High end-of-treatment hepatitis B core-related antigen levels predict hepatitis flare after stopping nucleot(s)ide analogue therapy.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Accurate biomarkers to predict outcomes following discontinuation of nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) therapy are needed. We evaluated serum hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) level as a biomarker for predicting outcomes after NA discontinuation. METHODS: Patients with HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis B (CHB) without cirrhosis were enrolled in a prospective trial evaluating clinical outcomes until 96 weeks after NA discontinuation. End of treatment (EOT) and off-treatment levels of serum HBcrAg, HBsAg, HBV RNA and HBV DNA were used to predict key clinical outcomes including hepatitis flare (ALT ≥5 × ULN and HBV DNA > 2000 IU/mL). The SCALE-B score was calculated for the purposes of model validation. RESULTS: HBcrAg was tested amongst 65 participants. The median age was 54 years, 54% were male and 83% were Asian. HBcrAg was detectable in 86% patients. HBcrAg level ≥4 log U/mL at EOT was predictive of hepatitis flare [8/10 (80%) vs. 17/55 (31%), p = .001]. The presence of either HBcrAg ≥4 log U/mL or detectable HBV RNA at EOT predicted for both biochemical relapse and hepatitis flare. The SCALE-B model at EOT predicted for virological relapse, biochemical relapse, hepatitis flare and HBsAg loss in this cohort. An increase in the serum HBcrAg level off-treatment was also associated with hepatitis flare. No participant with EOT HBcrAg level ≥4 log U/mL achieved HBsAg loss. CONCLUSIONS: High levels of serum HBcrAg predict for hepatitis flare after stopping NA therapy and low likelihood of HBsAg loss at week 96. People with high levels of serum HBcrAg are not suitable candidates for NA discontinuation.

Same-visit hepatitis C testing and treatment to accelerate cure among people who inject drugs (the QuickStart Study): a cluster randomised cross-over trial protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Despite universal access to government-funded direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in 2016, the rate of hepatitis C treatment uptake in Australia has declined substantially. Most hepatitis C is related to injecting drug use; reducing the hepatitis C burden among people who inject drugs (PWID) is, therefore, paramount to reach hepatitis C elimination targets. Increasing DAA uptake by PWID is important for interrupting transmission and reducing incidence, as well as reducing morbidity and mortality and improving quality of life of PWID and meeting Australia's hepatitis C elimination targets. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A cluster randomised cross-over trial will be conducted with three intervention arms and a control arm. Arm A will receive rapid hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibody testing; arm B will receive rapid HCV antibody and rapid RNA testing; arm C will receive rapid HCV antibody testing and same-day treatment initiation for HCV antibody-positive participants; the control arm will receive standard of care. The primary outcomes will be (a) the proportion of participants with HCV commencing treatment and (b) the proportion of participants with HCV achieving cure. Analyses will be conducted on an intention-to-treat basis with mixed-effects logistic regression models. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has been approved by the Alfred Ethics Committee (number HREC/64731/Alfred-2020-217547). Each participant will provide written informed consent. Reportable adverse events will be reported to the reviewing ethics committee. The findings will be presented at scientific conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05016609. TRIAL PROGRESSION: The study commenced recruitment on 9 March 2022 and is expected to complete recruitment in December 2024.

Different Patterns of Care and Survival Outcomes in Transplant-Centre Managed Patients with Early-Stage HCC: Real-World Data from an Australian Multi-Centre Cohort Study.

The management of early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is complex, with multiple treatment strategies available. There is a paucity of literature regarding variations in the patterns of care and outcomes between transplant and non-transplant centres. We conducted this real-world multi-centre cohort study in two liver cancer referral centres with an integrated liver transplant program and an additional eight non-transplant HCC referral centres across Australia to identify variation in patterns of care and key survival outcomes. Patients with stage Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) 0/A HCC, first diagnosed between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2020, who were managed at a participating site, were included in the study. Patients were excluded if they had a history of prior HCC or if they received upfront liver transplantation. A total of 887 patients were included in the study, with 433 patients managed at a liver cancer centre with a transplant program (LTC) and 454 patients managed at a non-transplant centre (NTC). Management at an LTC did not significantly predict allocation to resection (adjusted OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.11, p = 0.148). However, in those not receiving resection, LTC and NTC patients were systematically managed differently, with LTC patients five times less likely to receive upfront ablation than NTC patients (adjusted OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.28, p < 0.001), even after adjusting for tumour burden, as well as for age, gender, liver disease aetiology, liver disease severity, and medical comorbidities. LTCs exhibited significantly higher proportions of patients undergoing TACE for every tumour burden category, including those with a single tumour measuring 2 cm or less (p < 0.001). Using multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis, management at a transplant centre was associated with reduced all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.51 to 0.98, p = 0.036), and competing-risk regression analysis, considering liver transplant as a competing event, demonstrated a similar reduction in risk (adjusted HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.99, p = 0.041), suggesting that the reduced risk of death is not fully explained by higher rates of transplantation. Our study highlights systematic differences in HCC care between large volume liver transplant centres and other sites, which has not previously been well-described. Further work is needed to better define the reasons for differences in treatment allocation and to aim to minimise unwarranted treatment variation to maximise patient outcomes across Australia.

