RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The burden of chronic liver disease (CLD) deaths attributable to the hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) remains unknown. Further research is required to elucidate the extent of this burden in the eventual elimination of these diseases. METHODS: Data on liver cancer, cirrhosis, and other CLD among 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2019 was extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) published in 2019. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the temporal trend and predict the disease burden by 2030. RESULTS: The number of HCV-related CLD deaths surpassed that of CLD deaths caused by HBV in 2019 (536833 deaths versus 523003 deaths) and is expected to be maintained until 2030 (689124 deaths versus 628824 deaths). East Asia had the highest burden of chronic HBV and HCV infections during the study period. In 2019, the largest age-standardized death rates (ASDR) of CLD deaths caused by HBV and HCV were mainly observed in Western Sub-Saharan Africa (18.75%) and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa (16.42%), respectively. South Asia and East Asia are predicted to have the highest number of CLD deaths related to HCV and HBV by 2030. Eastern Europe and South Asia show the largest expected increase in disease burden caused by HCV or HBV between 2019 and 2030. No GBD region is projected to achieve the WHO target of a 65% reduction in mortality from chronic HBV and HCV infections by 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Although the mortality of CLD caused by HBV and HCV decreased in the last three decades (from 1990 to 2019), the number of deaths will continue to increase until 2030. Therefore, governments and international organizations need to strengthen the effectiveness of vaccines, screening, and treatment, especially in potential emerging hotspot regions.
RESUMEN
Background: The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 is more highly infectious and transmissible than prior variants of concern. It was unclear which factors might have contributed to the alteration of COVID-19 cases and deaths during the Delta and Omicron variant periods. This study aimed to compare the COVID-19 average weekly infection fatality rate (AWIFR), investigate factors associated with COVID-19 AWIFR, and explore the factors linked to the increase in COVID-19 AWIFR between two periods of Delta and Omicron variants. Materials and methods: An ecological study has been conducted among 110 countries over the first 12 weeks during two periods of Delta and Omicron variant dominance using open publicly available datasets. Our analysis included 102 countries in the Delta period and 107 countries in the Omicron period. Linear mixed-effects models and linear regression models were used to explore factors associated with the variation of AWIFR over Delta and Omicron periods. Findings: During the Delta period, the lower AWIFR was witnessed in countries with better government effectiveness index [ß = -0.762, 95% CI (-1.238)-(-0.287)] and higher proportion of the people fully vaccinated [ß = -0.385, 95% CI (-0.629)-(-0.141)]. In contrast, a higher burden of cardiovascular diseases was positively associated with AWIFR (ß = 0.517, 95% CI 0.102-0.932). Over the Omicron period, while years lived with disability (YLD) caused by metabolism disorders (ß = 0.843, 95% CI 0.486-1.2), the proportion of the population aged older than 65 years (ß = 0.737, 95% CI 0.237-1.238) was positively associated with poorer AWIFR, and the high proportion of the population vaccinated with a booster dose [ß = -0.321, 95% CI (-0.624)-(-0.018)] was linked with the better outcome. Over two periods of Delta and Omicron, the increase in government effectiveness index was associated with a decrease in AWIFR [ß = -0.438, 95% CI (-0.750)-(-0.126)]; whereas, higher death rates caused by diabetes and kidney (ß = 0.472, 95% CI 0.089-0.855) and percentage of population aged older than 65 years (ß = 0.407, 95% CI 0.013-0.802) were associated with a significant increase in AWIFR. Conclusion: The COVID-19 infection fatality rates were strongly linked with the coverage of vaccination rate, effectiveness of government, and health burden related to chronic diseases. Therefore, proper policies for the improvement of vaccination coverage and support of vulnerable groups could substantially mitigate the burden of COVID-19.
