A Randomised -Controlled Phase 2 trial of Molnupiravir in Unvaccinated and Vaccinated Individuals with Early SARS-CoV-2

BackgroundMolnupiravir was licensed for treating high-risk patients with COVID-19 based on data from unvaccinated adults. AGILE CST-2 (NCT04746183) Phase II reports safety and virological efficacy of molnupiravir in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. MethodsAdult out-patients with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection within five days of symptom onset were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive molnupiravir (800mg twice daily for five days) or placebo. The primary outcome was time to swab PCR-negativity, compared using a Bayesian model for estimating the probability of a superior virological response (Hazard Ratio>1) for molnupiravir over placebo. Secondary outcomes included change in viral titre at day 5, safety and tolerability, clinical progression and patient reported outcome measures. We analysed outcomes after the last participant reached day 29. FindingsOf 180 participants randomised (90 molnupiravir, 90 placebo), 50% were vaccinated. Infections with SARS-CoV-2 variants Delta (40%), Alpha (21%), Omicron (21%) and EU1 (16%) were represented. The median time to negative-PCR was 8 versus 11 days for molnupiravir and placebo (HR=1{middle dot}30, 95% CrI 0{middle dot}92-1{middle dot}71, p=0{middle dot}07 by Logrank and p=0{middle dot}03 by Breslow-Gehan tests). Although small numbers precluded subgroup analysis, no obvious differences were observed between vaccinated and unvaccinated participants. Using a two-point prior the probability of molnupiravir being superior to placebo (HR>1) was 75{middle dot}4%, which was just below our defined threshold of 80% for establishing superiority. Using an uninformative continuous prior, the probability of HR>1 was 94{middle dot}7%. As an exploratory analysis, the change in viral titre on day 5 (end of treatment) was significantly greater with molnupiravir compared with placebo. A total of 4 participants reported severe adverse events (grade 3+), 3 of whom were in the placebo arm. InterpretationWe found molnupiravir to be well-tolerated, with evidence for high probability of antiviral efficacy in a population of vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals infected with a broad range of viral variants. FundingFunded by Ridgeback Biotherapeutics and UK National Institute for Health and Care Research infrastructure funding. The AGILE platform infrastructure is supported by the Medical Research Council (grant number MR/V028391/1) and the Wellcome Trust (grant number 221590/Z/20/Z).

Pharmacokinetics of β-d-N4-hydroxycytidine, the active metabolite of prodrug molnupiravir, in non-plasma compartments of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection

{beta}-d-N4-hydroxycytidine (NHC), the parent nucleoside of molnupiravir, a COVID-19 antiviral, was quantified at sites of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in twelve patients enrolled in AGILE CST-2 (NCT04746183). Saliva, nasal and tear concentrations were 3, 21 and 22% that of plasma. Saliva and nasal NHC concentrations were significantly correlated with plasma (p<0.0001).

Optimal dose and safety of molnupiravir in patients with early SARS-CoV-2: a phase 1, dose-escalating, randomised controlled study

BackgroundAGILE is a phase Ib/IIa platform for rapidly evaluating COVID-19 treatments. In this trial (NCT04746183) we evaluated the safety and optimal dose of molnupiravir in participants with early symptomatic infection. MethodsWe undertook a dose-escalating, open-label, randomised-controlled (standard-of-care) Bayesian adaptive phase I trial at the Royal Liverpool and Broadgreen Clinical Research Facility. Participants (adult outpatients with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection within 5 days of symptom onset) were randomised 2:1 in groups of 6 participants to 300mg, 600mg and 800mg doses of molnupiravir orally, twice daily for 5 days or control. A dose was judged unsafe if the probability of 30% or greater dose-limiting toxicity (the primary outcome) over controls was higher than 25%. Secondary outcomes included safety, clinical progression, pharmacokinetics and virologic responses. ResultsOf 103 volunteers screened, 18 participants were enrolled between 17 July and 30 October 2020. Molnupiravir was well tolerated at 400, 600 or 800mg doses with no serious or severe adverse events. Overall, 4 of 4 (100%), 4 of 4 (100%) and 1 of 4 (25%) of the participants receiving 300, 600 and 800mg molnupiravir respectively, and 5 of 6 (83%) controls, had at least one adverse event, all of which were mild ([≤]grade 2). The probability of [≥]30% excess toxicity over controls at 800mg was estimated at 0.9%. ConclusionMolnupiravir was safe and well tolerated; a dose of 800mg twice-daily for 5 days was recommended for Phase II evaluation.

Rapid development of COVID-19 rapid diagnostics for low resource settings: accelerating delivery through transparency, responsiveness, and open collaboration

Here we describe an open and transparent consortium for the rapid development of COVID-19 rapid diagnostics tests. We report diagnostic accuracy data on the Mologic manufactured IgG COVID-19 ELISA on known positive serum samples and on a panel of known negative respiratory and viral serum samples pre-December 2019. In January, Mologic, embarked on a product development pathway for COVID-19 diagnostics focusing on ELISA and rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), with anticipated funding from Wellcome Trust and DFID. 834 clinical samples from known COVID-19 patients and hospital negative controls were tested on Mologics IgG ELISA. The reported sensitivity on 270 clinical samples from 124 prospectively enrolled patients was 94% (95% CI: 89.60% - 96.81%) on day 10 or more post laboratory diagnosis, and 96% (95% CI: 84.85% - 99.46%) between 14-21 days post symptom onset. A specificity panel comprising 564 samples collected pre-December 2019 were tested to include most common respiratory pathogens, other types of coronavirus, and flaviviruses. Specificity in this panel was 97% (95% CI: 95.65% - 98.50%). This is the first in a series of Mologic products for COVID-19, which will be deployed for COVID-19 diagnosis, contact tracing and sero-epidemiological studies to estimate disease burden and transmission with a focus on ensuring access, affordability, and availability to low-resource settings.

Manifold modeling for brain population analysis.

This paper describes a method for building efficient representations of large sets of brain images. Our hypothesis is that the space spanned by a set of brain images can be captured, to a close approximation, by a low-dimensional, nonlinear manifold. This paper presents a method to learn such a low-dimensional manifold from a given data set. The manifold model is generative-brain images can be constructed from a relatively small set of parameters, and new brain images can be projected onto the manifold. This allows to quantify the geometric accuracy of the manifold approximation in terms of projection distance. The manifold coordinates induce a Euclidean coordinate system on the population data that can be used to perform statistical analysis of the population. We evaluate the proposed method on the OASIS and ADNI brain databases of head MR images in two ways. First, the geometric fit of the method is qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated. Second, the ability of the brain manifold model to explain clinical measures is analyzed by linear regression in the manifold coordinate space. The regression models show that the manifold model is a statistically significant descriptor of clinical parameters.