Surveillance MRI is associated with improved survival in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis.

BACKGROUND: The benefits of regular surveillance imaging for cholangiocarcinoma in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) are unclear. Hence, we aimed to evaluate the impact of regular magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) on outcomes of patients with PSC in Australia, where the practice of MRCP surveillance is variable. METHODS: The relationship between MRCP surveillance and survival outcomes was assessed in a multicenter, retrospective cohort of patients with PSC from 9 tertiary liver centers in Australia. An inverse probability of treatment weighting approach was used to balance groups across potentially confounding covariates. RESULTS: A total of 298 patients with PSC with 2117 person-years of follow-up were included. Two hundred and twenty patients (73.8%) had undergone MRCP surveillance. Regular surveillance was associated with a 71% reduced risk of death on multivariate weighted Cox analysis (HR: 0.29, 95% CI: 0.14-0.59, p < 0.001) and increased likelihood of having earlier endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography from the date of PSC diagnosis in patients with a dominant stricture (p < 0.001). However, survival posthepatobiliary cancer diagnosis was not significantly different between both groups (p = 0.74). Patients who had surveillance of less than 1 scan a year (n = 41) had comparable survival (HR: 0.46, 95% CI 0.16-1.35, p = 0.16) compared to patients who had surveillance at least yearly (n = 172). CONCLUSIONS: In this multicenter cohort study that employed inverse probability of treatment weighting to minimize selection bias, regular MRCP was associated with improved overall survival in patients with PSC; however, there was no difference in survival after hepatobiliary cancer diagnosis. Further prospective studies are needed to confirm the benefits of regular MRCP and optimal imaging interval in patients with PSC.

Effectiveness and safety of glecaprevir/pibrentasvir for 8 weeks in the treatment of patients with acute hepatitis C: A single-arm retrospective study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: No direct-acting antiviral is currently approved for acute HCV infection, delaying treatment. We investigated the effectiveness and safety of 8-week glecaprevir/pibrentasvir (G/P) in patients with acute HCV infection. APPROACH AND RESULTS: This noninterventional, single-arm, retrospective chart review was designed to enroll adults/adolescents with acute HCV infection. Analyses were conducted on a full analysis set (FAS; all enrolled) and modified FAS (FAS excluding nonvirologic failures). The primary end point (modified FAS) was sustained virologic response at posttreatment week 12 (SVR12) with superiority to 92.6% threshold determined by historic chronic HCV G/P SVR12 rates. Secondary end points (FAS) included SVR12, on-treatment virologic failure, posttreatment relapse, and reinfection. Adverse events and safety laboratory values were assessed.Overall, 202 adults were enrolled; in the modified FAS, 150/151 (99.3%; 95% CI: 96.3-99.9) achieved SVR12, demonstrating superiority to efficacy threshold. In the FAS, the SVR12 rate was 74.3% and the on-treatment virologic failure rate was 0%. Relapse and reinfection rates after the final treatment visit (FAS) were 0.5% and 3%, respectively; 39 patients had missing SVR12 data. No on-treatment alanine aminotransferase elevations > 3 × upper limit of normal with total bilirubin > 2 × upper limit of normal were reported. All 53 patients with alanine aminotransferase Grade ≥ 2 at baseline improved to Grade 0/1 on treatment. No adverse eventss of hepatic decompensation/failure or leading to G/P discontinuation occurred. Two patients had serious adverse events unrelated to G/P. CONCLUSIONS: Eight-week G/P therapy was effective and well-tolerated in patients with acute HCV infection. Data support further investigation of G/P in acute HCV to shorten care cascades, reduce transmission, and support HCV elimination.

