated targets. The annotations can be of great benefit to the intensive analysis of the roles of DEMs in cancer. In summary, dbDEMC 3.0 provides a valuable resource for characterizing molecular functions and regulatory mechanisms of DEMs in human cancers. The dbDEMC 3.0 is freely accessible at https://www.biosino.org/dbDEMC.

Computational Identification of Preneoplastic Cells Displaying High Stemness and Risk of Cancer Progression.

Evidence points toward the differentiation state of cells as a marker of cancer risk and progression. Measuring the differentiation state of single cells in a preneoplastic population could thus enable novel strategies for early detection and risk prediction. Recent maps of somatic mutagenesis in normal tissues from young healthy individuals have revealed cancer driver mutations, indicating that these do not correlate well with differentiation state and that other molecular events also contribute to cancer development. We hypothesized that the differentiation state of single cells can be measured by estimating the regulatory activity of the transcription factors (TF) that control differentiation within that cell lineage. To this end, we present a novel computational method called CancerStemID that estimates a stemness index of cells from single-cell RNA sequencing data. CancerStemID is validated in two human esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) cohorts, demonstrating how it can identify undifferentiated preneoplastic cells whose transcriptomic state is overrepresented in invasive cancer. Spatial transcriptomics and whole-genome bisulfite sequencing demonstrated that differentiation activity of tissue-specific TFs was decreased in cancer cells compared with the basal cell-of-origin layer and established that differentiation state correlated with differential DNA methylation at the promoters of these TFs, independently of underlying NOTCH1 and TP53 mutations. The findings were replicated in a mouse model of ESCC development, and the broad applicability of CancerStemID to other cancer-types was demonstrated. In summary, these data support an epigenetic stem-cell model of oncogenesis and highlight a novel computational strategy to identify stem-like preneoplastic cells that undergo positive selection. SIGNIFICANCE: This study develops a computational strategy to dissect the heterogeneity of differentiation states within a preneoplastic cell population, allowing identification of stem-like cells that may drive cancer progression.

Making sense of the ageing methylome.

Over time, the human DNA methylation landscape accrues substantial damage, which has been associated with a broad range of age-related diseases, including cardiovascular disease and cancer. Various age-related DNA methylation changes have been described, including at the level of individual CpGs, such as differential and variable methylation, and at the level of the whole methylome, including entropy and correlation networks. Here, we review these changes in the ageing methylome as well as the statistical tools that can be used to quantify them. We detail the evidence linking DNA methylation to ageing phenotypes and the longevity strategies aimed at altering both DNA methylation patterns and machinery to extend healthspan and lifespan. Lastly, we discuss theories on the mechanistic causes of epigenetic ageing.

A pan-tissue DNA methylation atlas enables in silico decomposition of human tissue methylomes at cell-type resolution.

Bulk-tissue DNA methylomes represent an average over many different cell types, hampering our understanding of cell-type-specific contributions to disease development. As single-cell methylomics is not scalable to large cohorts of individuals, cost-effective computational solutions are needed, yet current methods are limited to tissues such as blood. Here we leverage the high-resolution nature of tissue-specific single-cell RNA-sequencing datasets to construct a DNA methylation atlas defined for 13 solid tissue types and 40 cell types. We comprehensively validate this atlas in independent bulk and single-nucleus DNA methylation datasets. We demonstrate that it correctly predicts the cell of origin of diverse cancer types and discovers new prognostic associations in olfactory neuroblastoma and stage 2 melanoma. In brain, the atlas predicts a neuronal origin for schizophrenia, with neuron-specific differential DNA methylation enriched for corresponding genome-wide association study risk loci. In summary, the DNA methylation atlas enables the decomposition of 13 different human tissue types at a high cellular resolution, paving the way for an improved interpretation of epigenetic data.

Cell-type heterogeneity: Why we should adjust for it in epigenome and biomarker studies.

Most studies aiming to identify epigenetic biomarkers do so from complex tissues that are composed of many different cell-types. By definition, these cell-types vary substantially in terms of their epigenetic profiles. This cell-type specific variation among healthy cells is completely independent of the variation associated with disease, yet it dominates the epigenetic variability landscape. While cell-type composition of tissues can change in disease and this may provide accurate and reproducible biomarkers, not adjusting for the underlying cell-type heterogeneity may seriously limit the sensitivity and precision to detect disease-relevant biomarkers or hamper our understanding of such biomarkers. Given that computational and experimental tools for tackling cell-type heterogeneity are available, we here stress that future epigenetic biomarker studies should aim to provide estimates of underlying cell-type fractions for all samples in the study, and to identify biomarkers before and after adjustment for cell-type heterogeneity, in order to obtain a more complete and unbiased picture of the biomarker-landscape. This is critical, not only to improve reproducibility and for the eventual clinical application of such biomarkers, but importantly, to also improve our molecular understanding of disease itself.

Novel epigenetic network biomarkers for early detection of esophageal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Early detection of esophageal cancer is critical to improve survival. Whilst studies have identified biomarkers, their interpretation and validity is often confounded by cell-type heterogeneity. RESULTS: Here we applied systems-epigenomic and cell-type deconvolution algorithms to a discovery set encompassing RNA-Seq and DNA methylation data from esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) patients and matched normal-adjacent tissue, in order to identify robust biomarkers, free from the confounding effect posed by cell-type heterogeneity. We identify 12 gene-modules that are epigenetically deregulated in EAC, and are able to validate all 12 modules in 4 independent EAC cohorts. We demonstrate that the epigenetic deregulation is present in the epithelial compartment of EAC-tissue. Using single-cell RNA-Seq data we show that one of these modules, a proto-cadherin module centered around CTNND2, is inactivated in Barrett's Esophagus, a precursor lesion to EAC. By measuring DNA methylation in saliva from EAC cases and controls, we identify a chemokine module centered around CCL20, whose methylation patterns in saliva correlate with EAC status. CONCLUSIONS: Given our observations that a CCL20 chemokine network is overactivated in EAC tissue and saliva from EAC patients, and that in independent studies CCL20 has been found to be overactivated in EAC tissue infected with the bacterium F. nucleatum, a bacterium that normally inhabits the oral cavity, our results highlight the possibility of using DNAm measurements in saliva as a proxy for changes occurring in the esophageal epithelium. Both the CTNND2/CCL20 modules represent novel promising network biomarkers for EAC that merit further investigation.