The anthropogenic imprint on temperate and boreal forest demography and carbon turnover.

Aim: The sweeping transformation of the biosphere by humans over the last millennia leaves only limited windows into its natural state. Much of the forests that dominated temperate and southern boreal regions have been lost and those that remain typically bear a strong imprint of forestry activities and past land-use change, which have changed forest age structure and composition. Here, we ask how would the dynamics, structure and function of temperate and boreal forests differ in the absence of forestry and the legacies of land-use change? Location: Global. Time Period: 2001-2014, integrating over the legacy of disturbance events from 1875 to 2014. Major Taxa Studied: Trees. Methods: We constructed an empirical model of natural disturbance probability as a function of community traits and climate, based on observed disturbance rate and form across 77 protected forest landscapes distributed across three continents. Coupling this within a dynamic vegetation model simulating forest composition and structure, we generated estimates of stand-replacing disturbance return intervals in the absence of forestry for northern hemisphere temperate and boreal forests. We then applied this model to calculate forest stand age structure and carbon turnover rates. Results: Comparison with observed disturbance rates revealed human activities to have almost halved the median return interval of stand-replacing disturbances across temperate forest, with more moderate changes in the boreal region. The resulting forests are typically much younger, especially in northern Europe and south-eastern North America, resulting in a 32% reduction in vegetation carbon turnover time across temperate forests and a 7% reduction for boreal forests. Conclusions: The current northern hemisphere temperate forest age structure is dramatically out of equilibrium with its natural disturbance regimes. Shifts towards more nature-based approaches to forest policy and management should more explicitly consider the current disturbance surplus, as it substantially impacts carbon dynamics and litter (including deadwood) stocks.

Forest demography and biomass accumulation rates are associated with transient mean tree size vs. density scaling relations.

Linking individual and stand-level dynamics during forest development reveals a scaling relationship between mean tree size and tree density in forest stands, which integrates forest structure and function. However, the nature of this so-called scaling law and its variation across broad spatial scales remain unquantified, and its linkage with forest demographic processes and carbon dynamics remains elusive. In this study, we develop a theoretical framework and compile a broad-scale dataset of long-term sample forest stands (n = 1,433) from largely undisturbed forests to examine the association of temporal mean tree size vs. density scaling trajectories (slopes) with biomass accumulation rates and the sensitivity of scaling slopes to environmental and demographic drivers. The results empirically demonstrate a large variation of scaling slopes, ranging from -4 to -0.2, across forest stands in tropical, temperate, and boreal forest biomes. Steeper scaling slopes are associated with higher rates of biomass accumulation, resulting from a lower offset of forest growth by biomass loss from mortality. In North America, scaling slopes are positively correlated with forest stand age and rainfall seasonality, thus suggesting a higher rate of biomass accumulation in younger forests with lower rainfall seasonality. These results demonstrate the strong association of the transient mean tree size vs. density scaling trajectories with forest demography and biomass accumulation rates, thus highlighting the potential of leveraging forest structure properties to predict forest demography, carbon fluxes, and dynamics at broad spatial scales.

Effect of protective coating agents on microleakage and flexural strength of glass ionomer cement and zirconomer. an in vitro study.

PURPOSE: The objective of this study was to assess the microleakage and flexural strength of glass ionomer cement (GIC) and modified GIC (Zirconomer) when coated with protective coating agents such as COAT-IT and G-COAT plus. METHODS: Sixty tooth specimens were grouped into two groups based on the type of restorations (GIC (n = 30) and Zirconomer (n = 30)). The samples were further divided into three subgroups (n = 10) based on the protective coating agent (Petroleum jelly, G-COAT Plus, or COAT IT) applied. This study evaluated the microleakage at the occlusal and cervical margins of class V restoration after being subjected to dye penetration and sectioning. Each specimen was viewed under a 40 × microscope and was given scores based on the depth of dye penetration. They were statistically analyzed using the Kruskal-Wallis test and compared within the groups using the Mann- Whitney Test. In addition, flexural strength was assessed using standardized cuboid (25 × 2 × 2 mm) specimens of restorative materials with and without protective coating agents. The mean flexural strength data of all the subgroups were statistically evaluated using a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and compared within the subgroups using the student t test. RESULTS: A statistically significant difference was found when occlusal margin microleakage scores were evaluated with G-COAT Plus demonstrating the lowest occlusal margin microleakage when applied over GIC restoration. The increasing order of occlusal margin microleakage scores is as follows: GIC with G-COAT Plus, Zirconomer with COAT-IT, GIC with COAT-IT, GIC, Zirconomer with G-COAT Plus, and Zirconomer. However, the cervical margin microleakage scores revealed no significant difference. While flexural strength was found to be highest for the GIC group coated with G-COAT Plus, it was observed that there was a significant improvement in the flexural strength of both GIC and Zirconomer when coated with either of the protective coating agents. CONCLUSION: Within the limitations of this in vitro study, it was observed that the application of protective coating agents can significantly reduce the potential microleakage and improve the flexural strength of the restorative material especially when zirconia-reinforced GIC is the restorative material.