The cortical neurophysiological signature of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

The progressive loss of motor function characteristic of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is associated with widespread cortical pathology extending beyond primary motor regions. Increasing muscle weakness reflects a dynamic, variably compensated brain network disorder. In the quest for biomarkers to accelerate therapeutic assessment, the high temporal resolution of magnetoencephalography is uniquely able to non-invasively capture micro-magnetic fields generated by neuronal activity across the entire cortex simultaneously. This study examined task-free magnetoencephalography to characterize the cortical oscillatory signature of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis for having potential as a pharmacodynamic biomarker. Eight to ten minutes of magnetoencephalography in the task-free, eyes-open state was recorded in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (n = 36) and healthy age-matched controls (n = 51), followed by a structural MRI scan for co-registration. Extracted magnetoencephalography metrics from the delta, theta, alpha, beta, low-gamma, high-gamma frequency bands included oscillatory power (regional activity), 1/f exponent (complexity) and amplitude envelope correlation (connectivity). Groups were compared using a permutation-based general linear model with correction for multiple comparisons and confounders. To test whether the extracted metrics could predict disease severity, a random forest regression model was trained and evaluated using nested leave-one-out cross-validation. Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis was characterized by reduced sensorimotor beta band and increased high-gamma band power. Within the premotor cortex, increased disability was associated with a reduced 1/f exponent. Increased disability was more widely associated with increased global connectivity in the delta, theta and high-gamma bands. Intra-hemispherically, increased disability scores were particularly associated with increases in temporal connectivity and inter-hemispherically with increases in frontal and occipital connectivity. The random forest model achieved a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.24. The combined reduction in cortical sensorimotor beta and rise in gamma power is compatible with the established hypothesis of loss of inhibitory, GABAergic interneuronal circuits in pathogenesis. A lower 1/f exponent potentially reflects a more excitable cortex and a pathology unique to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis when considered with the findings published in other neurodegenerative disorders. Power and complexity changes corroborate with the results from paired-pulse transcranial magnetic stimulation. Increased magnetoencephalography connectivity in worsening disability is thought to represent compensatory responses to a failing motor system. Restoration of cortical beta and gamma band power has significant potential to be tested in an experimental medicine setting. Magnetoencephalography-based measures have potential as sensitive outcome measures of therapeutic benefit in drug trials and may have a wider diagnostic value with further study, including as predictive markers in asymptomatic carriers of disease-causing genetic variants.

Impact of an Automated Population-Level Cirrhosis Screening Program Using Common Pathology Tests on Rates of Cirrhosis Diagnosis and Linkage to Specialist Care (CAPRISE): Protocol for a Pilot Prospective Single-Arm Intervention Study.

BACKGROUND: People with compensated cirrhosis receive the greatest benefit from risk factor modification and prevention programs to reduce liver decompensation and improve early liver cancer detection. Blood-based liver fibrosis algorithms such as the Aspartate Transaminase-to-Platelet Ratio Index (APRI) and Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index are calculated using routinely ordered blood tests and are effective screening tests to exclude cirrhosis in people with chronic liver disease, triaging the need for further investigations to confirm cirrhosis and linkage to specialist care. OBJECTIVE: This pilot study aims to evaluate the impact of a population screening program for liver cirrhosis (CAPRISE [Cirrhosis Automated APRI and FIB-4 Screening Evaluation]), which uses automated APRI and FIB-4 calculation and reporting on routinely ordered blood tests, on monthly rates of referral for transient elastography, cirrhosis diagnosis, and linkage to specialist care. METHODS: We have partnered with a large pathology service in Victoria, Australia, to pilot a population-level liver cirrhosis screening package, which comprises (1) automated calculation and reporting of APRI and FIB-4 on routinely ordered blood tests; (2) provision of brief information about liver cirrhosis; and (3) a web link for transient elastography referral. APRI and FIB-4 will be prospectively calculated on all community-ordered pathology results in adults attending a single pathology service. This single-center, prospective, single-arm, pre-post study will compare the monthly rates of transient elastography (FibroScan) referral, liver cirrhosis diagnosis, and the proportion linked to specialist care in the 6 months after intervention to the 6 months prior to the intervention. RESULTS: As of January 2024, in the preintervention phase of this study, a total of 120,972 tests were performed by the laboratory. Of these tests, 78,947 (65.3%) tests were excluded, with the remaining 42,025 (34.7%) tests on 37,872 individuals meeting inclusion criteria with APRI and FIB-4 being able to be calculated. Of these 42,025 tests, 1.3% (n=531) had elevated APRI>1 occurring in 446 individuals, and 2.3% (n=985) had elevated FIB-4>2.67 occurring in 816 individuals. Linking these data with FibroScan referral and appointment attendance is ongoing and will continue during the intervention phase, which is expected to commence on February 1, 2024. CONCLUSIONS: We will determine the feasibility and effectiveness of automated APRI and FIB-4 reporting on the monthly rate of transient elastography referrals, liver cirrhosis diagnosis, and linkage to specialist care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12623000295640; https://tinyurl.com/58dv9ypp. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/56607.

