Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Geographic variation in black-white differences in end-of-life care for patients with ESRD.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Patterns of end-of-life care among patients with ESRD differ by race. Whether the magnitude of racial differences in end-of-life care varies across regions is not known. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: This observational cohort study used data from the US Renal Data System and regional health care spending patterns from the Dartmouth Atlas of Healthcare. The cohort included 101,331 black and white patients 18 years and older who initiated chronic dialysis or received a kidney transplant between June 1, 2005, and September 31, 2008, and died before October 1, 2009. Black-white differences in the odds of in-hospital death, dialysis discontinuation, and hospice referral by quintile of end-of-life expenditure index (EOL-EI) were examined. RESULTS: In adjusted analyses, the odds ratios for dialysis discontinuation for black versus white patients ranged from 0.47 (95% confidence interval=0.43 to 0.51) in the highest quintile of EOL-EI to 0.63 (95% confidence interval=0.54 to 0.74) in the lowest quintile (P for interaction<0.001). Hospice referral ranged from 0.55 (95% confidence interval=0.50 to 0.60) in the highest quintile of EOL-EI to 0.82 (95% confidence interval=0.69 to 0.96) in the lowest quintile (P for interaction<0.001). The association of race with in-hospital death also differed in magnitude across quintiles of EOL-EI, ranging from 1.21 (95% confidence interval=1.08 to 1.35) in the highest quintile of EOL-EI to 1.47 (95% confidence interval=1.27 to 1.71) in the second quintile (P for interaction<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: There are pronounced black-white differences in patterns of hospice referral and dialysis discontinuation among patients with ESRD that vary substantially across regions of the United States.

Renal replacement therapy in congestive heart failure requiring left ventricular assist device augmentation.

"Cardiorenal syndrome" is a term used to describe a dys-regulation of the heart affecting the kidneys, or vice versa, in an acute or chronic manner (1,2). Renal impairment can range from reversible ischemic damage to renal failure requiring short- or long-term renal replacement therapy (2). Patients who require mechanical circulatory support, such as a left ventricular assist device (LVAD), as definitive treatment for congestive heart failure or as a bridge to cardiac transplantation pose a unique challenge with respect to receiving dialysis, because they experience higher rates of morbidity and mortality from infection in the post-LVAD period (3-7). Acute dialysis access can pose an increased infection risk. In this article, we present a patient who required renal replacement therapy and a LVAD for management of acute-on-chronic cardiorenal syndrome while awaiting heart transplantation. A literature review to determine whether peritoneal dialysis or hemodialysis is superior for patients with profound hemodynamic dysfunction and the need to minimize risk of infection did not offer clear guidance about which modality is superior in patients with advanced congestive heart failure. However, there is clear evidence of the superiority of peritoneal dialysis in reducing the risk of systemic infection secondary to acute dialysis access. Given the high risk of LVAD infection, we therefore conclude that, to decrease mortality secondary to systemic infection, peritoneal dialysis should strongly be considered in patients who require renal replacement therapy before or after LVAD placement.

Allograft inflammatory factor-1 expression correlates with cardiac rejection and development of cardiac allograft vasculopathy.

BACKGROUND: Standard morphological features of endomyocardial biopsy specimens do not necessarily correlate with the efficacy of immunotherapy or development of cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV). We hypothesized that expression of allograft inflammatory factor-1 (AIF-1), a cytokine-inducible, calcium-binding protein associated with vascular smooth muscle cell proliferation, would be associated with allograft rejection and development of CAV. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 157 endomyocardial biopsy specimens from 26 patients with heart transplants were examined for expression of AIF-1 mRNA by semiquantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. A significant relation was found between the International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation rejection grade and expression of AIF-1 (P<0.001). The calculated odds ratio indicates that a biopsy has 2.5 times the chance of AIF-1 expression per grade of rejection. The relative concentrations of AIF-1 and GAPDH mRNA were calculated and the resulting ratios indicated that the amount of AIF-1 mRNA expression is relative to the rejection grade (P<0.02). In grade 1 biopsy specimens, AIF-1 was localized to infiltrating immune cells. In grade 3 biopsy specimens, AIF-1 was observed in immune cells and myocytes. AIF-1 is expressed in vascular and immune cells in coronary arteries with CAV, and persistent expression of AIF-1 in the allograft correlates with development of CAV (P<0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Expression of AIF-1 in cardiac allografts correlates with rejection, and the amount of AIF-1 expressed correlates with the severity of rejection. AIF-1 is expressed in coronary arteries with CAV, and persistent expression of AIF-1 in the cardiac allograft is associated with development of CAV.