A Method for Quantification of Stretch Reflex Excitability During Ballistic Reaching.

Stretch reflexes are crucial for performing accurate movements and providing rapid corrections for unpredictable perturbations. Stretch reflexes are modulated by supraspinal structures via corticofugal pathways. Neural activity in these structures is difficult to observe directly, but the characterization of reflex excitability during volitional movement can be used to study how these structures modulate reflexes and how neurological injuries impact this control, such as in spasticity after stroke. We have developed a novel protocol to quantify stretch reflex excitability during ballistic reaching. This novel method was implemented using a custom haptic device (NACT-3D) capable of applying high-velocity (270 °/s) joint perturbations in the plane of the arm while participants performed 3D reaching tasks in a large workspace. We assessed the protocol on four participants with chronic hemiparetic stroke and two control participants. Participants reached ballistically from a near to a far target, with elbow extension perturbations applied in random catch trials. Perturbations were applied before movement, during the early phase of movement, or near peak movement velocity. Preliminary results show that stretch reflexes were elicited in the stroke group in the biceps muscle during reaching, as measured by electromyographic (EMG) activity both before (pre-motion phase) and during (early motion phase) movement. Reflexive EMG was also seen in the anterior deltoid and pectoralis major in the pre-motion phase. In the control group, no reflexive EMG was seen, as expected. This newly developed methodology allows the study of stretch reflex modulation in new ways by combining multijoint movements with haptic environments and high-velocity perturbations.

Schema therapy for violent PD offenders: a randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Violent criminal offenders with personality disorders (PD's) can cause immense harm, but are often deemed untreatable. This study aimed to conduct a randomized clinical trial to test the effectiveness of long-term psychotherapy for rehabilitating offenders with PDs. METHODS: We compared schema therapy (ST), an evidence-based psychotherapy for PDs, to treatment-as-usual (TAU) at eight high-security forensic hospitals in the Netherlands. Patients in both conditions received multiple treatment modalities and differed only in the individual, study-specific therapy they received. One-hundred-three male offenders with antisocial, narcissistic, borderline, or paranoid PDs, or Cluster B PD-not-otherwise-specified, were assigned to 3 years of ST or TAU and assessed every 6 months. Primary outcomes were rehabilitation, involving gradual reintegration into the community, and PD symptoms. RESULTS: Patients in both conditions showed moderate to large improvements in outcomes. ST was superior to TAU on both primary outcomes - rehabilitation (i.e. attaining supervised and unsupervised leave) and PD symptoms - and six of nine secondary outcomes, with small to moderate advantages over TAU. ST patients moved more rapidly through rehabilitation (supervised leave, treatment*time: F(5308) = 9.40, p < 0.001; unsupervised leave, treatment*time: F(5472) = 3.45, p = 0.004), and showed faster improvements on PD scales (treatment*time: t(1387) = -2.85, p = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: These findings contradict pessimistic views on the treatability of violent offenders with PDs, and support the effectiveness of long-term psychotherapy for rehabilitating these patients, facilitating their re-entry into the community.

A climate risk analysis of Earth's forests in the 21st century.

Earth's forests harbor extensive biodiversity and are currently a major carbon sink. Forest conservation and restoration can help mitigate climate change; however, climate change could fundamentally imperil forests in many regions and undermine their ability to provide such mitigation. The extent of climate risks facing forests has not been synthesized globally nor have different approaches to quantifying forest climate risks been systematically compared. We combine outputs from multiple mechanistic and empirical approaches to modeling carbon, biodiversity, and disturbance risks to conduct a synthetic climate risk analysis for Earth's forests in the 21st century. Despite large uncertainty in most regions we find that some forests are consistently at higher risk, including southern boreal forests and those in western North America and parts of the Amazon.

Changes in orthopaedic operating theatre practice, monitored using settle plates.