Venous thromboembolism risk in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a hospital record-linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) can occur in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and pulmonary embolism causes death in a minority of cases. The benefits of preventing VTE must be weighed against the risks. An accurate estimate of the incidence of VTE in ALS is crucial to assessing this balance. METHODS: This retrospective record-linkage cohort study derived data from the Hospital Episode Statistics database, covering admissions to England's hospitals from 1 April 2003 to 31 December 2019 and included 21 163 patients with ALS and 17 425 337 controls. Follow-up began at index admission and ended at VTE admission, death or 2 years (whichever came sooner). Adjusted HRs (aHRs) for VTE were calculated, controlling for confounders. RESULTS: The incidence of VTE in the ALS cohort was 18.8/1000 person-years. The relative risk of VTE in ALS was significantly greater than in controls (aHR 2.7, 95% CI 2.4 to 3.0). The relative risk of VTE in patients with ALS under 65 years was five times higher than controls (aHR 5.34, 95% CI 4.6 to 6.2), and higher than that of patients over 65 years compared with controls (aHR 1.86, 95% CI 1.62 to 2.12). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with ALS are at a higher risk of developing VTE, but this is similar in magnitude to that reported in other chronic neurological conditions associated with immobility, such as multiple sclerosis, which do not routinely receive VTE prophylaxis. Those with ALS below the median age of symptom onset have a notably higher relative risk. A reappraisal of the case for routine antithrombotic therapy in those diagnosed with ALS now requires a randomised controlled trial.

People in community corrections are a population with unmet need for viral hepatitis care.

To reach World Health Organization elimination targets for hepatitis C, different strategies are needed to reach people who have not yet been diagnosed and treated. In the context of declining treatment initiation rates, innovation in service design and delivery is necessary: testing and treatment needs to be offered to people in non-traditional settings. The community corrections (probation and parole) population is larger than the prison population, which has high prevalence of hepatitis C and-in some countries-established diagnosis and treatment programs. In this Viewpoint we identify a gap in hepatitis C care for people under community correctional supervision, a group who have either never been imprisoned or need continuity of healthcare provided in prison. We propose that offering hepatitis C screening and treatment would benefit this population, and accelerate progress to hepatitis C elimination.

The implications of competing risks and direct treatment disutility in cardiovascular disease and osteoporotic fracture: risk prediction and cost effectiveness analysis.

Background: Clinical guidelines commonly recommend preventative treatments for people above a risk threshold. Therefore, decision-makers must have faith in risk prediction tools and model-based cost-effectiveness analyses for people at different levels of risk. Two problems that arise are inadequate handling of competing risks of death and failing to account for direct treatment disutility (i.e. the hassle of taking treatments). We explored these issues using two case studies: primary prevention of cardiovascular disease using statins and osteoporotic fracture using bisphosphonates. Objectives: Externally validate three risk prediction tools [QRISK®3, QRISK®-Lifetime, QFracture-2012 (ClinRisk Ltd, Leeds, UK)]; derive and internally validate new risk prediction tools for cardiovascular disease [competing mortality risk model with Charlson Comorbidity Index (CRISK-CCI)] and fracture (CFracture), accounting for competing-cause death; quantify direct treatment disutility for statins and bisphosphonates; and examine the effect of competing risks and direct treatment disutility on the cost-effectiveness of preventative treatments. Design, participants, main outcome measures, data sources: Discrimination and calibration of risk prediction models (Clinical Practice Research Datalink participants: aged 25-84 years for cardiovascular disease and aged 30-99 years for fractures); direct treatment disutility was elicited in online stated-preference surveys (people with/people without experience of statins/bisphosphonates); costs and quality-adjusted life-years were determined from decision-analytic modelling (updated models used in National Institute for Health and Care Excellence decision-making). Results: CRISK-CCI has excellent discrimination, similar to that of QRISK3 (Harrell's c = 0.864 vs. 0.865, respectively, for women; and 0.819 vs. 0.834, respectively, for men). CRISK-CCI has systematically better calibration, although both models overpredict in high-risk subgroups. People recommended for treatment (10-year risk of ≥ 10%) are younger when using QRISK-Lifetime than when using QRISK3, and have fewer observed events in a 10-year follow-up (4.0% vs. 11.9%, respectively, for women; and 4.3% vs. 10.8%, respectively, for men). QFracture-2012 underpredicts fractures, owing to under-ascertainment of events in its derivation. However, there is major overprediction among people aged 85-99 years and/or with multiple long-term conditions. CFracture is better calibrated, although it also overpredicts among older people. In a time trade-off exercise (n = 879), statins exhibited direct treatment disutility of 0.034; for bisphosphonates, it was greater, at 0.067. Inconvenience also influenced preferences in best-worst scaling (n = 631). Updated cost-effectiveness analysis generates more quality-adjusted life-years among people with below-average cardiovascular risk and fewer among people with above-average risk. If people experience disutility when taking statins, the cardiovascular risk threshold at which benefits outweigh harms rises with age (≥ 8% 10-year risk at 40 years of age; ≥ 38% 10-year risk at 80 years of age). Assuming that everyone experiences population-average direct treatment disutility with oral bisphosphonates, treatment is net harmful at all levels of risk. Limitations: Treating data as missing at random is a strong assumption in risk prediction model derivation. Disentangling the effect of statins from secular trends in cardiovascular disease in the previous two decades is challenging. Validating lifetime risk prediction is impossible without using very historical data. Respondents to our stated-preference survey may not be representative of the population. There is no consensus on which direct treatment disutilities should be used for cost-effectiveness analyses. Not all the inputs to the cost-effectiveness models could be updated. Conclusions: Ignoring competing mortality in risk prediction overestimates the risk of cardiovascular events and fracture, especially among older people and those with multimorbidity. Adjustment for competing risk does not meaningfully alter cost-effectiveness of these preventative interventions, but direct treatment disutility is measurable and has the potential to alter the balance of benefits and harms. We argue that this is best addressed in individual-level shared decision-making. Study registration: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42021249959. Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (NIHR award ref: 15/12/22) and is published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 12, No. 4. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Before offering a medicine to prevent disease, prescribers must expect it to do more good than harm. This balance depends on how likely it is that the person will develop the disease we want to prevent. But people might first die for other reasons. We call this a 'competing risk'. In most cases, the mathematical tools we use to estimate the chance of developing a disease do not account for competing risks. Another problem is that, when weighing up the benefits and harms of medicines, we ignore the hassle they cause patients, even when they do not cause side effects. We used two examples: statins to prevent heart disease and bisphosphonates to prevent fractures. First, we assessed if existing tools get predictions wrong by not accounting for competing risks. We found that they exaggerate the chance of heart attacks and strokes. However, the exaggeration is greatest among people who would clearly benefit from preventative treatment. So it may not change treatment decisions much. The fracture prediction tool we studied was very inaccurate, exaggerating risk among older people, but underestimating risk among younger people. We made a new fracture risk prediction tool. It gave better predictions, but it was still inaccurate for people aged > 85 years and those with several health problems. Next, we asked people questions designed to put a number on the hassle that statins and bisphosphonates cause. Most people thought that taking either is inconvenient, but the hassle factor for bisphosphonates is bigger. Finally, we updated the mathematical models that the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence used when recommending statins and bisphosphonates. We worked out if competing risks and the hassle of taking medicines make a difference to results. Statins remain a good idea for almost everyone, unless they really hate the idea of taking them. But bisphosphonates would do more harm than good for anyone who agrees with the hassle factor we found.

Injecting drug use and hepatitis C virus infection independently increase biomarkers of inflammatory disease risk which are incompletely restored by curative direct-acting antiviral therapy.