INTRODUCTION: The importance of ultraclean air in reducing deep infection was studied by Charnley who showed that the rate decreased as the airborne bacterial load was reduced. The effectiveness was shown in a large Medical Research Council (MRC) trial, but registry data have not shown a consistent benefit. Because we treat patients with rheumatoid arthritis, we decided to look at our theatre air quality. METHODS: In phase 1 we monitored air quality using settle plates, exposed for one hour after the incision, on the instrument trolleys in a joint replacement theatre. In phase 1 the scrub person did not wear a body exhaust system. In phase 2 all three staff used a body exhaust system, and we played close attention to the orientation and position of the surgical lights and trolleys. RESULTS: In phase 1 we grew 0.24 colonies/plate/hour in the ultraclean zone, which is comparable to the Charnley trial findings. In the second phase we grew 0.03 colonies/plate/hour (p<0.001). When plates were placed on the trolleys in controlled positions there was a tendency for the colonies to appear on the corners of the trolleys at the edge of the clean zone (NS). DISCUSSION: The study showed that in phase 1 colony counts comparable to the original Charnley studies were achieved. Colony counts of 0.03 colonies/plate/hour can be achieved in contemporary practice, with all team members using body exhausts.

Climate Change Risks to Global Forest Health: Emergence of Unexpected Events of Elevated Tree Mortality Worldwide.

Recent observations of elevated tree mortality following climate extremes, like heat and drought, raise concerns about climate change risks to global forest health. We currently lack both sufficient data and understanding to identify whether these observations represent a global trend toward increasing tree mortality. Here, we document events of sudden and unexpected elevated tree mortality following heat and drought events in ecosystems that previously were considered tolerant or not at risk of exposure. These events underscore the fact that climate change may affect forests with unexpected force in the future. We use the events as examples to highlight current difficulties and challenges for realistically predicting such tree mortality events and the uncertainties about future forest condition. Advances in remote sensing technology and greater availably of high-resolution data, from both field assessments and satellites, are needed to improve both understanding and prediction of forest responses to future climate change.

Agricultural breadbaskets shift poleward given adaptive farmer behavior under climate change.

Modern food production is spatially concentrated in global "breadbaskets." A major unresolved question is whether these peak production regions will shift poleward as the climate warms, allowing some recovery of potential climate-related losses. While agricultural impacts studies to date have focused on currently cultivated land, the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment allows us to assess changes in both yields and the location of peak productivity regions under warming. We examine crop responses under projected end of century warming using seven process-based models simulating five major crops (maize, rice, soybeans, and spring and winter wheat) with a variety of adaptation strategies. We find that in no-adaptation cases, when planting date and cultivar choices are held fixed, regions of peak production remain stationary and yield losses can be severe, since growing seasons contract strongly with warming. When adaptations in management practices are allowed (cultivars that retain growing season length under warming and modified planting dates), peak productivity zones shift poleward and yield losses are largely recovered. While most growing-zone shifts are ultimately limited by geography, breadbaskets studied here move poleward over 600 km on average by end of the century under RCP 8.5. These results suggest that agricultural impacts assessments can be strongly biased if restricted in spatial area or in the scope of adaptive behavior considered. Accurate evaluation of food security under climate change requires global modeling and careful treatment of adaptation strategies.

Occurrence of crop pests and diseases has largely increased in China since 1970.

Crop pests and diseases (CPDs) are emerging threats to global food security, but trends in the occurrence of pests and diseases remain largely unknown due to the lack of observations for major crop producers. Here, on the basis of a unique historical dataset with more than 5,500 statistical records, we found an increased occurrence of CPDs in every province of China, with the national average rate of CPD occurrence increasing by a factor of four (from 53% to 218%) during 1970-2016. Historical climate change is responsible for more than one-fifth of the observed increment of CPD occurrence (22% ± 17%), ranging from 2% to 79% in different provinces. Among the climatic factors considered, warmer nighttime temperatures contribute most to the increasing occurrence of CPDs (11% ± 9%). Projections of future CPDs show that at the end of this century, climate change will lead to an increase in CPD occurrence by 243% ± 110% under a low-emissions scenario (SSP126) and 460% ± 213% under a high-emissions scenario (SSP585), with the magnitude largely dependent on the impacts of warmer nighttime temperatures and decreasing frost days. This observation-based evidence highlights the urgent need to accurately account for the increasing risk of CPDs in mitigating the impacts of climate change on food production.

Understanding the Copassivation Effect of Cl and Se for CdTe Grain Boundaries.

Chlorine passivation treatment of cadmium telluride (CdTe) solar cells improves device performance by assisting electron-hole carrier separation at CdTe grain boundaries. Further improvement in device efficiency is observed after alloying the CdTe absorber layer with selenium. High-resolution secondary ion mass spectroscopy (NanoSIMS) imaging has been used to determine the distribution of selenium and chlorine at the CdTe grain boundaries in a selenium-graded CdTe device. Atomistic modeling based on density functional theory (DFT-1/2) further reveals that the presence of selenium and chlorine at an exemplar (110)/(100) CdTe grain boundary passivates critical acceptor defects and leads to n-type inversion at the grain boundary. The defect state analysis provides an explanation for the band-bending effects observed in the energy band alignment results, thereby elucidating mechanisms for high efficiencies observed in Se-alloyed and Cl-passivated CdTe solar cells.

Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties.

Climate change affects global agricultural production and threatens food security. Faster phenological development of crops due to climate warming is one of the main drivers for potential future yield reductions. To counter the effect of faster maturity, adapted varieties would require more heat units to regain the previous growing period length. In this study, we investigate the effects of variety adaptation on global caloric production under four different future climate change scenarios for maize, rice, soybean, and wheat. Thereby, we empirically identify areas that could require new varieties and areas where variety adaptation could be achieved by shifting existing varieties into new regions. The study uses an ensemble of seven global gridded crop models and five CMIP6 climate models. We found that 39% (SSP5-8.5) of global cropland could require new crop varieties to avoid yield loss from climate change by the end of the century. At low levels of warming (SSP1-2.6), 85% of currently cultivated land can draw from existing varieties to shift within an agro-ecological zone for adaptation. The assumptions on available varieties for adaptation have major impacts on the effectiveness of variety adaptation, which could more than half in SSP5-8.5. The results highlight that region-specific breeding efforts are required to allow for a successful adaptation to climate change.

Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield.

Irrigation is the largest sector of human water use and an important option for increasing crop production and reducing drought impacts. However, the potential for irrigation to contribute to global crop yields remains uncertain. Here, we quantify this contribution for wheat and maize at global scale by developing a Bayesian framework integrating empirical estimates and gridded global crop models on new maps of the relative difference between attainable rainfed and irrigated yield (ΔY). At global scale, ΔY is 34 ± 9% for wheat and 22 ± 13% for maize, with large spatial differences driven more by patterns of precipitation than that of evaporative demand. Comparing irrigation demands with renewable water supply, we find 30-47% of contemporary rainfed agriculture of wheat and maize cannot achieve yield gap closure utilizing current river discharge, unless more water diversion projects are set in place, putting into question the potential of irrigation to mitigate climate change impacts.

Increasing climatic sensitivity of global grassland vegetation biomass and species diversity correlates with water availability.

Grasslands are key repositories of biodiversity and carbon storage and are heavily impacted by effects of global warming and changes in precipitation regimes. Patterns of grassland dynamics associated with variability in future climate conditions across spatiotemporal scales are yet to be adequately quantified. Here, we performed a global meta-analysis of year and growing season sensitivities of vegetation aboveground biomass (AGB), aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), and species richness (SR) and diversity (Shannon index, H) to experimental climate warming and precipitation shifts. All four variables were sensitive to climate change. Their sensitivities to shifts in precipitation were correlated with local background water availability, such as mean annual precipitation (MAP) and aridity, and AGB and ANPP sensitivities were greater in dry habitats than in nonwater-limited habitats. There was no effect of duration of experiment (short vs long term) on sensitivities. Temporal trends in ANPP and SR sensitivity depended on local water availability; ANPP sensitivity to warming increased over time and SR sensitivity to irrigation decreased over time. Our results provide a global overview of the sensitivities of grassland function and diversity to climate change that will improve the understanding of ecological responses across spatiotemporal scales and inform policies for conservation in dry climates.

Large-scale variations in the dynamics of Amazon forest canopy gaps from airborne lidar data and opportunities for tree mortality estimates.

We report large-scale estimates of Amazonian gap dynamics using a novel approach with large datasets of airborne light detection and ranging (lidar), including five multi-temporal and 610 single-date lidar datasets. Specifically, we (1) compared the fixed height and relative height methods for gap delineation and established a relationship between static and dynamic gaps (newly created gaps); (2) explored potential environmental/climate drivers explaining gap occurrence using generalized linear models; and (3) cross-related our findings to mortality estimates from 181 field plots. Our findings suggest that static gaps are significantly correlated to dynamic gaps and can inform about structural changes in the forest canopy. Moreover, the relative height outperformed the fixed height method for gap delineation. Well-defined and consistent spatial patterns of dynamic gaps were found over the Amazon, while also revealing the dynamics of areas never sampled in the field. The predominant pattern indicates 20-35% higher gap dynamics at the west and southeast than at the central-east and north. These estimates were notably consistent with field mortality patterns, but they showed 60% lower magnitude likely due to the predominant detection of the broken/uprooted mode of death. While topographic predictors did not explain gap occurrence, the water deficit, soil fertility, forest flooding and degradation were key drivers of gap variability at the regional scale. These findings highlight the importance of lidar in providing opportunities for large-scale gap dynamics and tree mortality monitoring over the Amazon.