Background: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections are more prevalent in people who inject drugs (PWID) who often experience additional health risks. HCV induces inflammation and immune alterations that contribute to hepatic and non-hepatic morbidities. It remains unclear whether curative direct acting antiviral (DAA) therapy completely reverses immune alterations in PWID. Methods: Plasma biomarkers of immune activation associated with chronic disease risk were measured in HCV-seronegative (n=24) and HCV RNA+ (n=32) PWID at baseline and longitudinally after DAA therapy. Adjusted generalised estimating equations were used to assess longitudinal changes in biomarker levels. Comparisons between community controls (n=29) and HCV-seronegative PWID were made using adjusted multiple regression modelling. Results: HCV-seronegative PWID exhibited significantly increased levels of inflammatory biomarkers including soluble (s) TNF-RII, IL-6, sCD14 and sCD163 and the diabetes index HbA1c as compared to community controls. CXCL10, sTNF-RII, vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 and lipopolysaccharide binding protein (LBP) were additionally elevated in PWID with viremic HCV infection as compared to HCV- PWID. Whilst curative DAA therapy reversed some biomarkers, others including LBP and sTNF-RII remained elevated 48 weeks after HCV cure. Conclusion: Elevated levels of inflammatory and chronic disease biomarkers in PWID suggest an increased risk of chronic morbidities such as diabetes and cardiovascular disease. HCV infection in PWID poses an additional disease burden, amplified by the incomplete reversal of immune dysfunction following DAA therapy. These findings highlight the need for heightened clinical surveillance of PWID for chronic inflammatory diseases, particularly those with a history of HCV infection.

International Systematic Review of Utility Values Associated with Cardiovascular Disease and Reflections on Selecting Evidence for a UK Decision-Analytic Model.

PURPOSE: Evaluating interventions for cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires estimates of its effect on utility. We aimed to 1) systematically review utility estimates for CVDs published since 2013 and 2) critically appraise UK-relevant estimates and calculate corresponding baseline utility multipliers. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE and Embase (April 22, 2021) using CVD and utility terms. We screened results for primary studies reporting utility distributions for people with experience of heart failure, myocardial infarction, peripheral arterial disease, stable angina, stroke, transient ischemic attack, or unstable angina. We extracted characteristics from studies included. For UK estimates based on the EuroQoL 5-dimension (EQ-5D) measure, we assessed risk of bias and applicability to a decision-analytic model, pooled arms/time points as appropriate, and estimated baseline utility multipliers using predicted utility for age- and sex- matched populations without CVD. We sought utility sources from directly applicable studies with low risk of bias, prioritizing plausibility of severity ordering in our base-case model and highest population ascertainment in a sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Most of the 403 studies identified used EQ-5D (n = 217) and most assessed Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development populations (n = 262), although measures and countries varied widely. UK studies using EQ-5D (n = 29) produced very heterogeneous baseline utility multipliers for each type of CVD, precluding meta-analysis and implying different possible severity orderings. We could find sources that provided a plausible ordering of utilities while adequately representing health states. CONCLUSIONS: We cataloged international CVD utility estimates and calculated UK-relevant baseline utility multipliers. Modelers should consider unreported sources of heterogeneity, such as population differences, when selecting utility evidence from reviews. HIGHLIGHTS: Published systematic reviews have summarized estimates of utility associated with cardiovascular disease published up to 2013.We 1) reviewed utility estimates for 7 types of cardiovascular disease published since 2013, 2) critically appraised UK-relevant studies, and 3) estimated the effect of each cardiovascular disease on baseline utility.Our review 1) recommends a consistent and reliable set of baseline utility multipliers for 7 types of cardiovascular disease and 2) provides systematically identified reference information for researchers seeking utility evidence for their own context.

Point-of-care HCV RNA testing improves hepatitis C testing rates and allows rapid treatment initiation among people who inject drugs attending a medically supervised injecting facility.

BACKGROUND: To achieve hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination targets, simplified care engaging people who inject drugs is required. We evaluated whether fingerstick HCV RNA point-of-care testing (PoCT) increased the proportion of clients attending a supervised injecting facility who were tested for hepatitis C. METHODS: Prospective single-arm study with recruitment between 9 November 2020 and 28 January 2021 and follow-up to 31 July 2021. Clients attending the supervised injecting facility were offered HCV RNA testing using the Xpert® HCV Viral Load Fingerstick (Cepheid, Sunnyvale, CA) PoCT. Participants with a positive HCV RNA test were prescribed direct acting antiviral (DAA) therapy. The primary endpoint was the proportion of clients who engaged in HCV RNA PoCT, compared to a historical comparator group when venepuncture-based hepatitis C testing was standard of care. RESULTS: Among 1618 clients who attended the supervised injecting facility during the study period, 228 (14%) engaged in PoCT. This was significantly higher than that observed in the historical comparator group (61/1,775, 3%; p < 0.001). Sixty-five (28%) participants were HCV RNA positive, with 40/65 (62%) receiving their result on the same day as testing. Sixty-one (94%) HCV RNA positive participants were commenced on DAA therapy; 14/61 (23%) started treatment on the same day as diagnosis. There was no difference in the proportion of HCV RNA positive participants commenced on treatment with DAA therapy when compared to the historical comparator group (61/65, 94% vs 22/26, 85%; p = 0.153). However, the median time to treatment initiation was significantly shorter in the PoCT cohort (2 days (IQR 1-20) vs 41 days (IQR 22-76), p < 0.001). Among participants who commenced treatment and had complete follow-up data available, 27/36 (75%) achieved hepatitis C cure. CONCLUSIONS: HCV RNA PoCT led to a significantly higher proportion of clients attending a supervised injecting facility engaging in hepatitis C testing, whilst also reducing the time to treatment initiation.

Risk factors for malignancy and serious infection in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: a retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) are at increased risk of malignancy and infection compared to the general population. AIMS: We aim to identify risk factors for malignancy or serious infection in our IBD cohort. METHODS: Patients with IBD from a single tertiary referral centre were included. Demographic and clinical details, including immunosuppressant exposure, were collected and medical records retrospectively screened for adverse events, including malignancy or infection requiring hospitalisation. Logistic regression was used to evaluate risk factors for adverse events. RESULTS: Five hundred and forty-nine patients with IBD (340 Crohn disease (CD) and 209 ulcerative colitis (UC)) were studied. Forty-eight malignancies, including 39 (81.3%) non-melanoma skin cancers, 3 (6.3%) haematologic malignancies and 6 (15.4%) solid-organ malignancies, were identified, and 92 cases of serious infection were detected. IBD duration (odds ratio (OR) = 1.08; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.03-1.13) and ileocolonic CD (OR = 4.96; 95% CI = 1.13-21.71) were associated with increased odds of overall cancer. Compared with patients not previously exposed to the given class of immunosuppression assessed, the development of overall malignancy was not higher with thiopurine exposure (OR = 1.00; 95% CI = 0.50-2.24) or anti-tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) exposure (OR = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.37-1.64). Similarly, compared with patients not exposed, infection risk was not affected by thiopurine (OR = 0.74; 95% CI = 0.46-1.20) or anti-TNF exposure (OR = 0.60; 95% CI = 0.38-0.95). CONCLUSIONS: Factors including ileocolonic CD and increasing IBD duration were associated with higher malignancy risk in this cohort. Compared with non-exposure, patients exposed to thiopurines were not at increased risk of malignancy or serious infection. Similarly, patients exposed to anti-TNF treatment did not experience increased rates of malignancy or serious infection compared to patients not exposed to this treatment.

Data-independent acquisition proteomics of cerebrospinal fluid implicates endoplasmic reticulum and inflammatory mechanisms in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

While unbiased proteomics of human cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) has been used successfully to identify biomarkers of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), high-abundance proteins mask the presence of lower abundance proteins that may have diagnostic and prognostic value. However, developments in mass spectrometry (MS) proteomic data acquisition methods offer improved protein depth. In this study, MS with library-free data-independent acquisition (DIA) was used to compare the CSF proteome of people with ALS (n = 40), healthy (n = 15) and disease (n = 8) controls. Quantified protein groups were subsequently correlated with clinical variables. Univariate analysis identified 7 proteins, all significantly upregulated in ALS versus healthy controls, and 9 with altered abundance in ALS versus disease controls (FDR < 0.1). Elevated chitotriosidase-1 (CHIT1) was common to both comparisons and was proportional to ALS disability progression rate (Pearson r = 0.41, FDR-adjusted p = 0.035) but not overall survival. Ubiquitin carboxyl-terminal hydrolase isozyme L1 (UCHL1; upregulated in ALS versus healthy controls) was proportional to disability progression rate (Pearson r = 0.53, FDR-adjusted p = 0.003) and survival (Kaplan Meier log-rank p = 0.013) but not independently in multivariate proportional hazards models. Weighted correlation network analysis was used to identify functionally relevant modules of proteins. One module, enriched for inflammatory functions, was associated with age at symptom onset (Pearson r = 0.58, FDR-adjusted p = 0.005) and survival (Hazard Ratio = 1.78, FDR = 0.065), and a second module, enriched for endoplasmic reticulum proteins, was negatively correlated with disability progression rate (r = -0.42, FDR-adjusted p = 0.109). DIA acquisition methodology therefore strengthened the biomarker candidacy of CHIT1 and UCHL1 in ALS, while additionally highlighted inflammatory and endoplasmic reticulum proteins as novel sources of prognostic biomarkers.

Premorbid brain structure influences risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a disease of the motor network associated with brain structure and functional connectivity alterations that are implicated in disease progression. Whether such changes have a causal role in ALS, fitting with a postulated influence of premorbid cerebral architecture on the phenotypes associated with neurodegenerative disorders is not known. METHODS: This study considered causal effects and shared genetic risk of 2240 structural and functional MRI brain scan imaging-derived phenotypes (IDPs) on ALS using two sample Mendelian randomisation, with putative associations further examined with extensive sensitivity analysis. Shared genetic predisposition between IDPs and ALS was explored using genetic correlation analysis. RESULTS: Increased white matter volume in the cerebral hemispheres was causally associated with ALS. Weaker causal associations were observed for brain stem grey matter volume, parieto-occipital white matter surface and volume of the left thalamic ventral anterior nucleus. Genetic correlation was observed between ALS and intracellular volume fraction and isotropic free water volume fraction within the posterior limb of the internal capsule. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that premorbid brain structure, in particular white matter volume, contributes to the risk of ALS.

Management of foreign body ingestion in adults: Time to STOP and rethink endoscopy.

Background and study aims Foreign body ingestion is a common cause for Emergency Department presentation. In adults, foreign body ingestion is more common in patients with underlying psychiatric comorbidity, the elderly, alcohol intoxication, and in prisoners. This study reviewed the management of patients presenting to a tertiary hospital with foreign body ingestion. Patients and methods A retrospective review of patients presenting with foreign body ingestion to a tertiary hospital in Melbourne, Victoria, was undertaken from January 2017 to December 2021. Data collected included patient demographics, type of foreign body, length of stay, imaging modalities, management strategies, and complications. High-risk ingestion was defined as sharp objects, length >5 cm, diameter >2.5 cm, button battery and/or magnet ingestion or esophageal as per international guidelines. Results A total of 157 presentations by 63 patients with foreign body ingestion occurred between 2017 and 2021 (50% male; median age 30 years). Of the patients, 56% had underlying psychiatric comorbidities. The majority of presentations occurred in prisoners (65%). The most commonly ingested objects were batteries (23%), alleged drug-containing balloons (17%), razor blades (16%), and miscellaneous (40%). High-risk ingestion occurred in approximately two-thirds of presentations. Conservative management was the most common approach in 55% of patients. Complications, defined as perforation, bowel obstruction or fistula formation, did not occur in this cohort despite more than half presenting with high-risk ingestions. Thirty-day re-presentation rates were high (31%) and that was most common in patients with intentional ingestion, underlying mental health disorders, and a documented history of self-harm. Conclusions Conservative management for patients presenting with recurrent high-risk foreign body ingestion was safe in appropriately selected cases. Re-presentation is common and poses significant challenges for health care providers.

Improved Survival Outcomes with Surgical Resection Compared to Ablative Therapy in Early-Stage HCC: A Large, Real-World, Propensity-Matched, Multi-Centre, Australian Cohort Study.

The optimal treatment approach in very-early and early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is not precisely defined, and there is ambiguity in the literature around the comparative efficacy of surgical resection versus ablation as curative therapies for limited disease. We performed this real-world propensity-matched, multi-centre cohort study to assess for differences in survival outcomes between those undergoing resection and those receiving ablation. Patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) 0/A HCC first diagnosed between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2020 who received ablation or resection as initial treatment were included in the study. A total of 450 patients were included in the study from 10 major liver centres including two transplant centres. Following propensity score matching using key covariates, 156 patients were available for analysis with 78 in each group. Patients who underwent resection had significantly improved overall survival (log-rank test p = 0.023) and local recurrence-free survival (log rank test p = 0.027) compared to those who received ablation. Based on real-world data, our study supports the use of surgical resection in preference to ablation as first-line curative therapy in appropriately selected BCLC 0/A HCC patients.